[Smutbucket]

Finally football season is here and we can return to normalcy. . Wasn’t expecting to have a play this week on the surface but after digging into the card - I found a gem. First play of the season!

I created a google sheet breakdown of my entire career picks since handicapping and posting online on these forums. The sheet can be viewed here: and I will update every week on google sheet as well as make posts.

2012 Total: 80 - 58 (+22.3 units)
2013 Total: 96 - 97 (+10.62 units)
2014 Total: 66 - 87 (-27.55 units)
2015 Total: 82 - 54 (+26.98 units)
2016 Total: 65 - 67 (-5.37 units)
2017 Total: 74 - 66 (+1.41 units)
2018 Total: 72 - 90 (-20.19 units)
2019 Total: 70 - 68 (+0.87 units)
Lifetime Total: 605 - 587 (+9.07 units)


NCAAF 2020-21 Season:

Week 1:
Arkansas State +18 (-108) Risking 1.08 units to win 1 units
Arkansas State returns 9 starters on offense, including their entire offensive line, a few key skill players, and two battling QB’s who both received experience last season as they struggled with injuries. Both QB’s proved capable of leading an efficient offense and that was under the 1st year of Keith Heckendorf’s system. Their defense switched to a three-man front mid-season and saw some improvement. Having only 3 returning starters on defense isn’t a bad thing when your ranked 88th in yards per play allowed. On the other side of the ball we have a whole new coaching staff at Memphis which always fares well to fade in week 1 - especially a new coaching staff as little experienced as this one coming in because who would want to coach at Memphis? Sure Brady White returns and 5 other starters on this explosive offense is back but will they be as potent under a new play-caller - Kevin Johns? Kevin Johns has a career of being a co-offensive coordinator at Western Michigan, Texas Tech, and Indiana and has done nothing impressive at any of those schools. I think we may even get an upset here but lets not get greedy and take the easy win with the 18 point cushion.

[Fred The Hammer]

Finally football season is here and we can return to normalcy. . Wasn’t expecting to have a play this week on the surface but after digging into the card - I found a gem. First play of the season!

I created a google sheet breakdown of my entire career picks since handicapping and posting online on these forums. The sheet can be viewed here: and I will update every week on google sheet as well as make posts.

2012 Total: 80 - 58 (+22.3 units)
2013 Total: 96 - 97 (+10.62 units)
2014 Total: 66 - 87 (-27.55 units)
2015 Total: 82 - 54 (+26.98 units)
2016 Total: 65 - 67 (-5.37 units)
2017 Total: 74 - 66 (+1.41 units)
2018 Total: 72 - 90 (-20.19 units)
2019 Total: 70 - 68 (+0.87 units)
Lifetime Total: 605 - 587 (+9.07 units)


NCAAF 2020-21 Season:

Week 1:
Arkansas State +18 (-108) Risking 1.08 units to win 1 units
Arkansas State returns 9 starters on offense, including their entire offensive line, a few key skill players, and two battling QB’s who both received experience last season as they struggled with injuries. Both QB’s proved capable of leading an efficient offense and that was under the 1st year of Keith Heckendorf’s system. Their defense switched to a three-man front mid-season and saw some improvement. Having only 3 returning starters on defense isn’t a bad thing when your ranked 88th in yards per play allowed. On the other side of the ball we have a whole new coaching staff at Memphis which always fares well to fade in week 1 - especially a new coaching staff as little experienced as this one coming in because who would want to coach at Memphis? Sure Brady White returns and 5 other starters on this explosive offense is back but will they be as potent under a new play-caller - Kevin Johns? Kevin Johns has a career of being a co-offensive coordinator at Western Michigan, Texas Tech, and Indiana and has done nothing impressive at any of those schools. I think we may even get an upset here but lets not get greedy and take the easy win with the 18 point cushion.

Nice analysis! I've got Ark St +10.5 1H to close out a nice parlay and +18.5 straight up. Had Authentic in the Derby. Had A's Over, Celtics Under. Really solid day if Ark St hangs in there!

[Fred The Hammer]

Little scary for a second, but we nailed it!!! Nice pick!!!

$$$

[Fred The Hammer]

Little friendly advice Smut as a longtime cfb capper

Great write-up and you're digging into the right info imo! It feels like your overall record should be much better and will be with more experience.

What really works for me is taking that info from all season and using it to really smash a few select bowl games that you really like!! I'm not sure hows it going to work with the B10/Pac12 sitting out, but they'll do something. I kill (or atleast beat) the bowl season every year and always get a big thread going. If you play 1-3 units during the season then hit a few select bowls for 10 apiece or whatever you're comfortable with. There is always coaching changes or someone sitting out that really makes one side stand out. Kids that don't give a shit because the coach is gone and the game is on a Tues night or something.

Few examples:

Cincinnati -7 over BC last year. BC's coach got fired and their RB Dillon sat out who was 75% of the offense.

2 years ago Syracuse +7,+1 over WV. Senior QB Will Grier sat out for WV and they suck in bowl games anyway. Always start fast and fade every year. Cuse had a rare shot at 10 wins and had Dungey at QB who was pretty good.

2-3 years ago Wyoming +1 / C Michigan Nobody from Michigan was going to give a shit about playing in Boise, ID plus Wyoming was trying to showcase Josh Allen and had fans from neighbor Wyoming so it was like a home game basically. Easy blowout

[Smutbucket]

Thanks Fred for the feedback and welcome to the thread.

Even though I have been one to typically always stick a standardized one unit per bet unit size (I will typically have 10-20 two units per year) I think you may be on to something. Reviewing my career picks I can tell you that I am 81-75 (+13.31 units) in bowl games which is better than my regular season record and I will consider doing that perhaps next year bc this year is going to be a mess and I am going to bet cautiously.

Found another play in Week 1's card and just finishing up the writeup and waiting on a key number! will post soon

[Smutbucket]

Week 1 Add:
BYU/Navy over 48.5 (-103) Risking 1.03 units to win 1 units
The more I looked into this game, the more the over stood out for a few reasons. Mainly BYU’s offense should be strong with starting QB Zach Wilson back and his experienced offensive line with 110 starts ranking 16th. I’m not too concerned about losing Bushman and a whole new WR corps in this game as Navy’s secondary should be horrible like it usually is. Navy’s pass defense efficiency ratings have had an average ranking of 118th over the last 3 years and ranked in the bottom 10% of the league in 10 of the last 12 seasons that Ken Niumatalol since has been head coach there- the problems are systemic. A talented Zach Wilson will be able to find open receivers and move the ball easily. On the other side of the ball, Navy replaces it’s QB but returns it’s entire backfield. I think they should move the ball at will against a weak BYU front that is unfamiliar with the triple option offense. Seven starters on BYU’s defense return that were very susceptible to the run ranking 102nd in line yards last year and 58th in yards per rush attempt. BYU’s coaching staff will be the first to acknowledge they are unfamiliar with the triple option offense and I think they will have their hands full with defenders having to manage gaps and not chase the movement. The line opened in the mid-50’s but the number has been heavily bet down by the market. Vegas oddsmakers are rarely that far off and I think the initial total line will be more in-par with the final outcome of the game - each team will put up at least 24 points. Buy the half point with your bookie - for tracking purposes I utilize pickmonitor lines and in current format you can't buy points but will soon.

[Smutbucket]

NCAAF Week 1: 2-0 (+2 units)

NCAAF Week 2
Miami -14 (-107) Risking 1.07 units to win 1 units
At the end of the day Miami should dominate at the line of scrimmage and the skills players are stronger, faster, and just better. We are getting some value here because Miami has been notoriously awful on the big stage for the last decade but that can largely be attributed to a decade of horrible QB’s. Finally in steps a seasoned veteran transfer, D’Eriq King. D’Eriq King is an all around athlete who was a WR in his first year but transitioned to QB by the middle of his sophomore year. In his Junior year he threw for almost 3000 yards, 36 TD’s, 6 INT’s and racked up another 675 yards and 14 TD’s on the ground in only 11 games before getting injured. Last year he played the first 4 games at Houston and he realized the team sucked and regardless of how good he performed it would be difficult to stand out at Houston so he red-shirted and transferred to a real school, Miami. A great example of how great the new red-shirt rule is for athletes. Also exciting new change for Miami is the hire of new OC, Rhett Lashlee. I have him rated at a B+ coach as he was a disciple of Guz Malzahn who worked under him as OC at Arkansas State in ’12 and Auburn from ’13-’16. In ’13 was a finalist for the Broyles Award. Lashlee took over play-calling duties halfway through the ’16 season which led to success for Auburn. In 2017, he had a one year stint at uConn but the offense struggled but the last two years he was at SMU where the team saw significant improvement from year 1 to year 2 as they improved from 106 in ypp in his first year to 31st in ypp in his second year. Hats off to the UAB program for coming back and dominating much of the weaker schools since it’s returned and coming off a 9 win season but since the program returned it is 0-3 against Power 5 schools and have lost by an average by 25 points in those games. Manny will have this Miami team ready but even if they come out slow, by the end of the game the athleticism of Miami will prevail and win by 14+ easily.

[BigdaddyQH]

Tough game to call. Miami is Miami, one of the biggest disappointments year after year. I do not think that they are nearly as talented as you seem to think. Meanwhile, UAB has a senior loaded squad that is favored to win the CUSA West. QB Johnson is certainly on an equal to Miami QB King, and has the advantage to playing with his entire offense for a season plus. UAB is a hungry group of guys. Miami knows that they are in a battle with several teams to finish 2nd and play Clemson again in the ACC Championship. They have a tough away game at Louisville next week. Looking ahead? With the line now up to 15 at many Vegas shops, UAB is the play.

[Smutbucket]

Week 2 adds:
Georgia Tech +11.5 (-104) 2x
Georgia Tech ML (+331) .5x
Iowa State -11.5 (-107)
Louisville -11.5 (-107)
Wake Forest TT Over 13.5 (-104)

Georgia Tech +11.5 (-104) Risking 2.08 units to win 2 units
Georgia Tech ML (+331) Risking .5 units to win 1.66 units
I love the opportunity to bet a big dog here with so much experience returning for Gtech under the 2nd year of a great coach, Geoff Collins. Geoff Collins has led great defenses throughout his career including two top 10 defenses (in ypp allowed) at UF and then in ‘17 he went to Temple where his defense ranked 41st in his first year and 9th in his second year. Last year Gtech had 3 different starting QBs, all who had been recruited and expected to run the option so of course there was growing pains. James Graham returns who was their best starter but I think true freshman recruit Jeff Sims may take over the starting role although Gtech has not officially named its starter. Gtech is ranked 1st on phil steele's experience chart with 90% of their yardage on offense returning and 85% of their defensive tackles. FSU in contrast is ranked 45th in PS experience chart and James Blackman returns who I would assume will retain the starting role he has held and played so horribly for 4 years. He will be working with his 4th new OC as a starter as FSU has received a whole new coaching staff with Norvell and his boys. Although Norvell led an impressive turn-around at Memphis there's a big difference when you’re in the Power 5. Norvell’s only previous experience as OC was at Arizona State where his offense had an average ranking of 55th in ypp during his tenure every year with little deviation or improvements from year 1 to year 4. I think Gtech is in position to have a big upset here even so let's take the points for two units and sprinkle a half unit on the ML.

Iowa State -11.5 (-107) Risking 1.07 units to win 1 units
This is a great example of a game where we are getting great value due to the discrepancy in SOS. By the numbers, ULM went 11-3 last season and has 14 returning starters. They averaged 38 points per game and 6.6 ypp on offense, and on defense allowed 19 ppg and 5.4 ypp but the hardest team they played all season was Mississippi State in week 1 and besides that game their schedule was an absolute joke. Iowa State’s numbers look much worse as they were 7-6, averaged 32 ppg and 6.4 ypp on offense and allowed 26 ppg and 5.4 ypp on defense. Those are surface numbers but when you factor in the difference in opponents when you face the Sun Belt conference vs the Big 12 you would see why Iowa State is such a big favorite (and they should be more!). My favorite SOS indicator is Sagarin’s SOS rating and they have Iowa State's team ranked 5th last season in SOS and ULL ranked 88th. The Ragin Cajuns used their run game to open up their passing game averaging 6.28 yards per carry last season. But in their 3 losses they barely averaged 4.25 yards per carry. I don’t expect ULL to move the ball easily at all against this Iowa State front that may be the best in the Big 12 this season (not saying much). Their defensive numbers struggled at times last year but that was against the high-powered offenses of the Big12. Iowa State has 8 returning starters on defense and should see improved defensive numbers under 5th year head coach Matt Campbell. There’s a reason that the 10 conferences that make up college football are divided into two subsets, one called the Power 5 and one called the group of 5. This will be a classic example of a Power 5 imposing its will on an itty bitty group of 5.

Louisville -11.5 (-107) Risking 1.07 units to win 1 units
Excited to see how this Louisville team will perform under 2nd year head coach Scott Satterfield and 16 returning starters (ranked 8th on phill steeles exp chart). Although the defense struggled last season (giving up 33 points per game), it was still a tremendous improvement from ‘18. Every stat improved in Satterfields first year and he built a great program at Appalachian State so lets see if he can do the same thing in a Power 5. Last year Louisville won this game by 18 but there’s reason to believe this game will be even more of a blow-out as WKU lost it’s starting QB, and in steps Maryland transfer Tyrell Pigrome. Although he can run, his arm reminds me of Tim Tebow's ducks and his 5’10 height gives him problems with visibility and throwing lanes. Tyson Helton HEAVILY relies on throwing the ball, last season the threw 66% of the time, and in ‘14-’15 when he was OC here at WKU they averaged an even higher pass play percentage. It will be interesting to see how much they use Pigrome but regardless I think Louisville's offense will be too potent to be stopped and should pull away by 2 TD’s or more.

Wake Forest TT Over 13.5 (-104) Risking 1.04 units to win 1 units
We just need a couple mistakes in this game to cover and I think it's well worth the value. Clemson only returns 6 starters on defense and 58% of their total tackles. Although this happens almost every year and Venables reloads with another group of high performance athletes and a top 10 defense, they can still make some mistakes. I like Sam Hartman, who has started 13 games and lost his job to Jamie Newman last year. He will be hungry to prove himself and he’s got that squirrely Johnny Football factor to him where he improvises well and makes big plays (also will make some big mistakes). I think worst case scenario Clemson is blowing them out by 40 and we get a pointless TD in garbage time to win this bet.

[Smutbucket]

Week 2 Results: 4-2 +3.55 units
Season YTD: 6-2 +5.55 units

Week 3 Full Card: (Write-ups below)
Duke -5.5 (-112) Risking 2.24 units to win 2 units
Georgia Tech +7.5 (-112) Risking 1.12 units to win 1 units
Pitt/Syracuse Under 49 (-109) Risking 1.09 units to win 1 units
Miami/Louisville Under 64.5 (-103) Risking 1.03 units to win 1 units

NCAAF Week 3
Duke -5.5 (-112) Risking 2.24 units to win 2 units
Lots of offseason changes that give us reason to believe Duke should win this one easily. Most importantly, Boston College has an all new inexperienced coaching staff in which I had to dig deep in order to find any info on them as their experience is lacking and I have never graded them in the past. Most coaches I have grading scales that go back to 2016. Their head coach, Jeff Hafley has bounced around from various schools as an assistant and was never even a sole offensive or defensive coordinator before let alone a head coach. Their offensive coordinator, Frank Cignetti Jr, last held an offensive coordinator role at the collegiate level back in 2011 at Rutgers where his offense ranked 108th in ypp. Their defensive coordinator is in the same boat as their head coach, extremely young and never held any sole coordinating role and just various assistant jobs at small school. Duke returns their entire established coaching staff that has already made great strides within their program since joining. Head coach David Cutliffe will be the play-caller this year for Duke, a responsibility he hasn’t had since 2007 at Tennessee where his offense ranked 35th in ypp (16th in ypp in 2006). They fought Notre Dame tough week 1 (and covered the spread) and will be facing Boston College in their first game. I think Duke wins this one easily by two TD’s so we make our only two unit bet this week.

