[Smutbucket]

Week 8 Results: 4-4 (-.99 units)
Season YTD: 36-28 (+6.6 units)



Week 9:
Bowling Green +27.5 (-105) Risking 1.05 units to win 1 units

Despite Bowling Green being one of the worst teams in almost all FEI stat categories, I still like them to cover in this game against Western Michigan. Three weeks ago, after getting smashed by Notre Dame and being held to 27 points in 4 games against their FBS opponents, Bowling Green made a change at QB from Senior Darius Wade to Grant Loy. Their offense has seen some life since putting up 20 points the last two games, including a big upset over Toledo two weeks ago. Grant Loy is mobile and gives this offense another rushing threat on the ground that they did not have before. Western Michigan is just coming off a hard fought rivalry loss to Eastern Michigan and have 1st place MAC divisional opponent Ball State on deck. They have a laundry list of players listed on their injury report and they have little desire to be in this one and I think Bowling Green can keep it close despite having one of the worst coaching staff on my rating scales. Last season, they managed to keep this game close as well and only lost by 7 points to Western Michigan despite being a 14 point dog. This year they are bigger dog due to how awful all of their offensive stats have been but that was with a different QB at the helm. We also have a slight advantage at the line of scrimmage as Western Michigan’s defensive line ranks in the bottom 10% of all categories except sack rate and we should be able to move the ball on the ground given the QB change. Also giving us some value is the fact that Bowling Green is 2-5 ATS on the season while WMU is 4-4.

Wisconsin +14 (-110) Risking 1.1 units to win 1 units

This is just too many points for the untested Ohio State Buckeyes to win by. This isn't the Ohio State buckeyes of yesteryear that were led by coaching masterminds Urban Meyer and Greg Schiano. Both have left this year and all that's left is Ryan Day and Greg Mattison. Ryan Day has no experience being a head coach and mostly had split OC coordinating duties and positional coaching roles in most of his coaching experience. This will be his first true solo test in a big game and I have a strong advantage on the other side of the ball in coaching as Paul Chryst, Joe Rudolph, and Jim Leonhard have an established system (entering 5th year together) at Wisconsin and have proven to put their players in position to win year in and year out. We also should be able to get some pressure and disrupt this Ohio State offense as they are ranked 78th in sack% allowed while Wisconsin defensive line is ranked 2nd in sack %. This is a market over-reacting to the Ohio State name and the fact that they are 6-1 ATS against a weak schedule to date and of course Wisconsin let down loss last week. Had Wisconsin won that game the spread would have probably been in the 4-7 range where I suspect this to end as it should be a close hard fought game. This will be a great game to watch and I will gladly sit back with 14 points and the #2 defense in yards per rush allowed, #1 in yards per pass allowed, #1 in opponent completion % allowed, #1 in opponent red zone scoring allowed, #1 in opponent 3rd down conversion %, and #1 in opponent's yards per play allowed - rarely do you get this opportunity.

TCU ML (-106) Risking 1.06 units to win 1 units

Love this contrarian pick as it appears a great deal of handicappers are on Texas in this matchup even though the numbers I look at disagree. First and foremost we should have strong advantage at the line of scrimmage on both sides of the ball and TCU loves to run the ball ranking 25th in rush play% and averaging 5.3 yards per carry (rk #17). This has been a problem for this Ttexas defense that is giving up 4.6 yards per carry (ranking 86th) - especially last week giving up 259 yards on the ground to Kansas in a narrow victory. TCU should have no problem getting short yardage when needed as they are ranked 11th in power ranking while Texas defensive line is ranked 110th. TCU’s offensive line outranks Texas’s defensive line by an average of 58 rankings in all the line categories I look at. Although Texas offensive line has been solid - this will be it’s toughest test to date against a TCU defensive line that is ranked 2nd in line yards, 4th in opportunity rate, 28th in power ranking, and 16th in stuff ranking. Their defensive line outranks Texas’s offensive line by an average of 13 rankings. In FEI rankings, this Texas defense is ranked in the bottom 20% of most categories including explosive drive rate, busted drive rate, average yards allowed, and first down rate. TCU’s offense should put up plenty of points, especially with big plays ranking 25th in explosive drive rate. Add to the fact that this Texas defense is very banged up and will be missing 4 out of it’s top 10 tacklers. I also like how this is a revenge rivalry game at home with an excellent coach in Gary Patterson. Adding value is the fact that Texas is 4-3 ATS while TCU is 2-4 ATS.

[Smutbucket]

Week 9 Adds:
Wisconsin ML (+471) Risking 0.25 units to win 1.18

Penn State/Mich State Under 43 (-105) Risking 1.05 units to win 1 units
I loved this pick even before I knew it was raining - but add to that it will most likely be raining, cold, and wind over 10 mph in Michigan - I love our odds. Not only do we have the weather at our back but the defensive numbers agree. We have strong advantages on the defensive line on both sides of the ball as both teams have struggled to run, ranking in the bottom 20% of most offensive line categories. In contrast both defensive lines are top 10 defensive lines with Mich State ranking 1st in line yards, 3rd in opportunity rate, 22nd in power rankings and 7th in stuff ranking. Penn states is almost just as dominant ranking 7th in line yards, 2nd in opportunity rate, and 3rd in stuff ranking. Michigan State will be at home and coming off a bye - there defense will be ready and the noise and weather will play to their advantage. Their offense struggled last season and continues to do so this season. Last year they scored 18 points per game and 9 starters return from that offensive unit. Again like the Vtech defense this season you would think the experience would lead to improvements but not when the unit was so terrible the season before. There was no new strategic offensive mind brought in Mark D’Antonio simply demoted his two co-offensive coordinators and promoted in house Brad Salem who has no experience as an offensive coordinator. No reason to believe this offense significantly improves especially in this game against a proven elite penn state defensive line that should be able to stack the box as I'm sure both teams will be using the weather to their advantage and no respect the deep threats. Love watching two defensive power-houses in cold windy rainy weather so lets hope the forecast holds.

Maryland TT Over 19.5 (-145) Risking 1.45 units to win 1 units
Minnesota is undefeated but they have played nobody - ranking 81st in the sagarin ratings. Even against the weaker competition - they have given up well over 20 points to teams to the likes of Fresno State, Pudue, Georgia Southern, and South Dakota State. The last 3 games they have held very weak opponents to low scores but there were 2nd qbs and poor weather to contribute. Although this is in Minnesota it should be clear skies. On Maryland’s side they finally are getting healthy as Josh Jackson and Anthony Macfarland Jr. I think we hit this one easily (hence the heavy juice) but if you can get at 20-21 at less juice I’d say go for it as well.

Notre Dame ML (-106) Risking 1.06 units to win 1 units
No write-up :-(

[Smutbucket]

Adding
LSU -10.5 (-107) risking 1.07 units to win 1 units

[Smutbucket]

Week 9 Results: 2-6 (-3.98 units)

Season YTD: 38-34 (+2.62 units)

Oy, rough one last week....lets get em back

Week 10:
Wake Forest -7 (-116) Risking 1.16 units to win 1 units
I like Wake Forest to win big for many reasons in this matchup. Most noticeably we have a strong advantage on the defensive line as NC State's offensive line has struggled to run the ball all season ranking 79th in line yards, 86th in opportunity rate, 128th in power success rate, and 88th in stuff rating. Wake Forest’s defensive line has been stout in all the corresponding categories, ranking 36th in line yards, 33rd in opportunity rate, 22nd in power success rate and 15th in stuff ranking. Wake Forest should be able to stop NC state from getting short yardage when needed. The FEI ratings also show strong advantages to Wake Forest on both sides of the ball as their offense outranks NC State's defense (that has been pretty awful ranking 116th in defensive opponent adjusted FEI) by an average of 20 ranks and their defense outranks NC State's offense by 30 ranks on average over all FEI categories. NC State's secondary has been very weak all season and they are banged up with 4 CB’s recently placed on their injury list. Throwing the ball is the strength of this Wake Forest team, even if it’s Sam Hartman but Jamie Newman should be back from injury giving an extra spark to this offense. Wake also strongly outranks NC state in turnovers and penalties per game as they are a very disciplined team ranking 1st in penalties per play and 2nd in penalty yards per game. To cap it all off, NC State will be starting a freshman QB who only came in last game in relief since their other QBs were playing so awful. An analysis of their common opponents would show that Wake won games against the same opponents that NC state got blown out by. Clawson has also had Doeren’s number winning and covering the last two years - even last year in a big upset where they were 19.5 point dogs yet still won outright. This NC state team looks like it will continue to struggle this season and I think they lose this game big.

