[rjt721]

Sides: 6-5-1, +3.52
Totals: 4-1, +2.9
ML: 0-1, -1.00
YTD: 10-7-1, +5.42

3* Texas A&M +3: I think the wrong team is favored here. If there’s one thing UM has proven thus far in Randy Shannon’s first season, it’s that the defense has taken a significant step back, while the offense remains equally inept, both with Kyle Wright and Kirby Freeman at the helm. So why is UM a slight favorite against an A&M team that should legitimately contend with Oklahoma and UT atop the Big 12? Reputation is the only thing I can come up with, as Miami remains one of the preeminent “names” in college football. However, that doesn’t change the fact that a rebuilding UM team is outclassed in this match up.

The most eye-opening aspect of UM’s blowout loss at Oklahoma was the ease with which the Sooners moved the ball. There’s no shame in getting blown out to OU, who I have ranked as the second best team in the country, but it became apparent to me that Miami lacks the athletes on defense that the program’s become accustomed to, and I expect them to have serious trouble stopping A&M’s well-balanced attack.

A&M’s offense, featuring dual-threat QB Stephen McGee, and the best tandem of running backs outside of Arkansas, will pose problems for any team, and I don’t anticipate Miam’s defense being up to the task of stopping the Aggies from moving the ball, particularly on the ground, where A&M has two legitimate big-play options – McGee and RB Mike Goodson, as well as 280 lb. RB Jorvorskie Lane to finish off drives inside the red zone.

A&M’s defense is a bit of a concern, as they let Fresno St. back in the game after jumping out to a seemingly comfortable 19-0 lead, but UM won’t have the same success running the ball that they had against Marshall and FIU. This will force Kyle Wright to make plays through the air to get the offense going, and that’s something he’s consistently proven he’s incapable of doing during his time with the Hurricanes.

I’ll take the 3 points and the significantly better offense in a game I envision Texas A&M winning outright, likely by double digits.


Will add more plays later in the week.

[Crispybear]

With Miami's difficulties on offense and FIU's 150+ rushing yards, I thought Texas A&M would have to lay points.

* Miami beat Marshall, which then lost to New Hampshire

* Miami wasn't even close to covering against FIU

Initially I was thinking about taking Miami at home and the +5 to 7 points I thought they would get.

2 factors are stopping me from jumping all over T A&M right now:

1. This will be Texas A&M's 1st road game of the year and it' a short week

2. Can Texas A&M 's Dual Threat QB throw the ball? In last year's Holiday Bowl, CAL shut down the pass and used its speed to demolish T A&M.

Thought?

[BuddyBear]

No idea here. During the summer I had this pegged this game in the +7 range give or take a point. But clearly Miami's slow start has caused this line to shift in such a way that if you take TXAM you are pretty much banking on them to win this game outright.

Remember, Miami is still a proud program and their defense is still very solid. The Oklahoma game is a bit misleading. Miami was competitive for some time before the avalance began. Recall, last year they played a very good Boston College team on Thanksgiving day and won that game so we may see something similar.

I just don't have much of an opinion yet

[rjt721]

2 factors are stopping me from jumping all over T A&M right now:

1. This will be Texas A&M's 1st road game of the year and it' a short week

2. Can Texas A&M 's Dual Threat QB throw the ball? In last year's Holiday Bowl, CAL shut down the pass and used its speed to demolish T A&M.

Thought?

I'm not really worried about the short week. With the nationally televised Thursday start against such a prestigious program like Miami, there's no excuse for the players not to be excited and ready to go.

I do think McGee can be effective throwing the ball. He's probably more comfortable rolling out of the pocket, where he has the option of either taking off and running or looking for receivers downfield, but he's more than capable of putting the ball in the air, IMO. He was pretty solid in that regard last season, and everything I read on A&M throughout the offseason focused on how impressive and improved McGee was as a passer.

That bowl game you mentioned against Cal was actually a competitive game at the half, and McGee looked pretty good throwing the ball. Cal opened it up in the second half and went on to win big, as they just destroyed A&M running the ball, and A&M's certainly not suited to come back from a large deficit, but Miami doesn't come anywhere near approaching last season's Cal squad in terms of explosiveness and talent on offense.

Good luck.

[imgv94]

I like A&M as well. Better team for sure.