Georgia Tech +7.5 (-112) Risking 1.12 units to win 1 units
Going back to the well here this week as this Georgia Tech team looked too good in their first game against FSU (granted Noles looked terrible) But what I really liked about this team was new QB, Jeff Sims. He has major potential no doubt as he has that un-measurable ability to fall forward and at least gain 3-4 yards on even broken down plays. In the opener he ran for 5 yards per carry and was able to get the down and distance numerous times on his own with his legs on 3rd and short. His arm looks great too although he made a few big time mistakes with two horrible INT’s but that’s expected with any true freshman QB and hopefully he limits those mistakes going forward. This will be UCF’s first game, although they return a strong regime from last season, when you factor in their SOS, their great numbers are a little inflated. Sagarin has their SOS ranked 82nd last season getting to face only one top 30 team where they lost by 3 to Cincinnati and gave up almost 200 yards on the ground and 5 ypc. They were gashed on the ground for almost 200 yards and 5.00 ypc against Pitt, Houston, Tulane, and Cincinnati (their toughest competition). Georgia tech had a much tougher schedule in the ACC and played two top 10 teams. Ten UCF players this season have opted out due to covid and personal matters including two defensive starters and 3 offensive lineman. I think this will be a one possession game and both teams should put up a lot of points. Worst case scenario the dynamic Sims puts together a late drive where UCF is in prevent defense down by two TD’s.

Pitt/Syracuse Under 49 (-109) Risking 1.09 units to win 1 units
I'm really excited about this Pitt team as they had 8 freshman starters last season and are ranked 27th on Phil Steele's experience chart and have 3rd year starter senior starter Kenny Pickett returning. Their defense finally performed at a Pat Narduzzi level ranking 4th in ypp allowed, 9th in TFLs and 6th in sack % after struggling in his first few seasons. 70% of their total tackles from last season return and their defense should be one of the best in the ACC. As Syracuse showed in Week 1 their team is very in-expierenced ranking 108th in the exp chart. Last week UNC racked up 11 TFLs and 7 sacks against this Syracuse team and held them to 6 points. I suspect even worse offensive numbers for Syracuse this week as their new coaching staff struggles to implement their systems. Dino Babers returned for his 5th year but both of his coordinators are brand new. In the last 4 years head to head, Narduzzi is up 3-1 (2-1-1 ATS) against Dino. I think Pitt can cover the spread but really love the under as Pitt’s offense struggled last year under offensive coordinator Mark Whipple ranking 100th in ypp. Whipple had a good run at Umass from ‘98-’03. But Since his return in ‘14 he has really struggled going 16-44 in 5 seasons as Umass head coach from 2014-’18. (Not sure how he got this job). Heavy lean on Pitt if you can get -21 but I think I'm just going to go with the under on this one as I think it could be a ugly 27-10 type win for Pitt as they won’t put up that many points.

Miami/ Louisville Under 64.5 (-103) Risking 1.03 units to win 1 units
I like how this number keeps going up as the public sees this as no-brainer over due to Louisville being such a potent offense and having such a horrible defense last year (ranking 112th in ypp). Miami under Diaz has had one of the best defenses year in and year out despite having a terrible offense. This year their offense should be able to move the ball and keep the clock rolling with King running the offense- they ran 65% of downs last week. Louisville is a run-first team as they ran for 62% of their plays last season but don’t expect them to get much movement against this Miami front. Last year Miami won in a shootout 52-27 where Miami had two easy TD’s on short fields after a muffed punt recovery and a shanked punt by Louisville's punter. It seems like both defenses got caught off guard as Miami got a few big plays but I expect both defenses to be better prepared for each other this year. Both offenses struggled giving up TFL’s last week even though they had very weak competition, Miami allowed 8 against UAB and Louisville gave up 10 against Western Kentucky. Last season Louisville really struggled with the TFL’s ranking dead last giving up 9.85 TFLs per game. I think this game ends with both teams putting up only 20 points in a close game as both teams try to control the clock and keep their offenses on the field.

[SEAHAWKHARRY]

Good luck bud

[Smutbucket]

Thanks Harry. Rough go at it last week - always happens with my Hurricanes team. Initially I leaned hurricanes but didn't want to take again and then leaned over and then switched to under. Just need to layoff any hurricanes games although this year they look great

Week 3 Results: 1-3 (-3.39 units)
Season YTD: 7-5 (+2.16 units)

Week 4:
Ole Miss +14.5 (-112) Risking 2.24 units to win 2 units
In steps an all new coaching staff at Ole Miss with a veteran team and I am excited to see where this program can go under the new direction. Say what you will about the controversial Lane Kiffin, he’s a proven offensive winner bringing Top 20 offenses (in yards per play) to 3 different programs in 6 of his last 11 seasons. His average offense in ypp over the last 11 years is ranked 25th, which is very impressive over such a long tenure in 3 different conferences. At FAU and Alabama his first season implementing his offensive system were the most successful and he has an exciting sophomore returning starter John Plumlee so I don’t think this offense will struggle to adjust much and should be very explosive this season. Plumlee may be the fastest guy on the field on Saturday and he broke every rushing record for Ole Miss QB’s last season rushing for 1,023 yards even though he didn't start the first 3 games of the season. More exciting than their head coach hire is his defensive coordinator DJ Durkin, who I have rated as one of the top 20 defensive coordinators in college football. Although he struggled as a head coach at Maryland, as defensive coordinator he has led two top 10 defenses in ypp allowed at Michigan and UF. Dan Mullen enters his 3rd year with Todd Grantham which should be a very good defense once again, but I am not sold on the offensive production with Kyle Trask leading. This is a guy who got beat out by Felipe Franks last season but took over the starting role only after he went down to injury. Gators lose 5 of their top 7 passing targets and almost 50% of their total receiving yards. Trask will no longer have an arsenal of weapons to throw to like he did last season. I'm reading a lot of hype for this Florida team, returning 4 of 5 starters on an offensive line as it’s some sort of automatic indication of a veteran or good squad, but let's not forget that this offensive line struggled all of last season, ranking 94th in line yards, 125th in opportunity rate, 117th in power success rate, and 97th in stuff rating. Without Lamical Perine in the backfield I suspect these numbers will improve slightly but this will still be an offensive line that is the weakest point of this team. This is a great spot to get 14+ points with a team that went 4-8 last season but underwent heavy offseason personal moves facing off against a team that went 11-2 against a soft schedule (outside of their required SEC foes). Locking this one in early as we get the two touchdowns covered with the extra half point.

[Smutbucket]

Week 4 Adds:
Auburn vs Kentucky Under 50 (-108) Risking 1.08 units to win 1 units
Both defenses are the strengths of these teams, especially their secondary's. There will be some of the best corners in college football in this game and we have two QBs that struggle under pressure. Terry Wilson returns to the starting role after being injured in the 2nd game last season and Lynn Bowden Jr who provided an offensive spark for Kentucky in the 2nd half of the season goes off to the NFL. Wilson struggled in 2018 ranking 129th against pressure according to PFF grades. Expect to see a heavy dose of the run for Kentucky, like they did all of 2018, running 62% of the time ranking 13th in college football. They will rely on their dominant offensive line who will probably be one of the best units in college football as they were already highly rated last season and 4 of 5 starters return. For Auburn, I am excited to see what new OC Chad Morris can do teamed up with Gus Malzahn but I don’t think it will be a quick transition. Bo Nix struggled last season in almost all PFF passing grade categories and sits ranked 105th for QBs. I think this will be a typical great low scoring hard fought SEC matchup, no easy busted blown coverage TDs and every yard will be hard earned on the ground as the clock ticks away and we stay well under the total of 50.

Iowa State ML (-132) Risking 1.32 units to win 1 units
It's safe to say Iowa State got caught unprepared for their FBS opponent UL Lafayette in week 1 losing 31-14 in a game they were huge favorites and have so much hype coming into the season but I expect them to bounce back well after a week off. The QB mismatch in the game is just too much to ignore. Max Duggan is one of the lowest rated QBs according to PFF ranking 126th in accurate pass rate and 116th in a clean pocket. Third year starter Brock Purdy is set to have a breakout season after having his numbers drop off a bit after his 1st year. He has the reliable TE Charlie Kolar back to throw to who was the highest rated Power 5 TE according to PFF. Purdy knows how to protect the ball and rarely throws INTs, only racking up 9 INTs last season on 475 pass attempts. In contrast, Duggan threw 10 INTs on only 339 pass attempts so it’s safe to assume we should win the turnover battle in this one and get a few INT’s with the experienced defense in Iowa State returning 8 starters. They are a defense that doesn’t allow big plays using 3 safeties; their defense was ranked 23rd in explosive drive rate allowed last season. Teams in the BIG 12 like TCU rely on the big play even though their offense has struggled to find it since losing Delton. I think Iowa State wins this one easily and they show up to live up to their hype.

Arkansas +28 (-107) Risking 1.07 units to win 1 units
This is just too many points to give to Arkansas in the first game against a completely revamped Georgia team. Georgia comes into the season ranking 120th in Phil Steele's experience chart with only 33% of their total offensive yards returning. Their new offensive line will have a combined 39 starts, ranking 116th in the nation. Georgia also brings in a new offensive system and coordinator Todd Monken and Jamie Newman opted out of the season. Arkansas made some good hires to replace their coaching staff as well with Kendall Briles and Barry Odom. Briles is very young but has still lead 3 offenses to top 15 ypp’s at (10th) FAU, (3rd) Baylor, and (13th) Houston. He struggled at FSU last season but did not have the tools with Blackman at QB. I'm not a big fan of Feleipe Franks but he should be experienced enough to at least keep this game within 4 TDs. He has some weapons around him in Treylon Burks and Rakeem Boyd, who had 5 rushing TDs of 50+ yards or more last season, ranking 2nd amongst all RBs. Let’s take all these points in the first game for both of these teams where they both may take some time to adjust and make mistakes on both sides of the ball. Only need one big mistake with this many points to stay close.

Duke +4.5 (-112) Risking 1.12 units to win 1 units
Despite getting blown out by 20 last week against Boston College, the game should have been much closer than the score appeared. Duke just had a -4 in the TO margin including one on BC’s 5 yard line and one on their own 10 yard line. That combined with a couple big plays on busted coverages and you have a very misleading blowout. Virginia was one of my favorite teams to bet on last season but that was with Perkins leading the team who is now gone as well as 75% of their total offensive yards produced last year. Virginia loves to blitz and bring pressure on defense but Cutliffe’s quick pass offense is the perfect counter to an aggressive defense. He has stubbornly been one of the few coaches to continue the quick pass game and not implement the RPO. In 2018 they led the country in quick drop back passes and in 2019 they ranked 7th. Virginia had a few players test positive COVID so this will be their first game of the season and expect to see a little rust as Mendenhall adjusts to his new QBs and has a conservatives play call and rely on his elite offensive line and defense to win this game. I think this will be a close one score game so we take all these points as the market over-reacts to Dukes big loss last week.

[Smutbucket]

Week 4 Results: 3-2 -0.36 units
Season YTD: 10-7 (+1.8 units)


Week 5: (write-ups below) (will be more added tomorrow)
LA Tech TT Over 15.5 (-137)
SouthCarolina/UF Under 57 (-105)
Georgia -6.5 (-114)
UNC -13.5 (-116)

Week 5:
Louisiana Tech TT Over 15.5 (-137) Risking 1.37 units to win 1 units
Shop this around, some books have anywhere from 15.5-17.5. As long as you’re getting 17 (be careful of hook- I think this is a safe bet). BYU defense getting too much respect for holding two teams that have had major offseason changes and were under-prepared to 7 and 3 points. Although Louisiana Tech loses 3 year starter J’mar Smith at QB, they do return their top two rushers (that accounted for almost 1500 yards on the ground) and all but one of their top WR’s. New QB Luke Anthony stole the starting job in Week 1 after poor performance by Aaron Allen and led his team down by 17 back to beat Southern Miss. Last week he went off and gained his confidence against Houston Baptist averaging 10.5 yards per pass and putting up 5 TDs. He has great deep ball accuracy that really opens up the running game for this LA tech team. They should be able to run all over this BYU defense (although they've only given up 138 yards on the ground this season in 2 games) they ranked 102nd in line yards last year and 58th in yards per rush attempt with much of the same squad back. Louisiana Tech also likes to dial up the tempo to catch defenses off guard and they ranked 28th in plays per game last season. I don’t have much faith in Louisiana Tech's defense so I'm just taking this team total over as BYU should be able to score at will also and worst case scenario we are getting blown out but still reach this low number as BYU takes its foot off the gas and brings in backups if they are up big. We also have a great freshman kicker who hit a 50 yarder last week but I think we get 3 TDs and don’t even need his leg.


South Carolina/UF Under 57 (-105) Risking 1.05 units to win 1 units
In this head to head matchup between these two teams that have seen each other every year for decades the total has sailed over the relatively low totals set for the last 3 years (being that these rivalry SEC games were very low scoring and went under the previous 7 out of 8 matchups). Both of these teams' first games last week sailed over the totals too as oddsmakers had both of these teams matchups well below their projected outcome. But there’s reason to believe this game will be very different. In last year's matchup, both defenses actually held the offenses in check relatively well forcing 14 punts in the game but their was 21 points scored on short fields after two turnovers one by each team in their own territory and then a turnover on downs for the gamecocks after trying to put together a late drive with 7 min left and down by 11. Also this year we have a new coordinator for the gamecocks who will be getting rid of the hurry-up no huddle offense that South Carolina struggled to implement the last few seasons under coordinator Bryan McClendon. Bobo and Muschamp both like slow possession smash mouth football where you run the ball down for 3-4 yards every down. They will chew up the clock and rely on their defense to make plays and not give up many points either. I love this under and if it weren’t for all my two unit bets going to shit lately with bad beats, I would make this a two unit bet. But I’m taking a break from two unit bets for a while as the last few beats have been brutal including last week's Ole Miss game where they had so many opportunities to cover the 1.5 we lost by but somehow came up short (the two-unit curse).


Georgia -6.5 (-114) Risking 1.14 units to win 1 units
Georgia’s offense sputtered in the first half last week under expected starter D’wan Mathis who’s first 6 possessions led to 5 punts and an INT, but Stetson Bennett took over and looked sharp completing 20 for 29 for 211 yards and 2 TDs not INTs and put up 27 points in half the game. Their defense that ranked 2nd last year in ypp allowing 4.1 ypp and only gave up 12ppg returns mostly intact with 11 of top 14 tacklers returning. They should be another Top 10 defense under defensive guru Kirby Smart who has led two top 10 defenses in ypp since being at UGA and an average ranking of 18th. Auburn's offense should struggle to move the ball. Bo Nix can put together a great highlight reel but far too often he’s back-pedaling, taking huge TFLs, or throwing inaccurately. Last year he ranked 105th according to PFF and 107th in a clean pocket with only a 51.3% accurate pass rate, ranking 47th. I love Chad Morris and Gus Malzahn but they need a better QB in order to have an elite team. They lost 4 of 5 starters on their offensive line and it showed in week 1 only rushing for 3 yards per carry for 91 yards against Kentucky. Auburn's secondary also only returns one starter so expect to see a drop-off from last year's secondary that ranked 16th in yards per pass attempt allowed (UGA was #1 of course). Georgia wins this game easily as Kirby Smart draws up a great defensive plan to take advantage of Bo Nix’s shortcomings.


UNC -13.5 (-116) Risking 1.16 units to win 1 units
I already talked a lot about my concerns for BC’s coaching staff in my write-up in Week 3 when they matched up against Duke. Fortunately for them Duke’s team lacks any ball possession skills (14 turnovers in 3 games) and a couple blown coverages which led to BC blowing them out. Last week they struggled against a weak Texas State (won 3 games last season in the sunbelt) and I think they are about to get blown out by a very good UNC team this week. Sam Howell was ranked 23rd last season according to PFF and 5th when having a clean pocket. He has a great deep ball (ranking 11th in big time throw rate last year) and gained valuable experience last year under 1st year coordinator Phil Longo. UNC threw more out of RPO’s than any other Power 5 school last season and completed them at a higher percentage rate (86%) than any other team - and that was in Sam Howell’s first year. All of his major offensive weapons return including Michael Carter who passed 1000 yards last season and averaged 5.67 yards per carry. This should be a very explosive offense and I don’t see how Boston College’s new offense can keep up with these experienced veterans. UNC wins in a blowout.