Nebraska -3 (-113) Risking 1.13 units to win 1 units
Martinez will be back and this offense finally looks like it’s clicking. Last week, 3rd string QB Vedral went 14-16 for 200 yards in a game they should have won. Purdue on the other hand is riddled with injuries, so much so that Brohm for the first time didn't release a Depth Chart as 7 new players popped on the injury report as questionable - many of which won’t be practicing at all this week. Purdue’s offense is extremely one dimensional, averaging only 2.4 yards per carry ranking and line ranks in the bottom 10% of all line categories. Nebraska’s defensive line should have an edge here too. Nebraska outranks Purdue in almost every statistical category except red zone scoring percentages which should improve now that they are healthy. Nebraska should rattle off some big plays as they are ranked 31st in explosive drive rate while Purdue’s defense is ranked 79th against explosive drives. I also like the Contrarian angle in this one as Nebraska has been horrible going 1-7 ATS and 0-5 ATS in their last 5 while Purdue is 3-2 ATS in their last 5. Nebraska wins big.

TCU +2.5 (-105) Risking 1.05 units to win 1 units
Betting TCU again this week after a big win in Texas. Although Oklahoma State came out with a big win over Iowa State as 10 point dogs, I wasn’t impressed with the win. Iowa State just didn't seem to care as they gave up 3 TD’s that should have been stopped for two yards or less but thanks to poor tackling and a lack of effort the speed of Oklahoma State blew right by the defense of Iowa State. Freshman QB for Okie State Spencer Sanders is a turnover machine giving up 10 INT’s in only 215 attempts (5% of his throws). He should have had another 2-3 INT’s in the Iowa State game last week but Iowa State’s DB’s dropped easy INTs. TCU’s secondary has been elite holding opponents to completing only 53% of their passes (ranked #13th) and intercepting opponent QBs on 3.75% of the time (ranked #21st). Max Duggan, TCU’s QB in contrast has only had 1 INT on the season in 169 passes and Okie State’s defensive secondary (like most of the BIG 12) they are ranked #102 in INT %, 63rd in completion %, and 94th in yards per pass. I also have a big advantage in coaching for TCU and you can see that in their 3rd down conversion % ranking #12th in the nation on offense and #34 in the nation on defense. Okie State is ranked 71st on defense and 69th on offense. I think TCU wins this win outright but we’ll take the points as taking less than 3 points has saved us twice this season.

Utah -3 (-113) Risking 1.13 units to win 1 units
Utah ML (-160) Risking .8 units to win .5 units
I’ve watched a good amount of both of these teams and their are lots of reasons to like Utah to win by 3 despite getting beat twice last season by Washington. I have a very strong edge for us at QB as Jacob Eason isn’t able to improvise much on the ground and will be without leading receiver Aaron Fuller. Utah’s offense seems to be in sync this year ranking in the top 10 almost all FEI categories - giving them a huge edge over Washington defense that has regressed from last season despite the soft schedule to date - they are ranked 77th in OA, 44th in OTD, 70th in OFD, and 58th in OAY. Utah’s defense has been more dominant that ever ranking in the top 20 of almost all FEI categories and ranking 4th in yards per rush and 8th in yards per pass. They’ve been stopping opponents on 3rd down ranking 4th in the nation and you can see a larger than usual gap between these teams numbers then years past and I think Utah wins big. Utah should be able to run at will as their offensive line outranks Washington’s defensive line by an average of 55 ranks across all line of scrimmage categories. This one could get ugly and I locked in one unit early then I realized I wanted a bit more after digging further so I through a .8 unit on the ML but you could fire away two units on the -3 if you can snag.

Northwestern +11.5 (-106) Risking 1.06 units to win 1 units
Northwestern ML (+323) Risking .25 units to win .91 units
Has anyone had a tougher schedule than this Northwestern team? Sure their offensive stats aren’t great but they just got done playing a gauntlet of defensive powerhouses going from Michigan State to Wisconsin to Nebraska to Ohio State to Iowa. All the while they have been interchanging QB’s as well as they have been battling injuries with their 2nd and 3rd string QB’s. Both have had a good amount of reps but let's hope Hunter Johnson who looks more impressive (despite the weak stats against juggernauts). Their offense is ranked 120th in offensive FEI but 3rd in opponent adjusted FEI. Quite a contrast when you factor in the strength of schedule of these defenses that they have faced. Their defense has held up well despite little help from their offense and they are ranked in the top 20 of almost all FEI categories. Indiana in contrast has had a much weaker schedule and their opponent adjusted ratings are much lower on both sides of the ball. I think NW’s offense finally see’s some life playing against a defense that is in the bottom 20% of most categories. Indiana has also been battling injuries at QB and we’re not sure who will be out there but either way each offense will be vulnerable to mistakes so let's go with the much stronger defense and hope they capitalize on some of them with a defensive TD and win outright!

Pittsburgh -7.5 (-110) Risking 1.1 units to win 1 units
Was hoping to get this at 7 but I don't think we get there but think Pitt rolls in this one. Pitt’s offense relies on throwing the ball so they struggled in the wet rainy conditions in Miami last week and had a big let-down loss. The biggest mismatch will be up front as Pitt’s front (and entire defense) has been dominant all season long. Gtech hasn’t been able to protect it’s QB ranking 123rd in sack % allowed which is a recipe for a blow-out against this Pat Narduzzi defense that is ranked 5th in sack %. Gtech’s offensive line has struggled to get short yardage ranking 130th in power success rate and 121st in stuff rating. Gtech shouldn’t be able to run the ball and be forced into obvious passing situations where Narduzzi always thrives and I don’t see Gtech being able to hang with Pitt’s offense at all that has been explosive at times but inconsistent. They shouldn’t have trouble staying in rhythm against this weak defense that has an average ranking of 79th in all FEI categories. Pitt wins by at least a TD.

Cinn -23.5 (-112) Risking 1.12 units to win 1 units
Cincinnati seems to be smashing everybody and looks like the oddsmakers continue to undervalue them here as they are 5-2 ATS. My numbers are all flashing big green flags for this Cincinnati team on both sides of the ball coming off a bye against a much weaker ECU team. In FEI categories, Cincinnati outranks ECU’s defense by an average of 65 ranks through all categories as ECU is ranked in the bottom 10% of everything. Cincinnati's opponent adjusted offensive FEI is an impressive jump from 42nd to 15th. The disparity of ECU’s offense vs Cincinnati's defense is even greater as they outrank ECU by an average of 84 ranks - Cincinnati is in the top 25 of most categories while ECU again is in the bottom 10%. Last year Cincinnati beat ECU 56-6 and no reason to think this doesn’t end up with the same type of score as it seems despite Fickell bringing a strong program to Cincinnati the market has yet to fully see that yet giving us value.

Virginia +2.5 (-110) Risking 1.1 units to win 1 units
Already talked a lot about both these teams and am very comfortable with this pick.

