[Razz]

I have made a write-up on each bowl game, and have rated games either by the units I am playing on them, or my opinion of each game. I have made three categories for opinions: weak, regular, and strong.

For games through December 29th:

December 20th

NEW ORLEANS BOWL- Arkansas St. vs. Southern Mississippi
Weak Opinion: Arkansas St. +17

I have virtually no opinion on this game, but if I played it, I’d take the points since the last six favorites of 16 or more have failed to cover. Arkansas St. has a solid rushing game, but it’s hard to give any real opinion on this game because I can’t determine if their stats are legit, or the product of playing such weak opposition.
Southern Miss 31, Arkansas St. 17

December 21st

GMAC BOWL - UTEP vs. Toledo
3* Selection: UTEP +3

This is not indicative of my overall opinion of Tom Amstutz, but he has not has his team prepared for their last two bowl games, 27 and 29-point losses to Boston College and Connecticut, respectively. The problem is largely Toledo’s defense, or lack thereof, who fail to pose any threat to any strong offense. This was proven this year in the Rocket’s lone game against any team that made a bowl, Fresno St., who beat them 44-14. While both teams have faced weak schedules, UTEP has definitely faced more quality opposition, and will be prepared for the environment.
Toledo certainly faces a strong offense in UTEP, who is led by Carson Palmer’s younger brother, Jordan. Jordan has thrown for over 3,300 yards and 28 touchdowns this season, and he should have it easy against a Rocket defense who is as weak as any he will have faced. The only problem is that the Miners turn the ball over to often to be a very strong selection.
Meanwhile, Mike Price has brought on an amazing turnaround the past two years. George O’Leary is receiving a lot of credit for what he has done at Central Florida, but that was a program with some recent history (Daunte Culpepper). UTEP, on the other hand, won no more than two games in any of the three years before Price’s arrival. I trust he and his staff to be able to at least limit Toledo’s running game. The Rocket’s passing attack, despite having Gradkowski in his senior year, has not been as potent this year.
Bear in mind, UTEP’s defense is not among the most feared in the country. This game is destined to be a shootout, which makes the 3 points all but irrelevant (as opposed to a game like Penn St./Florida St., where points are expected to be at a premium). Nevertheless, I think UTEP is going to get the outright win.
UTEP 38, Toledo 31

December 22nd

LAS VEGAS - BYU vs. California
Regular Opinion: BYU +7.5

The thought behind this one is I get a strong underdog that finished the year playing well against a favorite that finished the year playing poorly. Also, BYU should be motivated for this game, as they have haven’t been to a bowl game in three years. But, respect for Jeff Tedford and the talent advantage the Bears possess keeps this from being a rated play. Also, I expect Cal to be anxious to redeem last year’s bowl performance, which saw them lose 45-31 as a double-digit favorite. I expect this one to be another high-scoring affair.
California 34, BYU 30

POINSETTIA BOWL - Navy vs. Colorado St.
Regular Opinion: Colorado St. +3

Sonny Lubick has done something unusual in preparation for this bowl game. Instead of allowing his coordinators to get a head start on recruiting, he has kept them around getting a gameplan ready for Navy. And this is important to me, because teams normally struggle defending the Navy option offense, because they don’t know the proper strategy. But, given a whole month with nothing to plan for except the option (For every 7 Navy plays, more than 6 are runs). Navy hasn’t faced too many teams that throw the ball as well as Colorado St. does.
Colorado St. 33, Navy 31

December 23rd

FORT WORTH BOWL - Houston vs. Kansas
Weak Opinion: Houston +3

Kansas covered all their home games, and none of their road games - this is sort of a road game, so I think Houston is the only way to go, though this is another game I would suggest ignoring. Despite Kansas’s very strong defense, they are only 67th in the nation against the pass, and that is where Houston is best.
Kansas 24, Houston 23

December 24th

HAWAII BOWL - Nevada vs. Central Florida
2* Selection: Nevada -1.5

If you want a bowl game where motivation is not a factor at all, this is it. Both of these teams are absolutely thrilled to have qualified for a bowl game, and what better spot is there than Hawaii for a week-long vacation culminating in one of the most important football games of your life?
The Nevada offense certainly rounded into shape at the close of the season, when the Wolfpack started to gain a potent running game on their way to averaging 39 ppg in their last four games, all SU and ATS wins.
Neither one of these teams really plays much defense. But, Central Florida’s offense is more limited with Mike Walker, who caught 64 passes this season, doubtful for this game.
The last thing that I consider very important for this game is that it is being played in Hawaii, where Nevada plays every other season. They are more familiar with the preparation for this unusual trip, and UCF could get off to a slow start.
Nevada 41, Central Florida 28

December 26th

MOTOR CITY BOWL - Akron vs. Memphis
Regular Opinion: Akron +5.5

Akron played their last game of the season on this field, and they get to face a one-dimensional offense this week in Memphis. The quarterback struggles the Tigers have gone through this season are well documented, but so is the amazing career of Deangelo Williams. I will side with the more balanced offense, and the defense that is capable of stopping the running game.
Memphis 21, Akron 20

December 27th

CHAMPS SPORTS BOWL - Colorado vs. Clemson
No line yet: If Whitehurst plays, Clemson by 5, if not, Colorado by 1.

