1. #1
    Eddy Munny
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    I Got a Bunch of College Football Plays Simmering in the Crockpot

    My card for week 1 NCAAF is swelling to preposterous proportions. Somebody stop me before this monster envelopes every game on the board. I'm firing away at plays like Doc Holliday at the O.K. Corral. Here's what I've got pending so far, and keep in mind I placed many of these bets at various times in the days following their initial posting so some of the lines have already moved.



    Nebraska -7
    @ Illinois

    This is actually a week 0 game to kickoff an important year for Scott Frost and the Huskers. Coach likes what he has in the offensive line and if they play to expectations then Illinois should have trouble stopping the run. Despite the transfer of RB/WR WanDale Robinson the Huskers actually upgraded their WR room which should help Martinez who's been up and down for much of his career. Must win for Nebraska because the schedule gets rough after the non-cons.

    Ohio State -13 @ Minnesota

    This could be a trappy spot for the Buckeyes because the Gophers were rarely if ever at full strength last year and OSU will be starting a new quarterback in a Thursday night road opener. Still, OSU will be strong in the trenches, elite at WR, and have a home run hitter at RB with freshman TreyVeyon Henderson who should see snaps behind the starter Teague. Stroud looks like another plug and play at quarterback so beating the spread will come down to Buckeyes defense making enough plays.

    Indiana +5 @ Iowa

    If Penix is fully healthy then I think the Hoosiers should be closer to a pick'em. They were the surprise team in the B1G last year and return 17 starters. This game could be controlled by the defenses early on, but I'll take Penix over Petras when the chips are down, not to mention insurance points.

    West Virginia @ Maryland +3.5

    Terps return Taulia Tagovailoa at quarterback and all his top receiving options. At home on opening day I think this is a great spot for Maryland, who flashed at times last year, and will be facing a Mountaineer defense that lost a lot of key production to the draft and the transfer portal.

    Oklahoma -22.5 @ Tulane

    The Sooners are gonna be stacked this year and should contend for a national championship. Conversely, Tulane was all over the place in 2020, and while not outright terrible, didn't demonstrate anything that would lead me to believe they can stay on the field for very long with Oklahoma. Not to mention Tulane's two best players on defense were their bookend linemen who've both moved on. This spread has already already spiked significantly.

    Michigan State +6 @ Northwestern

    Spartans won this game last year as the decidedly inferior team and now I think Northwestern takes a step backward while MSU could see a tick upward; they certainly can't get much worse. While the Cats still appear to be the better team on paper, there's enough unknowns that render six points a gift in what profiles as another slobberknocker.

    Western Michigan +18 @ Michigan

    The Broncos return 8 starters on each side of the ball, including the quarterback and 4/5 of the offensive line for an offense that was ninth in scoring last year. Granted that was against lousy MAC competition but wtf have the Wolverines done to warrant an 18 point spread? They needed overtime last year to knockoff Rutgers for fukk sake. This is probably inflated due to reputation more than merit, but gimme the intrastate dog here with the chip on their shoulder.

    Northern Illinois @ Georgia Tech -16.5

    I might be out of my mind to be laying this many points with the Ramblin' Wreck but I think they may have some sneaky upside this year. The two freshmen QB Sims and RB Gibbs were pretty good last year all things considered, and now they get a full off-season to sharpen up. Tech was bad on defense but I like some of the pieces they added through transfer to try and shore that up. NIU struggles against the run so if GT can get going downhill early, covering the number won't look so daunting.

    Louisiana @ Texas -9.5

    This line opened around -14 but when it dipped below double digits I had to buy me some Bevo. The Sark era in Austin begins and I don't think they stumble out of the gate. The Ragin' Cajuns won't have the luxury of being under the radar anymore so I don't think they catch UT off guard. Louisiana played a bit over their heads last year and the Iowa State game was the biggest feather in their cap but that final score was misleading. Texas' new quarterback looked electric in the bowl game and the RB Robinson is a stud. Cajuns are a solid team but I expect Horns to pull away at some point in the game.