UCLA/Colorado Over 64.5 (-105) Risking 1.05 units to win 1 units
We have two of the worst passing defenses facing off in what should be an obvious shoot-out. Could the books put a higher number? No but they will do their best to make the public believe the “sharps” are on the under as the consensus numbers (that they release for us to help us make money) show a higher percentage of wagers on the over yet the number continues to drop. Lets look at the actual numbers in the game though that dictate the outcome. Both defenses give up almost 9 yards per pass attempt and allow opponents to complete over 65% of their passes. They give up 3rd downs conversion % 's to their opponents at high rates ranking 97th and 121st. They both give up a ton of big plays ranking 108th and 119th in explosive drive rate. Both offense should have no problem moving the ball as their FEI categories outrank their defensive counterparts by an average of 25 ranks. UCLA’s offense struggled early on the season averaging 263 yards and 14 points per game in it’s first 3 games. They have finally figured out Chip Kelly’s offense as they now average 480 yards and 38.2 ppg in their last 5 games. Colorado’s offense struggled against Oregon and Washington State in bad weather but last week they looked to find themselves again putting up 31 vs USC. I think this game is a typical PAC 12 shootout and the oddsmakers couldn’t put a high enough number before the game started but the fact that the total has gone under the last 3 times these teams met have forced their hand into a lower total.

[freddues]

Comeback week smut!

[Smutbucket]

This is the week FRED! THIS THE WEEEK ! too many games last week, haha....Limited to 6 this week.


Week 10 (5-6) -1.16 units
Season YTD: 43-40 (+1.46 units)

Week 11:
FSU +3 (-117)
Penn State -6.5 (-109)
Northwestern - 2 (-106)
Texas -7 (-108)
Wisconsin/Iowa Over 37.5 (-111)
Tennessee ML (+102)

Week 11:
FSU +3 (-117) Risking 1.17 units to win 1 units
This is a bit of a contrarian play as this FSU team is in shambles after getting blown out 27-10 to Miami and Boston College blowing out Syracuse 58-27. But the firing of Willi Taggart couldn’t come soon enough and hopefully the terrible coaching decisions like starting James Blackman over Alex Hornibrook will have all come to an end now that Taggart is gone. In steps Odell Haggins who the team will be motivated to play under considering Haggins has been a life-long DL coach at FSU since ‘94. In 2017, when Jimbo moved to Texas A&M, Haggins stepped in as interim head coach in that spot too and won the remaining two games of their season, 42-10 and 42-13. The matchups on both sides plays into the strength of this FSU team. For a while now this Boston College offense has relied on it’s rushing attack to lead it’s offense but FSU’s rushing defense may be the best thing about this team. They are only allowing 3.7 yards per carry on the season ranked 33rd. FSU’s biggest weakness on offense has been there offensive line who gave up 9 sacks last week and are ranked 114th in sacks % allowed. Fortunately for them, the defensive pass rush has been non-existent for Boston College this season as they are currently ranked 122nd in sack %. I think they pull off the upset here in a good spot where they are only 3-5-1 ATS and Boston College is currently 6-3 ATS on the season but FSU has had a stronger schedule ranking 35th in sagarin ratings while BC is only ranked 67th in SOS ratings.



Penn State -6.5 (-109) Risking 1.09 units to win 1 units
Think we win this one easily due to the soft schedule of Minnesota. A big sign of an overvalued team can be seen by looking at a teams FEI ranking compared to their Opponent Adjust FEI ranking - for Minnesota it’s one of the largest I have seen all season. Minnesota defense is ranked 13th in FEI but drastically falls to 115th in Opp. Adjusted FEI. Almost as drastic of a drop is on Minnesota’s other side of the ball as they are ranked 11th in FEI but 93rd in opponent adjusted. In contrast, Penn State, OAFEI are actually better on offense then their FEI - ranking 20th in FEI but bumping up to 3rd when you factor in their opponents. Although their defensive OA isn’t great all of the other stat categories in FEI are - including 1st in explosive drive rate allowed, 3rd in touchdown drive rate allowed, 20th in first down drive rate, and 18th in busted drive rate allowed. We’ve all heard about their front 7 that ranks 5th in line yards, 2nd in opportunity rank 2nd in stuff rating and 27th in sack rate. This will be the toughest test to date for Minnesota and they have struggled with pressure, ranking 107th in sack % allowed. Penn State’s offense should achieve short yardage when needed as Minnesota’s defensive line is one of the worst in the nation ranking 118th in power ranking and 110 in stuff ranking - a huge mismatch for the Lions who are ranked 33rd in power ranking and 36th in stuff ranking.
We also have a huge advantage in special teams as Penn State's FEI is ranked 6th while Penn State’s is ranked 102nd. The eye test and the numbers agree, Penn State wins in blow-out fashion.

Northwestern - 2 (-106) Risking 1.06 units to win 1 units
Stubbornly betting again on this Northwestern team but I can’t help it. In last weeks’ matchup, I have never seen such a poorly officiated job. I only watched the first half but after seeing 4 pass interference called in the endzone, that clearly were not PI’s, two of them on 3rd downs - I had to turn the game off. The NW line moved like 3.5-4 pts before closing last week and that's always a good sign there is heavy money on one side and IF a fix was in - it would be to that type of game. But still regardless of the conspiracies (likely ones in some games) the numbers still show strong advantages in this game. Again, Northwestern has some of the best opponent adjusted stats as they’ve had THE hardest schedule in the league - ranked 1st in Sagarin. This Purdue team has more injuries I have ever seen on a roster and will be starting it’s 3rd string QB since backup Jack Plummer went down last week. Brohm’s offense requires strong QB play or it totally falls apart. It doesn't have many other tools to rely on as last year Blough made all the plays. Northwestern should shutdown the run with the much stronger front as Purdue ranks in the bottom 15% of almost all line categories. Northwestern’s offense has struggled at giving their QB time to throw but that shouldn't be an issue in this game as Purdue’s offense is ranked 101st in sack rating. Almost bet this one for two units but thought twice considering Northwestern is 2-6 ATS.

Texas -7 (-108) Risking 1.08 units to win 1 units
Although this Texas defense is banged up they should be rested after the bye and have some of their players back that have decimated this secondary. Herman is 3-1 ATS after bye since coming to Texas. The biggest mismatch will be at the line of scrimmage as Texas’s offensive line handedly outweighs Kansas State’s defensive line with an average ranking of 102nd and ranks in the bottom 20% of all categories. Texas’s offensive line has been great ranking 17th in line yards, 8th in stuff ranking, and 23rd in opportunity rank. They should be able to run for 4-5 yards at will opening up their explosive passing offense that is ranked 42nd in explosive drive rate which should lead to some big plays against this Kansas State defense that is ranked 77th in explosive drive rates allowed. The joe public will see the Kansas State name as such a big dog in this situation has been situationally a great angle in the last few years - but unlike the last 3 decades, coaching mastermind Bill Snyder has retired. In stepped Chris Kleiman who has been impressive to date but should surely regress as his antics that raised him to the elite level of FCS football shouldnt fare well at this level. I also like how the majority of consensus sites I have seen (not affiliated with my enemy - the bookies) show a larger consensus on Kansas State but the line is moving in their favor. I think Texas wins this one handedly as their defense finally shows some life and “upsets” the team with the better record.

Wisconsin/Iowa Over 37.5 (-111) Risking 1.11 units to win 1 units
Despite these two teams being defensive powerhouses, I love this over play. First off we are getting an extremely low number considering that both of these teams have yet to have a game go over the total in their last 5 games. But the last two times these teams have faced off the last two years the game went over the total as it seems these coaches are very familiar with each other. Both teams QBs are well experienced and have faced many tough defenses before in this BIG 10 conference. The biggest reason to take this game is when you look at each teams opponents adjust defensive stats. Although Iowa is ranked 4th in defensive FEI and Wisconsin 5th in defensive FEI - when you account for their opponents their rankings drop significantly - Iowa drops to 78th and Wisconsin drops to 83rd. Neither team has faced tough offense yet and the game that they did they gave up a lot of points. Neither team turns the ball over much and I expect lots of long methodical slow drives but ones that result in TD’s and this game should end in 24-21 type fashion.

