As A Former Mississippi State Athlete, The First Game of The Season I'm Blasting....
LSU -16.5
I generally hate road favorites, but I'm locked and loaded on LSU. I myself was a scholarship athlete for Mississippi State years back (as hard as that may be to believe ), but have long since lost allegiance for any particular school. I just don't see how Mississippi State even stays in this game, as there is literally not one position that I see the Bulldogs having an edge. This might be my largest play of the entire season, and damn if it isn't the Thursday night game of the very first week. I don't see how this doesn't turn out like the previous years, and I'd be stunned if Mississippi State is within three touchdowns at halftime (yes halftime). I've done all I'm going to do with this one, and it will be a brutal start to the season should I lose, but I honestly think this is as solid of an investment as they come by. If I have a team -7 and they win by 10 I actually get mad at myself for miscapping (unless something uncharacteristic happened), but I don't see this even coming close to the spread. I would lay LSU -24 in this situation without a moment's hesitation. Call it 48-10 LSU.
GL guys and I'll be glad to discuss this game further...
I feel that Miss. St. could actually do pretty decent this year via there ATS record. So needless to say I'll be taking my chances with the points, unless theres some huge injuries between now and game day.
Plan to be on Mississippi State here at 17.5 or more. Everyone and their brother is on LSU, and the line isn't moving. Tells me sharps are keeping this down. I have seen very few people that give Mississippi State a chance to cover 21 let alone 17. I think it is a percentage gamble on the Bulldogs. I think LSU players know how they have stomped Miss. St. and they will notch a victory on the schedule before they get to Starkville. Miss. St. has been stomped and I look for a passionate effort to open the season, conference play, and on Thursday night ESPN. Give me the underdog bulldogs at 17.5 or greater and I will take my chances.
Pags and I were talking about this game the other day and I know a lot of guys are on LSU here (man of whom I have great respect for) and for many good reasons but something tells me that someone out there knows something that we don't know.
I mean you have a very heavy public team, a high profile team, first game of the year, national television, and on a day when all NCAA bettors are counting down to....and the line comes out at -16.5???? Something smells fishy.
True, LSU is clearly the better team but they are breaking in a new QB, they did lose some skill players in their offenseive positions, and they are on the road laying 2+ TDs in a typically difficult place to play. MSU is not very good by most objective measures but they were very competitive in the 2nd half of the season last year, are playing at home in the first game of the season it what should be a very reved up crowd for this game.
Put it this way, I am not going to lay this many points on the road but I can see MSU either backdooring this game in the final few minutes or being very competitive where LSU survives a scare.
Good luck fellows but I will pass on this one.....
you make some excellent points...my thoughts on this are not to overthink this one...I think at times the books lets the squares win a couple, especially early in the season, so ultimately they can crush them in weeks 4 thru 14...I laid 10 on the road with ASU vs. Colorado last year (which was as square as a play as they come)...it was a tough game to watch, but ASU ultimately covered...
I'm not sure people really understand how talented and deep LSU is...I'm not sure they understand how big of a bully that Les Miles really is...and I'm not sure people realize just how bad MSU has been early in the season under Croom...I expect to take MSU later in the year in conference as dogs, but here's a rare circumstance that I'm going to lay double digits on the road...
SBR Top-Rated Sportsbooks
As A Former Mississippi State Athlete, The First Game of The Season I'm Blasting....
), but have long since lost allegiance for any particular school. I just don't see how Mississippi State even stays in this game, as there is literally not one position that I see the Bulldogs having an edge. This might be my largest play of the entire season, and damn if it isn't the Thursday night game of the very first week. I don't see how this doesn't turn out like the previous years, and I'd be stunned if Mississippi State is within three touchdowns at halftime (yes halftime). I've done all I'm going to do with this one, and it will be a brutal start to the season should I lose, but I honestly think this is as solid of an investment as they come by. If I have a team -7 and they win by 10 I actually get mad at myself for miscapping (unless something uncharacteristic happened), but I don't see this even coming close to the spread. I would lay LSU -24 in this situation without a moment's hesitation. Call it 48-10 LSU.
Reply With Quote