    San Jose State +17 @ USC

    I paid -125 for a full point purchase on this game. USC is overvalued every single year it seems like and this may be the case yet again. SJSU returns 20 starters from their squad that went 7-1 last year, including three wins over bowl teams. The Spartans have some gamers on the defensive side of the ball and return Nick Starkel at quarterback, who's been around the block but has SEC experience to his credit. We get the little brother catching a good chunk of points again in another intrastate tilt and the Spartans will already have a game under their belt (they play an FCS school in week 0) when they meet USC so there's that.

    Penn State +4.5 @ Wisconsin

    Both these teams underachieved last year. PSU did end the season on a four game winning streak albeit against the bottom feeders of the conference. There's probably not a huge edge in this game but I have a little more faith in the Nittany Lions until Wisky proves they can revert to their former dominance in the run game, because without it they just don't have an identity on offense. Give me the points in a game that could be a squeaker either way.

    Georgia vs. Clemson -3 (Charlotte)

    Plucked the best number when it was available.. There's a lot of hype on the Dawgs this year, but I think Clemson's defense will come out swinging in this one. The last time they were on the field Justin Fields was carving them up to the tune of 49 points... Now Brent Venables has had an entire off-season to sit around and stew over the embarrassment, no chance they come out ill-prepared for JT Daniels. The Tiger defense is loaded with potential and now they have a little more experience to go with it.

    Marshall -2.5 @ Navy

    This one's pretty simple... Navy was bad last year and Marshall wasn't. This line looks like bait on the hook but I'll bite anyways. The Thundering Herd return 17 starters overall and might be the best team in C-USA. Their quarterback was a freshman last year and performed admirably. He gets most of his offensive line and receiving weapons back. On the flipside, Marshall was 4th in rushing defense so they can match up well against the one thing Navy traditionally does with any efficacy.

    Alabama vs. Miami +18.5 (Atlanta)

    It's no secret Bama reloads like Rambo, but damn, if D'Eriq King plays in this game there should be plenty of opportunity for at least a backdoor cover if they can't cover straight up. Speaking of Rambo, the Canes did land former Oklahoma WR Charleston Rambo via the transfer portal and return last year's leading receiver Mike Harley to boot. Miami's defense isn't lights out, but they are middle of the pack so there's a chance they could get off the field a few times against Bama, who will be working in some new faces on offense. That being said, there's enough margin for error to get a cover here.

    Baylor -13.5 @ Texas State

    Charlie Brewer transferred out of Baylor so I'm not exactly sure what the hell I'm thinking laying two touchdowns but I'll try to explain. Both these teams won just two games last year but one plays in the Big XII and the other the Sun Belt. Coach Aranda has to be looking at that schedule salivating because there's no reason why he shouldn't have Baylor 3-0 (@Texas State, Texas Southern, @Kansas) heading into week four against Iowa State. I think Baylor has enough on defense to hold Texas State at bay while the Bear offense figures things out. And they very well should figure things out, because as bad as they were on that side of the ball last year the Bobcats were worse on defense (125th in total D).

    UTEP -7.5 @ New Mexico State

    I don't even remember what my handicap was for this game, but it's there in my pending bets, so fukk it, go Miners!! When you're laying points with El Paso on the road in week one, you know your card is getting bloated.

    But in all seriousness NMSU was horrible last year, and they only return two starters (pretty remarkable since last year didn't affect eligibility) so if there's any chance they improve in 2021 it certainly won't be because of experience.


    That's all for now!


    Last edited by Eddy Munny; 07-28-21 at 05:37 PM.
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  2. #2
    jjgold
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    Slow down some guys could be injured for the first game

  3. #3
    Mackballs
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    Quote Originally Posted by jjgold View Post
    Slow down some guys could be injured for the first game
    He provides 16 plays with good analysis and breakdown and the best you can follow up with is this elementary and useless comment.
    .

  4. #4
    Easy-Rider 66
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    Get em Eddy. Like the breakdowns. GL.

  5. #5
    hubie69
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    Quote Originally Posted by Mackballs View Post
    He provides 16 plays with good analysis and breakdown and the best you can follow up with is this elementary and useless comment.
    .
    Exactly this

  6. #6
    jjgold
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    Eddy worry about today man

    Foots a long way away

  7. #7
    johnnyvegas13
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    Quote Originally Posted by jjgold View Post
    Eddy worry about today man

    Foots a long way away
    It’s really not tho...

  8. #8
    MinnesotaFats
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    What is attendance policy in college this year?