Tennessee ML (+102) Risking 1 unit to win 1.02 units
I love this play as Tennessee after losing and not covering in it’s 4 games against FBS opponents have turned it around and covered in the last 4 games by an average margin of 15 points. Kentucky is coming off a bye and a huge upset win over Missouri but the pouring rain conditions in that game largely favored Kentucky since Missouri is a passing team and Kentucky has a 3rd string converted WR playing QB now. They ran all over Missouri and Missouri had no deep threat. Last year in Jeremy Pruitt’s first year at Tennessee they smashed Mark Stoops and the Wildcats 24-7 when Kentucky had a much better team. Pruitt, a defensive coaching mastermind will surely draw up a strategy to defend against the team that can’t throw the ball deep due to its limitations at QB. The FEI numbers agree as Teneesee has had a much stronger schedule and opponent adjusted numbers are much better than their actual numbers ranking as high as 4th on defense thanks to their SOS. Tennessee although they’ve struggled to run the ball in the past - things should change against Kentucky who is giving up 5.1 yards per carry ranking #102nd in the nation.. Kentucky runs the ball almost 60% of the time since they lost two QBs and converted Lynn Bowden Jr to QB but that’s the strength of this Tennessee team who allows 3.8 yards per carry. This should be a close, low scoring game and we also have a strong advantage at kicking as Tenneesse’s kicker has been hitting 90% of his FG’s while Kentucky's kicker has only been hitting 55%.

[Hman]

GL today

[Smutbucket]

https://m.youtube.com/watch?fbclid=I...&feature=share

Thanks hman

[Smutbucket]

Week 11Results: 3-3 (-0.21 units)
Season YTD: 46-43 (+1.25 units)

Week 12:
North Carolina +4 (-105) Risking 1.05 units to win 1 units
I like getting 4 points in this game in what I think should be a close one possession type game. 8 of UNC 9 games have been decided by one score or less and 6 of Pittsburgh’s 9 games have been decided by one score or less and two others less than 10 points. Pittsburgh seems to be a team this year that plays up/down to it’s competition every week. They had much closer games then thy should have against Syracuse, Ohio, and even FCS Delaware squeezing out a 17-14 win. The Sagarin ratings show a strong SOS advantage to UNC as well who ranks 19th in SOS while Pitt ranks 53rd. We also have a strong advantage in penalties as this Pitt team has been one of the most penalized teams in the nation ranking 106th in penalties per play while UNC is one of the more disciplined teams. Pitt’s defense is great but very aggressive and leaves them vulnerable to teams that love misdirection and Mack Brown should have a few tricks up his sleeve coming off the bye. Howell isn’t the type to make mistakes and throw INTs that lead to turnovers only giving up 5 INT’s on the season and this Pitt defense thrives on turnovers. Although UNC lost two week ago to Virginia by 7 they were able to put up almost 200 yards on the ground and if we can get the run game going we should cover this spread easily. As long as UNC figures out a way to protect Sam Howell against a team that is great at bringing pressure - I think we win this one outright even but will gladly sit back with 4 points. Pittsburgh has had it’s fair share of issues protecting it’s QB too and UNC has been no slouch themselves ranking 24th in sack%. Let’s start the week off nicely with this Thursday night game.

Air Force -10 (-116) Risking 1.16 units to win 1 units

First game I locked in after running the offensive/defensive line comparisons. No surprise Air Force strongly outweighs Colorado State on both sides of the ball at the line of scrimmage. Air Force loves to run often (84% of the time) and they have run effectively ranking in the top 10 of almost all line categories as well as yards per rush at 5.3 ranking 16th. The defensive line is the biggest weakness of this Colorado State team as they have allowed 5.4 yards per rush on the season, ranking #115th. They are also in the bottom categories of all defensive line stats. We also have strong advantages in the kicking game as Air Force’s kicker has made 9 for 9 FGs this season where CSU’s kicker has only hit 13 out of 21 FGs. We also have strong discipline advantages as Air Force is ranked in the Top 3 of penalties per play and game where Colorado State is in the bottom % of the league, ranking 103rd in penalties per play and 107th per game. Air Force should have no problem moving the ball up and down the field and putting it in the end zone as they have scored on 90% of their RZ scoring opportunities ranking #23rd and Colorado State has given up scores in the red zone 90% of the time against their opponents. Colorado State in contrast only scores 75% of the time of its RZ scoring %’s ranking 106th and they will face an Air Force team that knows how to bend and not break only giving up scores to opponents 74% of the time. We have all these statistical advantages as well as a stronger SOS so let's fire away for 1 unit.

[A Quant]

My, bad, good luck!

[Smutbucket]

Sorry fellas no writeups this week. Busy week at work

My Tracked Plays
Risked 1.05 units to win 1 Penn State -14.5 -105 vs Indiana
Risked 1.04 units to win 1 UNDER 45 -104 vs Michigan
Risked 2.04 units to win 2 Georgia -3 -102 vs Auburn
Risked 1.16 units to win 1 Air Force -10 -116 vs Colorado State
Risked 1.08 units to win 1 Arizona State -2.5 -108 vs Oregon State
Risked 1.05 units to win 1 California +3.5 -105 vs USC
These plays are being tracked under the username DapperDanPicks at Pick Monitor

[Smutbucket]

Week 12: 2-5 (-2.27 units)

Season YTD: 48-48 (-1.02 units)

Time to break out of this little rut and finish the season strong and another profitable season. Best of luck

Week 13

UCF -6 (-107) Risking 2.14 units to win 2 units

Think this is a great spot for UCF to win big after a tough upset loss to Tulsa 31-34. They will be coming off a bye and have some great coaches in Heupel and Shannon. Randy Shannon’s defenses have been notoriously stout for decades (think the U from ‘01-’05) and his rush defense since coming to UCF has improved tremendously in his 2nd year, currently ranked 28th in the nation allowing 3.6 ypc (last year allowed 4.8). Tulane relies on it’s run game heavily as they run 62% of the time, but this will be one of the toughest tests to date as the typical run defense in the American is much softer. With Tulane struggling to run the ball, their QB should make plenty of mistakes as they are ranked #112th in INT % and 92nd in completion %. They don’t have a real passing threat and Shannon should put his team in position to shut down the run game. UCF’s offense under Heupel has been great all around - averaging 5.0 yards per carry and 9.5 yards per pass attempt. The one area they have struggled is sack % giving up 6.81 % (ranking 82nd) but Tulane's defensive line has not been good at getting pressure ranking 108th in sack%. We also have a strong advantage in the kicking game as UCF kicker is hitting 87.5% on the season where Tulane is only converting 75% of FG’s. Tulane has also been careless with the ball ranking 87th in giveaways per game at 1.7 and their defense hasn’t produced turnover only averaging 1.1 per game ranking 102nd. Tulane is just coming off a disappointing loss to Temple, a team that UCF beat by 42 points 3 weeks ago. Go Knights.

Texas +6 (-110) Risking 1.1 units to win 1 units

I love getting this many points in these BIG 12 matchups where defenses are non-existent. Although Texas is mis-matched in many of the stat categories in this game - it’s been against a much more difficult schedule ranking 7th in the sagarin rankings where Baylor ranks 41st only because they played oklahoma last week, before they were even lower. Texas knows how to convert 3rd downs and have their team in position to move the chains as they are ranked 4th converting on 51% of 3rd downs, which has been a weakness of this Baylor team who is ranked 85th in 3rd down conversion % allowed. Baylor was out-coached in the 2nd half last week as they were outscored 24-0 in the 2nd half in a brutal loss against Oklahoma. Baylor’s team got dominated in the TOP % battle as their defense couldn't figure out a way to get off the field which has been a trend all season ranking 116th in TOP% despite the weak schedule. Texas secondary numbers are atrocious but that was with a lot of injuries and a lot of inexperienced giving up big plays in busted coverage but the backups have had plenty of real game time experience now and a few DB’s have returned from injury so I like our odds to keep this one close.