Clemson is a terrible favorite, covering only 2 of their last 11 in that role. They tend to play a lot of close games, but they are the better team. My opinion on this game is that Colorado backers will get a hell of a lot of line vaule, whether Whitehurst plays or not. But, I’m not very interested in taking a Colorado team that is probably psychologically shaky.

INSIGHT BOWL - Rutgers vs. Arizona St.
Strong Opinion: Rutgers +11.5

Rutgers has the ultimate revenge in this game. Their LAST BOWL GAME WAS 27 YEARS AGO, a 34-18 loss to Arizona St. Seriously, the reason I like Rutgers in this game is they really want to be there, while Arizona St. had much bigger things planned than playing in this little bowl. Also, the Rutgers offense should put up a lot of points against a horrendous Arizona St. defense.
Arizona St. 37, Rutgers 33

December 28th

MPC COMPUTERS BOWL - Boston College vs. Boise St.
Weak Opinion: Boise St. +1.5; Regular Opinion Over 53.5

In my opinion, this was the toughest game on the board to handicap before it was announced that Dan Hawkins was leaving Boise St. for Colorado. While I have no doubt he will turn Colorado in the right direction, I have a lot of doubt on what this will mean for Boise in this game. Still, I refuse to lay points in Boise with all but the strongest teams, and I don’t think Boston College qualifies, despite their impressive bowl record. They have also been grumbling about having to go to this bowl game, and I will NEVER knowingly bet on a team that doesn’t want to be playing the game they are in. Check this stat: Boise has won 31 games in a row at home, and has COVERED THEIR LAST 12 when not favored by three touchdowns.
I do like over a little bit here, because Boston College will be able to run the ball pretty well. And, while Zabransky has caught a lot of flack for poor performances in Boise’s two biggest games - against Georgia and Fresno St. - they were both on the road.
Boise St. 34, Boston College 31

ALAMO BOWL - Nebraska vs. Michigan
Weak Opinion: Michigan -11

I honestly have nothing to say about this game. I would have to lean to Michigan, but I hate taking double-digit favorites that are disinterested.

December 29th

EMERALD BOWL - Utah vs. Georgia Tech
Regular Opinion: Georgia Tech -8.5

I side this way simply because of what Georgia Tech has done the last two bowl games; that is, playing inferior teams, and whipping them at the line of scrimmage and rolling to big wins. Unfortunately, the Yellow Jackets have no desire to be here, so I’m not going to recommend them. Utah has been terrible against the point spread this year, and I don’t see them matching up with a much more talented team here.
Georgia Tech 31, Utah 17

HOLIDAY BOWL - Oklahoma vs. Oregon
7* Selection: Oklahoma +3 -105

THE UNDERDOG HAS COVERED THE HOLIDAY BOWL SEVEN YEARS IN A ROW.
Oregon 28, Arizona 21. While that may seem insignificant to some, it doesn’t to me. Mike Stoops is the head coach at Arizona, and played Oregon even with a completely overmatched team. His team has no postseason plans, and he will have plenty of time to share any information with his brother Bob. He has already been quoted as saying, “Gary Crowton switched to a real spread three to four wide outs, but they just used their tight end as another wide out. They are going to be spread out and they have some similarities in their quick passing game with Texas Tech.” This is music to my ears, as there is no team in the country that defends Texas Tech as well as Oklahoma. The Sooners have been playing extremely well recently, winning 5 of 6, with the lone loss the game the officials stole in Lubbock.
The odds makers pretty much admitted that Oregon is a fraud by opening them as a 1-point favorite over a team with four losses. Why do I agree? They have played the 41st ranked BCS schedule in the nation, as opposed to Oklahoma’s 2nd toughest schedule. The Ducks were blown out at home against the only ranked team they have played, and didn’t have to play UCLA. Meanwhile, it took overtime for them to beat a mediocre Cal team at home, and only beat Fresno St. by 3 because of 16 Bulldog penalties that allowed the Ducks back into the game.
The Sooners have correctly chosen to utilize an attacking style defense, and should test the inexperienced Ducks quarterbacks. Oregon has not seen a defense as good as the one they will see on December 29th.
These teams played last year in Norman, and Oklahoma dominated Oregon 31-7. Adrian Peterson ran for 183 yards and two touchdowns, and I expect a repeat now that he has regained his health, and there is at least the threat of a passing game with Bomar’s steady progression.
Also, Oregon’s special teams are terrible. They are extremely vulnerable to having a punt blocked, and it would not surprise me to see that be a part of their downfall in this one. Stoops has been experimenting in practice with ways to exploit Oregon’s “swinging-gate” formation.
Stoops as an underdog is always a good proposition, especially given time to prepare. You know he will have some trick plays up his sleeve, and will have his team in a frenzy after the last two year’s bowl games.
A lot of people who are backing Oklahoma here point to the fact that Oregon will be in letdown-mode, and it feels snubbed and may not show up. Indeed, Oregon HC Mike Bellotti said his team was disappointed to be left out of the BCS, and that “It’s just very difficult to swallow.” He also mentioned not wanting to play the Sooners in a bowl game since they play early next season. Meanwhile, Bob Stoops took the opposite approach, saying his team was noticeably “anxious to play in such a prestigious game” and that his team had all the motivation they needed playing a 10-1 team ranked #5 in the nation. I’m not sure Oregon’s players will react the same way Cal did last season in their 14-point loss as a double-digit favorite, but it would certainly be a warning sign for anyone interested in laying points with Oregon here.
The simple fact of the matter is that Oklahoma has the better team, and should win this one relatively easily.
Oklahoma 35, Oregon 24

