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Canes & 'Noles on collision course in ACC
'Canes & 'Noles on collision course in ACC
08/04/2007 07:30 AM
By: Chance Harper
If the 'experts' are correct, the ACC is a two-horse race betweent Miami and Florida St this year. The Hurricanes are the favorites in the Coastal Division while the Seminoles are given the edge in the Atlantic. Virginia Tech, Maryland and Georgia Tech are three schools that hope to upset those preseason predictions.
The way they talk about Miami (Fla) and Florida State, you’d think it was a Hollywood wedding.
'Canes & 'Noles on collision course in ACC
The Hurricanes and Seminoles have both been proclaimed the preseason favorites to win their respective ACC divisions. Miami is even money to take the Coastal, while the Seminoles are priced at 11-10 to win the Atlantic. So much for value.
These two historic football programs had uncharacteristically bad seasons in 2006. Coaching changes were long overdue. In Miami, Randy Shannon is the new head coach after five years of diminishing returns under Larry Coker. FSU, meanwhile, dumped reviled offensive coordinator Jeff Bowden in favor of Jimbo Fisher. Problem solved? Perhaps, but in their rush to re-anoint these two powerhouses, the betting public is setting the table for a full-course dinner of chalk.
FSU is on the bumpy road to recovery after last year’s unsatisfactory 7-6 (6-7 against the spread) performance. Bobby Bowden, Jeff’s father, remains the head coach at age 77 and shows no signs of stepping down. Maybe he should.
The Seminoles won at least 10 games every season between 1987 and 2000 inclusive, but have reached double-digits just once since then, in 2003. Reaching 10 victories and locking down the Atlantic will be a struggle this time around, with a tough November schedule threatening to spoil the comeback bid.
Miami was even worse on handicappers last year at 7-6 straight up and 3-8-1 ATS. Shannon is expected to bring back some discipline to a program that became embroiled in controversy; four players were suspended for the season-opening loss to the Seminoles, and 13 more incurred the wrath of ACC officials after the brawl with Florida International.
But Shannon wasn’t the first choice to replace Coker, and the former Hurricanes defensive coordinator’s biggest challenge in 2007 is to breathe life into an offense that scored just 19.5 points per game last year.
With the two marquee superpowers getting the benefit of the doubt, the teams that actually performed well in 2006 are being snubbed. That smells like the formula for value. The Georgia Tech Yellow Jackets, for example, are 8-1 to retain their Coastal title. The loss of wide receiver Calvin Johnson to the Detroit Lions shouldn’t be nearly the big deal it’s being made out to be -- wide receiver is arguably the most overrated position on the gridiron.
The tougher obstacle for the Ramblin’ Wreck should be the Virginia Tech Hokies (11/10). This is one hell of a football team, probably the best in the conference and a legitimate BCS championship contender. Sixteen starters return from last year’s 10-3 squad (7-5 ATS); they, not Miami, had the best defense in the nation with a tiny 219.5 yards allowed per game. The VT schedule is also very forgiving, with most of the top ACC teams coming to Blacksburg.
Back in the Atlantic, the Wake Forest Demon Deacons aren’t likely to repeat the amazing 11-3 (8-5 ATS) campaign that saw them go all the way to the Orange Bowl. But it’s almost a crime to put Wake all the way down to 7-1 to win the Atlantic, the same odds as the rebuilding North Carolina State program. The Deacons have 14 starters from their 2006 players back in the fold, enough firepower to quell any concerns -- for this year, at least -- about recruiting players to a small, smart university.
The bigger snub in the Atlantic may have been dealt to the Maryland Terrapins. The Turtle is dead last at 8-1 to win the division. That just doesn’t make sense. Yes, the Terps went 9-4 (5-7 ATS) despite scoring exactly as many points as they gave up. And quarterback Sam Hollenbach has moved on. However, nearly everyone else is back, and junior QB Jordan Steffy should be more than competent handling Maryland’s offense. Fear the Turtle.
Clemson (2/1) and Boston College (5/1) will both mount Atlantic challenges of their own, even more reason to worry if you’re a Seminoles fan. The Hurricanes have the easier path through a Coastal division that includes North Carolina (5/1), Virginia (6/1) and Duke (50/1). None of those three teams will make much noise in 2007 -- unless the Blue Devils somehow manage to win a game. That would be cause for a ticker-tape parade.
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Originally Posted by colt29
