[BuddyBear]

First week of NCAAF betting was miserable at 2-7, last week terrific at 7-2. That makes me 9 and 9 and I guess just average. With a positive outlook though I guess I am starting to hit my stride. I have 8 games this week....so hoping for 5-3. Anyone who wants to discuss them let me know I'd be more than happy to explain my reasoning behind each pick. Best of luck to everyone this week with their bets.


104 Air Force +8 (win)
133 Tennessee +8 (loss)
141 Pittsburgh +9.5 (win)
144 Washington +4 (loss)
168 Georgia Tech -7 (loss)
174 Nebraska + 10 (loss)
176 New Mexico State -6.5 (loss)
194 Texas A&M -24 (win)

[dante1]

Good luck buddy, hit them all. Especially Tenn and
Wash, the two I like. (lol)

[Hemlock21]

I actually like USC to cover in that one.


GL

[bigboydan]

I'm still feeling the sting from New Mexico State last weekend double B. However, I'm rolling with them once again this week myself.

BOL

[pags11]

buddy,

congrats again on a great week last week...thanks for all of your thoughts in putting together this week's card as well..BOL to you this week my friend...

[EBone]

Pittsburgh and New Mexico State jumped out at me this week. New Mex State, in part, because I believe UTEP is a sham. Pitt because of the absolute collapse in the 2nd half last year at home versus Mich State. Pitt may be a bit better than what I think and Mich State plays their 3rd home game in a row and this is a sandwich game with the heartbreaker Mich State suffered last year against ND. I'm sure Mich State will be looking ahead. Pitt should be more motivated to win this game in my humble opinion.



E

[BuddyBear]

Thanks for the comments guys.

I did not do a very good job of getting lines. In fact, in 5 of the 8 games I am taking the worst of it with the line but playing at Matchbook has helped a lot by laying reduced juice.

I am very concerned about Pitt. To me both teams are not very good and even as an MSU alum I am willing to bet against them. They have been one of the worst ATS teams the past 7 years (32-49 ATS). They should not be laying this many points in my opinion to Pitt even though Pitt sucks too. MSU may be able to cruise against a bottom feeder like UAB and move the ball agaisnt a MAC school but Pitt does have some talent. This is a revenge game too for Pitt. I like their chances but wish I could have snagged +10 or +11 if I had been more patient....i guess I did better than +8 but not really much better.

To me, NMSU is a much better team than UTEP here. At home, and UTEP off a tough cover against TT this sets up well for NMSU. NMSU should have no problem moving the ball against this UTEP defense like both NM and TT already have...I don't think UTEP can match scores with Holbrook and company. I see a 52-35 type score here.

[BuddyBear]

I am also very shocked money is coming in on ULM. Clearly TXAM is better and the fact that Clemson was -27 against this same ULM team and Clemson moved the ball at will with a QB making only his 2nd career start and both James Davis and C.J. Spiller both had less than 100 yds apiece and Clemson was in a major letdown situation and Clemson was sitll up in the 4th quarter 49-13. This even with ULM having 2 100 yd rushers of their own.

I don't see how Clemson can be -27 and TXAM open only -24. I can see AM much more focused after last week's near upset. I don't lay this type of chalk often but there is no way McGee, Lane, and Goodson can't run all over this defense and score at will. To me, if ULM covers this spread it will be through the backdoor.

[area51steve]

Buddy.. just wondering what your thoughts are on the
osu/washington game. I'm liking washington to win this game outright.

[austintx05]

gl buddy

[onlooker]

I am with you on New Mexico State -5 and Georgia Tech -6.5.

Good luck with the rest of your games.

[BuddyBear]

Buddy.. just wondering what your thoughts are on the
osu/washington game. I'm liking washington to win this game outright.

Well my selection is Washington. When the line first opened up I thought clearly that OSU was the right side. To me, Washington's wins seemed rather phoney b/c they beat a very bad Syracuse team and a very overreated Boise St team. I thought this game similar to that of Alabama/Vanderbilt where Vand was a trendy dog but a big talent differential.

