Newsletters NCAA Week 5/NFL Week 4

Stanford Steve and The Bear: Week 5 college football picks, bets, nuggets

"Stanford Steve" Coughlin and Chris "The Bear" Fallica cover the college football season as only they can, offering their top picks, betting nuggets and totals worth wagering on.
Records:
The Bear (Last week: 3-2. Season: 9-10)
Stanford Steve (Last week: 5-2. Season: 14-8)
Note: All lines are from Caesars Sportsbook.

The Plays

No. 22 Auburn Tigers at LSU Tigers (-3.5, 55.5)
Fallica: That was a really good win by LSU last week. The Tigers took advantage of every chance the Bulldogs gave them, the young players played well and they kept their season from spiraling downhill. Auburn probably should have lost last week, and maybe they cycle back to a good effort this week, but I dunno. Things just seem "off" there. The QB position seems to be a problem, and now Auburn goes on the road to this environment and might have to play LSU transfer TJ Finley? Nothing about the situation seems ideal for Auburn.
Pick: LSU -3.5
Stanford Steve: The optics of the Auburn win last week told me a lot. Starting QB benched and sulking down at the other end of the field as his team tries to rally for a comeback win. A third critical catch that should not have even been a catch. The fan base crying for the backup to start this week. All I know is I have been to Death Valley for many a Saturday night, and that is not a good place for a road team that appears to be in turmoil. I do think the LSU defensive line can cause some serious problems for that Auburn O-line. I'll take the home team and lay the points.
Pick: LSU -3.5 (LSU 26 Auburn 19)

No. 14 Michigan Wolverines at Wisconsin Badgers (-1.5, 43.5)
Stanford Steve: They are trying to tell us something. The road team has zero turnovers and is undefeated this year and the home team, which has nine turnovers and two losses this year, and is favored. The Badgers surrendered only 9 yards rushing in their loss to Notre Dame last week, and are giving up only 23 yards on the ground per game. Michigan ran for only 112 vs. Rutgers last week and converted only two first downs in the second half. I think the home team plays its best game to date in front of its home crowd and wins and covers.
Pick: Wisconsin -1.5 (Wisconsin 27, Michigan 21)
Fallica: Yes, Graham Mertz is a turnover machine and has a QBR of 8.6 vs. Power 5 teams this year. And yes, he has more INTs and sacks combined (nine) than TDs and 20-yard passes (five). But I think Rutgers' performance last week may have provided a cheat sheet on stopping Michigan. Sell out at all costs to stop the run, and if Cade McNamara can beat you, so be it -- last week he was 1-for-5 for 7 yards in the second half as Michigan didn't convert a single third down and was outgained 231-42. Now they face a Wisconsin defense that has allowed 75 rushing yards all season, had six sacks a week ago and has allowed fewer offensive TDs than any other team aside from Georgia. It's now or never for a beleaguered Badgers team, and I trust Jim Leonhard will have his defense ready for a big effort.
Pick: Wisconsin -1.5

No. 7 Cincinnati Bearcats (-2, 50.5) at No. 9 Notre Dame Fighting Irish
Stanford Steve: All I needed to see was that Notre Dame was an underdog at home. The Irish have won five straight in this situation under Brian Kelly. As much as I have wanted Cincinnati to make the playoff this year, I worry about this spot. I expected more from the Bearcats in their first true road game at Indiana a couple of weeks ago. Don't get me wrong -- they did what they needed to do, and that was win the game, but this is a whole different situation. The expectation here is that Jack Coan will start, and most importantly, play well. And when I look at the other side, no one knows Bearcats QB Desmond Ridder better than new Notre Dame DC Marcus Freeman after having gone against him every day in practice the previous three years. Gotta take the Irish as a home dog in this situation.
Pick: Notre Dame +2 (Notre Dame 24, Cincinnati 20)