UCLA +13.5 (+101) Risking 1 unit to win 1.01 units

USC’s defense is flying high after winning two straight games against backup QB’s. Last week against Cal as soon as I saw Garbers go down I know the bet was dead money as horrible as Modster is and turned the game off. But it has presented a good opportunity to bet UCLA this week who just got smashed by Utah - but Utah is one of the best teams in the country. Now USC did beat Utah but they were very fortunate to as they were held to 0.6 yards per carry on offense, were out-possessed by 64%, and allowed 5 yards per rush on defense. USC basically had 4 deep ball prayers that were heaved into double coverage that fortunately weren’t intercepted by backup QB Matt Fink and had the refs behind them on the Thursday night game as Utah was flagged 16 times. UCLA was able to move the ball last week but had 5 turnovers that prevented them from ever being in last week's game. Their run game was bottled up but I don’t think that will be the case this week against USC who allows 4.6 yards per carry to it’s opponents. Honestly I think UCLA even has a chance to win this win outright so if you’re feeling risky sprinkle .25 units on the ML.

Louisville -7.5 (-106) Risking 1.06 units to win 1 units

Louisville is on a revenge tour - defeating four opponents that beat them by 18 points or more last season (Wake Forest, Boston College, Virginia and NC State) and Syracuse is the next foe on the list. I’m not buying the Syracuse team turn-around after blowing out a Duke team that has averaged 11 points in their last 4 games and have given up an average of 36 points per game during that stretch.Louisville's defense is ranked 82nd in DFEI but their opponent adjusted DFEI is 20th meaning they’ve faced some potent offenses which has accounted for their defenses poor numbers. This Syracuse offense is not one of those averaging an abysmal 4.7 yards per play (ranking #115th) and are in the bottom 20% of almost every FEI category. Louisville's offense has been explosive ranking 30th in explosive drive rate and they should get plenty to eat against this Syracuse defense that has given up the 108th most explosive drives on defense. I think the revenge tour trend continues as new head coach Scott Scatterfield (who built a great program at Appalachian state) continues to catch defenses with their pants down. I bought the half point down to 7 at my bookie and you should to.

Pitt/Vtech Under 46 (-110) Risking 1.1 units to win 1 units

The weather forecast is definitely a factor in this pick but the numbers and matchup also agrees. Virginia tech has seen an offensive resurgence on the ground averaging over 200 yards in 4 of the last 5 games but it’s been against some weak defensive rushing units. Notre Dame, their only respectable defensive line they’ve faced recently held them to 96 yards on 36 carries. This Pitt defense is very good at stopping the run holding opponents to 2.9 yards per rush on the season. They’ve been a great defense all around ( Narduzzi programs do) ranking 3rd in completion % allowed, 5th in sack %, and #15 in defensive FEI. Their offense loves to pass ranking 21st in pass play % but the weather conditions won’t be conducive for the passing game with 41 degree weather and an 87% chance of precipitation at kickoff that increases as the day goes on.. Virginia Tech's defense has been vulnerable to the big play all season and is ranked 76th in explosive drive rate allowed but big plays are not the style of this Pitt offense who ranks 111th in explosive drives. On both sides of the ball I am seeing strong number advantages in defensive FEI > offensive FEI so that combined with a weather makes this a very confident 1 unit play.

Duke vs WF Under 50 (-113) Risking 1.13 units to win 1 units

Last year, Wake Forest went to Duke and blew them out 59-7 in a matchup where Duke gave up two turnovers for 14 points in the first half. But ironically so since these two coaches have been facing off for the past 5 years as ACC opponents the away team has won every year except in 2014. It seems defenses have figured out that they can stack the box against this Duke offense as their QB Harris doesn't offer much of a passing game or deep threat. Their rushing attack has been horrible averaging 3.05 yards per carry in their last 6 games and even though WF’s rushing defense isn’t great (or has been in the last few years) it held Duke to 3.12 yards per carry last season. The strength of this Duke team is their passing defense who ranks #25 in opponent completion %, 35th in opponent's yards per pass, 36th in sack %. Wake Forest’s offense is very dependent on their passing game as their rushing offense is horrible averaging 3.6 yards per carry themselves on the season. The projected weather also strongly favors the defenses as it’s expected to be 48 degrees and 100% chance of rain. This should be an ugly low scoring game between two coaches who are very familiar with each other.

[Hman]

GL today

[Smutbucket]

Thanks Hman. Wish I had some this week but week starts off with another bad beat

[Smutbucket]

Week 13: 2-4 (-3.37 units)
Season YTD: 50-52 (-4.39 units)

Week 14
Ole Miss +2.5 (-117)
Virginia +2.5 (-109) 2x
UVA/Vtech Over 47 (-110)
Cincinnati +11 (-109)
Iowa -5.5 (-109)

Week 14
Ole Miss +2.5 (-117) Risking 1.17 units to win 1 units
Love an opportunity to bet on and watch Plumlee on primetime against their rival Mississippi state to spoil their bowl chances. Mississippi State has been horrible against the run, allowing almost 5 yards per rush. Their last 3 opponents (not including their FCS team) have all averaged more YPC than their season average YPC against Miss. State. That is what drives this Rich Rodriguez led offense and we should expect a ton of yards on the ground as Ole Miss averaged 8 yards per carry in their last two games. They have rushed for more ypc than their opponents typically allow like against Auburn who has averaged offenses to 3.2 ypc on the season to one of their season highs at 3.98 ypc allowed in that matchup. Both teams rely on their run game and Ole Miss front has actually been decent at stuffing the run, holding opponents to 3.81 yards per carry. Mississippi State also just lost one of its top tacklers, Safety CJ Morgan last week to injury. We should win the turnover battle as Ole Miss has been great at protecting the ball - only allowing 1 giveaway per game where Miss State averages 2 giveaways per game. Again, buy the hook to 3 if your book permits you too as this will probably be a close game.

Virginia +2.5 (-109) Risking 2.18 units to win 2 units
UVA/Vtech Over 47 (-110) Risking 1.1 units to win 1 units
I love this contrarian pick to a team that I’ve been closely following all season long. Virginia tech has won and covered in this head 2 head matchup each of the last 3 years - giving us extra value. Virginia’s defense started off the season strong but had some setbacks with injuries and had some young DBs give up big plays on mistakes and busted coverages. But this game Virginia will be rested and well-prepared as they came off a bye in Week 12 and had easy matchup Liberty last week. Winning this game will send it’s program to its first ever ACC championship game in Bronco Mendenhall’s fourth year. They will be at home where they have not yet lost and have been significantly stronger on offense. Vtech defense is feeling good after two straight shut-outs but last week’s matchup vs Pitt could largely be attributed to weather condition giving Bud Foster an edge. This is practically the same defense that gave up horrible numbers last season. A big reason I do like this game to be high scoring is the recent acquisition of “special offensive analyst” Jerry Kill for Virginia Tech. He is one of my all-time favorite offensive coaches and his 2nd half adjustment ATS is still one of the best in the league. Justin Fuente hired him after the first 3 games of the season when their offense struggled against Old Dominion and Furman. Since then (and Hendon Hooker) took over their offense has been explosive averaging 35 points per game. I think this will be a shoot-out but Virginia ultimately coming out on top as they have the more established coaching staff with the revenge factor at home.