[bigboydan]

very intailed views razz.

i agree with your Oklahoma 100% but, i happen like the moneyline on this game myself.

[EBone]

Razz,

I'm absolutely dying to read your writeup on Texas Tech. This game is really, really intriguing. If I had to ask one question, it would be: is Alabama taking this game seriously or are there unusual practice issues going on before the bowl game with Bama (ie, playing guys on the 1st team that normally don't play on the 1st string because of the extra practice time)?

I have to believe that after such a dismantling loss to their biggest rival in Auburn that they might not show up for this game. I believe you know something about this with rating this as a 10* selection. Comments?


E

[imgv94]

Razz you are the man!!! thank you for your detailed analysis.. One game
I do have a difference of opinion on is the Oklahoma vs Oregon game.
Oklahoma was not impressive at all this season other than that game
against texas tech. And I know you mentioned that Oklahoma beat Oregon
last year 31-7, but i think it's fair if i may include that Oregon st beat Oregon
last year 50-21 and this years Oregon team is much better and proved it
by coming back to beat Oregon State 56-14.I Like
Oregon ALOT!! Looking forward to your alabama
teas tech writeup. alright bud take care

[BuddyBear]

I like Oklahoma a lot too...i'll be on the money line here.

[Razz]

December 30th

MUSIC CITY BOWL - Virginia vs. Minnesota
Strong Opinion: Minnesota -3 -115

In my opinion, this game sets up very similarly to last year’s Minnesota-Alabama bowl game. I think Minnesota will be able to run the ball with enough effectiveness to win the game, while their defense holds a struggling Virginia offense. This game features one of the bigger yards per rush differentials among all bowl games, and I expect the Golden Gophers to control the line of scrimmage.
Minnesota 27, Virginia 17

SUN BOWL - Northwestern vs. UCLA
Regular Opinion: Northwestern +3; Strong Opinion Over 74.5

It’s not often that you’ll see Northwestern have the better defense in a game, but I think they have that here, and I know they have more motivation, so I will lean to the Wildcats to win the game. But I think this will be a shootout of epic proportions, with 100 points completely within reach.
Northwestern 45, UCLA 42

INDEPENDENCE BOWL - Missouri vs. South Carolina
Strong Opinion: South Carolina -3.5

There won’t be a bigger mismatch on the sidelines than Steve Superior vs. Gary Pinkel.
In the history of the Independence Bowl, SEC teams have participated 12 times. They have been victorious every time. No reason to think things will go any other way this year, as Missouri is terrible defensively, and seemingly incapable of putting a complete game together. They always break down, whether through turnovers, or just mental lapses that doom them. South Carolina doesn’t often collapse, and they have proven they can hang with quality teams.
South Carolina 31, Missouri 20

PEACH BOWL - LSU vs. Miami (FL)
No line yet: Whether Jamarcus Russell plays or not, I like Miami by 13. Obviously Miami very likely could end up being a play for me. Strong Opinion: Under whatever the total comes out at.