[Smutbucket]

Week 5 Additions:
Iowa State +7 (-102) 1.5x
Iowa State ML (+234) .5x
Texas Tech ML (+107) 1.5x
Alabama/Texas A&M Under 53.5 (-105)

Week 5 Additions:
Iowa State +7 (-102) Risking 1.53 units to win 1.5 units
Iowa State ML (+234) Risking .5 units to win 1.17 units
I’ve already talked a lot about this Iowa State team as I’ve been on them twice already this season, losing the opener and then last week against TCU where the final score was a lot closer than it should have been but Iowa State let TCU hang around. Lincoln Riley has been blessed his entire career at Oklahoma to have elite veteran transfers at QB when Baker Mayfield, Kyler Murray, and Jalen Hurts were his starters. This year, though, I expect there to be drop off in offensive production under 1st year highly touted red shirt freshman Spencer Rattler. He is obviously not the athlete that his predecessors were and expect there to be plenty of freshman mistakes against an Iowa State secondary that is one of the better defenses in the BIG 12. They ranked 34th last season in yards per pass attempt and 36th in PFF coverage stats. More concerning for Oklahoma is how is their defense going to stop a very good and experienced Iowa State offense under Brock Purdy. Oklahoma’s secondary (like most of the BIG 12) is notoriously awful and poor tacklers. Last year they ranked 83rd in passing efficiency allowed (which was a big improvement from the year before ranking 111th) There isn’t much reason for those numbers to improve much under 2nd year DC, Alex Grinch - who’s only experience as the sole DC was at Washington State where his defense had an average ranking of 60th in ypp allowed in his 3 years. Iowa State has this game circled after losing last year to Oklahoma by 1 after missing the two point conversion to tie the game late. Lincoln Riley struggles against the tougher competition since being at Oklahoma his Sooners are 4-5 against Top 10 competition and this Iowa State program is in place to be a Top 25 team this year despite losing it’s first game once it takes down the rest of the BIG 12. There is no way this is not a one possession game at worst as Oklahoma’s defense shouldnt be able to stop Iowa State at all and I think Iowa State wins outright so we take the ML too. Not technically a 2 unit bet either so the curse does not apply (nods to gambling gods)

Texas Tech ML (+107) Risking 1.5 units to win 1.6 units
Lots of reasons to like this Texas Tech team to upset Kansas State. Kansas State has one of the most inexperienced teams in the nation (113th in exp chart), especially their offensive line that has only 2 career starts prior to coming into the season, ranking 130th in the nation. It has shown in the first two games as they have rushed for a total of 2.42 yards per carry and a total of 157 yards in their first two games. PFF has them graded out to a 47.6 in pass blocking and a 58.4 in run blocking. (both categories ranking 57th out of 72 teams who have played). They’ve allowed only 3 sacks, but have also given up 9 hits and 13 hurries to their QB Skylar Thompson. Their coverage has been even worse - ranking 71st out of the 72 teams in its first two games. Surprisingly, Alan Bowman also grades out to a much better passer than Skylar Thompson, especially against pressure as Bowman ranks 28th vs pressure and Thompson ranks 80th. He also has a more accurate throw ranking 27th in accurate pass rate where Thompson only ranks 66th. Texas Tech’s secondary although struggled last season, has 10 broken up passes in the first two games. Senior defensive end Eli Howard should give Kansas State all types of problems as he already has 12 hurries and 2 batted down passes on the year. Last year, Texas Tech lost a hard fought battle but in a game where they outgained Kansas State 512 to 372 yards, but lost the turnover margin and gave up a kickoff return for a TD which was ultimately the difference in the game. I have Texas Tech with the better coaching staff (although not much) so I think all these contributing factors lead this to being a 1.5x unit bet. Lets go Red Raiders!

Alabama/Texas A&M Under 53.5 (-105) Risking 1.05 to win 1 units
No writeup sorry.

[Smutbucket]

Week 5 Results: 3-5 (-2.46 units)
Season YTD: 13-12 (-0.66 units)

Week 6:
Louisville -5 (-110) Risking 1.1 units to win 1 units
Louisville TT over 34.5 (-104) .5x Risking .52 units to win .5 units
Louisville's offensive line has poor numbers this season but they have faced two of the most aggressive teams when it comes to defensive pressure in Miami and Pitt. Last week their offense struggled in pass protection allowing 4 sacks, 11 hurries, and 19 QB pressures. This won’t be the case against a Georgia tech team who is nowhere in the same league as Narduzzi’s squad. Georgia Tech's defensive line only has 6 sacks on the season, and ranks 43rd in the pass rush according to PFF (where Pitt ranks 7th and Miami 19th). Louisville also loves to run the ball, ranking 28th this season in rushing play % (and 10th last season) which is a weakness of this Georgia Tech defense who ranks 93rd in yards per rush attempt allowed this season (last year ranked 96th) . As fast and elusive as Jeff Sims is, he still struggles with mistakes and ranks 139th amongst QBs according to PFF with only 3 TDs and 8 INTs. He also has two fumbles on the year, losing one of them. Even if we somehow don’t win the turn-over battle in this game, I don’t see how the Georgia Tech offense can keep up with this explosive Louisville offense that should put up 35+ without issue.

Miami +14.5 (-102) Risking 1.02 units to win 1 units
Miami TT Over 23.5 (-114) Risking 1.14 units to win 1 units
Miami ML (+391) .25x Risking .25 units to win .98 units
Since tracking my picks online publicly, I am (9-10) ATS (-1.67 units since 2012) when betting on my hometown team Miami but that's all about to turn around this season. Maybe it's my hometown bias but this Miami team is very good this year and will make this a competitive game with Clemson unlike years past. D’Eriq King grades out to the 4th best QB in college ball with over 50 pass attempts, and he has more attempts than the few graded above him (frigging Trevor Lawrence) and still 0 INTs. He grades out as a better runner and ball handler than Lawrence. In 2018 when both of these players last played a full season, King graded out higher than Lawrence ranking 3rd nationally with Lawrence ranking 8th. Venables runs a very aggressive defense and the best way to counter that is a mobile veteran QB like King. Last week, Brennan Armstrong with Virginia was able to put up 23 points against Clemson and run for almost 100 yards picking up a lot of crucial first downs showing chinks in a young defense that Miami should be able to expose. Miami has routinely under-performed the last 10 years in the big games which is fresh in the public's mind driving this high number but this is a different coaching staff (Manny has been their defensive leader here since 2016 but defense has never been their issue) and new group of players with an actual good starting QB unlike years past. The weather should also be in our favor as heavy rains are and winds are expected and Miami won’t have to worry so much about the deep ball which Clemson’s offense heavily relies on.

[Fred The Hammer]

I'm on Louisville too. GL brother!! GT got rolled by a mediocre Cuse squad. Louisville always has pretty good athletes, but just had a bad 2nd half vs Pitt. I still like Cunningham pretty well compared to GT's freshman. Also feel like Lville has an average defense which is much better then they've had in the past few years. Oddshark has Louisville 30-20

[Smutbucket]

Ugh, can't overcome all those mistakes, Friday night juju for sure. 7 out of 10 times those two teams plays Louiville covers 5 for sure.

Week 6 adds: (write-ups below)
2 team ML Parlay (-108): UVA (-290) and Pitt (-230)
Virginia/NC State under 58.5 (+101)
Duke - 1 (-107)
Georgia -12.5 (-111) .
Auburn/Arkansas Under 45.5 (-111)

Week 6 additions:
2 team ML Parlay (-108). Virginia (-290) and Pitt (-230) Risking 1.08 units to win 1 units
NC State comes into its 3rd straight road game squeaking out an upset win against Pitt, one they were very fortunate to get many breaks in order to win. They converted only 9 of 18 possessions on 3rd and 4th down, and around 4 of which I counted were bs flags including a few on the last drive to win down by 5 with 1:44 left. Virginia’s offense looks great under new lefty QB, Armstrong who is also averaging 4.25 ypc despite having faced one of the toughest defenses in Clemson. He had some great throws too and looks to be a true dual threat QB, true to Mendenhall’s style and recruiting prowess. Virginia’s also a very disciplined team under Mendenhall’s coaching, ranking 2nd this year in penalties per play (last year they ranked 20th). Although Doeren returns as head coach for NC State, he brings in two new coordinators, both of which I have rated pretty low as they have never done anything impressive in their careers. I can’t believe I find myself fading this BC team again but the numbers are what they are. As inexperienced as this new coaching staff is, early on the season it can also be advantageous as many teams do not know how to strategize or prepare for them (also being +4 in TO margin against Duke really helped). This Pittsburgh team will be fired up after losing to NC State last week in a game they should have won but made too many mistakes and bad flags (and somehow got stopped for four downs on 1st and goal on the 1). Pitt has one of the most experienced teams returning ranking 27th in experience charts as they were extremely young last year and I expect the experience and cohesiveness within the coaching staff will ultimately prevail and they pull off this win. It’s tough to take Pitt with any amount of points so we take the ML. I’m going to start posting more two team parlays and teasers as they were pretty successful for me back in ‘12-’15 but I got away from them as the tracking sites I used don’t currently offer them (but will be soon hopefully soon)

Virginia/NC State under 58.5 (+101) Risking 1 unit to win 1.01 units
Despite these two teams going 5-0 on overs so far this season, I love this under. UVA’s defense did what it could against Clemson but may be the best offense in college football with Lawrence at the helm. They should have a field day against this NC State offense that has struggled protecting their passer, ranking 70th (out of 75 teams) in pass blocking. Mendenhall loves to bring pressure and although this year they haven't had big success yet (only two games and one team best in the land) I expect them to be a big influence on this one and effect sophomore QB Devin Leary, NC State's QB who started the last 6 games last season (and lost all 6). Leary didn’t even play the first game as Hockman outperformed him in the off-season and re-took the starting role but after Hockman did poorly against Wake, Leary was named the starter in the 2nd game this season. Despite putting up 33 points in their first 3 games, I expect their offense to struggle as they played some easy defenses and are still learning the system of new OC, Tim Beck. A coordinator I have rated a C- as he’s one of these guys who came from a great program at Ohio State in ‘15-’16, but wasn’t calling the plays then and was just a co-OC. In ‘17 he went to Texas where in his first year the offense really struggled ranking 101st in ypp and in his 2nd year they only improved to 74th. In his 3rd year (last year) they improved all the way to 24th in ypp but I can only imagine how inflated that number is having to face BIG 12 defenses. I really think UVA wins this game easily like 32-17 so I will gladly take this high number and sit back and enjoy watching this experienced UVA defense that returns 8 starters and 80% of their tackles from last season.

Duke -1 (-107) Risking 1.07 units to win 1 units
Battle of the bottom of the ACC surely won’t get much attention from the media, but I find nice little value in this game betting on Duke. Hopefully this Duke team who has struggled with protecting the ball this season (14 turnovers in the first 3 games) continues to protect the ball like they did last week against Virgina only giving up 1 turnover. Duke has also struggled against the pass rush giving up 17 sacks on the season but Syracuse hasn't been effective this season generating a pass rush as they are currently ranked 60th in pff pass rush grades out of 75 teams that have played. Syracuse’s offensive line has been decimated with injuries this year, so much so that they used two defensive lineman on one of their heavy packages on their 2nd offensive touchdown last week against G-tech. They have 15 sacks on the season but in only 3 games compared to Duke who has had four games. Duke ranks 21st with an 8.7% sack % so they should be able to get some pressure, especially if they get Syracuse in obvious passing situations which seems like it should happen often if Syracuse can’t run the ball. They were unable to break 70 yards in the first two games averaged less than 2 yards per carry, and then against Georgia Tech they were able to rack up 163 yards on the ground but on 41 carries which is less than 4 ypc. Duke has also faced tougher competition this season ranking 10th in sagarin SOS ratings and Syracuse ranking 22nd (although I feel like the gap should be wider but UNC getting lots of respect on sagarin) Duke wins this game, we probably wont watch much of live, and just catch the condensed game films.

Georgia -12.5 (-111) Risking 1.11 units to win 1 units
Is Tennessee always going to be overrated and over-hyped? Just because they are 2-0 against two crap teams this season and put up 31 points in each? Not sure what justified the seemingly low 15 point opening line let alone a drop of 3 points. What should make us believe that this year won’t be similar to last year's outcome where UGA dominated with so many of the same starters returning? Tennessee returns 9 on offense and 8 on defense this season. Although UGA’s offense is very green, their defense will return 8 starters that completely shut-down this Tennessee offense last year holding them to 14 points (only in the 1st half too). Last year, UGA brought the pressure, racking up 6 sacks and 21 hurries. Tennessee had no answer for the pass rush and were predictable in the run game only rushing for 2.4 ypc - a number UGA’s offense almost tripled averaging 5.8 ypc against this same Tennessee front. Tennessee’s front in contrast got 0 sacks and 3 hurries against UGA’s offense. Tennessee has struggled pass blocking in the two games they have played; they are currently ranked 66th in pass blocking. A trend that continues from last year as all 5 starters on their offensive line returns that were ranked 122nd in pass blocking last season. Yes so yes this is an “experienced” bunch, but at this point we can go ahead and call them a bad line. UGA’s offense looked great last week against a very tough Auburn team where they won by 21 and no reason to suspect this game isn't a bigger blow-out than that.

Auburn/Arkansas Under 45.5 (-111) Risking 1.11 units to win 1 units
I think we will see a heavy dose of the run as Hurricane Delta is expected to dump rain on tjis game and heavy sustained winds. The number has already dropped 6 points, pretty much the max you see bookies drop in these extreme weather cases, but they are never enough. Even without the weather in our favor I like this under for many reasons. Barry Odom is one of these defensive coordinators who schemes great but struggled once taking over the head coaching duties. As a DC at Memphis his defense was consistently in the top 30 and ranked 14th in his 3rd in ypp allowed. Then he came to Missouri and was the DC his first year where he ranked 3rd in ypp allowed, but then, in ‘16 he became head coach and somehow his defense took a turn for the worst, ranking 51st in ‘17 and dropping all the way to 67th in ‘18. Arkansas’s coverage has been great and they surprised everyone last week shutting-down Leach’s air raid with a PFF coverage grade of 85.5 - breaking up 4 passes and reeling in 3 INTs. Despite playing against two great offenses in Georgia and Miss. State, they have some of the highest rankings on defenses, ranking 14 in ypp allowed, 3rd in RZ scoring %, 18th in 3rd down conversion percentage, and 6th in yards per pass. You would think those numbers were Auburn's defenses but Odom is doing a great job with his defense. Although Auburn’s defense struggled last week I suspect they will bounce back strongly like most Kevin Steele’s defenses. Arkansas may also be missing a key part of their offense Rakim Boyd who is nursing a foot injury. This game doesn’t break 40 and it will be enjoyable to watch as both offenses struggled to get any footing and slip and slide all over the field.

[Smutbucket]

Week 6 Add: Miss. State +3.5 (-105) Risking 1.05 units to win 1 units. I'll bite

[Smutbucket]

Week 6 Results: 2-9 (-6.25 units)
Season YTD: 15-21 (-6.91 units)

Week 7:
Cinn/Tulsa Under 45.5 (-112) Risking 1.12 units to win 1 units
I’m hating unders this year as overs are hitting at a 55% clip on the season in college FBS as offenses no longer struggle to communicate on the road from packed stadiums. But the numbers give us all kinds of good indicators as to why this is a great under to take. At the line of scrimmage, both defensive lines significantly outrank their offensive counterparts in adjusted line yards, opportunity rank, power success rank, and stuff rankings. Both defensive lines are in the top 15 of almost all categories - something neither offensive line has faced yet this season and yet still have struggled to put up good numbers. Last week, Cincinnati was playing shorthanded on the line as 3 offensive lineman sat out due to unspecified injuries/ailments and will most likely be sitting out this week too and are listed as questionable. FEI and F+ numbers also show a significant advantage for the defenses on both sides of the ball. Cincinnati’s defense outranks Tulsa offense by an average of 50.25 ranks in FEI, Points Per Drive (OPD), Available yards per drive (OYD) and net yards per play (OPP). Tulsa’s defense outranks Cincinnati's offense by an average of 65.5 ranks in the same categories. Take the under and lock in while you can at the key number 45 to be safe but 44 should be good regardless.

