Originally Posted by
prop
Marshal is available +3 and I think it is a solid pick.
These teams are not even, Marshal is clearly the superior team but the home field advantage is big in this one.
While Marshal only averages 18.8 points per game take a look at their opponents this year (ignore NH) they played Miami FL, West Virginia and Cincinnati. The biggest reason they've scored so few points per game has been turnovers and a lot of pre-snap penalties has done nothing to help their cause either.
While Memphis does have +0.75 turn over differential average on the season they've played sub par opponents and have a horrible defense in all areas.
Marshals offense should put up 31 points in this game.
Marshal has big time concerns on defense though but their biggest weakness is stopping the run. Thankfully the Tigers move the ball mostly through the air (but perhaps that will change against Marshal who really is absolutely horrible at stopping the run).
Another big edge to Marshal is that Memphis is playing their 3rd game in 10 days and Memphis is a Horrible 2nd half team already. The Memphis team has major major conditioning issues as their team is big time partiers who spend most their time drinking and gambling - this is a wild bunch.
Marshal has not played football since September 22 and has had plenty of time to rest and practice.
This is Memphis’s 3rd game in 10 days and they have not practiced since their game on the 27th in which they were leading 31-6 at the half but ended up losing 35-31.
I had a friend track down a member of the team to find out the scoop on exactly who Taylor Bradford was to the team. While this guy did not play he was close to everyone on the team. From what I hear he was a big time gambler (I guess he had $10K on him when he was found dead) who took teammates along on gambling sprees to casinos, he through big beer bashes etc. He was not some quiet member of the team that the players just played with. He was a friend to a lot of these guys and well known.
Disclaimer I feel I need to add seeing as I gave such a 1 sided analysis: My picks are not locks by any means. I am a full time sports bettor who spends 40 hours per week analyzing games, tracking down info etc. I don't post picks often but I decided to come to this forum because I really hate scum books and I love this site and thought it would be a cool place to hang out because of what SBR is about. I mght start posting some plays time to time, so let me describe them. A play when i say I think is solid means I think it has a 2-6% chance over the needed break even % to win. I've gone 0-8 and 8-0 many times. So be responsible, my units are 1.3% of bankroll.