[onlooker]

Man, I had a lean toward Miami and now you got me thinking twice about it. Maybe I will just throw it out.

[rjt721]

2* New Mexico St. +17 (-105): Given the state of Auburn’s inept offense, 17 pts. is entirely too many for the Tigers to be giving, even against a middle-of-the-road team from the WAC. QB Chase Holbrook, the fourth leading passer in D1-A, and NMSU’s offense, arguably the best in the conference outside of Hawaii, will put up points in this game, and although the Aggies’ suspect defense provides Auburn’s best chance to have a breakout offensive performance, I don’t think Brandon Cox or freshman QB Kodi Burns (whoever gets the nod as the starter this week) are capable of scoring enough to cover this generous number. It wouldn’t at all surprise me if NMSU is competitive in this game deep into the 4th Q.

[pags11]

rtj,

always enjoy your insight...I'll be sitting on the sidelines in regards to both weeknight games...even in a blowout, I am a little concerned about the ammount of rushing yards Texas A&M gave up last week...they are a talented team, but the number in this one doesn't warrant a play for me...

[EBone]

Sides: 6-5-1, +3.52
Totals: 4-1, +2.9
ML: 0-1, -1.00
YTD: 10-7-1, +5.42

3* Texas A&M +3: I think the wrong team is favored here. If there’s one thing UM has proven thus far in Randy Shannon’s first season, it’s that the defense has taken a significant step back, while the offense remains equally inept, both with Kyle Wright and Kirby Freeman at the helm. So why is UM a slight favorite against an A&M team that should legitimately contend with Oklahoma and UT atop the Big 12? Reputation is the only thing I can come up with, as Miami remains one of the preeminent “names” in college football. However, that doesn’t change the fact that a rebuilding UM team is outclassed in this match up.

The most eye-opening aspect of UM’s blowout loss at Oklahoma was the ease with which the Sooners moved the ball. There’s no shame in getting blown out to OU, who I have ranked as the second best team in the country, but it became apparent to me that Miami lacks the athletes on defense that the program’s become accustomed to, and I expect them to have serious trouble stopping A&M’s well-balanced attack.

A&M’s offense, featuring dual-threat QB Stephen McGee, and the best tandem of running backs outside of Arkansas, will pose problems for any team, and I don’t anticipate Miam’s defense being up to the task of stopping the Aggies from moving the ball, particularly on the ground, where A&M has two legitimate big-play options – McGee and RB Mike Goodson, as well as 280 lb. RB Jorvorskie Lane to finish off drives inside the red zone.

A&M’s defense is a bit of a concern, as they let Fresno St. back in the game after jumping out to a seemingly comfortable 19-0 lead, but UM won’t have the same success running the ball that they had against Marshall and FIU. This will force Kyle Wright to make plays through the air to get the offense going, and that’s something he’s consistently proven he’s incapable of doing during his time with the Hurricanes.

I’ll take the 3 points and the significantly better offense in a game I envision Texas A&M winning outright, likely by double digits.


Will add more plays later in the week.

Some thoughts:

After looking pretty hard at this game, I'm a bit borderline. I would play A&M or nothing at all. I agree with pags' concern about the rushing yards relinquished last week versus ULM which intertwines with my other concern; A&M playing 4 focused quarters. If you watched any of the Fresno-A&M game, you know what I'm talking about. A&M needs to put together a full game. You would think a national television game on ESPN would keep their focus for a full 4 quarters. I am, however, convinced that Miami-Florida is worse than expected (maybe 4th best in the state behind Fla, S Fla and Fla St) but they could come out with an inspired effort against the unfocused version of A&M. I may be wrong on this point, but I don't think speed is the major concern for A&M. Their own internal focus should be their main concern.




E

[bradleysnyder]

I Like A&M A Lot

[rjt721]

pags and EBone,

I agree with you, the run defense is a bit of a concern, but ULM's running game, led by Calvin Dawson, is quite good, and a good portion of the rushing yardage came well into the second half against A&M's second-team defense when the game was already out of hand. Being that the outcome of the game was never in doubt, there probably wasn't the same sense of urgency to stop the run on every play, and hopefully that's something that will be corrected with a nationally televised game against a big-name program like UM.

Stopping the run should be the no. 1 priority against UM, as Wright hasn't proven he's a much of a threat throwing the ball, so I anticipate a much better effort.