Ole Miss ML (-138) Risking 2.07 units to win 1.5 units
Arkansas is very fortunate to be 3-0 ATS on the season as their stats show a different story and they caught a sleeping Georgia in the first half of their first game, and have kept it close with an overrated Auburn and Miss. State team. Somehow Sagarin ratings have Arkansas’s SOS ranked higher than Ole Miss, but I disagree and think Ole Miss has had the toughest schedule to date having played Florida, Kentucky, and Alabama. The Rebels offense is finally syncing up and Matt Corral looks like a much better QB than the one who battled for playing time last season. PFF grades him as the 7th best QB (with over 100 pass attempts) despite having some of the worst pass blocking and constantly under pressure he has managed well and protected the football. Fortunately the pass rush is not an area where this Arkansas defense has excelled, ranking 71st in pass rush out of the 76 teams who have played. Ole Miss offense should put up 50+ considering they have already averaged 42 points on the season and I don’t see how this one dimensional Arkansas offense can keep up and ride on the shoulders of Felipe Franks. Arkansas’s rushing attack has been non-existent, averaging 2.4 yards per rush and grading out 76th out 76 teams in run blocking according to PFF. Granted Ole Miss defense is pretty awful but they should be able to get a few stops (or Franks will stop himself by a dumb mistake) and I don’t see how this one is even close which is why we lock in for 1.5 units on the ML.

[Smutbucket]

Week 7 Adds:
Miami/Pitt Over 47.5 (-109) Risking 1.09 units to win 1 units
Miami’s offense should come out firing against this Pitt defense that relies on applying pressure and making QBs make mistakes. Problem is they won’t be able to bring down and contain King and he should be able to rack up plenty of yards on the ground as well as through the air. Only Zach Wilson has completed more deep balls then Kenny Pickett and you can be sure Pitt will take their fair share of deep shots like Clemson did when 2 of Miami’s 3 safeties were ejected for targeting (one of which will be sitting out first half of this game). Miami’s coverage has struggled in 3 of it’s four games (FSU blows) with a below 65 coverage rating at PFF. Both offenses prefer to throw the ball and I expect this to be a high scoring shootout.

UCF/Memphis Over 73.5 (-106) Risking 1.06 units to win 1 units
This matchup has a shootout written all over it. These two teams didn’t face off last year but did so twice in 2018 with the first game having a very high total of 80 which went under and then the 2nd matchup the game flew over the total of 65 with a total of 97 points. We have two returning veteran QBs who both averaged over 9 yards per pass last season. We have two offenses that like to run fast-tempo with UCF ranking 1st in plays per game (and a TOP% of only 45%) and Memphis ranking 12th in plays per game. Both teams are running almost 10 more plays per game then last season (and last year they were already up-tempo). Both defenses have struggled in the secondary, with Memphis ranking 58th in team passing efficiency defense and have already given up 9 passing plays over 25 yards in their first two games (in only 89 pass attempts) . UCF’s secondary has been degressing over the last 3 games, really struggling last week against Tulsa and a horrible PFF coverage rating of 43.8. Both defenses also struggle with tackling ranking 55th and 32nd (against soft teams too). UCF’s biggest weakness on offense has been their offensive line, struggling to give Gabriel time to throw ranking 66th in pass blocking but the defensive line is not a huge strength of this Memphis defense ranking 47th in sack %. Both offenses love to throw the ball (over 50% of the time) and both offenses out-rank the defenses in every FEI, F+, and SP+ ranking scales. Both defenses have made the most of turnover opportunities as UCF is averaging 4 take-aways per game and Memphis 2.5 per game. Both offenses have struggled to protect the ball with UCF giving away 1.7 turnovers per game and Memphis 2.5. Let’s hope we get a couple of these turn-overs in short fields and not after an 80 yard drive but I think this one goes well over the total as both teams will look to run-up the score against their AAC rivals. The weather should be perfect football weather, 60 degrees, and 0 chance of rain.

Georgia +4.5 (-113) Risking 1.13 units to win 1 units
Gerogia ML (+183) Risking .5 to win .92 units
I actually locked this in with my bookie at 7 before Saban got Covid but I didnt lock it in pickmonitor so I got the crappy number but figure you’re good and think UGA wins outright (will possibly add ML too). As good and explosive offenses have become in college football, the old adage runs true - defense wins games. And this Georgia has by far the best defense by the numbers and this Alabama defense has definitely taken a step back this season. According to F+ and SP+, UGA is ranked #1 on both scales - a rare feat. In FEI rankngs, they are ranked 2nd defensively, and 6th in points per drive, 2nd in available yards per drive and 4th in net yards per play. In contrast, Alabama’s FEI rankings are nowhere near as good, although they ranked 12th in FEI, their DPD ranks 55th, their DAY ranks 60th and DPP ranks 44th. Although Alabama’s offense ranks 1st in FEI, F+, and SP+, the most difficult defense they have faced was Texas A&M which has a crappy secondary themselves but are still much better than Missouri and Ole Miss’s defense, two teams Alabama heavily padded their stats against. Georgia is also in the top 10 of every defensive category that PFF grades, with Alabama not even in the Top 25 of ANY category. I love Stetson Bennett because he’s a smart game manager that doesnt give bad throws and can get yards on the ground too. I love this play and will most likely be adding the ML too closer to gametime as all the squares put their money on the bama ML.

UNC vs FSU Over 64 (-108) Risking 1.08 units to win 1 units
I don’t think the bookies could put a number high enough for this shootout. FSU’s offense looks much better with Blackman finally benched and Jordan Travis starting. He was very accurate on his deep balls against Notre Dame and was able to do lots of damage with his legs too rushing for almost 100 yards. FSU’s biggest problem on offense is their offensive line and Travis was scrambling for his life against Notre Dame but I don’t expect that to be the case against this UNC front. UNC defensive line does have an 8.2 sack% ranking 21st in FBS but 7 of their 11 sacks on the season came in the first game against a piss poor Syracuse. Both defenses have struggled and UNC’s PFF tackling ranking is currently ranked 72nd even against the poor teams they have had lots of mis-tackles. Last week, FSU’s defensive line was getting gashed by Notre Dame as they ran for 353 yards and 8.4 yards per carry. North Carolina’s rushing attack is currently ranked #1 according to PFF and they should have a field day after rushing for 400 yards last week against Virginia Tech. I already talked a lot about Howell in my last write-up and he’s living up to the hype this season completing 70% of his passes and averaging 9.3 yards per pass. We continue to see point total records being broken every week as not having packed stadiums seems to be a clear advantage to offenses and it doesn't look like the bookies have fully adjusted to that yet. This should be an enjoyable over to bet as well as both offenses score at will.

Kentucky +6.5 (+101) Risking 1 unit to win 1.01 units
Kentucky/Tenn Under 45.5 (-114) Risking 1.14 units to win 1 units
These two coaches are very familiar with each other and I can’t believe I am locking in another under but this matchup and this Kentucky team specifically are a recipe for unders this season. I can’t believe the market continues to favor Tennessee and give no respect to Kentucky this season. Kentucky’s defense is one of the best in the SEC with it’s lockdown corners Brandon Echols and Kelvin Joseph who held Mississippi State's defense to 0 points last season. Their edge rushers often drop into coverage too and have racked up two INTs on the season. Their defense is ranked in the Top 25 of most important defensive categories including yards per rush (ranked 12th), opponent 3rd down % (ranked 19th), opponent yards per pass (ranked 19th) and red zone scoring (ranked 7th). Tennessee defense has also been tough this season, ranking 20th in yards per rush allowed, 35th in completion percentage allowed, and 34th in red zone scoring percentage. Kentucky loves to control the clock and run slow methodical offenses allowing their run game to break defenses down over time and not go for the big play. They don't have much of a deep threat with Terry Wilson throwing. I expect this outcome to be much like the last two years where the two teams combined for 30 and 31 points combined. Kentucky will be in a revenge spot though and I think they get some push up front in their run game like UGA did last week racking up almost 200 yards on the ground. Both teams struggle with the kicking game as neither kicker has hit over 50% of their kicks on the season. This is a rare game where I take the total and the side but I think its a safe bet and worth a wager.

[Smutbucket]

Adding:
Mississippi State +4.5 (-109) Risking 1.09 units to win 1 units
Mississippi State ML (+167) .5x Risking .5 units to win .84 units
The media is bombarding us with the struggles of Leaches air raid offense but there’s much reason to believe that this will be a different story this game. Unlike Kentucky last week, Texas A&M has one of the worst secondaries in the league ranking 71st in coverage rating and 63rd in tackling ratings, according to PFF. I think they will put up plenty of yards and points like they did against LSU where they threw for 623 yards and 44 points. More surprisingly when I looked into this game was the quality of defense Miss. State has had so far this season. They are ranked #9th in sack%, 21st in opponent yards per pass allowed, 4th in yards per rush allowed, 4th in 3rd down conversion %, and 25th in completion % compare that to A&M who are ranked 55th in sack %, 73rd in opponent yards per pass, 23rd in yards per rush allowed, 64th in 3rd down conversion % and 72nd in completion % allowed. By the numbers, it almost feels like the wrong team is favored based on an over-reaction to last week's games. Texas AM took advantage of a terrible UF secondary and barely squeaked out a win thanks to a few key mistakes by Florida at pivotal times. Mond is one of those QBs who puts up great numbers against the weaker teams but struggles against the better defenses and should be under pressure and make a couple mistakes. Mississippi State pulls off the upset and the ESPN pundits will be back to talking about how great this team is like they were after they upset LSU week 1.

[Smutbucket]

Week 7: 4-6 (-2.37 units)
Season YTD: 19-27 (-9.28 units)

Week 8:
Louisville -6 (-109)
Iowa State +3.5 (-112)
Nebraska TT Over 19.5 (-146)
Rutgers +10.5 (-105)
Texas -10 (-112)
Missouri +3.5 (-107)
Northwestern -11 (-115)
SMU ML (-132)

Louisville -6 (-109) Risking 1.09 units to win 1 units
Despite coming off 4 straight losses, I like Louisville to come out firing this week. Defensively Louisville seemed to turn a corner last week as they held an experienced Notre Dame team to only 12 points. Notre Dame’s offensive line is one of the biggest, most experienced groups in the country and they struggled giving up 5 sacks and 8 hurries to Louisville’s front. Their secondary avoided any mistakes and broken coverages which led to big plays (and resulted in losses) to Miami and Gtech. Their offensive line has also shown an improving trend each week in PFF grades in pass protection, and FSU’s pass rush hasn’t been particularly effective this season ranking 69th in PFF. FSU currently has 10 players recently added to their injury report including starting QB Jordan Travis (listed as probable) who gave their offense a spark last week against a very overrated UNC team. North Carolina beat themselves with poor play-calling last week constantly throwing wide-receiver screens and running the ball despite not much push. The few times they did throw deep they were able to complete 6 of 9 in passes of 20 yards+ but somehow only 6 for 11 in short passes. Surprisingly, Louisville’s defense is much better than FSU;s in almost every category including opponents completion % (ranking 16), sack % (22nd) and red zone scoring % (ranking 28th). Louisville has been careless with the ball which led to many of their losses giving up 11 turnovers in the first 4 games but last game they had 0 turnovers despite wet conditions against Notre Dame. This is a revenge match for Louisville as they lost the last two years to this ACC rival and they have a much more experienced team and established coaching staff. FSU caught UNC by surprise but Louisville will be prepared to blow FSU out a lot like Miami did in week 3 vs FSU. Louisville is also the more disciplined team (#37th) in penalties per plays vs (69th) and we have the better kicker making 80% of his FG attempts opposed to FSU’s kicker who has only made 66%.

Iowa State +3.5 (-112) Risking 1.12 units to win 1 units
Im unimpressed with Oklahoma State’s body of work and think their #6 ranking is a little absurd. Sure they have some impressive numbers but that was beating up on the bottom of the Big 12 and Tulsa which isn’t saying much. Iowa State has redeemed themselves after losing their opener coming off 3 straight wins and showing a higher PFF grade in every game (in almost every category) with last games grading out to an 82.4 overall after beating down Texas Tech 31-15. The biggest question mark for Iowa State coming into the season was their offensive line as they ranked 122nd in experience charts but they are ranked in the top 25 of almost all FO line categories and are rushing for 5.2 yards per carry ranking 15th in the nation. Purdy rarely makes mistakes or takes sacks ranking 11th in the nation in sack% and only 1 INT on the year. Iowa State’s defense has shown that they are not just another BIG 12 push-over like most of their conference as they are only allowing 3 yards per carry on the season ranking 13th. The biggest concern for Oklahoma State will be their offensive line who despite playing 3 horrible teams, are ranked 70th in sack % allowed. Iowa State’s defense is great at applying pressure ranking 7th in the nation in sack %. Iowa State is also in a revenge spot here in this rivalry game where they lost last year even though they outgained and out possessed Oklahoma State last year controlling the ball for almost 60% of the game. Purdy will be looking for revenge as he gave up 3 INTs last year to Okie State including one for a TD that helped Okie State win by a TD.

Nebraska TT Over 19.5 (-146) Risking 1.46 units to win 1 units
Despite only scoring 7 points last year in this matchup, I really like Nebraska’s odds to put up 20+ points in this game. Almost their entire offense returns with 10 starters and I always liked Adrian Martinez (although he struggled with injuries last season) but he will have a short leash if he has a performance like he did last season throwing 3 INT’s against Ohio State. Frost is in his 3rd year of his system so he has no excuses and his offense should be explosive (and very fast paced) like they have been at all the other programs he has turned around. He brings in Matt Lubick, a friend he worked with back in Oregon as Co-OC and he brings a lot of knowledge and experience of working with great college coaches like Chris Peterson and Chip Kelly. Also what’s great about this pick is Ohio State only returns 4 starters on defense as well as for the 2nd year in a row getting a new DC, Kerry Coombs who will be his first ever job as a sole DC. Frost’s offenses have historically been too explosive and run so many plays that even if we are getting blown out I don't see how we don’t get at least 3 TDs and I think the point total will be closer to 2018 when Nebraska put up 31 points against Ohio State.

Rutgers +10.5 (-105) Risking 1.05 units to win 1 units
At first glance this game looks like a crapshoot between these two programs who are both undergoing major offseason changes but I like my odds with the better coaching staff and taking this many points. Schiano, one of the best defensive coaches in the league, returns to Rutgers and brings along a new OC Sean Gleeson who’s only experience at the FBS level was last year as OC at Oklahoma State where his offense ranked 30th in ypp. When Schiano was hired he went out of his way to poach Noah Vedral who saw some action last year at Nebraska when Martinez went down. On the other side Michigan State's program will see it’s first new head coach in 13 years, and Mel Tucker was only a head coach for the first time last year at Colorado where he struggled. Michigan State loses 5 of their top 7 tacklers, their starting QB, and it’s top 3 pass catchers from last year. They haven’t had a stand out QB in practice and we should see multiple QB’s if one of them starts to struggle. Michigan State’s offensive line has been a huge thorn in their side for the last two years and they are almost all returning this season (ranked 6th in o-line starts) so expect them to have issues facing one of the best defensive minds in the country. The public seems to be on Michigan State heavily yet the line continues to drop? The average gambler expects the same dumpster fire from this Rutgers program over the last few seasons, but this is a whole new coaching staff and coaching is everything at the college level so let's take the points.

Texas -10 (-112) Risking 1.12 units to win 1 units
Baylor’s another team that seems to be overrated despite only playing two very cupcake teams in Kansas and West Virginia (and losing one). Their offense has struggled to run the ball and only got 27 yards in week 5 against WVU. Baylor's defense is very green with only two returning starters and 35% of their tackles returning. Texas should be able to score at will and I don’t think Brewer will be able to keep with Texas’s offense. I think the bookies know it too as despite Texas losing by 14 to Baylor last year they still made them 8 point favorites this season? The line has moved because lots of money is coming in on Texas (despite bookies moving line 21 points from results of last year) as it seems like a great spot to bet them after two losses. At the line of scrimmage, Texas’s offensive line is in the Top 20 of most offensive line categories including first in power success rate. Texas’s defense's biggest problem is mis-tackles but Baylor doesn’t have any big playmakers like Oklahoma that will make you miss. They have also struggled on special teams which is a big reason they lost the last two games rating below a 50 PFF grading. They’ve played two more games than Baylor and are coming off a bye week where Baylor has had two weeks off and only played two very soft teams and I think they are about to get a wake up call under new head coach Dave Aranada as they face their first explosive BIG 12 offense and Larry Fedora struggles to keep pace.