    Big impact if 0/25% capacity in places

  9. #9
    Eddy Munny
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    Quote Originally Posted by jjgold View Post
    Eddy worry about today man

    Foots a long way away
    You're right... What we need are more vaccine threads. I apologize for the inconvenience.
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  10. #10
    RoyBacon
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    Like the San Jose St pick, Indy.

    Going against the Tex pick. New coach and a rebuilt offense vs a bowl team.

    I'm looking at taking Bama. Reminiscent of when a rebuilding Bama opened against an excellent Mich team and won 42-14.

  11. #11
    Eddy Munny
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    Quote Originally Posted by MinnesotaFats View Post
    What is attendance policy in college this year?

    Big impact if 0/25% capacity in places
    That's a good point, but most of my plays are coincidentally road teams so if there are any attendance restrictions in place at those venues it probably gives me even more value if anything. 3 picks are home teams, 11 road teams, and 2 neutral locations.

  12. #12
    hubie69
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    Quote Originally Posted by jjgold View Post
    Eddy worry about today man

    Foots a long way away
    Now specifically is the time one should be tinkering with football

  13. #13
    johnnyvegas13
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    Quote Originally Posted by hubie69 View Post
    Now specifically is the time one should be tinkering with football
    This
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  14. #14
    las8
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    Quote Originally Posted by jjgold View Post
    Eddy worry about today man

    Foots a long way away
    That's something a hamburger would say.






    Like the hoosiers. Can't believe the line tbh. I am going to look at the under in that game as well.

  15. #15
    b1slickguy
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    Thanks and good luck, Eddy.
    However, a chafing dish may be a more suitable option over the crockpot.

  16. #16
    JacketFan81
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    I love Georgia Tech until the day I die, but I damn sure don't trust Thacker's D to hold any kind of lead where I would feel safe laying 16.5 points

  17. #17
    Eddy Munny
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    Quote Originally Posted by JacketFan81 View Post
    I love Georgia Tech until the day I die, but I damn sure don't trust Thacker's D to hold any kind of lead where I would feel safe laying 16.5 points
    But they did add Kevin Harris, who's a former four-star recruit who started his career at Alabama and he should be an immediate starter at DE. They also have 2019 starter T.K. Chimedza back in the fold at DT after missing all of last year. Keion White is another transfer from Old Dominion who was All C-USA in 2019 and is expected to challenge for time at DE. Then they have Ayinde Eley, a Maryland transfer, projected to start at LB, and 4/5 of their secondary return from last year. The Jackets also added two transfers to the offensive line, and one of them is expected to be an immediate starter at left tackle.

    In short, I think Georgia Tech will be improved on both sides of the ball. It helps that Northern Illinois just wasn't very good last year, so it could be a nice tune-up for Tech. The Huskies did add former Michigan State quarterback Rocky Lombardi to the roster so they upgraded that position, and 16.5 points is a lot for a young GT team, but if the Jackets get a more polished version of Sims this year at quarterback, and the defense takes a step forward, I like this team to be an easy 2-0 before hitting conference play.

  18. #18
    hubie69
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    Quote Originally Posted by las8 View Post
    That's something a hamburger would say.






    Like the hoosiers. Can't believe the line tbh. I am going to look at the under in that game as well.
    He is 100% hamburger


  19. #19
    pavyracer
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    Good plays. I agree with all of them. Let's bury the books now.

  20. #20
    ThaTopMoron
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    don't go crazy eddy

    i know it's week 1 and if it's one of your best sports to bet on that you start to believe you have them all figured out but you don't

    keep going over them until you find reasons to trim down the card

    that being said... I can't wait!!! i don't bet in between nba finals and start of football... short wait this year

  21. #21
    Eddy Munny
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    Quote Originally Posted by ThaTopMoron View Post
    don't go crazy eddy

    i know it's week 1 and if it's one of your best sports to bet on that you start to believe you have them all figured out but you don't

    keep going over them until you find reasons to trim down the card

    that being said... I can't wait!!! i don't bet in between nba finals and start of football... short wait this year
    This card isn't getting trimmed, these are bets placed, not leans. If anything, I may snipe a couple more sides before September gets here and I'll definitely take some totals once those are made available.

