Best ACC college football bets: The numbers our experts like
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Although the sports world is on hold due to the coronavirus pandemic, it doesn't mean we can't look ahead to a time when there is college football again.
Caesars Sportsbook just released season win totals and conference title odds for every FBS team, and below our experts -- Bill Connelly, David Hale, Doug Kezirian, Preston Johnson and Phil Steele -- give their best best bets for teams from the Atlantic Coast Conference. Odds courtesy of Caesars Sportsbook. ACC championship best bets
Steele: Put a smaller-sized wager on this long shot. I can't paint a scenario where Clemson does not win the ACC, but the Tigers are -600. Pitt had three key defensive players all put off the NFL to stay for another seasons -- safety Paris Ford, nose tackle Jaylen Twyman and defensive end Patrick Jones. I do not have Pitt pegged as the best team in the Coastal Division, but the Panthers are one of the top four, and that division has been a toss-up for the past few years.
If the Panthers were to make it to the title game, they have proven they can pull upsets. Pat Narduzzi guided the teams to an upset of No. 3 Clemson in 2016 and No. 2 Miami in 2017. They hung with No. 5 Notre Dame in 2018 in a five-point loss in South Bend. That makes them worth a look at 75-1.
Hale: Last year, Pitt's best pass-rusher, Rashad Weaver, went down in camp and missed the season. The Panthers still finished with the 12th-best pressure rate in the country. Weaver will be back for 2020, along with five other linemen who collected multiple sacks last season. The back end of the defense is just as talented, and QB Kenny Pickett brings the experience of a four-year starter to the offense. The O-line needs to take a big step forward, but there's a lot to like about this year's Panthers, and at 75-1 to win the league, there's some terrific return on the investment, too. Season win totals
Steele: Last year the Wolfpack had an inexperienced offense with only four returning starters, scored 11.7 points per game less than in 2018 and fell to 4-8. This year they have 10 starters back on offense and will be much more potent. NC State had been to four straight bowls before last year, and I fully expect the Wolfpack to be back to one this year, as I have them favored in seven games with a pair of toss-ups.
Connelly: The Wolfpack were a freshman- and sophomore-heavy mess last year, and you never know if those young guys will follow a solid developmental trajectory. But 4.5 wins is a low bar. NC State is projected only 62nd in SP+ but is still given an 84% chance of winning five or more games. The over is -145, which means a higher bar (break-even point: 59%), but 84% is still much, much higher than 59%, right?
Steele: Manny Diaz didn't have a great debut year with a disappointing 6-7 record after a bowl shutout loss. Miami has only 11 returning starters, so the 8.5 win total seems a little high, but I like the over. Diaz brought in some significant additions in QB D'Eriq King from Houston and AAC Defensive Player of the Year DE Quincy Roche from Temple. Roche will team with Gregory Rousseau to give Miami one of the top defensive lines in the country, and King is a significant upgrade at quarterback.
Steele: Last season was a down one for the ACC; I rated it the No. 6 conference overall. It was Clemson and a bunch of mediocre teams. This is the only conference I do not have any under forecasts for, as there is a lot of room for teams to move up in this league. There were a lot of players who hit the portal from Virginia Tech during the offseason, but the bottom line is the Hokies return 18 starters from last year's squad. The offense put up 34.3 points per game versus Power 5 foes once Hendon Hooker took over at quarterback, and he returns.
Pittsburgh over 6.5 (+120)
Hale: The Panthers return the bulk of last season's team that won eight games in the regular season, despite also dealing with a dismal O-line and minimal production from the ground game. Pitt was astonishingly bad in the red zone, coming away with a TD just 47.2% of the time (119th in FBS) and had eight red zone trips that resulted in no points; this, for a team that lost three games by a TD or less. With a little better line play to go with a markedly easier nonconference slate, Pitt could easily get to nine wins.
Connelly: I mean, 11.5 is just so high. That's what this comes down to. Clemson is projected far ahead of the rest of this conference once again. The Tigers are projected favorites of at least 12.5 points in 11 of 12 games, but that still only makes for a 27% chance of going unbeaten. The under is at +120, which buys you a little more space. I realize how long it has been since the Tigers lost a regular-season game (October 2017, if you're scoring at home), but that doesn't mean it's never going to happen again ... I think.
Kezirian: Losing QB Jamie Newman will hurt, but I believe in Dave Clawson's ability to develop former starter Sam Hartman and keep the high-powered offense on track. Also, the number is too good to pass up. Only winning six games would feel like a giant disappointment, so I am banking on a strong start and decent finish. The Demon Deacons open September by facing Old Dominion, Appalachian State and Villanova. I hate going against Connelly, but sometimes you just have to roll the dice. Pick: Over 7 (-165)
Connelly: If continuity is rewarded more than usual this year because of disjointed practice times, Tech is another team that could benefit. The Jackets were crazy-young last year and return more starters than just about anyone. And while the schedule is brutal -- Clemson, Notre Dame and Miami at home, UNC, Virginia Tech and Georgia on the road -- SP+ gives them only an 8% chance of winning fewer than three games and a 73% chance of winning more. At +185, the break-even point is 35% odds; this is one of the surest things on the board. Wake Forest Demon Deacons O/U 7
Connelly: This might be the biggest disagreement between SP+ and Caesars. Wake is projected just 81st overall thanks to massive turnover on offense and a defense that still has to prove itself. With a schedule that features Clemson, Notre Dame, Appalachian State and trips to Florida State and Louisville, that puts the Deacs' win projection at just 4.4 with just a 2% chance of winning more than seven games. With the under at +145, that makes this an even more confident bet. Pick: Under 7 (+145)
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Best ACC College Football Bets 🏈
Pittsburgh Panthers (75-1)
Wake Forest Demon Deacons O/U 7
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