Missouri +3.5 (-107) Risking 1.07 units to win 1 units
I like this matchup a lot even though Kentucky has won 5 straight against Missouri and blowing them out last year. Last year's conditions were pouring rain which heavily affected Missouri's pass-happy offense. This year they have no coach Drinkwitz and exciting new redshirt Freshman Connor Bazelek who completed 85% of his passes for 12 yards per attempt, 400 yards, and 4 TD’s two weeks ago against LSU. They have had plenty of time to rest and prepare for the one dimensional Kentucky who just came off a huge emotional upset win last week yet still have Georgia to look ahead to next week. It’s no secret Terry Wilson struggles to throw the ball and Missouri will surely force them to beat them through the air. Missouri’s defensive line has proven more than capable holding LSU to only 49 yards on the ground last week and holding Alabama’s offense to only 111 yards on the ground on 36 carries in week 1. Kentucky doesn’t really have an offense outside of a run game that relied on Lynn Bowden Jr last year but he’s gone now and Wilson is half the athlete he was. Kentucky also will be missing starting nose tackle Quinton Bohanna and I think Missouri should be able to get some yards on the ground too. This is a whole new offensive scheme that Kentucky has little time to prep for and Kentucky is still running the same old bland offense it has for years now that relies on it’s defense and I think Missouri pulls off the upset but we’ll take the points even though the number has dropped significantly from the opener. With my bookie I bought a half point for -120 and you should too just to be safe.

Northwestern -11 (-115) Risking 1.15 units to win 1 units
Despite coming off a 3-9 season last year I'm excited to see what this Northwestern team can do under new starting QB Peyton Ramsey who saw significant improvement from 2018 to 2019 and was ranked 24th last season in PFF for QBs. Northwestern has one of the most experienced teams returning ranking 2nd in Phill Steele's experience chart - opposed to Maryland who is ranked 114th in the experience chart. I have Maryland’s coaching staff as one of the lowest rated in the league between Locksley and Montgomery neither of which had any success on their own (Locksley piggybacked for 2 years as co-OC at bama which I guess got him this job). With 6 players opting out including their starting QB from last season Josh Jackson and two projected starters on the O-Line, I don’t see how this team will be prepared at all to face the experience of Northwestern and the one major thing that was holding Northwestern back last season was the QB play and thats replaced this year with a veteran starter so they may be a good team to ride after a 3-9 year. Cheers to the Big 10 being back.

SMU ML (-132) Risking 1.32 units to win 1 units
This is a true contrarian play as every third party tracking software I follow has handicappers picking Cincinnati (and early in week) at a much higher percentage than SMU. Cincinnati is 3-0 and has won handedly in each game but the hardest team they played was Army and their SOS is near the bottom of the league. Their starting QB Desmond Ridder has always struggled in seasons past with the offense and he had 3 INT’s last week against a terrible USF defense. Their offensive line has also struggled despite the soft schedule. SMU on the other hand has an explosive offense who has averaged 42 points per game in two years with Shane Buechele leading and I think they come up with a few big plays to pull off this win at home. It’s always nice when you know you're on Vegas’s side as this one my number one stand-out of one-sided bets so let's hope that stands true.

[Smutbucket]

Week 8 Results: 6-2 (+3.2 units)
Season YTD: 25-29 (-6.08 units)

Week 9:
Wake Forest -14 (-104)
Illinois +7.5 (+101)
Northwestern +2.5 (-112)
Baylor +3 (-111)
Notre Dame -21 (-106)
Indiana/Rutgers Under 53 (-106)
Penn State +10.5 (-115) 1.5x
Penn State ML (+292) .5x
Virginia +7.5 (-109)

Wake Forest -14 (-104) Risking 1.04 units to win 1 units
Always good to fade a 5th year senior QB, Rex Cullpepper, who’s only starting this season because the starter went down (DeVito) two games ago. More concerning for him is the tools he has around him that rank in the bottom of almost all PFF categories - (Receiving Rank: 92nd, Pass Block Rank: 69, Run: 73rd and Run Block Rank: 95th). Their defense is even worse - against Liberty the running lanes were so big you could drive a semi-truck through them. They were fortunate to only lose by only 17 to Liberty as they had two “key” turnovers (by key I mean either one that gives them an immediate redzone opportunity or one that takes a redzone opportunity for an opponent). Wake Forest’s offense can run and pass well with Sam Hartman at the helm as they ranked 5th in Pass grading PFF and 20th in Run grading PFF. Their receivers grade out to 9th including #1 Jaquarii Roberson who averages 13.8 yards per reception and catches 81% of passes thrown to him so far this season. Their biggest weakness is pass blocking where they rank 97th in sack rate % but the defensive line or the pass rush is not a strength of this Syracuse team ranking 76th in sack rate%. Wake Forest is riding high after 3 straight wins including a huge upset last week over Virginia Tech. They will look to seek revenge from last year's matchup with Syracuse where they lost in OT by 8, but that was two very different teams then.

Illinois +7.5 (+101) Risking 1 unit to win 1.01 units
Despite getting smashed their first game by Wisconsin (who will probably be the best defense in college football considering they were ranked 6th in ypp allowed last year and return 9 starters), and Purdue coming off the big upset to Iowa, I expect this one to be close for many reasons. Purdue has a new starting QB who made plenty of mistakes against Iowa throwing two picks (and should have been 4). Surprisingly we have a huge advantage at the line of scrimmage as Illinois, despite having only faced Wisconsin only allowed 3.4 yards per carry in their loss and averaged 5.2 yards per carry (Against Wisconsin!). Purdue on the other hand got dominated by Iowa at the line of scrimmage only rushing for 3.9 yards per carry themselves and allowing 5.4 yards per rush. For Illinois, we have a returning Junior starting QB with plenty of experience who despite struggling last week, should find a lot more soft coverage in this matchup against a Purdue defense that ranked 83rd in team passing efficiency defense last year. Last year when Illinois went to Purdue and smashed them 24-6 - they didn't even need to utilize Peters as their line dominated the game on both sides of the ball, racking up 242 yards on the ground on 53 carries and only allowing 135 yards on 44 carries to Purdue (and 8 TFLs). I think this line is set as an over-reaction to Week 1 and don’t see anyway how the end is not at least a one possession game in the end. Illinois has also always won their home openers - winning 23 straight and I think they may even get the upset here but we stay safe with the points in this one.

Northwestern +2.5 (-112) Risking 1.12 units to win 1 units
Let’s see if this Northwestern team can come up with another big upset this week against division rival Iowa. These coaches are very familiar with each other as they have both been at their respective programs for decades now but I see lots of reasons why Northwestern pulls off the win this year despite getting beat 20-0 last season (with a horrible team, stemming from QB play). I already talked about how much I love Ramsey in my week 1 write-up but what I think will really give Iowa’s defense issues is the new offensive schemes of Mike Bajakian. He struggled last year at Boston College (taking over for Scott Loeffler what do you expect) and for two years at Tennessee back in 13-14, but he had a few good runs at Central Michigan and Cincinnati from ‘07-’12 before that. He has all the tools with this very experienced Northwestern team. Iowa’s offensive coordinator (the coaches son :eye roll on the other hand, is very bland, and predictable and relies on it’s rushing attack to open up the play-action game. Since he has taken over the play-calling duties in 2018 his offense has ranked 86th in ‘18 and 84th in ‘19 in ypp - those were with experienced QBs. This year he has unimpressive sophomore Spencer Petras who has very little in-game experience. Last week Iowa’s defensive line (that lost 3 starters from 2019) struggled only accrewing 2 sacks (on 50 attempts) and allowing 4 yards per carry against a Purdue team that loves to air it out. Northwestern is the exact opposite as they ran 63% of the time last week averaging 6.1 yards per carry against Maryland - a team that just upset Minnesota last night. I love this BIG 10 matchup and will be watching every second and think Northwestern comes out winning or it will be very close.

Baylor +3 (-111) Risking 1.11 units to win 1 units
This will be the 4th year, Charlie Brewer see’s this crazy TCU defense run by Gary Patterson/Glasgow, last year they squeaked out a win and I expect them to do the same this year. At the line of scrimmage we have an advantage on both sides of the ball as Baylor’s defensive line has been stellar this season ranking 34th in yards per carry allowed while TCU’s has been the opposite, allowing 5.2 yards per carry - ranking 85th. TCU’s offensive line that ranks 90th in career exp starts has struggled to protect Duggan who isn’t much of a quarterback - he ranks 78th in PFF grades. Although Brewer has struggled this season (ranking 147th) we hope he can return to top form like he was in 2018 and was ranked 11th amongst all FBS qbs. This is an unusual year for Baylor as it’s been their offense that has struggled and not their defense. Dave Aranada, new head coach for Baylor is one of the highest rated defensive coordinators I have with an A- rating after moving from Utah State to Wiscy to LSU, ranking his defense in top 10 in ypp in most seasons and was a Broyles award nominee at every school including at Utah State where they ranked 3rd in ypp allowed in 2012. On Offense, Larry Fedora took over the play calling duties and it seems like his offense is just adjusting a little and they should be able to open up the playbook in a game where they’re running for 5 yards per carry against a soft D-Line. Take the 3 points to be safe but I think we win this one outright too.

Notre Dame -21 (-106) Risking 1.06 units to win 1 units
This is a very easy writeup. Notre Dame should dominate in all aspects of this game. In all FEI/F+ and SP+ categories, Notre Dame outranks Georgia Tech by an average of 54 ranks. Notre Dame’s defense also ouranks Gtech’s defense by 59 ranks. At the line of scrimmage, more of the same. Notre Dame with Ian Book leading know how not to turn the ball over ranking 8th in giveaways per game, while rookie Jeff Sims, continues to make stupid mistakes with the team averaging 3 giveaways per game. This will be the toughest defense Georgia Tech will have faced this season and I expect at least 3 turnovers as well as getting completely stuffed at the line of scrimmage. Notre Dame ranks 24th in yards per rush allowed. This contrast in offense vs defense of these two teams is also huge on both sides of the ball in favor of Notre Dame on 3rd Down conversion %, points per play,, completion %, yards per pass - pretty much every statistical category, including penalties as this Notre Dame team is very disciplined ranking 18th in penalties per play while Gtech ranks 84th. There is no reason this game shouldn't be won by at least 20+!

Indiana/Rutgers Under 53 (-106) Risking 1.06 units to win 1 units
Despite putting up 38 points last week, Rutgers offense was largely unimpressive and relied on 3 short-field take-aways from their defense for an easy 21 points. (6 over the entire game!)It won’t be so easy to come by against this tough Indiana defense who struggled a little last week but that was against one of the better offenses in the league. Although Schiano is there to lead the defense, it looks like this offense still needs some work. They are currently ranked 112th in F+, and 108th in SP+. Both offensive lines for these two teams have very few career starts ranking 109th and 120th. Rutgers currently sports some of the best defensive line numbers in the league having only their Michigan State numbers they are ranked 1st in line yards and 5th in stuff rating. Rutgers, despite only gaining 2.6 yards per carry last week against Michigan state were headstrong on sticking with it, milking the clock with the big lead and running the ball 56% of the time. Although Indiana loves to throw the ball I think they will try to run a bit more this week to alleviate some of the defensive pressure Schiano will bring if he continues to be in obvious passing downs. Indiana’s Penix struggled last week only completing 52% of his passes and 4.7 yards per pass - a number I expect to be very similar in this matchup as they are unable to get yards on the ground. If there’s ever an opportunity for an under in college football, this is one of them. Tom Allen (head coach for Indiana) has proved himself one of the better defensive minded coaches in the BIG 10.

Penn State +10.5 (-115) Risking 1.72 units to win 1.5 units
Penn State ML (+292) Risking .5 units to win 1.46 units
Can’t see why this number should be less than a one possession game so we feast on these points. Is the media really that impressed with this extremely new defense of the buckeyes last week to keep them ranked so highly still? F+ has them ranked as 4th and SP+ has them ranked 6th but I don’t know how that's possible based on Week 1 - these ratings seem to derive a lot from the year before but it shouldn’t do so with an Ohio State team that only returns 4 starters and a new unproven defensive coordinator, Kerry Coombs. Their defense rated poorly and below 60 in almost all PFF categories in Week 1 vs Nebraska (They should have given up a lot more than 17 points last week - we took the bad beat L on that one) This Penn State defense did look deserving of a Top 20 defense though, like all James Franklin/Brent Pry led defenses. Together they have probably one of the HIGHEST defensive yards per play allowed ranks over a very long period of time (and two programs) that you can’t deny the superiority of their defensive strategies. Over the past 9 years, they have an average ranking defense of 15th in yards per play allowed. That's absurdly good to be that consistent (lowest ranking 33rd and highest 3rd) over 9 years and we can safely assume this will be a top 20 Penn State defense with 63% of their tackles and 5 starters returning off a team that ranked 19th last year in ypp allowed). Ohio State's offensive line (this is ranked 87th in returning career starts) should struggle like they did week 1 against Nebraska giving up 3 sacks and grading 64.5 in pass blocking. Penn State's defense racked up 3 stats of their own last week and graded out to an 87.4 pass rush against Indiana. Just Fields, although he grades out to one of this highest rated passers, under pressure, his number dropped significantly with none of his categories rating over a 70 PFF rating and his HandeFumble grade was a horrible 25.7. Ohio State’s defense also gave up 5.8 yards per attempt last week against Nebraska where Penn State’s defensive line only allowed 1.6 yards per attempt. Ohio State also has 17 players listed as probable or questionable on their injury report so they will be very thin. This will be a very prepared Penn State defense and they'll be very pissed off after being robbed of a win by the refs last week and since Ohio State has beat them the last 3 years (but with the better team then) and two of those games were only by 1 point. This will be a close game no doubt so I want to lock in 1.5x for the points and think we have a chance to win outright so we snag the extra .5x on the ml.

Virginia +7.5 (-109) Risking 1.09 units to win 1 units
This is an awesome opportunity to take a 1 win team vs a 1 loss team I think. Virginia has struggled with injury to their starting QB Brenna Armstrong which largely affected the outcome of two of their games (NC State and Wake). Last week Armstrong was back but faced a very tough Miami defense but was still able to make some plays on the ground and threw the air (unlike Lindell did the previous two games). Virginia has one of the best offensive lines so far this season ranking in the top 20 of almost every offensive line category including 10th in line yards and 10th in opportunity rate. They should be able to get any short down and distance against a UNC front that has been full of holes ranking 92nd in line yards and 79th in opportunity rank. Sam Howell is great in a clean pocket but has struggled under pressure and Virginia is one of the best at bringing pressure ranking 24th in sack rate %. UNC heavily relies on it’s run game, ranking 30th in rush play % and this will be their toughest front yet as Virginia has only allowed 3.3 yards per carry on the season. We are also the much more disciplined team as UNC is near the bottom of penalties per play ranking 89th and Virginia ranks 17th. If the day goes well I may even sprinkle some on the ML here because if FSU can beat this UNC team, then this Virginia team certainly could.

[Smutbucket]

Week 9 Results: 4-5 (-1.45 units)
Season YTD: 29-34 (-7.53 units)

Week 10:
Ball State ML (-114) Risking 1.14 units to win 1 units
Rarely do I take these Wednesday night MAC games but I see some value here on the slight underdog. In last year's matchup, Ball State dominated the game and controlled the line of scrimmage, more than doubling the yardage total that the RedHawks accumulated. On 3rd and 4th down, Ball State converted 14 of 24 attempts while Miami only converted 2 of 14 attempts. Ball State ran for 261 yards on the ground and held Miami to only 107 yards. Ball State won by 14, but should have won by a larger margin due to two blocked punts, one going for a touchdown and one setting up the offense on the 10 yard line. Ball State made all the right adjustments throughout the game as they were down 24-7 at one point, before coming back and winning 27-41. Ball State has 17 returning seniors making them one of the most experienced teams returning. Miami returns 10 starters on offense, but that's not always a good thing when the offensive line was such a big issue last season. They ranked 122nd in line yards, 117 in opportunity rank, 114th in Power Success Rank, and 123rd in Stuff Ranking, and 98th in sack rate allowed - undoubtedly one of the worst units in the country. Miami will also be without their two leading rushers last season that combined for 85% of their yardage on the ground. Miami, under Chuck Martin, has notoriously come out soft in the beginning of the season only getting 6 wins in the month of September since 2014 and losing 22 games. This may be a close one but in the end Ball State should make the right adjustments to win this one.

