[pags11]

all plays for 3 units...

Duke +9
Baylor +10
Iowa +8
Florida +10
North Carolina +8.5
Missouri -6
Northwestern +14.5

[rjt721]

I'm with you on Missouri, my only play so far.

Leaning to UNC and Florida. Hoping to get a better number with the Tar Heels, and missed out on +10 with UF, although I anticipate that number will be available again.

Good luck, pags. Keep rolling.

[austintx05]

already on baylor with you

[sirwinzalot]

On Baylor +10

on the other side with Nebraska +7, although I might try to middle it.

[LLXC]

Florida as a 10 pt doggie? Wow...

[nep1293]

Pags, I've noticed you seem to play a lot of underdogs, Is that just coincidence or do you target those games?

[austintx05]

trying to keep the questions limited...I need your read on that Georgia/Tennessee game...leaning the dawgs....let me know

[BuddyBear]

I really like the NW play you have there coach....maybe joining you shortly.

[pags11]

rjt,

thanks and good to hear regarding you being on Missouri...as far as the North Carolina game goes, I'm not sure you will see a better number than the one I posted, but I've been wrong before...to me this is a game you want to get above 7...hope you don't mind the free advice...

austin,

good to hear we are thinking alike on Baylor...

LLXC,

yep, gonna take my chances with Urban Meyer and the points and hold on in that one...

nep,

I believe I responded to a question similiar to this in last week's thread, but I'll answer it again...have been betting college football now for 23 years and it's amazing what can happen on Saturdays with a non-round ball and 18-22 year kids playing the game...that being said, I know that anything can happen and tend to look for games that give me a chance going into the fourth quarter...on a typical year, I probably play about 80% dogs and 20% favorites...there are many successful betting styles, this has just been that's worked for me over the years...

austin,

I really have no opinion on that game...I'm not real high on Tennessee, but their homefield is strong...I do like the UGA team and Richt's record as a road coach...sitting this one out...

buddy,

yeah, that one may be a head scratcher for many on Sunday night, but hopefully come Saturday it will be seen as the value play it is...

[DrLuck]

pags11,
congrats on a nice weekend... what's your take on the ksu/ku game? Wish ksu didn't beat texas that ****ed the line up, but kansas hasn't played anybody and think ksu gets revenge... don't see a letdown here due to the inter-state rival so leaning ksu... your thoughts

[TheGambler]

in my mind, it really isn't even a revenge game. the home team has won this game over the last 5 years and I look for the same thing to happen this year. on an equal playing field, Kstate is much quicker on defense and I don't believe KU has seen any of that yet. Kstate will win by a touchdown, minimum.

[tblues2005]

Kansas State does have a revenge game from last season, so they will be tough, I think that Oklahoma is a good bet also.

[pags11]

dr. luck,

thank you...as far as the Kansas vs. KSU game goes, I don't have a strong opinion of that one either...KSU is off an impressive win vs. Texas, but if you look further into the box score, the game was just as much about Texas's self destruction as it was KSU's good play...Kansas hasn't really played anyone, but those teams that they've played, they've really dominated. I have a tough time laying points in any type of rivalry game too...not going to get involved in this one...hope this helps...

[regularguy]

When I first looked at the line, I got it in my head that Baylor was favored. That's probably because it seems inconceivable that the Buffs would be favored by so much on the road, anywhere, even after their big win against Oklahoma. After a serious double-take, I see what you are talking about. Colorado favored by 10 on the road? That seems a bit much, especially in Waco. I'm with you on this one. Colorado may be able to keep their heads together and get a win, and that would say quite alot about their coaching, but I don't think they will win this one by 10 in Texas.

[STEELCURTAIN3288]

Pags I like the picks and Missouri is at 7 now good deal.

[hawk 5]

Pags, can't wait for your write up on the Iowa-Penn St. game. You have to be thinking 13-10 or something like that. Iowa could be the worst team in the Big Ten. GL, will stay away from this game in less I take the under.

[emat]

Love Missouri -6.5 or -6 as well. Don't play halves that often, but like MU -3.5 on the first half. MU starts fast and NU start slow. I will probably play both. Curious to see total here as well. Should be fairly high scoring. I would guess mid 50's at least.

[onlooker]

Hey Pags.

