[Hman]

Nebraska leads teams that are poised for a turnaround in 2019

Phil Steele
ESPN PLUS ($ MATERIAL)


Making my most improved list has generally been a blessing for teams, as they usually make significant turnarounds. This list consists of teams that had a losing record the previous season that I think can make it to a bowl game in 2019.


Last year Florida was my No. 1 most improved team and went from 4-8 to a top-10 finish. Utah State, which was my No. 2 most improved team, went from 6-7 in 2017 to 11-2 last season. Georgia Southern, my No. 5 team on the list a season ago, had the most significant turnaround of any FBS team in 2018, going from 2-10 to 10-3 and a bowl win.


Note: Win totals courtesy of Caesars Sportsbook, except where noted (*provided by FanDuel).



1. Nebraska Cornhuskers (O/U 8.5 wins)

If you watched the Huskers' first six games last year, they were better than an 0-6 team. In the second half of the season, Nebraska went 4-2, averaged 36.6 points per game and nearly pulled the upset at Ohio State, losing 36-31. The Huskers have 13 starters back, including dual-threat quarterback Adrian Martinez, who had 2,617 passing yards and 629 rushing yards a year ago. The Huskers are on the right track under head coach Scott Frost and are my pick to come out of the Big Ten West.



2. Florida Atlantic Owls (8*)

The Owls finished 5-7 after an 11-3 season in 2017. FAU brings in former Florida State quarterback Deondre Francois and former Alabama running back B.J. Emmonson offense. Six starters are back on defense, including linebacker Rashad Smith, who led FAU with 86 tackles in 2018. There is plenty of talent on both sides of the ball, and the Owls will be in contention for the Conference USA East crown.


3. Florida State Seminoles (7)

Last year the Seminoles finished with a losing record for the first time since 1976! I have been waiting for the day to put Florida State on this list and see the Seminoles improving in Year 2 under Willie Taggart, as they have 16 starters back (eight on both sides of the ball). Florida State gets its leading rusher back on offense, and eight of the top 10 tacklers return on defense. The Seminoles have four units that rank in my top 25, and I am looking for them to bounce back in 2019.


4. Virginia Tech Hokies (8)

The Hokies return 16 starters, 10 of them on defense. The Hokies are another team I have waited to put on this list for quite some time, as last year they endured their first losing record since 1992! After losing several key starters on defense in 2018 and allowing 439 yards per game, Virginia Tech defensive coordinator Bud Foster will surely have the Hokies' D back to their typical production, and that will help them get back to a winning record.


5. Air Force Falcons (6.5*)

After reaching three straight bowl games from 2014 to 2016, Air Force is coming off of back-to-back 5-7 finishes. But they have 14 starters returning and jump to No. 25 on my experience chart. Head coach Troy Calhoun enters his 13th season in Colorado Springs, and this is his best team in years. I expect the Falcons to contend in the Mountain West this year.


6. USC Trojans (7)

The Trojans suffered their first losing record since 2000 last year. Freshman quarterback JT Daniels showed his inexperience at times but still managed to throw for 2,672 yards and looked comfortable in the new offensive system implemented by first-year offensive coordinator Graham Harrell. Daniels will have my No. 3 set of wide receivers to throw to, and the defense should show some overall improvement with five starters back for 2019.


7. Tennessee Volunteers (6.5)

While the Vols have the seventh-toughest schedule in the country, they are the second-most experienced team in the SEC, coming in at No. 21 overall on my experience chart. Tennessee has an underrated quarterback in Jarrett Guarantano and an offense that brings back 10 starters, including its top two rushers, top seven receivers and four starting offensive linemen. The defense should also be much improved with six starters back, and the Vols should reach a bowl game after missing the postseason the past two seasons.


8. Arizona Wildcats (6.5)

The Wildcats are coming off a 5-7 season but return 15 starters, including dual-threat quarterback Khalil Tate and dynamic running back J.J. Taylor. The defense should show improvement as well with eight starters back, including top tackler Colin Schooler (119 tackles, 21.5 tackles for loss). After 10 games last season, Arizona was 5-5 and tied for first in the Pac-12 South. Head coach Kevin Sumlin has a talented team on his hands and should get the Wildcats back to a bowl in 2019.


9. SMU Mustangs (6*)

The Mustangs add Texas grad transfer quarterback Shane Buechele to a team that already has 16 returning starters. Buechele will get the luxury of throwing to my No. 11-rated group of receivers that includes James Proche(1,199 yards, 12 TDs in 2018). Nine starters return on defense, as do eight of the top 11 tacklers, so I look for improved numbers for them. Overall, SMU has a great shot at getting to a bowl.


10. Texas Tech Red Raiders (6)

The Red Raiders bring in Matt Wells from Utah State as their new head coach. Wells did an excellent job with the Aggies, leading them to 11 wins last season. He will inherit 13 returning starters, including quarterback Alan Bowman, who picked up the new offense quite well in the spring and showed improved accuracy. This defense has shown improvement the past two seasons, and with six starters back in 2019, that trend could continue.