But after going through the box scores and doing some of my own research and discussions with others on here I arrived at the conclusion that Washington was the right side. First, they have a solid defense that should keep them in the game. Second, they have enough playmakers to move the ball. I expect it to be a struggle at times but their QB Lockler (?) seems capable in this spot. Third, they are at home and OSU is making a cross country trip and the Big Ten's travels out West are well documented. In fact, I think Indiana going into Oregon a few years ago is the last time a Big Ten school went into a Pac 10 stadium and won. Fourth, OSU just has not impressed yet. Their QB looks shakey at best right now and it seems that OSU is going through a major transition this year on offense. They just don't have any fluidity on offense. Finally, I've been a big ten fan all my life and watch the conference closely and it is clear that the conference as a whole is down. MICH getting blown out twice, WISC life and death against UNLV, Iowa struggling with N.Illinois, Minn losing to a MAC school and going to OT with another one...and now money coming in on FAU like crazy against them, etc.....

I am not ready to back the Big Ten in this game. This to me has the makings of an upset. I think, personally, if UW covers this game there is a very good probability that they also win it straight up.

Good luck this weekend Steve.

[area51steve]

Well my selection is Washington. When the line first opened up I thought clearly that OSU was the right side. To me, Washington's wins seemed rather phoney b/c they beat a very bad Syracuse team and a very overreated Boise St team. I thought this game similar to that of Alabama/Vanderbilt where Vand was a trendy dog but a big talent differential.

But after going through the box scores and doing some of my own research and discussions with others on here I arrived at the conclusion that Washington was the right side. First, they have a solid defense that should keep them in the game. Second, they have enough playmakers to move the ball. I expect it to be a struggle at times but their QB Lockler (?) seems capable in this spot. Third, they are at home and OSU is making a cross country trip and the Big Ten's travels out West are well documented. In fact, I think Indiana going into Oregon a few years ago is the last time a Big Ten school went into a Pac 10 stadium and won. Fourth, OSU just has not impressed yet. Their QB looks shakey at best right now and it seems that OSU is going through a major transition this year on offense. They just don't have any fluidity on offense. Finally, I've been a big ten fan all my life and watch the conference closely and it is clear that the conference as a whole is down. MICH getting blown out twice, WISC life and death against UNLV, Iowa struggling with N.Illinois, Minn losing to a MAC school and going to OT with another one...and now money coming in on FAU like crazy against them, etc.....

I am not ready to back the Big Ten in this game. This to me has the makings of an upset. I think, personally, if UW covers this game there is a very good probability that they also win it straight up.

Good luck this weekend Steve.

Thanks for the info buddy. GL to you also.

[rjt721]

With you on Nebraska, and I tend to agree with Washington, although I'm passing on a side in that game.

That BC/GT game is one of the toughest games on the board to cap, IMO, as there are numerous reasons to back each side. I have a slight lean to BC +, but if GT's defense can shut down Callender and Whitworth, they win comfortably. As is, I'm going to pass on this one.

Good luck BB.

[rugbybdyb]

not a big fan of the Texas A&M pick, but I like the rest..

[pags11]

stay hot buddy...stay hot...

[BuddyBear]

Real tough week fellows at 3-5. Tenn and Wash both gave up in the 2nd half last week in games they were competitive in. GT was a terrible call. Typically teams that win the rushing and defensive battle cash tickets and GT did not even trying doing that yesterday. It was obvious when BC had a 95 yard opening drive on GT's defense last night that was a red flag....Nebraska was just outclassed in almost every way yesterday. It is clear to me that USC is the best team not just in the Pac-10 but the entire country till someone says otherwise. There may be other times to bet against them but that won't be till conference play at lest.

Finally, NMSU frustrated me last night to no end b/c I had bet NMSU -6.5 and it closed at -5 and even -4.5 at some places so i was taking the worst of it. In any event, NMSU missed an extra point, then missed a 2 pt conversion and also missed two FGs including a 22 yd attempt with less than 5 minutes to go and they 29-24 in a game they thoroughly dominated as they got 15 more first downs, over 200 more total yards and won both the rushing and passing battle....thus the 5 pt margin of victory in what should have been an easy double digit cover.....


Let's get them next week.....