Understand that this 6 point opener is very well done by the originator, then did the books a favor as not only will action on +6 and even +6.5 early on, which they did, I know firsthand, lol, but they can move it down, and want to move it down because that will generate Wisky action but the market leads into the +5.5 and, basically, that means the Dog buying will stop, moneywise, but in this instance the public will still be picking up ND. In fact, the move downward move below 6 even has an effect of picking up public steam (not a line move, but uptick in tickets sold on ND) that will in fact get countered by big money designed to counter that very action, as well take advantage of coming off of a TD or 2 FGS, the key 6. Remember the line is important, this is a very specific description of this game's market.
So we get 5.5 at the broader open across the market, they already know the +6 will get hit. Six is a key number here, especially in this game's market. That's should be obvious.
At 5.5 with the numbers in play, the book has the public still buyng ND in bits while the real money is more split as Wisky buyers will come in, even with my forecast, on less than -6 so they take Wisky -5.5,which is a respectable position in what is essentially RLM at that point, sending the line upward, because it is respectable move. The books flushed it out.
(Like I said, 6 is important. I'm not even saying why, I'm holding that back. Let's just say that it's a key number for more reasons than the conventional way, it too has it's percentages stacked.)
There are other constraints too, such as the moneyline price and pressure, and there is some on Wisky, despite the public taking what look like the standard shots on Dame at this stage.
By floating back and forth betwen 5.5 and 6.5, they can even skip the 6, (watch for that in the market, lol, and watch the +6.5 get vigged up and the -5.5 get vigged up) the book has the ability to continue to generate action for not only a Notre Dame game, but one of two top 20 teams.
The methodologies and numbers add up, the books are put in a great situation here with this game as they can generate action at will don't have to react to the bettors, and can balance the book exactly where they need.
It's all wrapped up for them.
For me, and the Contrarian Fund, we need that money to stay on Wiskey, and the public to pick up Dame.
At +6.5, the public is taking that Dame but moneyline pressure on Wisky will keep that line from dropping, there is a balance (to a degree but, and as evidence of what I', saying, you'll notice that any moves back and forth from 6.5 to 5.5, etc won't be accompanied by much of a ml move). This will also have the effect of moving more money off of the even position of the spread and get it onto Wisky as -6.5 isn't as attractive as the -5.5 was for those buyers.
We can actually get two situations here the will cause a Contrarian Fund trigger, because we know the volume will be right. We can get both the money and tickets on Notre Dame but also have a large enough discrepency between the two to get that type of trigger as well.
The books know the market participants and in my opinion it shows in what they have done so far with this line.
But we are far from Saturday and for now the books have really set themselves up.
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Wisky is Gonna Pound Notre Dame
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Originally Posted by KVB