Mississippi State Bulldogs at No. 15 Texas A&M Aggies (-7, 46)
Fallica: Talk about a brutal spot for the Aggies. You're coming off an offensive no-show in a loss to Arkansas and you have Alabama coming in next week. Playing the role of sandwich is a Mississippi State team with a more-than-capable offense and a defense that just might be able to shut down the Aggies' running game and see if Zach Calzada can beat them. To this point, he and his offensive line have shown that's not a certainty. In two games vs. Power 5 teams, Calzada is averaging 4.8 YPA and the Aggies have run for just 219 yards. In the end, Mississippi State might just be good enough to get you beat, as they were last week vs. LSU, but I have to take the 7 points.
Pick: Mississippi State +7

Washington State Cougars at California Golden Bears (-7.5, 52)
Fallica: The Bears have the market cornered on close calls this year, losing to Nevada by five, TCU by 2 and Washington in OT. They might just get the necessary elixir this week in the form of the Pac-12 North's worst team. In two games vs. Pac-12 foes, Wazzu has scored 27 points and averaged less than 300 yards per game. I expect Justin Wilcox's team to let out some frustration this week.
Pick: Cal -7.5

Nevada Wolf Pack at Boise State Broncos (-6.5, 59)
Fallica: I could certainly be wrong, but this feels like a bit of a reputation line. Nevada couldn't win as a favorite in Manhattan a couple of weeks ago but has had time to regroup. Remember, this is a team that has won at Cal. Boise won an ugly game in Logan last week as Utah State hindered itself with turnovers and penalties. The Broncos' defense will need to be at its best to slow down Carson Strong and company, and at the very least, I expect the Wolf Pack to be in this until the end.
Pick: Nevada +6.5

Western Kentucky Hilltoppers at No. 17 Michigan State Spartans (-10.5, 64.5)
Fallica: I had some fun last week on Twitter watching Nebraska and Michigan State, notably the Huskers' awful special teams, but that Michigan State second-half offense ... wow. Maybe a drop down to C-USA opposition will help, but this is a pretty good C-USA team. The Hilltoppers lost by a field goal at Army and their comeback vs. Indiana fell short last week because of a questionable fourth-down decision to punt. This is a great spot for WKU. Last week you were right there with a Big Ten team and now you get another opportunity right away to try and finish the job. This line feels high, which of course means WKU will be down seven with the ball and throw a late pick-six, as Michigan State has definitely had voodoo power over opponents this year.
Pick: Western Kentucky +10.5

Eastern Michigan Eagles at Northern Illinois Huskies (-2.5, 60)
Stanford Steve: Both teams give up over 400 yards of offense and both teams average more than 370 yards on offense per game. Both teams have played in some wild games already this season. I just trust the team coached by Chris Creighton more. I'll take the road team plus the points.
Pick: Eastern Michigan +2.5 (Eastern Michigan 31, Northern Illinois 28)

Liberty Flames at UAB Blazers (-2, 49.5)
Stanford Steve: For two straight weeks we will be going against the Flames from Liberty. This situation has all the goods for the home team. The Blazers under Bill Clark are gonna be playing their first game in the brand-new 45,000 seat Protective Stadium in Birmingham. The festivities will start with the UAB Marching Blazers band taking the field and then there will be the raising of the Conference USA championship flag pregame to honor last year's league championship ... all that you want in a home team playing its first game in a new stadium in an area of the country where they love them some college football. The Flames have played way lesser competition and are fresh off their first loss of the season at Syracuse. I like the home team to win and cover.
Pick: UAB -2 (UAB 29, Liberty 21)

Troy Trojans at South Carolina Gamecocks (-7, 42.5)
Fallica: Who wants to take a team that lost to UL Monroe as a 23.5-point favorite last week? This guy does! All one can really do is chalk that game up as a fluke and move on. Troy's defense has played well this year, allowing no more than 339 yards in any game and forcing seven turnovers. That could be a problem for a South Carolina offense that has run for one TD this year and has scored 20, 13 and 10 points vs. FBS opponents in 2021. If Troy can score 20, that means the Gamecocks have to score 28 to beat you, and I'm not sure they can.
Pick: Troy +7