Miami has the better athletes, and LSU has been an overrated team since Day 1 this season. They have expressed resentment at being relegated to this bowl game, thinking they should have taken Auburn or Alabama’s slot in a higher-profile bowl. They need every ounce of concentration and desire to beat a team as talented, especially defensively, as the Miami Hurricanes, who have won and covered 7 of 8 bowl games. If Russell plays, expect to see several turnovers. If not, there will probably be turnovers anyways, but LSU will focus on running the ball, and that won’t work.
Miami has been coming around offensively, though they were still inconsistent towards the end of the season. They won’t have to score many points to win here, but they should put up some if Wright can get things going against a mediocre Tiger secondary that hasn’t seen receivers as explosive as Miami has.
Miami 20, LSU 7

December 31st

MEINEKE CAR CARE BOWL - South Florida vs. North Carolina St.
Strong Opinion: South Florida +5.5

It seems to me that the odds makers have overvalued the importance of the location of this game. While it is being played in North Carolina, NC St. is the worst home team in major college football anyways. On a true neutral field, I have this as a true pick ‘em game, and I think South Florida comes as the more motivated side. Also, this game features two very strong defenses against average offenses, so points should come at a premium. That tells me to back the underdog. I’ll call for the mild upset.
South Florida 17, NC St. 16

LIBERTY BOWL - Tulsa vs. Fresno St.
Strong Opinion: Fresno St. -6.5

This line has plummeted because of the way these teams have ended their respective seasons. Unfortunately for Tulsa backers, they are betting against a team that is much stronger in the trenches, and I think Fresno ends their season on a high note after the debacle that ensued after the tough USC loss. A month-long break is what this team needed to get their heads in the right place, and I expect them to physically pound Tulsa into submission, as Georgia Tech did the last time Tulsa made a bowl game, two years ago. When these teams were WAC counterparts, Fresno routinely whipped Tulsa, but since Tulsa is more motivated, I am not actually betting the game.
Fresno St. 42, Tulsa 28

HOUSTON BOWL - Iowa St. vs. TCU
2* Selection: Iowa St. +4

I’m never not going to bet on the better team when I’m getting four points, unless there is some outrageous factor. TCU is not one of the 25 best teams in the country, and Iowa St. is. Dan McCarney will have his team ready to erase the tough loss at Kansas. Iowa St. actually impressed me in that game. While I knew their defense was very good, I was shocked at how well they moved the ball against a great Kansas defense. They are stepping down in class here, and should get a win against a fraudulent team.
Iowa St. 31, TCU 24

January 2nd

COTTON BOWL - Alabama vs. Texas Tech
10* Selection: Texas Tech -2.5; Strong Opinion: Over 47

Many are promoting this as an interesting match-up between a very strong offense and a very strong defense. 95% of the time, I would back the strong defense. Unfortunately for Alabama, they face the team that is harder to prepare for than any in the nation. California learned this last year, when they were a double-digit favorite against Texas Tech and were summarily smoked. They were out-gained by a 2-1 margin, and lost 45-31. Alabama is not so difficult to prepare for, as they run a basic offense featuring mostly running plays, and count on defense to keep them in games. This is a large part of the reason they have failed to cover any of their last four bowl games.
If ever there were a misleading statistic, it is this one: Alabama only gives up 154.8 passing yards per game, which is second in the nation. Some (namely Alabama fans in the area where I live) have said this is a reason Alabama will be able to stifle the explosive Red Raider offense - for example this quote: “Texas held them to 17, and we‘ve got a better pass defense than Texas.” But, there is much more to the story.
Alabama was 9-0 and ranked No. 4 until closing the season with two consecutive defeats. When they were 9-0, it’s hard to imagine their goal was to make the Cotton Bowl. Meanwhile, Texas Tech basically needed to beat Oklahoma to make the Cotton Bowl. They did - well, according to the scoreboard, and I love that they will be the team that will be thrilled to be in this game.
The Tide's two losses were to teams that threw for the most yards and scored the most points of all its foes - and Tech throws for 177.3 more yards than LSU and scores 7.9 more points than Auburn.
Texas Tech throws for 403.6 yards per game, almost 20 better than anyone else. The Red Raiders also average 511 yards per game, second only to top-ranked Southern California, while scoring 42.1 points per game, fourth-best in the country.
For Alabama, no matter how much film players watch, it'll be tough preparing for a dizzying system filled with quick passes to all sorts of receivers running all sorts of routes.
"We'll be out there and running their plays, but there's no way we can simulate their efficiency and speed," Shula said.
Shula said that instead of using a scout team to run Tech's plays against his defense, HE MAY GO WITH THE FIRST TEAM OFFENSE, "just for the speed, as far as getting the ball out, the route-running and all of that." Not that Alabama’s first team offense is any comparison to Texas Tech’s, but only a total idiot would do that. I completely expect him to.
Obviously, Alabama’s problem is that they can’t score enough to keep up with any high-powered offense. Here is what they have done their last five games against opponents not named Utah State:

@ Ole Miss - W, 13-10. This is the same Ole Miss defense that gave up 35 points to Mississippi St.
vs. Tennessee - W, 6-3. Tennessee fumbled going in with a chance to make the score 10-3 late in the game, and Alabama made a game-winning field goal.
@ Mississippi St. - W, 17-0. 3 offensive points. The Tide got a defensive touchdown and special teams touchdown.
vs. LSU - L, 13-16. Scored 10 points in the first half, and then managed absolutely nothing until a FG in OT.
@ Auburn - L, 18-28. Scored 8 points in the closing minute.