I am with you on one and against you on another. I also like Baylor +8.5, but I was actually leaning toward LSU -8.5.

Good luck this week.

[pags11]

regularguy,

that's how I'm seeing the Colorado vs. Baylor game as well...more to come in my write-up later this week...

steelcurtain,

yeah, I don't bet favorites very often, but Missouri is one I like...

hawk,

yeah, something like that...in a game where the winner might not reach 13 points, you aren't interested in a team that plays outstanding defense getting 8 (in a dog dominated series)?...more to come later this week about this one as well...

onlooker,

best of luck to you...

[VolinArizona]

Ugh, I was leaning the opposite on 4 of these, so I'll pass on them. Maybe follow a few of yours - you're running great!

[imgv94]

[pags11]

volin,

let me know what you decide for the week then...GL to you...

imgv,

gotta love broads...

[imgv94]

Vida is so hot.

[pags11]

alright, back to football...

[hawk 5]

Not a bad replacement

[cashflow50]

pags..how does the rutgers game seem so interesting to me. I want to jump all over it, but cant seem to make the call right now. I know Cincy has starters from last year back on this years team, but so does rutgers. And you know as well as I know that the 'revenge factor' is non evident in these games. I just think rutgers has been battle tested with maryland and ahhh maybe navy also. On the other hand, Cincy played no one other than oregon st..again no one. Maybe you might have more thoughts on this game.

[pags11]

cashflow,

I thought this game would come out more like Cincy +6, but I see why the linesmaker made it 3...I have followed the Rutgers program for 5 years now and have made a ton of money betting their games, primarlily on them as underdogs...that all being said, I have been as impressed with Brian Kelly's team as any I've watched so far this year, I think he's one of the best young coaches in the game...their defense is solid and their spread offense is run very well...I don't think this is that great of a spot for them coming off a trip to San Diego, and Rutgers having revenge...however, I couldn't make a play against them this week with Rutgers either...Rutgers is a bit overhyped in my opinion, as shown in their loss last week to Maryland...they have an excellent RB, an excellent WR (Underwood), and their QB manages the game well...they are softer on defense than last year, but are still a pretty good D...I'm just not sure they have the same "it' as they did last year, and to me Cincy does have "it"...it's a no play for me at 3.5...

[Wolfpack]

I'm with you on Florida and Iowa. Also leaning toward Missouri. Good luck to you this weekend.

Also, pags could you look at my thread for my week 6 picks and tell me what you think? Thanks in advance.

[pags11]

wolfpack,

glad to hear we are on a couple of games together...I do think Missouri brings it this weekend and exposes Nebraska...I'll head over to your thread and give you my analysis...

[taurus]

great thread, pags, and some great comments and insight here.
GL
taurus/ alias bull

[cashflow50]

cashflow,

I thought this game would come out more like Cincy +6, but I see why the linesmaker made it 3...I have followed the Rutgers program for 5 years now and have made a ton of money betting their games, primarlily on them as underdogs...that all being said, I have been as impressed with Brian Kelly's team as any I've watched so far this year, I think he's one of the best young coaches in the game...their defense is solid and their spread offense is run very well...I don't think this is that great of a spot for them coming off a trip to San Diego, and Rutgers having revenge...however, I couldn't make a play against them this week with Rutgers either...Rutgers is a bit overhyped in my opinion, as shown in their loss last week to Maryland...they have an excellent RB, an excellent WR (Underwood), and their QB manages the game well...they are softer on defense than last year, but are still a pretty good D...I'm just not sure they have the same "it' as they did last year, and to me Cincy does have "it"...it's a no play for me at 3.5...

thanks pags..If at -3 I'll make my call. 3.5 or higher no play for me. I also think that they're in a great spot IMO to cover. I'll go with the home fav that is coming off a tough loss rather than a hot road team coming from far across the country. Too much traveling.

[pags11]

taurus,

thanks my friend and GL to you this week as well...

cash flow,

sounds like a plan...keep me updated...

am working on my write-up, will post it in a couple of hours...

