I will be looking at some of the early games of the season in this thread. While the odds are still unknown for these games, and will be for a few more months, there still is plenty of things to look at. The first game I will look at is on 9/4. Washington at BYU. Probable favorite: BYU.
This should be a great game. Flash back two years to September, 2008. A BYU team expected to compete with Utah and TCU for the MWC Championship travels to Seattle to face a Washington team expected to finish near the bottom of the Pac 10 and fire HC Willingham. BYU is a 8 1/2 point favorite. Trailing 28-21 with time running out, Washington's young QB, Jake Locker marches the Huskies down the field and leads them to a potential game tying T.D. Huskie Stadium erupts. Locker erupts. The refs erupt, and nail Locker and the Huskies for a celebration penalty. The 15 yards is costly, as the Huskies miss the PAT and fall, 28-27. That is as close as Washington came to winning a game in 2008.
Well, Locker is still the QB at Washington and you can bet he has not forgotten that game. This time the Huskies go into the game with a total of 10 starters returning on offense and 8 on defense. HC Steve Sarkisian has brought the winning spirit over from USC. He beat USC last season. Washington also likes to start off well ATS. They are 3-0 ATS in their last 3 non-con openers. Last years 6-4 ATS record as a dog was a complete reversal of their 2008 effort. The Huskies are considered a decent outside shot for winning the Pac 10 title, and almost a certainty to return to a bowl game, their first since 2002.
BYU is the team getting little, if no respect in the MWC. They also are very motivated to beat a Pac 10 team. Any Pac 10 team. BYU has been basically snubbed by the Pac 10 as a potential candidate to join the conference. BYU is also the forgotten MWC team of late, with Utah and TCU grabbing all the headlines. The Cougars return 7 starters on offense, but lose QB Hall. They only return 4 on defense. In the past two seasons, BYU is 4-6 ATS as a HF, and 2-4 ATS against the Pac 10 in the past 3 years.
This will be a critical early test for both of these teams. BYU is hoping to prove that last year's 24 point rout over Oregon State in the Las Vegas Bowl was no fluke. Washington wants revenge for their very controversial loss to BYU two years ago in Seattle. Our early guess: Washington covers, especially if this game goes off at BYU -3.5 or more.
Good read. Going into the season, I like Washington a lot. They've got some holes, but I think Locker will dominate the Pac-10 this season. This is definitely an early season game to watch.
To quickly answer a question posed to me by Terrapin, I an a USC grad,but I follow all 120 team equally. My gaming group has a huge computer that we are constantly feeding information into. Since one of my rules is "wager with your head, not your heart", I never wager on any game involving USC.
Motoring along...Concinnati vs Fresno State, on 9/4.
This is a very important early season match up. Cincinnati is the defending Big East Champion, and desperately looking for some respect, as is the entire conference. Cincinnati was destroyed by Florida in the Sugar Bowl last year, and was very fortunate to beat Pitt. They lose their HC. Butch Jones takes over the command, and he welcoms back 6 starters on offense, and 5 on defense. While QB Pike is gone, last years back-up, Zack Collaros played admirably in Pikes absence last year. Look for very little, if any drop off in the offense. The defense returns 5 starters, and was, to put it mildly, a disaster late last season, giving up 131 points in their final 3 games. The Bearcats also lost their last 5 games ATS.
Fresno State has an attitude that complements their nickname, that being "Bulldogs". This team is afraid to play no one. Longtime HC Pat Hill welcomes back 7 starters on offense and 9 on defense. Like Cincinnati, Fresno State rarely has a problem scoring points, but their defense is another story. They gave up 167 points in the last 4 games of last season. Last season, Fresno State lost to Wisconsin by 3 points and Cincinnati by 8, both games on the road.
Now on paper, this looks like a dream for the totals players. Two teams with great offenses, and defenses that leave a lot to be desired. What one has to watch out for is how high the total is set. Last year, the final score between these two teams was 28-20. Both teams seem to play their best defense early in the season. While Fresno State has had some success ATS vs non-con teams, they are terrible at home ATS, going 3-16-1 in their last 4 seasons. Cincinnati has fared decently on the road, going 14-13-1 in the same time period. Look for Cincy to be a slight favorite, and the total to be much higher than the 48 points scored in last year's game. Use caution before jumping on the Fresno State/Over bandwagon. Fresno State's reputation is bigger than their actual results.