Cincinnati +11 (-109) Risking 1.09 units to win 1 units
I love getting this many points with the much stronger defensive unit. Cincinnati is not the typical air-it-out offensive team that Memphis typically faces in the American as Cincinnati runs the ball 61% of the time. Memphis’s defensive front is the biggest weakness of this defense as they have allowed 4.1 yards per carry on the season. Memphis’s one loss this season came against a Temple team that is built the same way and used the same strategy, running the ball 48 times in their matchup for 193 yards - churning away at the clock. QB’s have been able to pick up a ton of yardage on the ground against Memphis and Ridder should be able to extend some drives with his legs. This will be the toughest test to date for Memphis who has feasted big plays on bad defenses ranking 7th in explosive drive rate but Luke Fickel coaches his defenses well and doesnt give up many big plays ranking 24th in explosive drive rate allowed. We also have an advantage in special teams as Cincinnati is one of the best in the country having blocked a kick in 5 straight games - including last weeks where they blocked an extra point and returned it for a TD which was the difference in the game against Temple. I expect Cincinnati's offense to see some life against after struggling against a tough Temple team last week. This should be a hard fought one possession game and we’ll take the points.

Iowa -5.5 (-109) Risking 1.09 units to win 1 units
No write-up. Happy Thanksgiving.

[Smutbucket]

​Week 14 so far: 4-1 (+3.91 units)
Season YTD: 54-53 (-0.48 units)

Week 14 adds:
Michigan +9 (-107)
Michigan ML (+273) .25x
Louisville/UK Over 53 (-103)
Wisconsin -3 (-104)
Alabama -3 (-114)
LSU -17 (-113)

Michigan +9 (-107) Risking 1.07 units to win 1 units
Michigan ML (+273) Risking .25 units to win .68 units
Ohio State is banged up with 14 players listed on their injury report in the last two weeks with 8 of them listed as OUT. Michigan has 0. Michigan had a bye two weeks ago followed by two cupcake games they easily won. They have actually dominated 4 of their last 5 games including a matchup against a tough Notre Dame team. Ohio State is riding high on an undefeated season but I think that changes today when they go into Ann Arbor. The injuries/situational angles coupled with the coaching staff changes make this a no-brainer pick for Michigan. I’ve said it in previous write-ups and I will say it again - this is not the same coaching staff as it was last year and coaches mean everything in college football. Sure they are undefeated on the season and their talent puts them in a far greater advantage than most of their opponents but football is largely about strategy. Don Brown is one of the best in the game at defense and he’s proven it year in and year out. They have been able to get pressure all season ranking 7th in sack % and that has been an issue for Justin Fields - who despite his athletic ability is ranked 96th in sack% allowed. This should be an issue for their offense today - especially in a hostile environment - with 3 newly listed offensive linemen out - this may get ugly. Michigan pulls off the big upset and shakes everything up in the college football leader board.

Louisville/UK Over 53 (-103) Risking 1.03 units to win 1 units
Despite the rainy weather, I expect both teams to put up big points in this match-up. First off both teams depend on their run game - averaging over 60% run play % and they do it well with Louisville averaging 4.7 yards per carry and Kentucky 5.4 yards per carry. The run defenses of both of these teams are horrible with Kentucky ranking #107th and Louisville ranking 103rd. Louisville loves the big play ranking 16th in explosive drive rate and Kentucky has been vulnerable to them ranking 75th in explosive drive rate. Although Kentucky doesn't have the big play potential that Louisville has with a lowly 78th explosive drive rate ranking - Louisville's defense has given up a ton of big plays ranking 101st in the league. Louisville's defense is in the bottom 10% of almost all FEI categories and although Kentucky’s defense is middle-tiered in most of the state categories - their DFEI to opponent adjust differential is -38 rankings meaning their defense has faced some weak offensive counterparts. This is a heated rivalry match-up where the total has gone over in 4 of the last 5 match-ups despite the total being in the 60’s-70’s and I expect the trend to continue.

Wisconsin -3 (-104) Risking 1.04 units to win 1 units
I fully expect Wisconsin to stomp out Minnesota in this revenge match-up where they lost last season by 22 points despite being a 10 point favorite. I think the bookies know that too - hence the line. The biggest mismatch will be in the trenches - as Wisconsin’s offensive line heavily outranks Minnesota’s defensive line. Wisconsin should be able to run for 4 yards at will every down as they are ranked 4th in power ranking and 6th in stuff ranking. A stat category where Minnesota really struggles as they are ranked 122nd in power ranking and 90th in stuff ranking. Wisconsin’s defensive line should feast too against this below average offensive line that has put up great numbers against weak competition. Iowa held this Minnesota team to 63 yards on 30 carries on the ground and I expect this match-up to be similar in the trenches. Wisconsin loves nothing more than putting you in obvious passing situations and bringing pressure ranking 3rd in the nation at sack %. Minnesota despite it’s one loss season is ranked 109th in sack % allowed. I love this pick and the weather should also play to the advantage on Wisconsin as it will be windy and snowy.

Alabama -3 (-114) Risking 1.14 units to win 1 units
I’ve seen enough of Bo Nix in big games to see he is a giant dumpster fire against tough competition. He single handedly is responsible for all of their losses despite all the team talent around him. He’s one of these “legacy” qb’s whose last name and dad are a big reason of why he is the starter. It’s nepotism at its finest and I expect Alabama and this coaching staff to have a field day against him with pressure and exotic coverage's. You can analyze every other position in the game but this one has the most impact and I don’t see how Auburn wins this with that guy getting the snaps every down.

LSU -17 (-113) Risking 1.13 units to win 1 units

[Smutbucket]

Late Add:
Cal -1 (-110)

[Smutbucket]

​Week 14: 8-4 (+5.45 units)
Season YTD: 58-56 (+1.06 units)


Week 15 Championship Week:
Utah ML (-235) Risking 2.35 units to win 1 units
Been riding this Utah team all season, no reason to stop in this spot at good ML value. Don’t think we will sweat this at all - compared to the points which may get back-doored in the end. I’m hoping they make it to the final four as they’d be a good dog to pick as most pundits have already written off the PAC12.

[Smutbucket]

Week 15 Adds:
LSU ML (-275)
Virginia +28.5 (-107)
Wisconsin +15.5 (-102)
Wisconsin ML (+467) .5x

[Smutbucket]

Week 15 (Championship Week): 2-3 (-1.92 units)
Season YTD: 60-59 (-0.86 units)

BOWLS: (first set)
CMU +3.5 (-104) Risking 1.04 units to win 1 units
I like Central Michigan to win this one outright as Jim McElwain has had a very successful year at CMU in his first year returning to head coaching after being fired in Florida. He has had a good track record at whatever program he has been and has a 2-1 ATS bowl record and should have his team well prepared. Rocky Long, although he has built a strong defensive program at SD State, has struggled in bowl games historically going 1-4 as a head coach in New Mexico and is currently 3-5 in bowls at SD state and has lost his last two bowl games. Central Michigan is better than their record suggests as 2 of their 4 losses came in weeks 3-week 7 when Quentin Dormandy, starting QB sat out recovering from an injury. Since his return, they have won 5 of their last 7 and their only losses have come to leading conference rivals Buffalo and Miami (Ohio) in the last game of the season. We have strong indicators in the FEI ratings that show CMU has a distinct advantage on defense as San Diego State’s offense is one of the worst in the nation - ranking in the bottom 15% of almost all FEI categories. Despite San Diego state’s defensive FEI numbers looking impressive ranking 12th in DPE and 32nd in D-FEI - their opponent adjusted numbers drop off significantly to 119th as they have only played weak offensive competition. CMU’s offense, despite missing Dormandy for 4 games, has impressive FEI numbers ranking 15th in explosive drive rate, 16th in first down drive rate, and 25th in available yards percentage. We also have significant advantages at the LOS as San Diego State’s offensive line has been a huge problem for their offense and ranked 109th in line yards, 119th in opportunity rank, and 104th in stuff ranking. CMU’s defensive line, although has been against some weak competition, ranks as one of the top 25 in the nation, ranking 11th in line yards, 36th in opportunity rate, and 1st in stuff ranking. I think this will be a close low scoring game and as long as CMU can avoid painful turnovers I think they pull off the win. If you can buy the half point with your bookie under -120 to -4, you should - I did.