11. Purdue Boilermakers (7)

I have to admit, this was a tough team for me to forecast. Purdue brings back just 12 starters and comes in at No. 126 on my experience chart. Additionally, the Boilermakers take on the 22nd toughest schedule this season. Purdue will need to keep quarterback Elijah Sindelar upright and will look to get the ball to All-American receiver Rondale Moore (1,258 yards, 12 TDs in 2018) as often as possible. On defense, the Boilermakers return nine starters and four of their top five tacklers and should improve from a year ago when they allowed 453 yards and 30 points per game.


12. UCLA Bruins (6)

The Bruins went 3-9 a year ago under first-year head coach Chip Kelly. This season, however, the Bruins take a big leap to No. 39 on my experience chart, but they also face the eighth-toughest schedule. With nine starters back on offense, I predict a significant increase in the offensive production (393 yards per game, 24.6 points per game in 2018), while the defense also brings back a wealth of experience, with 10 starters returning and 13 of their top 14 tacklers. UCLA avoids Washington and Oregon out of the North and has a great shot at getting back to a bowl.


13. Indiana Hoosiers (6)

After 5-7 finishes each of the past two seasons, the Hoosiers could be on their way back to a bowl game, as they are a deeper team than in years past. The majority of my nine sets of power ratings call for Indiana to reach the postseason. The Hoosiers have a solid running game led by Stevie Scott (1,137 yards, 10 TDs in 2018), and their defense returns eight of their top 11 tacklers.




14. Navy Midshipmen (5)

Navy finished 3-10 last year for their first losing record since 2012. Malcolm Perry is back at quarterback (1,087 yards as a slotback in 2018), and Navy has tailored the offense to better fit his strengths. As for the defense, only four starters are back, but head coach Ken Niumatalolo felt good about what he saw from the defense during the spring. Navy has reached a bowl nine times in 11 seasons under Niumatalolo, and this year it has the talent to get back to the postseason.


15. Ole Miss Rebels (4.5)

Ole Miss brings back just three starters on offense, but I like redshirt freshman quarterback Matt Corral, and the offensive line should be better than expected. As for the defense, they return 10 starters and added a great hire in Mike MacIntyre to be the new defensive coordinator, so we could see a return of that Landshark defense we saw in 2015. Ole Miss has a shot at a bowl game but will likely need to pull off an upset in conference play to get to six wins.

[ChuckyTheGoat]

Phil provides a ton of INFORMATION. As for creating a platform to generate $$, I don't think so.

[ChuckyTheGoat]

For example, NEB will surely be better. But it already appears to be priced into the line, at 8.5 o/u wins.

Huskers already a huge fav in season opener. So where's the value, Phil?

Read Phil's script closely. Guy doesn't bet. Quotes stats on S/U improvement, not ATS winners.

[gojetsgomoxies]

For example, NEB will surely be better. But it already appears to be priced into the line, at 8.5 o/u wins.

Huskers already a huge fav in season opener. So where's the value, Phil?

Read Phil's script closely. Guy doesn't bet. Quotes stats on S/U improvement, not ATS winners.

i like phil's stuff....... but he credits himself with predicting southern mississippi won more games the season after they went 0-12... i agree completely that he needs to say these teams will have ATS winning records.

also, strength of schedule changes alot........ a big one is the Big 10 West teams play 3 teams from the East. so it's 3 of mich/ohiostate,mstate, rutgers, indiana, maryland. makes a huge diff if you duck both ohio state and mich. not sure if they structure it so you won't play mich, ohs and mstate in one season, but you can see that there are huge differences in possible west-east big 10 schedule

[BigdaddyQH]

Steele is not worth a s**t. Anyone can make these predictions. He is so f**king broke that he had to go to work for ESPN. That is how much money his gambling and his rag have cost him in the past 5 years.

[ChuckyTheGoat]

i like phil's stuff....... but he credits himself with predicting southern mississippi won more games the season after they went 0-12... i agree completely that he needs to say these teams will have ATS winning records.

also, strength of schedule changes alot........ a big one is the Big 10 West teams play 3 teams from the East. so it's 3 of mich/ohiostate,mstate, rutgers, indiana, maryland. makes a huge diff if you duck both ohio state and mich. not sure if they structure it so you won't play mich, ohs and mstate in one season, but you can see that there are huge differences in possible west-east big 10 schedule

Exactly, Jets. People have commented on the 50pages of fluff that open his book. Nonsense just like what u posted.

No shit, SoMiss is going to improve on the 0-12. It's pretty tough to get worse.

Steele's writeups drive me insane...precisely b/c he DOESN'T BET. We purchase the book to gain an edge on the BETTING mkt. Steele just doesn't pick up on that.

[ChuckyTheGoat]

Steele also talks about his projections yielding Bowl projections, etc. Like u say, Steele factors in SOS. That's fine...but we want ATS WINNERS.