[pags11]

Hello Board,

Here are my plays for the week:

Duke +9

This Duke teams continues to impress, yet is still flying under the radar a bit. Last week’s performance was their best yet as they played very well on both sides of the ball. Sophomore QB Thaddeus Lewis continues to showcase his skills, which will ultimately land him a job on Sundays. For now though, he will lead Ted Roof’s squad vs. Wake Forest this weekend. I think the best two strengths of Lewis are his accuracy and mobility. The biggest improvement I saw last week with Duke, was with their defense. They appear to have as much team speed on defense as they do on offense, which should come in handy vs. a tricky Wake Forest offense. They will need to focus on QB Riley Skinner and WR Kenneth Moore. If they can limit the big/ trick plays from Wake Forest’s offense, they have a legit shot in this game. WR Eron Riley and RB Ronnie Drummer are real playmakers, as is the rest of the unsung Duke offensive squad. There’s actually a reason to get excited about Duke Football these days, and I’m not sure I could have said that before, maybe ever. I’m not a big trend guy, but I do think it’s important to note that since becoming the head coach at Wake Forest, Jim Grobe is 5-21 ATS as a favorite. Duke brings it again this week. It's Duke plus the points for me in this one.

Baylor +10

Baylor is a much improved team this year and I think this is a good spot for them. This is a make or break year for Guy Morris and I know as a coach he has certain games circled to help his team become bowl eligible. I believe this game is one of those. Colorado comes into this game fresh off an upset victory vs. Oklahoma last week, a game in which they exerted a great deal of energy. This team is full of a lot of young players, as Dan Hawkins is building a solid squad for the future. That being said, it’s tough for a young team like this to be fully ready to play again this week after they spent all week celebrating. Baylor QB Blake Szymanski has got to make better decisions than he did last week. He has 14 TD and 7 INT on the season so far and is the focal point of the offense. Defensively, Baylor’s got to contain RB Hugh Charles which I think is attainable due to Colorado’s suspect offensive line. That will leave the game in the hands of freshman QB Cody Hawkins. If this happens I really think Baylor has a shot in this one. I’m taking Baylor and the points here.

Iowa +8

Yes, Iowa is beat up offensively. Yes, they are struggling to move the football. But come on here people, they are getting over a TD in a game vs. a team that can’t move the football consistently? I’m just not buying the hype around the forums this week that Penn St. is going to kill Iowa. In fact, I see this game being a very low-scoring, hard fought battle. Iowa still has talented RB’s Albert Young and Damien Simms. While Iowa may have a tough time running the ball regularly, I look for Iowa to get them involved in the passing game. QB Jake Christensen has shown some moxy this year dealing with a great deal of adversity. He’s grown up quite a bit. On the other side of the ball, I look for Iowa’s defense to perform similarly to the way they played against Wisconsin. In watching Penn St.’s press conference this week, Coach Paterno has made it clear that he’s sticking with Anthony Morelli at QB. This is good news for Iowa backers, as I feel the Penn St. team has lost confidence in his ability to lead the offense. Lastly, I look for Iowa’s special teams come up with a couple of key plays in this one. I’m siding with Iowa and the points in what I feel will be a classic Big Ten battle.

Florida +10

All week I’ve been reading about the demise of the Florida football program. I’ve read that their defense is terrible and that LSU is going to run all over them. I’ve also read that Florida has no chance of running the football against LSU. If all of this happens, I will gladly tip my hat to those making those comments. However, I see this game very differently. First off, we are talking about the national champions here; they are not going to take this game lying down. This team is also extremely well coached, as feel Urban Meyer along with Pete Carroll are the top two head coaches in the country. I was able to watch Florida’s game last week and plain and simple, they got caught looking ahead to this game (combined with the fact that Auburn is an underrated team). Most people haven’t paid attention to the injury report in this game. WR Andre Caldwell is fully healthy for this game, which will make the Florida offense that much more potent, along with playmakers Percy Harvin and Cornelius Ingram. It’s also interesting to note, that for a team that can’t run the football that they have two players that average approximately five yards per carry (Tim Tebow 5.1 and Kestahn Moore 4.9). Defensively, I will admit that Florida is young, but they are still very talented. I’m just not sure with Matt Flynn’s ankle is healthy which has affected his mobility and accuracy. Also, I’m not sure that Ryan Perriloux waiting in the wings is a good thing as well. When you go into these types of games the offense needs to know they have one leader to look to rather than two. Also important to note, is that big play WR Early Doucet is expected to miss this game. Expect a great SEC battle in this one that goes down to the wire. I’ll take Florida and the points and hold on here.