SMU/FAU Under 69.5 (-115) Risking 1.15 units to win 1 units
I'm about 20 miles from the stadium and a few days ago we had some frigid 70 degree cold fronts blow in that also brought in some extremely gusty winds. Winds that have been sustained at 20mph and gusts up into the 30’s. It’s absolute pandemonium. I’ve been picking up huge fallen tree branches in my yard for the last two days - just try throwing a football over 25 yards with any accuracy. Both teams rely on their passing game with both offensive lines ranking in the bottom 20% of most rushing categories. Both defensive lines outrank their offensive line counterparts by over 90 ranks in opportunity rate - one of the biggest indicators of line performance. FAU has also struggled at protecting its QB ranking 60th in sack % - while that has been the one strength of this SMU passing defense, ranking 17th in sack %. These line of scrimmage and weather factors make this a comfortable 1 unit contrarian play - as these teams tend to have high-scoring affairs, especially SMU who is 9-3 over the total so far this season.

Wash/Boise State Under 50 (-107) Risking 1.07 units
What better way for Peterson to end his career than going back to Boise and facing the program he helped build. Last time Harsin and Peterson faced off in 2015 in was a 16-13 final and I expect this game to be a similarly low scoring as both coaches must be very familiar with each other, having worked together for 8 years at Boise State. Boise has been the better team, especially on defense, but I expect Washington defense to play more motivated as this will be Peterson’s last game with the program. Washington’s defense struggled early on the season but they have since improved holding each of their last 3 opponents well under the season points average - including Washington State in Week 14 holding them to only 13 points instead of their 39 average and Oregon State, holding them to 7 points instead of their 31 points average. Washington’s defense is currently 20th in DFEI and 35th in DPE but opponent adjusted defensive numbers raise them to a ranking as high as 14th. Boises States offense in contrast drops off significantly to 103rd from 32nd as their SOS ranking is much lower ranking 86th in sagarin ratings. Both teams are well-coached and strong on special teams, ranking 19th and 29th in special teams FEI so hopefully we don’t get any mistakes or miscues that lead to points.Take the under.

[Smutbucket]

Bowl Adds:

Pittsburgh -12.5 (-114) Risking 1.14 units to win 1 units
We should have a distinct advantage at the line of scrimmage as Pittsburgh outranks EMU’s defensive line by an average of 45 ranks in all line categories and their defensive line outranks EMU’s offensive line by an average of 55 ranks. Factoring this and the fact that Pittsburgh’s SOS ouranks EMU’s by 59 rankings in the Sagarin scale and we should have a fairly one sided match. The opponent adjusted FEI ratings agree with that prediction. I think veteran QB Kenny Pickett should have a big game passing through air against this eastern Michigan defense that ranks 86th in defensive passing efficiency allowed and allowed 7.8 yards per pass this season against a very weak schedule. Pat Narduzzi should be able to get pressure like he usually does ranking 3rd in sack % and 7th in TFL’s. That should disrupt this offense enough for this to be a blowout. MAC teams haven't been very competitive in bowl games against the ACC as they are 0-21 since 2015 and I think this trend continues today in blowout fashion.

[Smutbucket]

Bowls: 1-3 (-2.33 units)
Season YTD: 61-62 (-3.19 units)’

Love both of these plays today

Bowl Adds:
Iowa -2 (-114) Risking 2.28 units to win 2 units
I really like Iowa in this spot to win easily against USC with the much stronger defense. USC’s offensive numbers are a bit skewed as they are used to facing non-existent defenses in the PAC12 - this will be one of their toughest tests to date and I think Iowa’s defense will come up with a few stops in order to win this game. Iowa’s defense is ranked 7th in yards per pass, 24th in yards per rush, and 6th in defensive FEI. Their defense doesn't give up big plays ranking 13th in explosive drive rate, something this USC offense relies on. Iowa’s offense is better than their numbers suggest as they have faced much tougher defensive competition and their offense raises from a 70th FEI ranking to a 24th ranking when factoring in opponents. They shouldn’t have an issue against this USC defense whose opponent adjusted numbers are lower than their actual FEI ratings. At the line of scrimmage, USC’s defense is one of the worst in the nation, ranking 118th in line yards, 113th in opportunity rate, and 108th in stuff ranking. Iowa also has a strong advantage in special teams as they are ranked #1 in special teams FEI and USC is ranked 92nd. Iowa is also more disciplined, ranking in the top 10 of almost all penalty categories while USC is one of the most penalized teams in the nation, averaging 7.2 penalties per game (ranked 113th). Iowa is undoubtedly the better coached team, limiting penalties and turnovers as they have only averaged 1 giveaway per game (ranking 13th) which is much better than a USC team that has averaged 1.9 giveaways per game (ranking 115th). USC is also very banged up with 20 players on its injury report ranging all over the field. For all these reasons I like Iowa to win and for two units.

Air Force ML (-128) Risking 2.56 units to win 2 units
This matchup is very favorable for Air Force as they love to run the ball down your throat and the defensive line is the biggest weakness of this Washington State team. In offensive/defensive line categories Air Force’s offensive line outranks Washington State defensive line by an average of 88 ranks, one of the largest mismatches I have seen in a while at the line of scrimmage. Air Force’s offensive line is 9th in line yards, 14th in opportunity rate, 1st in power ranking and 3rd in stuff ranking. Washington State’s defensive line is ranked 125th in line yards, 106th in opportunity rate, 51st in power ranking and 127th in stuff ranking. It’s safe to assume that Air Force should be able to run the ball for 4-5 yards at will with the large imbalance between those numbers. Air Force has consistently put up slow methodical long drives this season, ranking 7th in first down rate, 7th in touchdown rate, and 6th in available yards percentage. In contrast, that's what opponents have being doing time and time again to this Washington state defense as they are ranked 102nd in touchdown rate, 130th in first down rate, and 118th in available yards percentage. Air Force should control the clock as they have all season ranking 6th in TOP% - an area that has been a big struggle for Mike Leach’s air raid offenses for years. Air Force is coming off 7 straight wins to end the season and Washington State struggled a lot this season with their schedule going 6-6 on the year, a big drop off from an 11-2 year they had last season.

[Smutbucket]

Bowls: 3-3 (+1.67 units)

Season YTD: 63-62 (+0.81 units)

Sorry no writeups for the two games today. :-(.

Bowl Adds:
Penn State -7 (-104) Risking 1.04 units to win 1 units
Clemson/OSU under 62 (-107) Risking 1.07 units to win 1 units

[Smutbucket]

Bowls: 5-3 (+3.67 units)
Season YTD: 65-62 (+2.81 units)

Bowl Adds:
California -6.5 (-110)
California TT over 24.5 (-104)
Miss. State/ Louisville over 63.5 (-105)
Virginia +14.5 (-110)

Bowl Adds:
California -6.5 (-110) Risking 1.1 units to win 1 units
California TT over 24.5 (-104) Risking 1.04 units to win 1 units
I love this contrarian pick and originally only had for one unit but I added a unit after looking into further (can’t add units on pickmonitor so I added the TT over). On the one side, you have 8-4 ATS, big dog up-setter Illinois as yet again another dog despite beating Wisconsin, Purdue and Michigan State - on the other side you have a disappointing 7-5 Cal team that is 6-6 ATS. But this California team biggest struggles this year were at the QB position when Chase Garbers got injured. Chase Garbers looks great, and this Cal team did not lose a game when he started and played the majority of snaps (two games he started but didn't finish). They are a completely different team - averaging 25 ppg in those games compared to 15 ppg without him. He is back and healthy and that should spark this California offense. The California defense has been solid per usual for a Justin Wilcox led team, ranking 29th in opponent adjusted defensive FEI. They rarely give up big plays, ranking 18th in explosive drive rate allowed. Illinois is also largely hampered by injuries right now with 17 players listed on their injury report. Illinois has struggled all season protecting it’s QB, ranking 118th in sack rating, and this California team should get plenty of sacks ranking 36th in sack %. California is also the much more disciplined team, ranking 12th in penalties per play while Illinois is ranked 78th in penalties per play. I think California wins this one easily and expect them to have a breakout year next season with Chase Garbers only being a sophomore and already showing significant improvement from last season.