[Smutbucket]

Dapper Dan Picks:
Season YTD: 29-35 (-8.67 units)

Week 10 adds:
BYU -3.5 (-107) Risking 1.07 units to win 1 units
BYU will look to make a statement in this game as they look to continue their undefeated season (averaging 44.4 pts per game and allowing only 13.4 ppg) . They currently sport the 9th best Spread +/- differential at +11.4 as they have been undervalued most of the season going 5-2 ATS. Boise is 2-0 ATS on the season but they have had two very weak opponents ranking 90th in the GLS rank (strength of schedule scale). Boise is very inexperienced and ranks 110th in experience charts as they have very few starters returning. Starting QB, Hank Bachmeier from last season sat out last week with an assumed COVID positive although the ailment has been undisclosed (disclosed someone on the team got it but not who!) He will most likely be out again this week although he’s officially listed as questionable. Backup graduate transfer Jack Sears will most likely get the nod against BYU and although he had some great numbers in his first start ever - it was against a very soft coverage in Air Force where he had guys wide open down the field - including an easy pitch and catch 75 yard TD on the first play of the game. I think the biggest advantage in this one is at the line of scrimmage, as Boise was getting gashed last week by Air Force on the ground after stud defensive lineman and leader Demetri Washington got hurt and will be out for the remainder of the season. Boise State was already having to replace several defensive linemen this season before the injury and they should have issues with this BYU front that is averaging 5.1 yards per carry. Boise’s offensive line should struggle too as BYU’s defensive line is ranked one of the better D-Line’s in the nation ranking in the Top 25 of almost all FO defensive line categories and have only allowed 3.1 yards per carry on the season. I think BYU wins this one easily, I bought it down to -3 with my bookie although for tracking purposes I’m using pickmonitor so I couldn’t buy the half but still comfortable and think BYU gets an easy win.

Nebraska +4 (-116) Risking 1.16 units to win 1 units
Betting against my wild-cats this week but I think Nebraska matches up well and this should be a close one possession game like it has been the last two years when these two coaches have faced off. Wild-cats are coming off two big wins but that was the easy part of their schedule and they have a few really tough opponents coming up with no days off thanks to the moron group known as “The league’s Council of Presidents and Chancellors” who decided to postpone the BIG 10 season until end of October due to Covid. Nebraska is coming off a bye week after getting smashed week 1 against Ohio State but despite the lopsided score - Nebraska’s offense was able to move the ball effectively (and better than Penn State could last week). Their defense was able to put tons of pressure on Justin Fields in week 1 despite getting beat deep they were able to get 3 sacks on only 21 pass attempts. Northwestern has 34 players listed on their injury report as questionable - a number that would normally look very strange but this is 2020. Will Scott Frost’s offensive scheme finally get in sync in his 3rd year with all the tools in place? I think so, so we take the points and I think Nebraska may even win outright.

Michigan -3 (-114) Risking 1.14 units to win 1 units
Despite coming off a hard loss to in-state rival Michigan State last week (a very under-rated team), I think Michigan wins big in this BIG 10 matchup where Michigan has NEVER lost to Indiana in the course of history. Indiana has covered though 4 of the last 6 (1 push) and the fact that Indiana is coming off two big upset wins I believe we are getting a little value from this line. The biggest mismatch in this one again will be at the line of scrimmage, as Indiana has been a very one dimensional offense this season that gets very little push in the ground game as they only average 2.2 yards per carry in their first two games only getting 109 yards in last weeks matchup vs Rutgers. Their pass blocking PFF ranks 111th out of 115 teams, Their run blocking ranks 91st. You don’t want to face Don Brown with a one dimensional offense as he’s proven one of the best coordinators in the game and will take advantage of the mismatch at the LOS and bring lots of heat when Indiana is put in obvious passing situations. Despite losing last week, Michigan has averaged 6.2 yards per carry in it’s first two games and should get some push against Indiana who has allowed 4.36 yards per carry against inferior offensive lines in Penn State and Rutgers. Michigan has also protected the ball well and have yet to have a give-away on the season. Michigan curb stomps Indiana and brings this team back down to reality.

[Smutbucket]

Dapper Dan Picks:
Season YTD: 30-35 (-7.67 units)

Week 10 Adds:
Texas -5.5 (-106)
Mississippi State -18 (-107)
Florida +2.5 (+106)
Stanford +7.5 (-104)
UCLA -5.5 (-104)
Tennessee -1 (-104)

Texas -5.5 (-106) Risking 1.06 units to win 1 units
I had to do a double-take after looking at Texas’s defensive numbers as they have surprisingly shown up so far this season unlike years past in Texas, which probably has a lot to do with the new hire at DC, Chris Ash - who despite having a rough stint as head coach at Rutgers, led one of the best defenses in the nation for two years at Ohio State in 2014-15. They are ranked 33rd in D-FEI, and 42nd in F+, and although WVU’s defense is ranked 16th and 19th in those same two categories, when you consider their SOS, Texas looks to have the better defense. Texas’s has already faced many of the tougher offenses in the BIG 12 where W. Virginia has had a much easier first few games and lost to the only two tough teams they played, Texas Tech and Oklahoma State - two teams that Texas won by 7 against.This will be the hardest test for a West Virginia offensive line who has struggled so far this season, ranking 84th in line tards, 91st in opportunity rank, 73rd in Power Succes Rank, and 50th in stuff ranking. Texas’s defensive line in contrast ranks 7th in line yards, 16th in opportunity rank, 43rd in power success and 13th in stuff ranking. It’s safe to assume we have a strong advantage in the trenches here. Texas should win big here and I think Sam Elhringer will put up huge numbers against a defense he has already faced 3 times in his career.

Mississippi State -18 (-107) Risking 1.07 units to win 1 units
No write-up on this one Sorry guys.

Florida +2.5 (+106) Risking 1 unit to win 1.06 units
The numbers are basically equal in this game but I think the eye test in this one points heavily to Florida’s favor. Mainly the big advantage at starting QB, as Kyle Trask has proven to be one of the better QBs in the league (especially with those weapons) and Stetson Bennett has nowhere near the experience on the big stage. THe PFF rankings agree as Trask ranks out to a passer in 80’s ratings while Bennett rates in the 70’s. Under Pressure, although the gap isn’t that big according to PFF (52nd vs 63rd), Trask appears to be the much better passer too as he has that hard to measure, Roethlisberger factor where he can hang in the pocket well, improvise, buy time and get rid of the ball only at the last moment. My biggest concern for this game was Florida’s defense but they showed significant improvement last week after having two weeks off and true to a Todd Grantham defense. Georgia's defensive line has definitely taken a step back this season as they rank 51st in line yards, 92nd in power success rate, and 97th in stuff rankings. Numbers a strong Florida offensive line that ranks in the Top 20 of all categories including 1st in power success rank should fully take advantage of. Florida should be able to get 4 yards on the ground at any time considering the mismatch in these numbers. Combine that with their play-making receivers and passing game and I think they come up with enough to win this rivalry game where Georgia has not only won, but covered the last 3 years - setting up some value on this significantly better UF team (and significantly worse UGA team then last years’ squad). Again this is one where my bookie I was able to buy to 3 but pickmonitor currently has only + odds on the +2.5. Obviously take the 3 to be safe if you can.

Stanford +7.5 (-104) Risking 1.04 units to win 1 units
I’ll take my chances with the much more experienced team ( 61st vs 115th on exp chart) with the more established coaching unit, with this many points all day - even in week 1. I think it’s a great spot to jump on considering the down year Stanford had which if you look back at their history under Shaw definitely seems to be an anomaly. Oregon has only 4 returning starters on offense and 4 on defense (originally supposed to have 8 returning on defense but 4 opted out of season) This will be a very new team on both sides of the ball and I expect this one to be a close one possession game but who knows, maybe Stanfords experience sets them up for the big upset in Week 1.

UCLA -5.5 (-104) Risking 1.04 units to win 1 units
This is another game I like in Week 1 (for PAC) where you have the much more established team and coaching program against a team that’s undergoing a “transition” year. For the third year straight, Colorado is getting a whole new coaching staff and unlike last years, this one is even greener than the one before. On offense, they only have 6 returning starters and have to replace starting QB Steven Montez. Sam Noyer is now the starter, a QB who Mel Tucker moved to defense to play Safety last year. He was going to try to transfer but after seeing Tucker leave he decided to stick around and earned his way back to the starting QB position (and offense). I don’t think this bodes well to his abilities to play QB. On the other side you have UCLA’s Chip Kelly program entering it’s 3rd year with plenty of returning starters, including dynamic QB Darius Thompson-Robinson. The team around him ranks 63rd in experience charts opposed to Colorado’s team that ranks 110th. Let’s hope UCLA’s defense improves this season as that was the biggest problem with their team last year but I think Colorado’s offense will shoot themselves enough times in the foot to not keep up with UCLA.

Tennessee -1 (-104) Risking 1.04 units to win 1 units
Despite losing 3 straight I love Tennessee in this spot. The numbers at the line of scrimmage show huge advantages for Tennessee on both sides of the ball. Their offensive line that ranks 11th in experience and returning starts, outranks Arkansas’s defensive line by an average of 30 rankings across all categories. They are just outside the Top 25 while Arkansas’s defensive line remains in the bottom 25% of most categories. Tennessee’s defensive line should have the same mismatch as they outrank them in every category as well and by an average of 38 ranks. Another big factor in why I love this spot is the fact that Tennessee is 1-3 ATS and Arkansas is 5-0 ATS so I think the odds-makers have over-adjusted this line to a pick'em to factor in the current market value of each team (Arkansas at all-time high at 5-0)

[Smutbucket]

Dapper Dan Picks:

Week 10 Results: 2-8 (-6.69 units)
Season YTD: 31-42 (-14.22 units)

Week 10:
Iowa vs Minnesota Under 58 (-109)
TCU +3 (-109)
Wake Forest +13.5 (-110)
Ole Miss -7 (-112)

Iowa vs Minnesota Under 58 (-109) Risking 1.09 units to win 1 units
It literally hurts me to take an under in 2020 as the effects of an empty stadium have had a drastic impact on the game and totals specifically. Last year, unders hit at a 48% rate (according to TeamRankings) and a Total +/- differential (for all teams combined) of +5.2. This year although overs have only been hitting at a slightly higher 52% clip, the total +/- differential for all teams is 177! A number that is significantly higher than any other season in the history of record-keeping - expect oddsmakers to adjust totals accordingly (and they have been). Despite all that this is a rare gem of an under due to several factors. Expect both teams to pound the rock and drain the clock. Minnesota currently ranks #10 in rush play % and will continue to stick with that game plan while Iowa should follow suit as in the first two games this season, they had an abnormally high amount of passes throwing 90 times in two games (and subsequently lost) but last week went back to their run heavy offense and were able to control the game like they usually do and use their defense to win. They are a very conserative team especially with the lead so you won’t see the absurd 4th down attempts that plague the league this year once getting to the 50 yard line (coaches be like penetrate it - worlds ending). Iowa’s proven to be one of the best run-stopping teams in the country only allowing 2.6 yards per rush on the season and although Minnesota has put up big numbers on offense so far this season averaging 36 points per game, they were against 3 piss poor defenses in Illinois, Maryland, and Michigan (quite a surprise this season). Iowa’s defense is in the Top 20 (even Top 10) in almost all FEI categories as that's the standard in Iowa and the coaches know how to coach defense. Although Minnesota’s defensive numbers are pretty horrible on the season - expect them to improve this week getting to face an Iowa offense that has struggled to adjust to it’s new parts and is ranked in the bottom 10% of all FEI categories. Both coaches are very familiar with each other having played each other's teams the last 3 years, two of which went under the total and I expect that to be the case again in this game.

TCU +3 (-109) Risking 1.09 units to win 1 units
The numbers for these two teams are pretty equally matched with both defenses being the strength of these teams except one largely impactful number with a huge imbalance. Sagarin’s strength of schedule has TCU’s SOS ranked 18th to date so far opposed to West Virginia who has a 74th SOS. This is a huge disparity especially this season since the conferences are not inner-mingling. West Virginia has feasted on the bottom of their conference while TCU has had a much tougher road to date. TCU is also the much more experienced team ranking 5th in experience charts while WVU ranks 71st. WVU loves to throw the ball (ranked 15th in pass play %) and Gary Patterson’s TCU’s defense are designed to stop the pass and have some of the better corners in the BIG 12 (although this year they have struggled - but against this was against much better passing offenses than WVU). As bad as TCU’s offense is when you factor in SOS, like FEI does, they outrank WVU offense in most categories. West Virginia’s defense sports a great 3.4 yards per rush attempt allowed, but those numbers are heavily padded against their weaker opponents and against Texas Tech, Texas, and Oklahoma State that allowed almost 5 yards per carry. West Virginia has won and covered the spread the last two years in this matchup including a big upset last year as a 14 point dog. Rarely do you see these conference rival games have one team cover and win 3 years straight and I like TCU to pull off the upset this week.

Wake Forest +13.5 (-110) Risking 1.1 units to win 1 units
I don’t see how this is not a one possession game as UNC is inconsistent as they come on offense and their defense has struggled heavily in every game where they faced a halfway decent offense. This Wake Forest offense is ranked 34th in O-FEI and it all stems from veteran QB Sam Hartman who despite not having explosive numbers doesn’t make the crucial mistakes being one of the QBs who has yet to throw an INT on the season. UNC is dealing with quite a few injuries, including starting center Brian Anderson who is listed as questionable after being knocked out of the game last week and their backup center Ty Murray got a season ending injury in his relief so they will be very thin on the offensive line. Last year when these two teams faced off Wake Forest outgained UNC by over 100 yards and were favored by 3 and won by 7. This is a huge in-state rivalry game and has a lot of meaning for the ACC as Wake Forest looks to continue their 4 game win-streak after losing their first two so I don’t see how this game doesn’t come down to the last score and worst case we get an easy back door against soft-coverage with this many points. I bought to 14 with my bookie.

Ole Miss -7 (-112) Risking 1.12 units to win 1 units
Locked this number early before the big move. If you can get under 10 I think it’s still good. Ole Miss is one of those offenses that puts up huge numbers against poor defenses but struggles against the better defense. They should score at wil against South Carolina’s defense that has been horrendous this season and yes Ole Miss’s defense has been bad too but South Carolina’s offense is bad enough to shoot themselves in the foot and not keep pace with the high-powered Ole Miss offense. Last week they finally benched starting QB Collin Hill after going 8 for 21 for 66 yards against the aggies but Hillinski is not much better and expect both of them to get some snaps this week.South Carolina has 8 players newly listed on their injury report (most from their defense) and have 14 players who were on their roster at the beginning of the season but are now listed as out so they are definitely shorthanded. Despite losing the few times I’ve backed this team so far this year I think they pull off the big win.