Texas Tech actually has a pretty good defense this year, and should have no problem putting pressure on an Alabama offensive line that GAVE UP 11 SACKS in their last game. And if you haven’t seen Texas Tech’s safety Slay play, you are in for a treat. He is the most ferocious hitter I have seen in college football in years. Alabama may get some points, but I think they need at least 28 to win. That can’t happen without Prothro, and especially not behind a makeshift offensive line.
Texas Tech 42, Alabama 17

OUTBACK BOWL - Iowa vs. Florida
4* Selection: Iowa +3

Iowa is looking to end their season on a good note, after receiving pre-season publicity as one of the favorites to win the Big 10. They are also one of the Big 10 teams that has proven capable of hanging with SEC teams, with recent bowl victories - both as underdogs - over Florida and LSU. I respect Florida’s defensive speed, but they have not impressed me in their schemes, and I really look for Kirk Ferentz & Co. to exploit them, especially with Hinkel healthy, and QB Tate playing very well. RB Young ended the season with an impressive string of games, and I look for that to continue against the Gators.
Meanwhile, Urban Meyer’s gimmick offense really hasn’t been that successful in major college football, and against good defenses - see Alabama and Tennessee - it has done nothing. Iowa ended the year giving up only 10 points to a pretty good Wisconsin offense, and really limited their strong running game. If they can do the same to Florida, I don’t trust Chris Leak to beat the Hawkeyes.
Iowa 27, Florida 21

GATOR BOWL - Louisville vs. Virginia Tech
Weak Opinion: Virginia Tech -7.5

I can’t get a handle on Virginia Tech this season. I do know they have been very good against teams not based in Florida, so I would lean their way, especially with the defensive advantage they possess.
Virginia Tech 30, Louisville 20

CAPITAL ONE BOWL - Wisconsin vs. Auburn
6* Selection: Auburn -10

It’s hard to say a team that is a 10-point underdog (now 11) in a bowl game is overrated, but that is exactly what we have here in Wisconsin. Their defense is absolutely terrible, probably the WORST OF ANY BOWL TEAM not playing in the Sun Bowl. If Auburn ever gets bored with 10-yard runs, they can spread Wisconsin out with their four extremely talented wide receivers, and make the Badgers chase them all over the field. Wisconsin won despite not being able to cover Hawaii’s receivers. In the Capital One Bowl, they face a better quarterback, receivers, offensive line, and more importantly, defense.
Auburn’s defense will be able to neutralize Calhoun, and make John Stocco beat them. Stocco’s numbers are much better this season because defenses have had to commit 8 or more people to the running game, which leaves the passing game open. Auburn won’t have to do that, and Stocco won’t have much success against the Tiger secondary.
The scary thing about this play is that so many people have Auburn minus the points. Those who do like Wisconsin are largely pointing to the fact that it is Alvarez’s last game. Well, I have two things to say about that:

1. That didn’t exactly matter when Iowa beat Wisconsin 20-10 in his last home game.
2. If that’s the only reason you have to play the Badgers, and you admit that Auburn is better on offense and defense, you pretty much need to stop gambling.

Some Big 10 teams have the speed to play with SEC teams. Wisconsin isn’t one, as they proved two years ago when they were beaten 28-14 by Auburn. That Wisconsin team was better than this year’s edition, and that year’s Auburn team was not close to as good as this year’s team. No reason the margin isn’t at least that much this time.
Auburn 41, Wisconsin 17

FIESTA BOWL - Notre Dame vs. Ohio St.
Strong Opinion: Ohio St. -4; Regular Opinion Under 55.5

The question everyone is asking about this game is “Will Charlie Weis, given four weeks to prepare, pull the upset?” No. Weis versus Jim Tressel isn’t exactly a coaching mismatch, as many are saying, and in terms of experience, particularly bowl game preparation, Tressel has the advantage. Also, laying a small price with Ohio St. seems like a good idea considering the conditions of the teams’ respective defenses. Ohio St. has won and covered three straight bowl games, while Notre Dame has NOT WON ANY OF THEIR LAST SEVEN bowl games, covering only once. I’m not fading those trends, especially when Ohio St. also comes in with the far superior defense, and an offense that shouldn‘t have too much problem with a porous Irish defense. The Buckeyes will become a play if this line continues falling.
Ohio St. 27, Notre Dame 17

SUGAR BOWL - West Virginia vs. Georgia
Regular Opinion: West Virginia +8

I would love to bet on West Virginia here, but they are traditionally a bad bowl team, and I am afraid Georgia’s defense may be able to key on their running game, and shut down their offense. If the Mountaineers can’t run the ball, they will get run out of the Georgia Dome. I think they will be able to enough, but Pat White is going to have to throw the ball downfield to at least concern the Georgia secondary. Still, West Virginia has the better running game, and a very good defense, and as a two-score underdog, I like their chances. This one should be a good one to watch.
Georgia 24, West Virginia 21