Miss. State/ Louisville over 63.5 (-105) Risking 1.05 units to win 1 units
Both teams have significant edges on the offensive side of the ball compared to their defensive counterparts. In FEI ratings, both teams rank in the bottom 20% of most categories, with Louisville's average defensive FEI ranking 94th and Mississippi State's average defensive FEI ranking 75th. Both defenses have given up a ton of big plays, Louisville ranking 110th in explosive drive rate and Mississippi State ranking 91st. Both offenses have had a bunch of explosive plays with Louisville ranking 20th in explosive drive rate and Miss. State ranking 23rd. Neither team has a has a good busted drive rate or a touchdown drive rate allowed which should lead to plenty of points. Mississippi State does have starting QB, Shrader missing in action due to injury, but backup Tommy Stephens has already seen plenty of action this season and I think Mississippi State will be able to run at will against this Louisville front that ranks 100th in line yards, 115th in opportunity rate, and 111th in stuff ranking. Mississippi State’s offensive line ranks 6th in line yards, 31st in opportunity rank, and 10th in stuff ranking so they should be able to impose their will on Louisville. Both teams also have very poor special teams FEI rankings, which should set us up for some points with Mississippi state ranking 70th in sFEI and Louisville ranking 97th. I think this one sails over the total in which should be a game where whoever has the ball last wins and could easily go into overtime.

Virginia +14.5 (-110) Risking 1.1 units to win 1 units
I’ve been betting and talking up this Virginia team all season. No reason not to back them again here getting this many points against Florida.

[Smutbucket]

Bowls: 9-3 (+7.67 units)
Season YTD: 69-62 (+6.81 units)

Officially on a heater - Let's keep it rolling! Sorry no write ups for these - just too busy at work but tomorrow will have the last couple bowls adds with write-ups and looks like there may be one remaining two unit bet! Best of luck all. These are all pickmonitor lines - with your bookies you should buy the half point in Utah and Michigan I got em both for a nice -115.

Bowl adds:
Virginia Tech ML (-128)
Utah -7 (-116)
Michigan +7 (-103)

[Smutbucket]

Bowls: 9-5 (+5.23 units)
Season YTD: 69-64 (+4.37 units)

Most likely the last two bowl plays of the season will be 2 units each. I had 1 on Tenn points but then added a 2nd on ML after looking into further. Michigan +7 is pending already for 1 unit.

Bowl Adds:
Wisconsin ML (-153) Risking 2.3 units to win 1.5 units
I’ve watched a fair amount of both of these teams and I really like Wisconsin to win big. Looking at their schedules, Wisconsin has had a much tougher road and has played a more difficult schedule and Sagarin ratings agree giving Wisconsin a 24th SOS ranking where Oregon has a 36 which I think is generous. Wisconsin has a dominant front and they outrank Oregon's offensive and defensive line on both sides of the ball by an average of 20 rankings. On defense Wisconsin is great at getting sacks ranking 2nd in sack % and Oregon has struggled at protecting their QB ranking 47th in sack% allowed. The FEI ratings agree as Wisconsin’s opponent adjusted offensive numbers increase from an already high 6th offensive FEI rating to 2nd best in the nation. Oregon’s defense in contrast drops from a 11th defensive FEI rating all the way to 58th factoring in their opponents. On offense, Oregon has the same drop off in opponent adjusted ratings as the PAC 12 is not known for its defense. Wisconsin is the more disciplined team - ranking 20th in penalties per play where Oregon ranks 91st and 118th in penalty yards per game. Wisconsin as we know loves to control the clock and they do it well, ranking 1st in TOP% holding the ball for 59% of it’s game. This has been an on-going struggle for this Oregon offense as they only possess the ball for 47% of their games - ranking 96th. In bowl games, Chryst has proven in the past to have his teams well prepared. The last two years they have won and covered easily including last years 32 point blowout when they were a 3
point dog.

Tennessee -1.5 (-117) Risking 1.17 units to win 1 units
Tennessee ML (-136) Risking 1.36 units to win 1 units
Tennessee has a strong advantage in most statistical FEI categories as well as having the harder schedule. Their offense outranks Indiana’s defense by over 50 rankings in opponent adjusted numbers, first down rate, and explosive drive rate - so there should be plenty of big plays since Indiana is ranked 120th in explosive drive rate allowed. Tennessee defense has been surprisingly great at stopping big plays themselves ranking 11th in explosive drive rate allowed - which is something this Indiana offense has struggled with anyways ranking 115th in explosive drive rate themselves on offense. We also have an advantage in special teams as Tennessee is ranked 22nd in special teams FEI. Tennessee’s biggest struggles this year has been their front 7 on defense, ranking in the bottom 20% of most defensive line categories. But that is not a strength of this Indiana team as they barely run the ball and are ranked in the bottom of almost all offensive line categories. Indiana schedules pretty pathetic even though they are in the BIG 10 and any respectable team they played won easily and most of their wins were against teams with horrible win% 's like Maryland, Rutgers, and Connecticut. Tennessee being in the SEC had a much tougher road and has won its last 5 games after finally finding some consistency at QB in Guarantano. I think Tennessee wins this won easily and this team will be pumped to be here as it’s the first bowl game under Pruitt’s tenure and a step in the right direction.

[Smutbucket]

​Couldn’t find a pick in Today’s game so totaling up the season results:


Bowls: 10-8 (+1.73 units)
2019-20 Season FINAL: 70-67 (+0.87 units) (51%)


That brings my total lifetime online posted NCAAF picks to:
601-582 (51%) +6.34 units

My past forum threads and records for NCAAF can be found at SBR and Pickmonitor for these years: (as you can see I've been struggling since joining pickmonitor but profit is profit this season and we'll take it.
NCAAF '12 Season: 80-58 (58%) +22.7 units (SBR)
NCAAF '13 Season: 96-97 (50%) +11.47 units (SBR)
NCAAF '14 Season: 66-86 (43%) -28.6 units (SBR)
NCAAF '15 Season: 82-54 (60%) +27.58 units (SBR)
NCAAF '16 Season: 65-67 (49%) -5.61 units (SBR/ PM)
NCAAF '17 Season: 74-67 (52%) +0.2 units (SBR/ PM)
NCAAF '18 Season: 68-86 (44%) -22.27 units (SBR/ PM)
NCAAF '19 Season: 70-67 (51%)+0.87 units (SBR/ PM)

Season recap:
This year was definitely streaky, came out the gate firing up 10 units quickly but then slowly regressed down to - units before streaking back up with a nice little run in the bowls - only to give it all back in the final bowl games. Had some rough bad beats but a couple fortunate breaks as well to save us some units. I definitely improved my handicapping/data analysis methods this year and am making it my goal to spend some time in the offseason doing a full-career analysis as well as getting all my past picks organized into one spreadsheet and looking into possible trends - not really sure if I’m best at totals, team totals, or moneylines or certain teams/divisions - a lifetime picks spreadsheet with everything organized well will help me determine that. I started last off-season but didn't finish but I believe I figured out a good way to import/process my data from years past just from the forum postings. Anyways, will be back next college football season for picks and write ups.