The Bear's money-line parlay

Last Week: +91
Season: -209
$100 returns $241
North Carolina Tar Heels -1100
Penn State Nittany Lions -475
Memphis Tigers -430
California Golden Bears -305
Kent State Golden Flashes -900
SMU Mustangs -1400
Georgia Bulldogs -1100
Alabama Crimson Tide -700
UTSA Roadrunners -1600

The Bear's underdogs to play on the money line

Last Week: 3-3, +2.5 units
Season: 12-10, +15.4 units
Minnesota Golden Gophers +115
Troy Trojans +235
Eastern Michigan Eagles +125
Buffalo Bulls +215
Nevada Wolfpack +210
Tennessee Volunteers +135
TCU Horned Frogs +180
Mississippi State Bulldogs +250

Bear Bytes

Virginia Cavaliers at Miami Hurricanes
Miami has failed to cover five of its last six games as a favorite vs. FBS teams. The Canes lost two of those games by at least 21 points, and had a 48-point win and wins by 2, 3 and 5 points. Going back further, in its past 20 games as a favorite vs. FBS opponents, the Canes are 7-13 ATS with nine outright losses.
Underdogs have covered nine of the last 11 and 12 of the 16 all-time meetings in the series.
The last three meetings have produced 33, 26 and 29 total points.
No. 5 Iowa Hawkeyes at Maryland Terrapins
Maryland has won three of its last four games as an underdog, including the 2021 season opener vs. West Virginia as a 2.5-point dog.
Iowa is 13-1 in its last 14 games as a favorite of four points or fewer. The lone loss came last year at Purdue as a 3.5-point favorite.
Syracuse Orange at Florida State Seminoles
Florida State (0-4) is a favorite over 3-1 Syracuse. This is just the second time we've seen a Power 5 matchup in which a team 0-4 or worse has been favored over a team with a winning record. The other time came in 1988, when 0-4 Tennessee was a 3.5-point home favorite over 2-1 Washington State. The Cougars won that game 52-24, and a year later, head coach Dennis Erickson was off to Miami.
No. 7 Cincinnati Bearcats at No. 9 Notre Dame Fighting Irish
Notre Dame has won each of its last five games as a home underdog. All five games were one-score games. Going back to 2008, Notre Dame is 9-1 ATS as a home underdog. It's the first time since 2010 Notre Dame is a home dog vs. a team that wasn't a member of a Power 5 conference. The previous time, the Irish beat Utah 28-3 as a 5.5-point home dog.
No. 8 Arkansas Razorbacks at No. 2 Georgia Bulldogs
After beating Texas A&M last week, an Arkansas win this week would be a historic feat. No team has ever defeated a top-10 team away from home in consecutive weeks as an underdog.
Since 1986, there have been 18 top-10 teams that were at least a 17-point underdog -- only three have won outright -- with the last being 17.5-point underdog Tennessee at Florida in 2001.
Under Sam Pittman, Arkansas is 9-3 ATS with five outright wins as an underdog. That's the most wins by any team since the start of last year. Arkansas has been favored only twice under Pittman -- vs. Rice and Georgia Southern.
Since Jan. 1, 2019, Georgia has faced 11 ranked teams at home or on a neutral field. Nine of the 11 games have gone under, including games with totals of 45, 43.5, 43.5 and 47.
No. 10 Florida Gators at Kentucky Wildcats
Over the past 20 years, there have been 10 teams that were 4-0 or better and were a home underdog of greater than 7 points vs. a team that was not undefeated. Nine of those 10 covered, with Memphis +10.5 vs. Ole Miss in 2015 being the lone winner. Seven of the nine losses came by seven points or fewer. The last such game came in 2019, when 9-0 Baylor was a 10.5-point underdog to 8-1 Oklahoma. The Bears led most of the way but lost 34-31 to the Sooners.
Boston College Eagles at No. 25 Clemson Tigers
The Eagles have lost 20 straight and 31 of 32 games vs. ranked opponents. BC's last win over a ranked team came in 2014 vs. Steve Sarkisian's USC team.
Beginning with the 2019 national championship game, Clemson is 5-12 ATS and failed to cover each of its last five games. In those five games, Clemson is 2-3 with a win over FCS South Carolina State and a six-point win over Georgia Tech as a 27.5-point favorite.
No. 11 Ohio State Buckeyes at Rutgers Scarlet Knights
Under Ryan Day, Ohio State is 8-0 straight up and 6-1-1 ATS as a road favorite. All eight wins came by at least 13 points.
Eastern Michigan Eagles at Northern Illinois Huskies
With a win, Eastern Michigan would start 4-1 for the second time in six years. Prior to 2016, the Eagles were 4-1 or better through five games twice in the previous 28 years. The Eagles' only loss this year is at Wisconsin.
USC Trojans at Colorado Buffaloes
USC has lost three of its last four Pac-12 games outright as a favorite. The Trojans were a double-digit favorite in two of those losses.
Western Kentucky Hilltoppers at Michigan State Spartans
Michigan State is 1-13 ATS with four outright losses in its last 14 games as a home favorite.
No. 14 Michigan Wolverines at Wisconsin Badgers
Going back to 2016, there have been nine unranked teams that have been favored vs. a top-15 team. Seven of the nine have won the game, including West Virginia two weeks ago vs. Virginia Tech. The only two losses were Virginia Tech last year vs. Miami (by a point) and Missouri in 2018 vs. Kentucky (by a point).
Tennessee Volunteers at Missouri Tigers
Dating back to the start of last year, Tennessee is 0-7 as an underdog, losing by an average of 18.7 PPG. Only one game was decided by less than 12 points.
No. 6 Oklahoma Sooners at Kansas State Wildcats
Kansas State has beaten Oklahoma each of the last two years as a 20-plus-point favorite. K-State beat OU 38-35 last year as a 27.5-point dog and 48-41 in 2019 as a 23.5-point dog.
Kansas State can become the sixth team to defeat the same opponent three straight years as a double-digit underdog and the first to do it while being a 20-point dog in two of the meetings.