[Smutbucket]

Dapper Dan Picks
Season YTD: 32-42 (-13.22 units)
Week 10 Adds: (had like 4 other games I loved canceled so light card not going to force)
Rutgers -5.5 (-109)
Tulsa ML (-106)
Oregon vs Wash St over 57.5 (-105)
Oregon State +14 (-111)

Rutgers -5.5 (-109) Risking 1.09 units to win 1units
Illinois has been decimated by injuries this season (including starting and backup QB) and have yet to be in a close game this season. The only game they were within 7 points was against Purdue where we fortunately caught a backdoor. Rutgers has only won 1 game themselves but their 3 opponents were much better than Illinois (especially considering how bad Minnesota got beat last night). Illinois FEI ratings agree and they have an average ranking of 96th on offense amongst all FEI ratings and average 105th on all defense FEI ratings. At the line of scrimmage, Rutgers presents more mismatches as Illinois defensive line ranks 107th in line yards and 105th power succes rank. Rutgers defensive line ranks 26th in line yards and 35th in Power Success rate outranking Illinois offensive line by an average of 75 ranks for the two categories. Rutgers offensive line should be able to get 2 yards at any time on 3rd or 4th down (the metric that Power Success Rate measures) as Rutgers offensive line ranks 1st in that category while Illinois defensive line is ranked 110th at stopping it. Rutgers under Schiano defends the run well (ranks 29th in yards per rush allowed) and that's what Illinois prefers to do considering all their injuries at QB they ranked 39th in run play percentage. Rutgers is also ranked 5th in TFLs despite the gruesome BIG 10 schedule to date. Illinois defense has been horrible allowing opponents to convert of 60% of 3rd downs, ranking #122 in the league. Let’s take the better defense as I think they show up big as this is a huge game for Rutgers to bring the team back up to 2-2 and keep the players believing in the program turn-around that should happen now under Schiano.

Tulsa ML (-106) Risking 1.06 units to win 1 units
This is a revenge match for Tulsa where they lost in a very disappointing fashion last year giving up 21 points in the fourth qtr and losing in OT. They dominated the game averaging more than 1.7 yards per carry more than SMU and averaging 1.0 yard per pass more too but gave up 3 turnovers which was the deciding factor in the game. SMU also relied on converting 6 of 7 fourth downs in order to achieve the miracle come-back win. Tulsa surprisingly has a really good defense this year, ranked in the Top 25 of almost all D-FEI categories. Their defensive line has been the real strength and they rank in the top 10 of almost all defensive line categories and have only allowed 3.5 yards per rush. SMU sports some great numbers on offense but their defense has really struggled ranking in the bottom half of the league in most categories including allowing 4.9 yards per carry and ranking 85th in coverage according to PFF. Tulsa has also had a much stronger SOS as Sagarin has them ranked 57th opposed to SMU who is ranked 99th.

Oregon vs Wash St over 57.5 (-105) Risking 1.05 units to win 1 units
Finally, I have decided to start taking some overs based off the numbers. Not sure why I have rarely been taking overs in college football but it’s clear there are plenty of good spots this season in every conference. PAC 12 has yet to play much and I expect their conference to continually to be much of the same, high scoring and no defense (a few good). After beating down on Stanford last week Oregon sits in the top 10 of almost all FEI categories as they continued to drive down the field time and time again with ease under new QB Shough, who looked really good and confident in his 3rd year at the program. Washington State offense did the same against Oregon State and are ranked in the Top 20 of most offensive FEI categories. Oregon was very fortunate to give up as few points as they did to Stanford as they must have missed around 13 field goals. Both Oregon and Washington State’s offensive line crushed it in week 1 as they are ranked 3rd and 2nd in line yards and in the Top 10 of most O-line categories. Both defense lines were near the bottom of the league in most rankings with Washington State being the worst of the two ranking 113th in line yards and 117th in opportunity rate. Oregon’s defensive line gave up 6.4 yards per carry and didnt record a sack. Let’s sit back and enjoy an over for once as blown coverages, 60 yard plays, and trickery are the norm in the PAC 12.

Oregon State +14 (-111) Risking 1.1 units to win 1 units
I like our chances in this one with this many points for 3rd year head coach Jonathan Smith who is a great offensive coordinator coincidentally at Washington from 2014-2017 before coming to Oregon State so the coaches are familiar with each other. At Washington, Jonathan Smith turned the program around on offense, in his first year, they ranked 83rd in ypp, 2nd year, ranked 52nd, in his 3rd year they improved all the way to 11th in ypp. Oregon State is on the same trajectory as they struggled in his first year ranking, 114th, but improved dramatically year two ranking 68th, and here we are about to enter year three in his program. The defense also dramatically improved last year under Tim Tibesar, shaving off almost 12 points per game allowed than the year prior. Despite losing last week, Tristan Gebbia looked good completing 70% of his passes for 7 yards per pass. At Washington, we have a whole new program as Peterson left and they are ranked 122nd in experience charts with only very few starters returning. They have yet to play a game due to cancellation last week. I think the fact that Washington has historically beat Oregon State 8 straight years is driving this high number but when you factor in the inexperience of Washington and the fact that they will be implementing a whole new offensive scheme and are one game behind, I think this is just too many points so we take the late night big dogs (maybe sprinkle ML if day doest well)

[Smutbucket]

Dapper Dan Picks

Week 11 Results: 6-2 (+3.82 units)
Season YTD: 37-44 (-10.4 units)

Week 12:
LSU ML (-134)
Iowa ML (-124)
Missouri -6.5 (-114)

LSU ML (-134) Risking 1.34 units to win 1 units
Arkansas sits at 6-1 ATS under new head coach Pittman and as impressive as they have been I think they are in for a surprise in this one as most people are overlooking LSU after bad losses to Miss. State week 1 and getting smashed by Auburn in their last game 3 weeks ago. Also contributing is the fact that Myles Brennan is hurt, but I think I like 6’6 backup true freshman TJ Finley even better than Finley after his first two games, despite not great numbers, he looked very promising as he has a quick release, tight spiral, and big arm. He’s big and won’t kill you with his legs but he is capable of maneuvering around the pocket better than your average sized QB. He’s got good timing with his receivers and last game, they were interchanging Max Johnson who sputtered some of their drives out but Finley seems to be the clear cut favorite now so hopefully they won’t bring in Max at all and kill their offensive momentum. They were driving up and down the field on Auburn despite few points to show for it. LSU’s defense put up much improved PFF grades despite getting beat 48-11. Their defense has really struggled with tackling the play-makers but Arkansas doesn’t have many of those and LSU players should be the better athletes on both sides of the ball. A big critique of Feleipe Franks, going back to his Florida days was his inability to handle pressure well, and LSU should be able to get plenty of pressure on him as their defense is ranked 27th in sack % and Arkansas’s offensive line is ranked one of the league worst 110th in sack % allowed. I think LSU wins big and reminds the nation who won the national title last year.

Iowa ML (-124) Risking 1.24 units to win 1 units
No reason to over-think this one. Iowa is the much better team on both sides of the ball then Penn State and should win this one easily. I think what's driving the low spread is the fact that Penn State has won 6 straight against Iowa and covered the last two years. At the line of scrimmage we have significant edges on both sides of the ball with Iowa’s offensive line outranking Penn State’s defensive line by an average of 67 ranks between Power Success Rank, Stuff Ranking, and Sack Rank. On defense, Iowa also outranks Penn State’s offensive line in every line yards category including huge mismatches in power success and sack ranking where Penn State has struggled ranking 89th in sack % and Iowa ranks 41st. The FEI stats show this will be a significant challenge for Penn State’s offense as Iowa is ranked in the Top 10 of almost all FEI categories. Sean Clifford has struggled all season long (against weaker defenses than Iowa) and is currently ranked 112th amongst QBs according to PFF (amongst QBs with significant pass attempts). Although Petras is only slightly better with a ranking of 103rd, he is a graded out to a much better runner and doesn't make mistakes like Clifford has notoriously done throughout his career. This year Clifford has a 55 rating in hands fumble PFF grades, a slight improvement from last years 51 rating but a stark contrast from rookie game manager Spencer Petras who rates out to a 76 rating runner (13th best) and 74.4 hands fumble grade - a perfect well coached fit for Iowa and Kirk Ferentz’s offense. Penn State has also struggled to find the right plays in the red zone and short fields, as they have only scored on a 57% of red zone visits (ranking 126th) - an area where Iowa has defended well this year (and most years) ranking 28th in red zone scoring % on defense only allowing points in 75% of red zone trips. Iowa wins this revenge matchup they have circled going into Penn State after falling to this team every year since Franklin took over!

Missouri -6.5 (-114) Risking 1.14 units to win 1 units
A firing of a coach can sometimes bring improvement to a team mid-season but I don’t think that’s going to happen with this South Carolina team and they may be a good team to fade for the remainder of the year. Both starting corners, who were NFL draft prospects and starting safety have decided to opt out this week since the firing. They’ve also lost other key defensive starters due to injury and I don’t see how Missouri doesn’t put up 40+ against this dilapidated defense. South Carolina’s defense has been getting crushed by short 5 yard passes and slants all year that end up going for 25+ due to poor defensive positioning and tackling. Drinkwitz offense should put up big numbers and it may be a good idea to bet the TT over as although they have modest numbers to date that is not common for a Drinkwitz offense who has ranked in the Top 25 of yards per play each of the last two seasons at two different programs, NC State and Appalachian State. Starting QB for South Carolina, Collin Hill has struggled to get the offense going and his numbers are pretty similar to his last four games he started in 2018 where he started in relief of KJ Carta Samuels at Colorado State and averaged only 18.5 points per game (against bad teams) and threw for 6 TD and 6 INTs (same as this year except he has those crap numbers in 7 games) In last years matchup we saw Missouri’s defense score twice in a 34-14 beat down of the Gamecocks and we can expect a similar final result in this one.

[Smutbucket]

Week 11 Results: 6-2 (+3.82 units)
Season YTD: 37-44 (-10.4 units)

Week 12 Adds:
Pittsburgh +3 (-106)
Pittsburgh ML (+124) .5x
California -2.5 (-114)
Oklahoma -7 (-112)
USC/Utah over 57.5 (-111)

Pittsburgh +3 (-106) Risking 1.06 units to win 1 units
Pittsburgh ML (+124) Risking .5 to win .62 units
I love betting these teams where great defensive coordinators branch off to become head coaches and turn around programs into defensive powerhouses. That is what Narduzzi (from Michigan State) has done here. The year before Narduzzi arrived the Panthers defense was a typical crappy ACC defense ranking 88th in yards per play allowed in 2014. And although it took him a few years for his aggressive defensive mentality to take to the program, it has really shined the last two years, ranking 4th in yards per play allowed in 2019 and this year ranking 11th so far. His ability to predict offenses play calls is unlike any others as his teams are always great at stopping the run and applying pressure in the pass game at the same time. They are currently allowing 2.4 yards per carry (ranked #2) on defense and sacking QBs at a 13.21% (ranked 3rd) those are insanely good numbers in 7 games (not counting FBS week 1) against tough offenses including Notre Dame, Miami and Louisville. Hooker is a great runner but 1 dimensional as the hokies throw only 37% of the time - a bad recipe against a defensive guru. Pitt’s offense numbers are horrible but Pickett was injured a few games and his backup put up a pathetic 11 points per game in his relief and attributed to all the poor FEI metrics. I always look for the much stronger defensive team and try to take them with points and this is a great spot for that - we also take the ML as I really like this bet and want to avoid the heavy 1.5 unit curse as this is not a true 1.5 but a 1 and .5, two completely different things.

California -2.5 (-114) Risking 1.14 units to win 1 units
Not going to lie, I completely missed the fact that UCLA played Cal last Sunday and it’s probably for the best as I probably would have taken Cal in that game too as I really liked this team coming back from the offseason and starting QB Chase Gabers who struggled with injuries last year but played well when he got the chance going 8-2 as a starter last year. I'm not entirely sure what the hell happened last week against UCLA in the 2nd half as I tried to watch the highlights from Cal but the youtube video was completely blank as apparently they did NOTHING offense in the 2nd half. I think this is a good spot for a bounce back game - especially for their offense against an Oregon State defense that has been horrible in its first two games with an average ranking of 111th across all FEI categories - a rare feat! Cals defense should improve again this year under fourth year head coach, Justin Wilcox, who has been all over the PAC 12 for the last 20 years as a defensive coordinator, including leading Wisconsin in 2016 to 14th in ypp allowed and in 2018 at Cal they quietly went 8th in ypp allowed (because their offense was so bad). Last week Cal’s whole defensive line was in quarantine up until the wee hours of the game, they literally traveled on a separate bus due to “contact tracing” and were preparing for Arizona State all week before being told Friday that there going to be facing UCLA instead (who already had couple games under their belt). Cal had 21 players make their season debuts last week including 4 starters. This week they return to form as everyone will be back and with ample time to prepare.

Oklahoma -7 (-112) Risking 1.12 units to win 1 units
I was trying to find something in this game that could make me want to take the points with Oklahoma State but couldn't find a good reason and actually the opposite popped up. By the numbers, Oklahoma’s defense has really stepped up this year, surprisingly ranked, 29th in defensive FEI, and an average ranking of 37th across all FEI categories. A much better defense than Oklahoma State has typically faced this season being in the BIG 12. Oklahoma’s defensive line is their strength ranked 12th in line yards, 24th in opportunity rank, 15th in power success rank, 9th in stuff ranking, and 11th in sack rating! This will be a HUGE problem for Oklahoma State’s offensive line who is ranked 104th in line yards, 83rd in opportunity rate, 91st in power success rate, 102nd in stuff ranking and 111th in sack rating (100 ranking worse in that category!). This looks like a disaster for Oklahoma State’s offense under starting QB Spencer Sanders, who hasn’t handled pressure well, ranking 96th this year in PFF rankings under pressure, and last season ranking 89th amongst all QB under pressure (with min 20% dropbacks). As good as Oklahoma State's defense has been this year they have yet to face an offense like Oklahomas who have averaged 62 points in their last two games. I think this is a blow-out and a little surprised the line is as low as it is considering the results of this matchup over the last few years (maybe it’s those crap ranks the “panel” puts next to each teams name as Oklahoma State is 14th where Oklahoma is 18th). I bought to 6.5 with my bookie just to be safe but I doubt we’ll need it.

USC/Utah over 57.5 (-111) Risking 1.11 units to win 1 units
This will be a tough one to predict but I like our chances to cash in on another PAC 12 over. Utah has yet to play a game and lost 9 starters on defense from last year. Two weeks ago, the most experienced corner they had said he was transferring leaving another young inexperienced freshman in Utah's secondary. USC’s passing attack is the strength of this team with returning starting QB Kevon Slovis leading the offense. He has struggled a little in his first two games but expects him to find some relief against this young secondary. Andy Ludwig enters his 2nd year after returning to Utah and I expect big things out of them despite losing Huntley and Zach Moss but they do have few transfers competing for the starting QB position including Jake Bentley from South Carolina who I expect to get the nod. He will have a very strong offensive line as 4 starters return and they were solid last year ranking 31st in line yards and 5th in opportunity rank. They should be able to get 5 yards on every carry against a USC defense that is currently ranked 111th in PFF in rushing defense and have allowed 5.3 yards per carry in the first two games against two much weaker offenses in Arizona and ASU. I think this will be a classic late night PAC 12 shootout and hopefully the refs don’t interfere too much in this one like they love to do in the PAC.

[Smutbucket]

Week 12 Results: 6-2 (+3.37 units)
Season YTD: 43-46 (-7.03 units)

Week 13:
Iowa State ML (-101) 2x
Nebraska +14 (-111)
California -1 (-103)
Virginia -8.5 (-106)

Iowa State ML (-101) Risking 2.02 units to win 2 units
I love this play for two units despite the numbers not being glaringly obvious this one certainly stands out for the eye test for each team. Iowa State’s offense does outrank Texas’s defense in every FEI category but one with an average differential of 12 ranks across all categories. Iowa State’s defense is equally ahead of Texas’s offense across all categories with a close average and the biggest two differentials being available yards percentage and drive yards per play. Texas’s biggest surprise this season is their defensive line that currently ranks #15 in yards per rush allowed at 3.2. But a closer look at their game log would show that they didn't do so great against the better rushing attacks they've faced and this Iowa State offense is one of the best in the nation at running as they are ranked 10# averaging 5.6 yards per carry. Iowa State's defensive line should also be a big mismatch for Texas as Texas offensive line ranks 67th in sack% allowed while Iowa State’s defensive line ranks 21st in sack%. Iowa State loves to control the clock averaging time of possession % at 53.5% ranking 29th in the league - while Texas’s offense is the opposite and their defense struggles to get off the field ranking 99th in TOP %. We also have the much more disciplined team as Iowa State ranked #35 in penalties per play while Texas ranks 107th. Texas has covered each of the last 4 years in this rivalry match-up which I think is driving this number down but I think Iowa State should win by a good TD+.