    I mean I'm realistic about how it all shakes out, I'm not running the table, but I do like my position on every one of these games, some more than others. And my liability on these games isn't uniform, about a third of them are 2.5 unit plays with the remainder of them being 1 unit plays.

  22. #22
    lakerboy
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    Good luck.

  23. #23
    Zlaniner
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    Clemson and Bama

  24. #24
    BigdaddyQH
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    Nice write up. I see that you take your football seriously. it is too bad that there simply is no way you can win. You wager on way too many games. You also seem to ignore a lot of angles and trends. Did you know that Minny is 5-0 ATS against Ohio State, as well as being 7-1 in the first of Back to Back home games?

    Illinois has a new HC in experienced Bret Bielema. He is a superior HC when compared to a proven failure in Scott Frost of Nebraska. This is a pick 'em game. Giving 7 points against anyone who is playing Nebraska at home is a very dangerous play.

    Taking ANYONE against Alabama in Atlanta is almost suicidal, and Miami certainly fits that description. They are depending on a QB with a gimpy knee, That affects the way he plays. Manny Diaz has been a disappointment as the Miami HC and is no match against Saban. Alabama wins this game by as many points as Alabama wants to.

    I do appreciate your effort, but there are just too many things that you overlook. Obviously, you wager very little, if any actual money. Statements like: "...keep in mind I placed many of these bets at various times in the days following their initial posting so some of the lines have already moved." are excuse statements. You are trying to legitimatize your post, which gives a sharp gambler cause to question your entire operation. You also refuse to become a pro which is very questionable considering the number of points you have already accumulated. Glad to see that someone in here is willing to post some facts to go along with their opinion, but my guess is that if I picked a few of your wagers to fade and offered you the chance to wager some real money on those games, you would refuse.
    Last edited by BigdaddyQH; 07-29-21 at 12:42 PM.

  25. #25
    vitterd
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    Quote Originally Posted by BigdaddyQH View Post
    Nice write up. I see that you take your football seriously. it is too bad that there simply is no way you can win. You wager on way too many games. You also seem to ignore a lot of angles and trends. Did you know that Minny is 5-0 ATS against Ohio State, as well as being 7-1 in the first of Back to Back home games?

    Illinois has a new HC in experienced Bret Bielema. He is a superior HC when compared to a proven failure in Scott Frost of Nebraska. This is a pick 'em game. Giving 7 points against anyone who is playing Nebraska at home is a very dangerous play.
    You lose every year

  26. #26
    RoyBacon
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    Quote Originally Posted by vitterd View Post
    You lose every year
    Dude you couldn't any more analyze a game than you could scrounge up a $100 to donate to charity.

    My advice to use is to try and recognize when the adults are talking.

  27. #27
    vitterd
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    Quote Originally Posted by RoyBacon View Post
    Dude you couldn't any more analyze a game than you could scrounge up a $100 to donate to charity.

    My advice to use is to try and recognize when the adults are talking.
    Figures you would bond with a kiddie lover! All that great analysis had you at 2-9 while I have the biggest winning thread in sbr history!!

    You’re a known losing gambler. Go copy and paste write ups. It’s really helping you!!

  28. #28
    pavyracer
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    Quote Originally Posted by BigdaddyQH View Post
    Nice write up. I see that you take your football seriously. it is too bad that there simply is no way you can win. You wager on way too many games. You also seem to ignore a lot of angles and trends. Did you know that Minny is 5-0 ATS against Ohio State, as well as being 7-1 in the first of Back to Back home games?

    Illinois has a new HC in experienced Bret Bielema. He is a superior HC when compared to a proven failure in Scott Frost of Nebraska. This is a pick 'em game. Giving 7 points against anyone who is playing Nebraska at home is a very dangerous play.

    Taking ANYONE against Alabama in Atlanta is almost suicidal, and Miami certainly fits that description. They are depending on a QB with a gimpy knee, That affects the way he plays. Manny Diaz has been a disappointment as the Miami HC and is no match against Saban. Alabama wins this game by as many points as Alabama wants to.