January 3rd

ORANGE BOWL - Florida St. vs. Penn St.
Regular Opinion - Penn St. -7.5, Strong Opinion Under 48

I can’t back Florida St. here, I just can’t. They have only had one decent performance in their last five games, though that upset victory was quite impressive. Nevertheless, they don’t deserve to be here, and I can’t see them putting more than 14 points on the board against a dominant Nittany Lion defense. But, I don’t really know how well Penn St.’s offense will move the ball against the Florida St. defense that, while they haven’t been playing well, is better than most Big 10 defenses.
Penn St. 24, Florida St. 14

January 4th

ROSE BOWL - Texas vs. USC
Regular Opinion: Texas +7

Nothing would surprise me in this game. I think either team is capable of winning by three touchdowns, but the one thing I do expect is a lot of points being scored. I’m leaning to Texas because of their defensive advantage, and no other real reason. I do know that betting against the Heisman winner is a solid play, to the tune of 21-8 ATS.
USC 41, Texas 38

[maritime]

[QUOTE=Razz]December 30th

"Ohio St. has won and covered three straight bowl games, while Notre Dame has NOT WON ANY OF THEIR LAST SEVEN bowl games, covering only once."


Misleading & totally meaningless capping point. If red comes up 7 straight times on a roulette wheel, the 8th spin must also be red, right? Touts depend on gamblers buying into these trends. The fact is, with hundreds of sports teams, just by random chance alone, there will be apparently lopsided trends from time to time. The rest of your post is valid.

Tough game to cap. I think the best play is the over. OSU's defense is good, but I think ND will put up at least 30 points.

I'm totally on board with your Texas Tech pick.
Also like Oklahoma, as you say.

[mad]

Kinda' agree Maritime, I love hearing this sort of trend. Like a red rag to a bull, i'll play it. My thinking being well its gotta end soon then, they're due for a win. Illogical perhaps, but in this case as with Indy @ Foxboro this year i'm happy to give the Irish a chance. Although i must add i ended up playing the Pats after making a similar call. LOL, typical!

[BuddyBear]

[QUOTE=maritime]

December 30th

"Ohio St. has won and covered three straight bowl games, while Notre Dame has NOT WON ANY OF THEIR LAST SEVEN bowl games, covering only once."


Misleading & totally meaningless capping point. If red comes up 7 straight times on a roulette wheel, the 8th spin must also be red, right? Touts depend on gamblers buying into these trends. The fact is, with hundreds of sports teams, just by random chance alone, there will be apparently lopsided trends from time to time. The rest of your post is valid.

Actually not really.....each time the ball spins in roulette it is an independent event in the sense that the outcome of the last spin has absolutely no influence on the outcome of the following spin. In reality, players at ND who played in last year's contest and the one before that are still there so it's not a true independent event in the sense that those players can totally wipe things out....remember the ball on the roulette wheel has no memory...players and coaches certainly do....so I think this is an important stat that deserves to be mentioned. Remember...ND is a has been school. It relies on past glory and a sophisticated and effortful propaganda campaign to maintain its image. Agents who work on behalf of the university try to get people to forget about stats like ND has lost it's last 7 bowl games and instead want you to think about the "glory days." When capping this game you definitely need to take the 7 straight bowl game losses into account....don't let the ND propaganda machine fool you.

I really think OSU is going to give it to ND hard and expose them for the loser university that they are.

[clonecat]

[QUOTE=BuddyBear]

Remember...ND is a has been school.
I really think OSU is going to give it to ND hard and expose them for the loser university that they are.

A "has been" school that is going to a BCS bowl. Don't see many of those schools around.

This ND horse is beat to death, we know you hate Notre Dame and will give them no respect AND after Notre Dame plays well against Ohio State there will be another excuse. I am not a Notre Dame fan, but give them a lot of respect.

[maritime]

[QUOTE=BuddyBear]

Actually not really.....each time the ball spins in roulette it is an independent event in the sense that the outcome of the last spin has absolutely no influence on the outcome of the following spin. In reality, players at ND who played in last year's contest and the one before that are still there so it's not a true independent event in the sense that those players can totally wipe things out....remember the ball on the roulette wheel has no memory...players and coaches certainly do....so I think this is an important stat that deserves to be mentioned. Remember...ND is a has been school. It relies on past glory and a sophisticated and effortful propaganda campaign to maintain its image. Agents who work on behalf of the university try to get people to forget about stats like ND has lost it's last 7 bowl games and instead want you to think about the "glory days." When capping this game you definitely need to take the 7 straight bowl game losses into account....don't let the ND propaganda machine fool you.

I really think OSU is going to give it to ND hard and expose them for the loser university that they are.

