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Pags' Plays, 10/13 & 10/15
Pags commissioned me to do his writing this week (for reasons that don't need to be explained on this page), so here are the games he is playing, the lines he received, and my thoughts. Understand that I don't have the same plays, though my card is similar.
I appreciate the comments from everyone like, "Glad to see you're back". But the truth of the matter is that from the middle of August to the end of November, I'm swamped and don't have the time and/or mental energy to be posting on an online forum nearly as much as the rest of the year. So if I disappear for long stretches over the next couple months, don't think twice about it. If you really need something, ask GV or Pags or BuddyBear for my e-mail address.
Anyway, on to what most of you really care about, week three plays from the immortal pags11:
Thursday
Air Force Academy +8
No matter how good your defense, it’s tough to lay 8 points on the road with an impotent offense. That’s the case here, and when you add in the letdown from the Texas game/BCS possibility that TCU may have been thinking about at halftime, this could be a really tough spot for the Horned Frogs.
The defense basically gave TCU a 10-0 halftime lead last week, but QB Dalton looked lost against an average Texas defense. There’s obviously a step down in class, but the AFA rush defense has been strong (71.5 ypg), so all signs indicate Dalton will have to make some plays for TCU to cover this number.
On the other side of the ball, Carney is a guy Pags and I both love, and he leads a very good AFA rushing offense (306.5 ypg). It’s always hard to prepare for this type of offense, but especially on a short week, so this one stays within the number.
TCU 24, AFA 21
Saturday
Tennessee +8
I have a very hard time understanding how Tennessee is a bigger underdog to Florida than California. That’s laughable on so many levels.
I’ve been very surprised at how well the Tennessee offense is moving the ball. I liked Foster and Coker before the season, but I really thought Ainge would struggle as the Vols replaced their key receivers. Instead, last week he had two receivers put up over 100 yards receiving against a very good Southern Miss defense. In fact, this is the least experienced and perhaps worst defense that Tennessee has faced this year - I mean, Omar Haugabrook is a hell of a player, but you can’t give up 31 points to Troy - and the Vols have scored 70 points in their first two games.
I really want to see Tim Tebow play four solid quarters against an SEC defense. Maybe he’s able to do so. By the end of the year I think he will be among the elite QBs in the SEC. But right now he has played two sisters of the poor, and the step up in class is pronounced. To make matters worse, he’s without his best receiver, and Percy Harvin is hampered by injury as well.
Tennesse 31, Florida 28
Fresno State +16.5
Oregon continues to impress everyone but me. Sure, I've been a bit surprised that Dixon is playing so well, but let's be honest. Oregon could be 0-2 right now. What? They won by 21 and 32 points! Well, Houston went to Oregon and out-gained the Ducks by 100 yards, and Michigan played Oregon dead even statistically until Henne left the game. I mean, their defense is atrocious, they just capitalized on Houston turnovers and Michigan's ineptitude.
Pat Hill is a huge step up in class from both Briles and Carr, and he's been one of the best underdog coaches in college football for years. I think his team last week proved it has responded from the disgraceful performance a year ago, and Brandstater looked very composed against a much better defense than the one he'll see Saturday.
It's an odd situation, as both teams may be flat, but I'll take the better coach and the juicy points.
Oregon 38, Fresno State 30
Washington +4
I think Pags and I are in agreement that Ohio State is a false favorite in this game. Washington faced a better running game last week than this week, and they shut down Ian Johnson. Boeckman is a disaster, and not equipped to make this cross-country trip and lead OSU to a road win.
If Locker avoids mistakes, Ty should have the Huskies 3-0.
Washington 24, Ohio State 17
Kentucky +7.5
This is a tough game for me. In the preseason, I was saying that Kentucky +11 or so would be something worth playing in this game. However, Louisville’s shambolic defense last week leads to this line being a bit lower than anticipated, so I’m not making this play. But Pags is.
I think it’s safe to assume there will be plenty of points scored in this game. The arsenal of weapons that these QBs have at their disposal is as strong as what you'll see anywhere in the country this weekend.
For as good as Brian Brohm is, Andre Woodson is right there with him. He’s actually less likely to turn the ball over (0 INTs last 206 attempts), and Pags feels that the home crowd and points are worth more than what firepower advantage Louisville may have.
I don't really have anything else to say. The bottom line is that Pags believes that this number is enough to justify a play. I don’t totally disagree, but I’d rather trust my money elsewhere.
Louisville 38, Kentucky 31
Boston College +7
Another play I’m not on, but this one I like a bit more. True, the Eagles were fortunate to cover last week, but they still are allowing 1.2 ypr this year. That’s pretty important against Tashard Choice, and especially since Taylor Bennett is yet to face a legitimate defense - oh, and he managed 0 TDs in his first two games, against much weaker opposition than he’ll face in this one.
Georgia Tech’s defense is tough as well, and even though it’s HC Jadgozinski first road game, he has the perfect QB taking the field in Ryan, who is a great decision maker and not likely to be frustrated by Tenuta’s blitz schemes.
Georgia Tech 20, Boston College 17
Nebraska +10
Last year in this matchup, Bill Callahan coached not to be embarrassed by SC. And with good reason. There was a large talent gap and the game was in LA. Those things are no longer the case, and Callahan won’t play it close to the vest this week.
I actually believe Nebraska’s offense is much more suited to make plays in this game, as its skill players have played in more big games than SC’s skill players. Keller wants a chance to atone for the worst game of his career - to the extent that he says one of the major reasons he came to Nebraska was because SC was on the schedule - and he should have some success against an SC defense that is very good, but far from the premier defense in college football, as some are ridiculously claiming. Marlon Lucky will be the best back on the field.
SC’s offense showed no explosiveness against a horrible week one opponent, and that was already a concern for the esoteric among us. While it's always difficult to gather a lot of information from that type of game, I think Callahan saw it and realized he doesn't have to be conservative.
As previously mentioned, most of the Trojans’ key players have never played - at least not extended minutes as go-to players - in an environment anywhere near what they’ll face Saturday night.
Pags thinks this will be a close, hard-fought game that is decided in the closing minutes. I don’t.
Nebraska 31, USC 20
Tulsa +7
After much deliberation, this was a game I passed, but I do think the number is generous here. Todd Graham and Paul Smith are as good a coach/QB combination as you’ll find outside the top ten teams in America. That’s always a nice combination for a home dog.
If you look at what Graham did when Chase Clement was healthy last year - namely win four consecutive games outright as underdogs - you’ll start to respect him as much as we do.
But BYU is a legit team. They deserved to beat UCLA last week in LA (I would have broken my TV if I had bet BYU in that game, and it was the last game off my card). QB Hall is putting up similar numbers to Beck - 391 at a UCLA team that has everybody back from a good defense a year ago can’t be overlooked.
What I’m trying to say is that Be White can go to Tulsa and win comfortably if the breaks go in their favor. But Graham seems to always find a way to make things go his way in this type of game.
Tulsa 28, BYU 27
Pags, correct me on any lines I didn't post correctly. My phone is dead, you didn't answer my e-mail, and I wanted to go ahead and post this since you played a Thursday game.
Good luck this week everyone.
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Originally Posted by bigboydan
Good job Pags atleast to get some back.