EBone, I agree with you in regard to this particular Miami team - it's probably the weakest team they've had since early in Butch Davis' tenure.

If A&M does "keep their focus for a full 4 Q," as you say, I think they win this game comfortably. Now, whether they will play a full game remains to be seen, but certainly playing on ESPN against Miami will have the players more focused than at any point thus far this season. At least I hope so.

Good luck to both of you.

[pags11]

rtj,

excellent point, I hadn't thought of that...I will say in regards to Thursday's game, that there's no way I could play Miami...GL again to you...

[Crispybear]

How about the under? The O/U is 47...

with Miami being favored by 3, that means the predicted score is 25-22....

I don't see Miami putting up 25 points. They struggled against FIU at the OB whose marred in a 15 game losing streak.

Both of their QB's have completion & hovering 50%. You would think K. Wright can light up FIU, but he went 10 of 19i with a TD and 3 turnovers...

Both of their wins are over 0-3 teams that have been getting crushed everywhere else....

[Razz]

The problem is that NMST is going to have to score on virtually every possession to keep the game close. Auburn's secondary is the weak link, but it's still the best Holbrook has ever seen, and the defensive line is scary good.

Auburn offense will score at will. The Tigers' stable of backs will run wild on that defense, and take away 10 turnovers the past two weeks, and AUB is easily 3-0. I'm thinking reports of their demise are greatly exaggerated.

[BuddyBear]

I highly disagree with the characterization that NMSU is a middle of the road WAC team. They are a bottom tier WAC team who has a lot of potential this year to do some good things (i.e. get to a bowl game).

[bmac]

I have to agree with Buddy here.... They have a lot to play for this year. Being one of the lower programs in the devision they will be striving for that bowl game opportunity.

[rjt721]

I highly disagree with the characterization that NMSU is a middle of the road WAC team. They are a bottom tier WAC team who has a lot of potential this year to do some good things (i.e. get to a bowl game).

I'm well aware they've been a bottom tier team in the WAC the last two years. The "middle-of-the-road" comment is reflected in where I project NMSU finishing in the conference standings this season - in the middle of the pack. I think they have a good opportunity to win 4 conference games this year.

How about the under? The O/U is 47...

with Miami being favored by 3, that means the predicted score is 25-22....

I don't see Miami putting up 25 points. They struggled against FIU at the OB whose marred in a 15 game losing streak.

Both of their QB's have completion & hovering 50%. You would think K. Wright can light up FIU, but he went 10 of 19i with a TD and 3 turnovers...

Both of their wins are over 0-3 teams that have been getting crushed everywhere else....

I agree with you that it will be difficult for Miami to put up 25. I'm not playing the total, as I anticipate a 34-20 type score in the Aggies favor. I was considering the Miami team total under 26 (now 24.5 at Greek) a few days ago, but decided to pass. Tough total to project because if both teams have success running the ball, the total should sail well over.

[rjt721]

2* Kentucky/Arkansas OVER 67

2* Washington/UCLA UNDER 47.5

[VolinArizona]

I Like A&M A Lot

Miami it is...

[rjt721]

1* Utah St. Team Total UNDER 24.5 (-115)

[pags11]

NMSU defense can stop no one and Holbrook is having some problems right now with INT's...slight lean to Auburn in this one...

[rjt721]

Adding:

2* South Carolina +18.5 (many thanks to Dr. Bob for this number)
1* Michigan ML +125

Final card:

3* Texas A&M +3
2* NMSU +17 (-105)
2* South Carolina +18.5
2* Kentucky/Arkansas OVER 67
2* UCLA/Washington UNDER 47.5
1* Utah St. Team Total UNDER 24.5 (-115)
1* Michigan ML +125

Good luck everyone.

[EBone]

Starting to really like So. Carolina, rjt. Haven't pulled the trigger yet. May just watch this line for a day or so.



E

[BuddyBear]

GL with USC i kind of like them too and feel their defense and coaching can keep them in this game and am a bit surprised by how high the line is but in no way would I be eager to pick against Dr. Bob in this situation. Of course he loses his fair share of plays and what not, but he presents a very strong rationale for his selection(s). Put it this way, I rather be with him than against him but what's done is done I guess.

Good luck....

[rjt721]

4-3, -1.35

Ytd: 14-10-1, +4.07