    I do appreciate your effort, but there are just too many things that you overlook. Obviously, you wager very little, if any actual money. Statements like: "...keep in mind I placed many of these bets at various times in the days following their initial posting so some of the lines have already moved." are excuse statements. You are trying to legitimatize your post, which gives a sharp gambler cause to question your entire operation. You also refuse to become a pro which is very questionable considering the number of points you have already accumulated. Glad to see that someone in here is willing to post some facts to go along with their opinion, but my guess is that if I picked a few of your wagers to fade and offered you the chance to wager some real money on those games, you would refuse.
    Didn't like Otters27 kick your ass last year going head to head after you called him out for not knowing what he was doing?
    Last edited by pavyracer; 07-29-21 at 02:10 PM.

  29. #29
    las8
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    The all knowing bigdaddy gave you a compliment and didn't go full 100% angry geezer a hole on you. You should feel honored Eddy.

  30. #30
    Eddy Munny
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    Quote Originally Posted by BigdaddyQH View Post
    Nice write up. I see that you take your football seriously. it is too bad that there simply is no way you can win. You wager on way too many games. You also seem to ignore a lot of angles and trends. Did you know that Minny is 5-0 ATS against Ohio State, as well as being 7-1 in the first of Back to Back home games?

    Illinois has a new HC in experienced Bret Bielema. He is a superior HC when compared to a proven failure in Scott Frost of Nebraska. This is a pick 'em game. Giving 7 points against anyone who is playing Nebraska at home is a very dangerous play.

    Taking ANYONE against Alabama in Atlanta is almost suicidal, and Miami certainly fits that description. They are depending on a QB with a gimpy knee, That affects the way he plays. Manny Diaz has been a disappointment as the Miami HC and is no match against Saban. Alabama wins this game by as many points as Alabama wants to.

    I do appreciate your effort, but there are just too many things that you overlook. Obviously, you wager very little, if any actual money. Statements like: "...keep in mind I placed many of these bets at various times in the days following their initial posting so some of the lines have already moved." are excuse statements. You are trying to legitimatize your post, which gives a sharp gambler cause to question your entire operation. You also refuse to become a pro which is very questionable considering the number of points you have already accumulated. Glad to see that someone in here is willing to post some facts to go along with their opinion, but my guess is that if I picked a few of your wagers to fade and offered you the chance to wager some real money on those games, you would refuse.
    I'll briefly address each point:

    1. Some angles matter, most don't... "Minny is 7-1 in the first of B2B home games" for instance, is utterly meaningless.

    2. I'm fully aware that Bret Bielema is the new head coach, and I don't care.

    3. I'm fully aware that fading Alabama is generally a losing proposition, also don't care.

    4. My statement regarding having placed some bets very early are regarding the current number. It's why I have Oklahoma -22.5 (which wasn't even the best number I could've got). If someone were to go bet Oklahoma right now they'd be laying -26 or so. It is what it is, it's not like I get paid to do this, I'm not rushing to SBR to post my plays the second they're in.

    5. This thread alone I believe represents 16 more picks ATS than you've shared with the forum in your entire 12 year tenure, so you'd better get in the saddle and giddyap if you expect anyone to take your opinion seriously.

  31. #31
    Eddy Munny
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    Quote Originally Posted by las8 View Post
    The all knowing bigdaddy gave you a compliment and didn't go full 100% angry geezer a hole on you. You should feel honored Eddy.
    He's lowkey tailing the whole card and hedging his bet with a dash of scorn in the event that it proves unprofitable.


  32. #32
    RoyBacon
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    I'm having a hard time with that Alabama game.

    As you mentioned Miami has a little talent on O and the back door could be open. I just don't think Miami's defense can get off the field. Miami is too mistake prone.

    Bama could be sluggish but their speed eventually turns 3 yard passes into 6.

  33. #33
    ThaTopMoron
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    Quote Originally Posted by Eddy Munny View Post
    This card isn't getting trimmed, these are bets placed, not leans. If anything, I may snipe a couple more sides before September gets here and I'll definitely take some totals once those are made available.

    I mean I'm realistic about how it all shakes out, I'm not running the table, but I do like my position on every one of these games, some more than others. And my liability on these games isn't uniform, about a third of them are 2.5 unit plays with the remainder of them being 1 unit plays.
    yeah it's not like its 30 plays... just noticed a lot of them are road games. where weird shit happens on the regular

  34. #34
    spro23
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    What do you think of lsu -4 at UCLA? UCLA has like 10 seniors on each side of the ball that's why the line is so low.

  35. #35
    manny24
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    looks good Eddy

    we want the leans too

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