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Dark horse bets to win the College Football Playoff 🏈
Dark horse bets to win the College Football Playoff
Phil Steele
ESPN PLUS ($ MATERIAL)
Like most folks, I am forecasting a return to the national title game for Clemson and Alabama, but the odds are too low on both to make a real investment into them. Caesars Sportsbook just released their odds to win the national title, so I will look at teams with favorable odds and a chance -- if everything falls into place -- to be this year's surprise championship game winner.
Utah Utes (75-1)
The list of potential surprises in my magazine is made up of teams that are not in the top 10 at the start of the season that I think can make the College Football Playoff. My No. 1 surprise team last year in the magazine was the Notre Dame Fighting Irish. Notre Dame finished the season 12-0 and made the playoff. This year's top surprise team is the Utah Utes. Utah has my top-rated defensive line, which goes 11 deep and has six or seven NFL-caliber linemen. All of the other units are solid, including special teams. Utah lost quarterback Tyler Huntley and star running back Zack Moss to injury with five games left in the season last year and still got to the Pac-12 title game and nearly knocked off Washington. Huntley and Moss are both back this season, and Oregon and Stanford drop off the schedule. The Utes are my pick to win the Pac-12, and if they do run the table and make the playoff, they have the defense to win the title. And Utah has excellent odds at 75-1.
Oklahoma Sooners (14-1)
The Sooners must replace their Heisman Trophy-winning quarterback and the No. 1 overall selection in the NFL draft for a second straight year. Head coach Lincoln Riley begins the year with a transfer quarterback for the third consecutive season. Jalen Hurts is the most accomplished of the three, going 24-2 as the starting quarterback at Alabama. The defense will be improved, and the biggest question may be the offensive line, which loses four starters from the Joe Moore Award-winning line last year. Oklahoma figures to be favored in all 12 games, giving them a direct path to the playoff. Riley has been to the playoff in both of his seasons as head coach, and when a team will be favored in all of their games and has odds of 14-1, they are worth a look.
TCU Horned Frogs (250-1)
I could make a case for five teams winning the Big 12 this year, and the champion of that conference has made the playoff three of the past four years despite absorbing a loss during the regular season. TCU was one of the most injury-plagued teams in college football last year, but head coach Gary Patterson still steered the Horned Frogs to a bowl game. When Patterson has a down year; the Frogs usually bounce back with a big season. TCU was 4-8 in 2013, but in 2014 was No. 3 in the playoff rankings entering the final week -- but got passed over for the final playoff berth by Ohio State. Patterson's squad was 6-7 in 2016 but in 2017 reached as high as No. 4 in the AP poll and lost to Oklahoma in the Big 12 title game. It is bounce-back time once again, and I have the Frogs No. 3 on my surprise team list. Last years' injuries make them much more experienced than their 12 returning starters would indicate. TCU has allowed just 334 yards per game over the past two years, which is the best mark in the Big 12, and the Frogs could have the league's top defense again. TCU ranks among my top units in seven of the eight categories and has the path to make the playoff if they stay healthy. With Patterson's bounce-back history, 250-1 odds are a gift.
Miami Hurricanes (60-1)
Miami possesses two things I like in a national title contender: a top-10 defense and a manageable schedule. Manny Diaz is a first-year head coach, but he ran the Hurricanes' defense the past three years and last year they allowed just 279 yards per game. Diaz has three linebackers entering their fourth year as starters. The Canes have six starters back on defense overall and add some talented transfers from USC and Virginia Tech. When I talked to Diaz this spring, he was very high on the addition of offensive coordinator Dan Enos. Miami's quarterbacks combined to complete 51.1 percent of their passes with 14 interceptions last year, and no matter who wins the job, those numbers will be much improved. Miami also plays my 69th-ranked schedule and is my pick to make the ACC title game. If the Hurricanes were to pull an upset and knock off Clemson in that game and have just one loss, they would likely make the playoff. With that defense, they would be a threat in the playoff, and 60-1 odds make it a low risk, high reward investment.
LSU Tigers (25-1)
I have LSU as the fourth-most talented team in the country, and generally teams at that level would be at 7-1 or less to win it all, but the Tigers come in at 25-1. One reason for the inflated odds is the fact that LSU lost to Alabama 29-0 last year in Death Valley and now has to face Alabama on the road. That is one game, and those two teams are much closer talent-wise than last years' final score would indicate. Last year LSU was the No. 129 team on my experience chart, and this year they jump up to No. 19 with eight starters back on both offense and defense. Last year, LSU was an underdog in five games but still made it to 10-3 and No. 6 in the final AP poll. The schedule this season is more manageable, and the Tigers might be an underdog in just one game: their trip to Alabama. With the fourth-most talented team in the country, the Tigers are a great value at 25-1.
Arizona State Sun Devils (750-1)
You go to a game and spend $10 for a beer. If you stop in a sportsbook, this would be an excellent team to throw those $10 on this season. I do not have Arizona State winning the Pac-12; I have them coming in third in their division. I list them here because the odds you will get offered some excellent value. Teams priced from 750-1 to 1000-1 include the likes of Louisville and Arkansas (both 2-10 last year), as well as two teams I pick to finish in the basement in Colorado and Georgia Tech. Arizona State is breaking in a new quarterback but has four top-notch freshmen they can turn to, and the new quarterback will have the benefit of running back Eno Benjamin, who ran for 1,642 yards last year. The Sun Devils have my No. 17 offensive line and No. 9 set of linebackers. Last year the Sun Devils lost six games, but five of those were by seven points or less, and the bowl game was closer than the 11-point loss indicates. UCLA is 300-1, and they were 3-9 last year and face a tougher schedule. Arizona State should be priced at about 150-1, and I am intrigued by the value at 750-1.
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Originally Posted by temple2010