Another Big East team on the road, trying to find itself, against a team who'se entire season may well depend on how they fare in their first two games. UConn fought thru tremendous adversity last year with the murder of CB Jasper Howard, upset Notre Dame in South Bend, won their bowl game, and finished with a very respectable 8-5 record. A lot of starters who fought thru that adversity return, including 8 on offense, which became much more consistant near the end of the season. The defense returns 7 starters, but lacked consistancy last season. UConn will be a tough team to figure out at the begining of the season because no one really knows how far emotion carried them last season, and they will not have that emotion to carry them this season.
There is absolutely no question that Michigan Coach Rich Rodriguez's little tush is directly on the hot seat this season. His first two years have been nothing short of a disaster, failing to hit the .500 mark in both seasons, and failing to get to a bowl game twice. Last year, Michigan won teir first 4 games, only to fall on their collective tails and finish the season 1-7. This year, they bring back 7 starters on an offense that was very inconsistant, scoring 63points one week, and being held to 10 the following week. There may well be a battle at the QB position, where Tate Forcier aparently did not satisfy RR and back up Robinson did. The defense was, in a word, terrible, but does return 8 starters. This unit gave up 30 or more points 7 times last season, and that is simply not going to get the job done. Major improvment is needed by this group.
From a wagering standpoint, it is important not to let your memory play tricks on you. Everyone remembers Michigan's losses to App State and Oregon at home, and their atrocious ATS record at home in '08, but last season, the Wolverines actually won and covered all 3 of their lined non-con home games. Still, Michigan is 1-4 ATS in their last 5 home openers, which also happened to be their season openers. Uconn, which plays 5 non-con games a year, is 4-3 on the road against non-con teams. Look for an opening line of Michigan -7, or perhaps a bit higher. YOu may want to keep in mind that last season, 8 of UConns 12 regular season games were decided by 7 points or less, and 5 of Michigans games were decided by the same margin. Watch the line closely in this one.
UCLA at Kansas State on 9/4. An interesting midpack matchup between the Pac 10 and Big 12. This is a very important game, because both schools have testing schedules this season. UCLA still has trips to Texas, Cal, Oregon, and Washington staring them in the face, as well as home games vs USC, Stanford, and Arizona. They finally got into a bowl game last season, but only because of an Army loss. Still, they did beat a fairly good Temple team in some miserable weather in D.C. UCLA brings back 8 starters on offense, inclding QB Price. The big question is can he, and the rest of the team stay healthy? They lose 6 starters on defense, including critical losses on the line. UCLA will have to pick it up on offense this year. Last season they were held to under 24 points in 8 of their games, and under 20 in 6 of those games. The defense will be hard pressed to match last year's output.
Kansas State played a rather soft schedule last year, and even though they finished at 6-6, they were ineligable for bowl competition because they played two FCS teams, and only one of those wins counts towards a bowl game. Kansas State finished 4-4 in the Big 12, and were difinately Jeckell and Hyde. They won big, and lost big. This year, recycled HC Snyder returns 7 on offense, including his starting backfield and the right side of the line. 6 starters return on defense. Kansas State is going to have to overcome their inconsistancy problems both on offense and defense.
This is not a game that should be overlooked by the gambler. UCLA is 10-1 ATS in their opening games. (5-0 in their last 5) Kansas State is a team rebuilding from years of fustration (1 bowl game in their past 6 seasons) and expects to return to copetitiveness in the Big 12 North. In order to do that, they must prove themselves against the likes of UCLA. UCLA is the "other" team in Los Angeles, with USC getting all the attention. What is a pretty good kept secret is that UCLA is 11-4 ATS vs non-con teams in the past 5 seasons. There may be a very good opportunity for an early score here for the gamblers, especially if K-State is favored by more than 3 points.
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