Well certainly last year's players, for the most part, are on this year's team. But exactly how does a handicapper use that information to cap "this" game? What should be used is an analysis of this season's team in a matchup of this season's opponent, current injuries (not last season's injuries), this year's coaching style (not Ty Willingham's), etc. Furthermore, how exactly is what they did 7 years ago relevant to this game?? There is so much more relevant information to use than that. If you base your picks on trends like that, without considering the real determinants, you won't be cashing out much. Razz made some valid points, otherwise. He doesn't need that particular stat to like OSU.

[kdmfox]

Razz ... Nice write-ups on the bowl games ... I almost fell off my chair reading your final score on the BC/Boise St. game ... Lots of streaks alive in this one but the one that ends is Boise's 31 game win streak at home ... BC isn't one of the usual patsies rolling into town for the locals to beat up on ... This game is a mismatch ... BC pile drives the Broncos into their cute little blue turf ... I also think this game hits the under by quite a bit ... I'd be stunned if Boise St. gets more than 1 td.

True, BC isn't thrilled about going there, but they are about to show the ACC they made a mistake in sending them.

Final score ... BC 27 ... Boise St. 3

[Razz]

I agree that most trends have little value, but I think bowl trends have some meaning, especially on the Ohio St. side, as it shows Tressel knows how to prepare for bowl games.
Also, I feel like Notre Dame feasts on teams they are comfortable with, but when they step up to major non-conference opponents who have much more speed than them, they struggle mightily.

[Razz]

Two notes:

1. I'm not sure what effect Chuck Long's decision to take the head coaching job at San Diego St. will have on the Holiday Bowl. In my opinion, he has always been fairly predictable, and a noticeable drop from the offensive coordinators who came before him. He is solid when working with quarterbacks, but that isn't really that much of a concern at this point.
2. Alabama can't even sell their Cotton Bowl ticket allotment. Their blindly prejudiced fans, of course, still believe they will win - I have heard three different Alabama fans (two who didn't know one another) give the argument that if they had kicked off to start the Iron Bowl, they would have beaten Auburn. So, basically, they feel they will win, but don't care about going to Red Raider country to watch the game. Texas Tech is going to have at least a 2.5-1 advantage in crowd support.

[EBone]

Great info, Razz. Especially with the Texas Tech game......I may be riding hard on Texas Tech in the Cotton Bowl. Personally, I like the BC side of the Boise game as well as illustrated by kdmfox. O'Brien seems to really prepare his team for bowl games.....this will probably be their toughest test in recent years going into Boise. Is Hawkins coaching the bowl game?


E

[Money Line Maker]

[QUOTE=BuddyBear]

Actually not really.....each time the ball spins in roulette it is an independent event in the sense that the outcome of the last spin has absolutely no influence on the outcome of the following spin. In reality, players at ND who played in last year's contest and the one before that are still there so it's not a true independent event in the sense that those players can totally wipe things out....remember the ball on the roulette wheel has no memory...players and coaches certainly do....so I think this is an important stat that deserves to be mentioned. Remember...ND is a has been school. It relies on past glory and a sophisticated and effortful propaganda campaign to maintain its image. Agents who work on behalf of the university try to get people to forget about stats like ND has lost it's last 7 bowl games and instead want you to think about the "glory days." When capping this game you definitely need to take the 7 straight bowl game losses into account....don't let the ND propaganda machine fool you.

I really think OSU is going to give it to ND hard and expose them for the loser university that they are.

WOW, just when I think BB can't get any more pathetic he goes and posts this. I am now switching the lines at Vegas just because to favor ND more just because we can make money of guys like BB. If I wanted to fade someone this would be it. haha, thats 7 years ago buddy. Lets not forget who was the closest to beating USC this year. BB has no logics in his posts it is very very painful to read his posts thinking that there are people in the world who thinks like he does. "Roullete balls dont have a memory"durrrr. We here at vegas are sharp and we have a memory. We make the lines as close as possible so it is pretty much a 50/50 chance each time you make a bet. I could write a book about how wrong you are but I have to get back to work now.

[JessicaCutie82]

aww leave BB alone hes just trying to make a good point! Hehe I agree with you though MLM. BB contradicts himself in his post!