North Carolina +8.5

I’m not sure that anyone’s noticed, but North Carolina has been playing some pretty good defense of late. I was surprised to see Miami come out over a TD favorite in this game, as I see it being a defensive, field position game. Head Coach Butch Davis is quietly building a program earlier than expected. These guys come out and compete each week, which is a sign of how high quality of a coach that Davis is (don’t forget he’s won a national championship). QB T.J. Yates is improving in his attempts to manage the offense efficiently. Hakeem Nicks continues to lead the talent trio of receivers Yates looks to get the ball to. Anthony Elzy has emerged as their top back, but North Carolina’s offensive line is going to have their hands full vs. a talented Miami defensive line. Miami is a team that is a lot more disciplined this year, but their style of play is a bit conservative. I think this will become a factor as they travel outside of the Orange bowl for the first time this season. Don’t think that Butch Davis won’t be motivated for this one, as he used to coach for the Hurricanes in his last college stint. If North Carolina can limit their turnovers and contain Miami’s running game, I think they can keep this game close well into the fourth quarter. North Carolina and the points it’s for me again in this one.


Missouri -6

I can’t begin to tell you how impressed I am with Missouri QB Chase Daniel. I’ve watched him now for a couple years and the kid can flat out play. With Andre Woodson receiving so much pub lately, I feel Daniel is now the most underrated QB in the country. He’s got two of the best tight ends in the country at his disposal, Martin Rucker and Chase Coffman. At WR, he’s got 3 excellent playmakers in William Franklin, Tommy Saunders and youngster Jeremy Maclin. Throw in talented RB Tony Temple and you’ve got one of the most explosive offenses in the country. Defense hasn’t been a specialty of Nebraska so far this year, combine with the fact that this is only Nebraska’s second road game of the season (first conference road game), means things could become very difficult for Nebraska in this game right out of the gate. Missouri’s home field is also one of the more underrated home fields ATS in the country, and it's also important to note that Missouri had two weeks to prepare for this game. Missouri's weakness on defense is with their run defense. However, if they can build an early lead and force Nebraska to play catch-up, it might not be so much of a factor. Reports I have read this week, say that top WR Purify may not play for Nebraska (due to the death of his girlfriend). This could really hurt Sam Keller’s big play ability, which the Nebraska offense is going to need to stay up with Missouri’s offense. I’ll admit that Gary Pinkel’s not my favorite coach in the world, but I like Bill Callahan even less. Heck, at least Pinkel’s a better play caller. Laying the lumber (yes, you are reading this right) in this game with Missouri.

Northwestern +14.5

I’m trying to figure out how MSU continues to get so much love, when I saw a team last week with a lot of holes. Yes, they have two talented RB’s, a good TE, and a good WR. Defensively, they have a good defensive line. However, their secondary and line backing corps really struggled last week vs. Wisconsin. Also, QB Brian Hoyer tends to hold onto the ball too long, which could lead to some problems when laying over two TD’s to a scrappy conference foe. CJ Bache is one of the more underrated QB’s in the Big Ten, and although RB Tyrell Sutton won’t play this week, veteran Brandon Roberson and newcomer Omar Conteh have picked up the slack quite nicely. Bache has four WR’s with over 14 catches each, which is the sign of a well-run spread offense. The bottom line for me in this game is that I just can’t justify a team with the liabilities MSU has, to be laying such a large number to Northwestern in this game. This is the time of the year when strange things start to happen, and I really think Northwestern can give them a good run in this game. If Mark Dantonio does take an early lead, he has a tendency (as he did at Cincinnati) to sit on the lead. If he does this, it could spell trouble for MSU backers. I’ll take Northwestern, the veteran QB and the points here.

Good luck to all.

pags11

[tblues2005]

pags I do like your Duke play this week vs. Wake Forest. Both teams are horrible and Duke is at home so I am going with them. I like Missouri because I think they have had two weeks to get ready for Nebraska so they should be prepared for them, you never know about Pinkel but I think he will have his team ready to play Saturday at home.

[pags11]

tblues,

glad we see things the same way on a couple of games...GL to you this weekend...