Nebraska +14 (-111) Risking 1.11 units to win 1 units
Since Scott Frost has taken over Nebraska this has always been a close game and despite the outcome of Iowa’s last 3 games, their program struggles with blowing teams out by 14+ as they aren’t very aggressive and will predictably run the ball, especially in the 2nd half nursing a lead. Nebraska has seen some life on offense by bringing in Luke McCaffrey at QB although he threw 3 INT’s last game, they all came on 4th downs or long down and distances where he was trying to do too much and in a closer game he would have not made the throws. Turnovers have plagued their offense but they have been able to move the chains and I think they match up well against this tough Iowa defense. Scott Frost loves to go for the big play and Iowa is susceptible to them giving up two one play scoring TD’s last week to Penn State in the 2nd half. Defensive coordinator for Nebraska, Erik Chinander actually played for Ferentz back in ‘99-’02 and I’m sure he will put his players in position to defend this tough conference opponent well. Illinois ran all over Nebraska last week but their offensive play-calling couldn't be more different than Iowa’s. According to Sagarin, Nebraska has played the most difficult schedule to date. Granted Iowa has blown out their last 3 opponents in Minnesota, Michigan State and last week Penn State, I think this one will be a much closer game as Frost gets his team ready to play this Black Friday.

California -1 (-103) Risking 1.03 units to win 1 units
Can’t believe I am betting California again but I can’t let last week's rough loss dissuade me. The “COVID” factor had to have some influence last week as Cal gave up a 75 yard touchdown run on the first play of the game and were still in position to win despite giving up numerous short-fields and turned the ball over with 30 seconds left in the game on the Oregon state 10 yard line. I thought all the players were going to be back last week but apparently certain athletic directors have felt it behooves their program to keep the players who are sitting out a secret despite the challenges it presents to the casual HANDICAPPER (we’re legitimate folk now thanks to Uncle Sam's blessing!) Cal’s offense should continue to gain momentum and move the ball against a Stanford defense that ranks in the bottom 10% of almost all FEI categories including 123rd in defensive efficiency rating and 126th in defensive drive yards per play (worse than Oregon state’s defense!) Their defensive line has been horrible ranking 111th in line yards and allowing 5.2 yards per rush. Stanford has also struggled at kicking the ball, only converting 43% of their attempts while Cal’s kicker has made 100% of his field goal tries this year. Although this Cal team is only average in discipline ranking 72nd in penalties per play it’s still a heck of a lot better than Stanford who ranks 124th in penalties per play and 113th in penalties yards per game. Cal last year came up with a big upset win last season over Stanford despite having lost 9 straight to the program and I think that confidence carries over to this year as this is a big game for the program to keep them from going winless on the season nearing the PAC 12’s halfway mark.

Virginia -8.5 (-106) Risking 1.06 units to win 1 units
I loved this Virginia bet again and did everything in my power to not make it two units. I get worried in games like these when all the signs point to a big win with one hot team who is 6-2 ATS against an ice cold team that is 2-6 ATS. The numbers also agree as Virginia has big mismatches on both sides of the ball, especially at the line of scrimmage as their offensive line has been stellar this season ranking 11th in line yards, 22nd in opportunity rate and 7th in stuff rankings. Florida State’s defensive line has been less than stellar allowing 5.4 yards per carry ranking #116th in the league. Bronco loves to dial up the pressure and he should get plenty of opportunities against a FSU team that has allowed sacks on 9.7% of their pass plays (ranking 114th). Virginia’s defensive line ranks 9th in sack% at 10.26%. FEI numbers agree as Virginia outranks FSU by 40 ranks across ALL categories on BOTH sides of the ball (extremely rare to see that). Virginia is also a much more disciplined team, ranking 5th in penalties per play and 10th in penalty yards per game, where FSU ranks 123rd in penalties per play and 121st in penalty yards per game. If NC State, Pitt, and Louisville (their last 3 games) can all win by 2+ TDs, I see no reason why Virginia can’t either in this match-up.

[thekoreanmang]

Iowa St hangs on! Boomshakalaka!

[Smutbucket]

Season YTD: 45-47 (-5.06 units)

Week 13 Adds:
NC State/Syracuse Under 50.5 (-110)
Mississippi State +10 (-108)
Boston College -1 (-107)
Appalachian State -13.5 (-105)
Auburn TT Over 17.5 (-124)

NC State/Syracuse Under 50.5 (-110) Risking 1.1 units to win 1 units
This will be the battle of the backup QBs as NC state and Syracuse battle injuries. Jacobian Morgan came and started for the first time against Boston College after backup Rex Culpepper got hurt against Wake. Then Dino said he was going to stick with Morgan but then Morgan got injured himself against Louisville so now we’re back to Rex most likely. Both seem equally bad and should have issues against a NC state defense that ranks an average 54th across all FEI categories but really excels on 3rd down and in the red zone as they rank #26th in 3rd down conv % and 43rd in red zone scoring %. It’s not surprising we have a huge mismatch at the defensive line as NC state outranks Syracuse by a differential of 61 ranks across all line yard categories. They should rack up some sacks as Syracuse ranks 121st in sack ranking (and the bottom 10% of all categories). Syracuse’s offensive line is very thin too as 4 offensive lineman have been declared out for the season, 3 in the last month. NC State’s offense hasn't been great either since losing Devin Leary. They have only rushed for 3.8 yards per carry (ranking 89th) and have an average passing attack. Both offenses really struggled last week as NC State only put up 15 against Liberty and Syracuse laid an egg. In last year's matchup the game finished with a final score of 16-10 and I can't seem to find a reason why this game wouldn't be similar and worst case we get a couple defensive TDs and are still well under the total.

Mississippi State +10 (-108) Risking 1.08 units to win 1 units
I love getting this many points against such a terrible defense - especially a rivalry game! Ole Miss defense is the bottom of the barrel in almost every FEI category, they are ranked #124th in completion percentage allowed, #125 in opponents 3rd down conv % allowed, #100 in red zone scoring % allowed, #119th in yards per rush (at 5.8 ypc!), #115 in the yards per pass allowed. Despite being thrown into the middle of a brutal schedule, Will Rogers is developing nicely and has shown bits of life to the offense since Costello got benched. Last week against UGA (one of the better defenses I think) he completed 78.8% of his passes for 6.5 yards per pass with 1 TD and no picks. A team that so obviously passes so frequently (77% of the time) can be susceptible to a good pass rush but thankfully Ole Miss has none and ranks #92nd in sack %. Mississippi State's defense in contrast has actually been pretty good this season considering their offensive woes. They rank #13 in yards per rush allowed (and ole miss loves to run) and average 37th across all defensive FEI categories (ole miss average ranking 114th across all defensive categories). Will Rogers has had probably the most difficult defenses to face in his first 5 career games as he had to go up against Kentucky, Texas AM, Alabama, and Georgia. I think they keep this one close as they finally get some breathing room against the soft ole miss defense.

Boston College -1 (-107) Risking 1.07 units to win 1 units
At first looking at this game I was worried reading the injury report that Jurkovec separated his shoulder and then I realized the injury happened 3 weeks ago and this guy is still playing like the beast he is. He’s had two weeks off to rest up and he’s one of my favorite QBs of the year I had never heard about. He has that big presence and hangs in the pocket well to help his playmakers buy time, a variable very hard to measure in college ball (any takers on how to measure?) . Honestly even if he didn’t play I think BC is a heck of a lot better than Louisville this season. The biggest threat on Louisville's offense was Javian Hawkins who opted out two weeks ago. That can’t be good for team morale. Their offensive line struggles ranking 97th in line yards, 90th in power success, 119th in stuff ranking, and 96th in sack % - these are numbers on the year with Hawkins and I suspect them to be worse without him despite them blowing out Syracuse last week 30-0, because the Syracuse team is in shambles. We should win the turnover margin as the Cardinals have been loose with the ball turning the ball over 2.3 times per game and Boston College have forced 1.9 turnovers per game. In contrast, Boston College takes care of the football only averaging 1.1 giveaways per game and Louisville defense hasn’t caused much, only averaging 1 takeaway per game. Last year this was a shootout with Louisville winning the turnover margin +2 and edging out a two point victory. This year I think the turnover margin and score are reversed as Boston College looks to win their last two games of the year which would be huge for their program under 1st year head coach, Jeff Hafley who has really grown on me.

Appalachian State -13.5 (-105) Risking 1.05 units to win 1 units
Towards the end of the season I always like to sift through the bottom of the ATS barrel (a dangerous game to play) and pick out some matchups I like for teams that are getting crushed ATS - Appalachian State is one of them going 1-7 ATS on the season but I think they match-up well against this Troy team. Troy loves to throw the ball, averaging 61% pass plays (ranked 5th) on the season but that's the strength of this Appalachian State defense. They are ranked 1st in completion percentage allowed, 8th in opponent yards per pass, and 15th in coverage according to PFF. Troy loves to throw because their offense can’t run the ball very well as their offensive line has an average ranking of 89th across all categories and is averaging 3.2 yards per carry. Troy's defense hasn't been great against the run as their defensive line has an average ranking of 56th across all categories and have allowed 4.2 yards per carry (ranking 53rd). Appalachian state can run the ball well averaging 5.2 yards per carry (ranking 26th). Senior QB Zac Thomas has already seen Troy twice in his career and put up big numbers including a blowout win last year 48-13. The line is so low because of App States year to date ATS and the fact they got smashed by Coastal Carolina after leading 19-7 at half. Appalachian State won’t take their foot off the gas on this one and make sure they don’t let another team come from behind against them in the 2nd half.

Auburn TT Over 17.5 (-124) Risking 1.24 units to win 1 units
This should be a shootout. Alabama’s defensive line is not what it was last year as they have an average ranking of 82nd across all defensive line categories and Auburn’s offensive line has been the biggest strength of this team. They rank 10th in line yards, 10th in opportunity rate, 30th in power success and 21st in stuff ranking. Alabama’s defense has been stat padding and taking advantage of the weaker offenses in the SEC only allowed 20 points combined in their last 3 games, but in their first 4 games they allowed 28 points per game and Auburn’s offense can put up big numbers, especially when Bo Nix has time to make his throws, and Auburn should have plenty of that as Alabama ranks 106th in sack ranking. My bookie has 19.5 but I still like it as those are dead numbers and should be good under 20 or up.

[Smutbucket]

Damn, is it really only Thursday?! I'm locked and loaded and ready to eat this Saturday! Will post a few more Saturday morning.......
Week 13 Results: 5-3 (+2.63 units)
Season YTD: 48-48 (-4.4 units)

Texas -8.5 (-109) Risking 1.09 units to win 1 units
Since Skylar Thompson got injured in the 3rd game for Kansas State, their offense entirely relies on their run game and that spells disaster against this tough Texas run defense that is one of the top units in the nation defending the run. Their defensive line ranks 7th in line yards, 10th in opportunity rank, and 16th in stuff ranking and have allowed only 3.2 yards per carry on the season - ranking #18th in the nation. Their run defense on PFF ranks 15th in the nation. This should be a disaster for Kansas State’s offensive line as they are ranked 118th in line yards, 114th in opportunity ranking, and 113th in stuff ranking - a huge mismatch on paper. Last year when these two teams faced off Kansas State could get no push up front - rushing for 51 yards on 26 carries and relied on Skylar Thompson to beat them through the air and got a kickoff return for a TD which kept the game close to a 3-pt victory which I don’t expect to be the case this year even though they have been close games the last 4 years and Kansas State has covered the last two. Last year, Texas ran all over them racking up 214 yards on 36 carries, averaging 5.93 yards per carry. FEI categories also agree as Texas’s offense and defense outranks Kansas States in almost every category. Across all categories Texas’s offense outranks Kansas State’s defense by 26 ranks, and Texas’s defense outranks Kansas State’s offense by 24 ranks across all categories. Texas’s defense has also been very impressive this year on 3rd down allowing opponents to convert on only 36% of the time, ranking 39th in the nation - an area where Kansas State has struggled this year only converting 32% of their 3rd downs on offense, ranking #112th. Texas wins this one easily by 2+ TDs as no way Kansas State’s offense can keep up with them.

Oklahoma St/TCU Under 51 (-105) Risking 1.05 units to win 1 units
Gotta be a little crazy to take a BIG 12 matchup under at noon but this one stands out for a couple reasons. The line in itself is a little telling as despite these two teams having faced each other the last 3 years resulting in very high totals the game total for this year is only 51? Less than the last 3 years? That’s because the bookies know the numbers tell a very different story for this season. Both defenses are the strengths of these football teams as both are in the upper echelon of most relevant statistical categories. According to FEI, TCU has an average ranking of 36th across all categories with the biggest strengths coming in Busted drive rate (ranked 2nd) and first down drive rate (ranked 4th), an area where Okie State’s offense has struggled ranking 83rd in busted drive rate and 67 in first down drive rate. TCU’s offense has an average ranking of 72nd across all FEI categories. Oklahoma State’s defense by the numbers has an even bigger advantage with an average ranking of 28th across all FEI categories and their offense has struggled with an average ranking 77th across the FEI. Both defensive lines have HUGE advantages over the offensive line counterparts with the biggest mismatch being in the pass rush where both teams struggle heavily at protecting as TCU ranks 95th in sack% allowed and Okie State pass rush 43rd in sack % and Okie States sack% allowed ranks a horrible 102nd and TCU’s pass rush ranks an even better 27th in sack%. Dillion Stoner (I wish that was my last name) who scored two big play TD’s in last year's matchup left last game and his status for Saturday is “hazy” (lol, kudos to whoever wrote the injury report). Expect a heavy dose of the run from both teams and if you omit Oklahoma State’s 2 big rush TD’s from last year's stat line they ran at a much less impressive 3.7 yards per carry against TCU. This game should stay well under the total unlike most BIG 12 matchups which is driving the high number.

Iowa State -7 (-113) Risking 1.13 units to win 1 units
Back on the cyclones again this week as I think this is another good matchup for them against West Virginia. West Virginia’s offensive line has struggled this season, ranking in the bottom 10% of almost all rushing categories. Iowa State should be able to drop into coverage and let their defensive line that has been so dominant this year (ranking #17 in ypc allowed) to contain the run game. They should be able to get some pressure on QB Jarret Doedge, who although sports some pretty good numbers - has done it all against weak competition. All of WVU’s are skewed compared to Iowa States as if you look at any SOS ranks, despite being in the same conference, Iowa State heavily outranks WVU. According to GLS rankings, Iowa State ranks 16th in SOS to date and WVU ranks a measly 55th. I expect this Iowa State team that has really caught their stride lately to continue playing better and better and the final result should be very similar to last year where Iowa State won 14-38.

Virginia -6.5 (-103) Risking 1.03 units to win 1 units
Jurkovec left last game against Louisville because of a new knee injury, and his shoulder injury seems to persist as he’s been struggling in some of his downfield throws. If he does play, he will have to make a lot of plays in the air or with his legs and deal with a lot of pressure, an area where BC has struggled all season ranking 72nd in sack%. UVA’s defense is the real deal and I already talked a lot about them and they excel the most against teams that can’t defend the pass rush and are ranked 13th in sack%. UVA’s offensive line also has a huge advantage as they are ranked 8th in line yards, 19 in opportunity rate, and 6th in stuff ranking. An area where Boston Colleges defensive line has struggled ranking 93rd in line yards, 110th in opportunity rate, and 49th in stuff rankings. We are also the much more disciplined team by a long shot as UVA ranks 6th in penalties per play and 12th in penalty yards per game, where Boston College ranks 103rd in penalties per play and 98th in penalty yards per game. Boston College defense looked very exploitable last week and honestly thought we were a bit fortunate to cover last week as easily as we did as it could have been a much closer game if it weren't for all Louisville turnovers and they averaged .6 yards more per play then BC did. BC’s offense should struggle against this top tier defense and I don’t see this one being close either. Lock in now if you can for -4 as I made the mistake of locking in early under 7 thinking it would go over 7 but I’m terrible at predicting the market. If I didn't lock the bet in I’m sure the line would have moved to 10 but I locked in so bookies dropped to 4 just to piss me off. Take advantage of them for making that mistake.