TEAM
OPP

YEARS

SPREADS

UAB Southern Miss 09-11 +10.5, +10, +23

San Jose State Stanford 98-00 +15.5, +19, +17.5

Cal Arizona 88-90 +10.5, +11.5, +12

Air Force Notre Dame 82-84 +11, +13, +10

Kansas Iowa State 80-82 +10, +13.5, +11

Northwestern Wildcats at Nebraska Cornhuskers
Dating back to 2014, Northwestern has been a double-digit underdog 17 times. The Wildcats have gone 13-3-1 ATS in those games with seven outright wins.
Texas Longhorns at TCU Horned Frogs
TCU has won and covered six of the last seven vs. Texas, including both times the Horned Frogs were an underdog in that span (2016 and 2020).
In their past 10 meetings, Texas is 5-5 SU and 2-8 ATS the week prior to facing Oklahoma, which includes the meeting in the 2018 Big 12 championship game.
Nevada Wolf Pack at Boise State Broncos
Nevada has covered each of the past seven games in which it has been an underdog. The Wolf Pack have won six of those games outright, including twice as a double-digit dog.
No. 3 Oregon Ducks at Stanford Cardinal
Oregon has failed to cover any of its past six games as a favorite. On the positive side, the Ducks have held the Cardinal to 14 and 6 points over the past two years.
The Ducks have the big win at Ohio State but have most of their difficult games remaining on the road. No Pac-12 team has gone unbeaten in conference play during an unabbreviated season since Chip Kelly's Oregon team that played for the national title in 2010.
Since 2011: Schools from Power 5 conferences that have gone undefeated in regular-season conference play
ACC: 7
Big Ten: 7
SEC: 5
Big 12: 1
Pac-12: 0
Excludes 2020 abbreviated season

jpjonny · 09-30-21 11:30 PM

thank you so much for these.

Dr. Fager · 10-01-21 06:08 PM

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TEAM	OPP	YEARS	SPREADS
UAB	Southern Miss	09-11	+10.5, +10, +23
San Jose State	Stanford	98-00	+15.5, +19, +17.5
Cal	Arizona	88-90	+10.5, +11.5, +12
Air Force	Notre Dame	82-84	+11, +13, +10
Kansas	Iowa State	80-82	+10, +13.5, +11

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