38-33 in the regular season 10-8 in bowls
48-41 Overall
I'm on LSU at 5.5. Even though Clemson won the ACC, Ohio State was the first top team Clemson beat all year. The ACC was horrible this year, with Virginia, the team in the ACC championship game being nearly 16 point underdogs to Florida, a team that didn't even make the SEC championship game, and a Florida team with a backup QB.
Clemson replaced most of their defensive line this year, losing 2 key NFL players, Lawrence and Farrel, and the defensive line got almost no pressure on Fields most of the game. The defensive line wasn't always consistent against Dobbs either.Clemson's speed at linebacker isn't the same as it was last year either. LSU is much deeper at rb than Ohio State, OSU had nothing after Dobbs since Teague was ineffective, and Clemson won't be able to load the box against Burrow. Burrow has also been strong against the blitz and Clemson's front four struggled against an OSU team that was the first top line they faced all year.
LSU had huge leads all year against weak opponents and the defense played soft zone and prevent so many LSU games had final scores that were misleading - like the Vanderbilt game, but LSU's defense has stepped up in big games against top opponents like Bama, Georgia, and Oklahoma.
LSU has a partial home advantage and Clemson's front four will likely struggled to stop the run or get consistent pressure on Burrow. As good as Clemson's offense looked in the ACC, the offensive line was mediocre against Ohio State and LSU's defense has been better in big games and recently. LSU also won't be surprised the way Ohio State was by Lawrence running a lot.