[Razz]

December 20th

NEW ORLEANS BOWL- Arkansas St. vs. Southern Mississippi
Weak Opinion: Arkansas St. +17

I have virtually no opinion on this game, but if I played it, I’d take the points since the last six favorites of 16 or more have failed to cover. Arkansas St. has a solid rushing game, but it’s hard to give any real opinion on this game because I can’t determine if their stats are legit, or the product of playing such weak opposition.
Southern Miss 31, Arkansas St. 17

December 21st

GMAC BOWL - UTEP vs. Toledo
3* Selection: UTEP +3

This is not indicative of my overall opinion of Tom Amstutz, but he has not has his team prepared for their last two bowl games, 27 and 29-point losses to Boston College and Connecticut, respectively. The problem is largely Toledo’s defense, or lack thereof, who fail to pose any threat to any strong offense. This was proven this year in the Rocket’s lone game against any team that made a bowl, Fresno St., who beat them 44-14. While both teams have faced weak schedules, UTEP has definitely faced more quality opposition, and will be prepared for the environment.
Toledo certainly faces a strong offense in UTEP, who is led by Carson Palmer’s younger brother, Jordan. Jordan has thrown for over 3,300 yards and 28 touchdowns this season, and he should have it easy against a Rocket defense who is as weak as any he will have faced. The only problem is that the Miners turn the ball over to often to be a very strong selection.
Meanwhile, Mike Price has brought on an amazing turnaround the past two years. George O’Leary is receiving a lot of credit for what he has done at Central Florida, but that was a program with some recent history (Daunte Culpepper). UTEP, on the other hand, won no more than two games in any of the three years before Price’s arrival. I trust he and his staff to be able to at least limit Toledo’s running game. The Rocket’s passing attack, despite having Gradkowski in his senior year, has not been as potent this year.
Bear in mind, UTEP’s defense is not among the most feared in the country. This game is destined to be a shootout, which makes the 3 points all but irrelevant (as opposed to a game like Penn St./Florida St., where points are expected to be at a premium). Nevertheless, I think UTEP is going to get the outright win.
UTEP 38, Toledo 31

Hope tonight's predicted final is as close as last night's. That safety cost me perfection.

[EBone]

Wow. I sure hope you're wrong on UTEP tonight, though. I'm on Toledo. We'll see how it turns out. Good luck tonight Razz.


E

[isetcap]

Misleading & totally meaningless capping point. If red comes up 7 straight times on a roulette wheel, the 8th spin must also be red, right? Touts depend on gamblers buying into these trends. The fact is, with hundreds of sports teams, just by random chance alone, there will be apparently lopsided trends from time to time. The rest of your post is valid.

Tough game to cap. I think the best play is the over. OSU's defense is good, but I think ND will put up at least 30 points.

You called out Razz and were correctly checked by BB, but the most absurd thing about this post is stating "ND will put up at least 30"!?!?

You have been blinded by the light shining off that Golden Dome you have sitting on top of your console television holding up the rabbit ears so you can receive your NBC affiliate's feed.

If Notre Dame wants to beat OSU (ND should win), they will need to make sure they hold OSU to no more than 23 points, because ND won't be scoring more than 24 in this game. It doesn't matter how hard you cheer for them on a weekly basis.

Take the ND moneyline and pair it with the under.

[Illusion]

Nice start Razz, good luck tonight.

[maritime]

You called out Razz and were correctly checked by BB, but the most absurd thing about this post is stating "ND will put up at least 30"!?!?

You have been blinded by the light shining off that Golden Dome you have sitting on top of your console television holding up the rabbit ears so you can receive your NBC affiliate's feed.

If Notre Dame wants to beat OSU (ND should win), they will need to make sure they hold OSU to no more than 23 points, because ND won't be scoring more than 24 in this game. It doesn't matter how hard you cheer for them on a weekly basis.

Take the ND moneyline and pair it with the under.

I'm up 14 units on ND games this year. Bet against them 4 times during that stretch (in response to your blinded comment).
Current total is at 56 & OSU favored by 4. Let me spell out what that means for you since you seem to need the help. Vegas, not me, predicts a score of OSU 30, ND 26. Yeah, absurd. Vegas is absurd. If I'm way off, there should be an easy money making opportunity that exists and the last time I checked, these lines haven't changed in a week.

By the way, I didn't "call out" Razz. I said he made valid points except for the fact that what ND did 7 years ago means nothing in capping this game. Start cooking your crow, you'll be eating it soon.

[Razz]

Well, with the nice winner tonight - that should have been a hell of a lot easier, but I'll take it - I improve to 1-2 on rated plays, thanks to the disastrous pick of UTEP and the disastrous final minute that was Nevada -1.5. Still up units, since Oklahoma was my second biggest play of the bowl season. I have a couple notes:

1. I came back with 3 units on Alabama +4, though I still would be surprised if the Tide can hang in this one.
2. I am adding two plays:

4* Ohio St. -4.5
2* Miami/LSU Under 41.5

[spanky]

i'm leaning heavily towards missouri after big 12 winners kansas,neb,okla,and a cover by decimatied colorado.south carolina has no running game to fall back on if qb struggles.

[Razz]

i'm leaning heavily towards missouri after big 12 winners kansas,neb,okla,and a cover by decimatied colorado.south carolina has no running game to fall back on if qb struggles.

Even though I said my opinion was on SC in that game, I certainly would now say it is either Missouri or nothing - nothing it is for me.