1. #1
    gojetsgomoxies
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    2019 up/down teams from reading magazines

    from reading preview mags and the internet, here are some teams to look at.

    moving up:

    oregon state - i think they were moving up anyway, but they have 4 of the top 50 transfers in the country. ex.QB's, they probably have 4 of the top 25 transfers.

    miami florida - i like them already but some nice transfers including QB

    minnesota - nice balance between returning O and D

    moving down:

    USC - never seen so many freshmen and sophomores in a starting 22.

    kentucky - lost alot of NFL talent last couple of years.

    arkansas - lost alot of talent.

    will come up with more

  2. #2
    gojetsgomoxies
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    moving down,

    fresno state - love tedford but lost so many key players

    moving up,

    hawaii i think is lining up nicely.. i have seen suggestion that DLine is still very sub-par.

  3. #3
    gojetsgomoxies
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    moving down

    washington huskies. lost almost their entire defense (and that defense had it going for quite a few years)... love peterson and they do have absolute stud transfer QB.

  4. #4
    gojetsgomoxies
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    won't give my reasoning right now on some i add here. but usually it has to do with returning starters and program momentum. transfers are becoming more important and aren't highly analyzed (outside of QB). i also like good recruiting classes even if the players won't play this year as i think it lights a fire under the starters.

    moving up,

    missouri
    illlinois (i'll probably regret this)

    moving down,

    nc state
    g tech

  5. #5
    BigdaddyQH
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    Where do I start? Let's take Missouri. They do have talent returning, but they lost their #1 QB Drew Lock and he will not be easy to replace. They are also on probation and banned from any post season activity in 2019. They may end up 8-4 again, but I can't see any improvement.

    Oregon State has won 1 conference game in two years. Their non-con schedule consists of Oklahoma State and Cal Poly at home, and Hawaii in Hawaii. It appears that there is no one they can defeat in conference play as all 9 teams are picked to finish at 6-6 or better. 2 wins looks like the high water mark for this team this season.

    USC will definitely NOT move down. Their talent level is still very high, no matter what their class status may be. They have a very difficult schedule and their HC's job is on the line, but 5 wins in their final 6 games is possible, as is 7 wins over all.

  6. #6
    gojetsgomoxies
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    BigDaddy,

    thx for comments. and good point on drew lock and missouri.

    my only considerations of how good a team is its power rating vs. last year... did the team improve? if oregon state lost to X team by 30 points last year and 14 points this year, they improved by 16 points (based on that one game. and need to adjust home/road too)

    and then my use of improved/worse analysis is for ATS betting. not team win totals like phil steele does. it was especially comical when phil patted himself on the back that he correctly predicted that 0-12 southern mississippi would improve (its win total)....

    i am highly confident USC will be worse vis-a-vis power ranking this year vs. last year.

  7. #7
    gojetsgomoxies
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    i looked up ourlads.com depth chart for USC football....... 12 of the 22 starters are freshmen or sophomore. 7 of 11 on defense. yikes

  8. #8
    gojetsgomoxies
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    texas, which has be cited for experience issues this season, is 9 of 22 starters fr/soph.

  9. #9
    BigdaddyQH
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    Quote Originally Posted by gojetsgomoxies View Post
    i looked up ourlads.com depth chart for USC football....... 12 of the 22 starters are freshmen or sophomore. 7 of 11 on defense. yikes
    How many of those Sophs started games last season? 3 sophs have starting experience. So technically, USC returns 7 players with starting experience on defense. Their offense has more talent at the skill position than most in the conference. The line is going t need work. They also have a brand new system to learn. USC's power ranking at the end of this season will be MUCH higher than the end of last season.

  10. #10
    gojetsgomoxies
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    BigDaddy, u are correct on USC as i didn't realize how bad they were last season. sagarin had them #51 (probably a FCS team or two ahead of them, so maybe #49 really). collegefootballnews.com had them #87 - yikes!!!

    massey #55 and no FCS ahead of that.

  11. #11
    BigdaddyQH
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    I think that USC starts off 2-3, with losses to Stanford and Utah at home, and Washington on the road. Helton gets fired after the Washington game, giving USC's "interim" head coach two weeks to prepare for the Notre Dame game, at South Bend. A loss there sends them to 2-4. Wins against both Arizona's, Colorado and Cal get them to 6-6.

  12. #12
    gojetsgomoxies
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    how good are top juco teams?

    was wondering about this but no idea.

    would a top juco team bottom-feeder but competitive in MAC or sun belt?

    some good talent at top juco, but i'm wondering about quantity of talent, depth and discipline...

    probably answered my own question as i don't think they would be competitive.

    sort of like alabama vs. worst nfl team. alabama has great talent, but nfl team has hordes of good to great talent. and won't be starting a 17 year old, like alabama might.

  13. #13
    BigdaddyQH
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    Highly unlikely. Oh they may be able to win a game or so, but the layers are simply too young to have developed their talent level to defeat teams at the FB and FCS level consistently.

  14. #14
    daneblazer
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    Quote Originally Posted by gojetsgomoxies View Post
    was wondering about this but no idea.

    would a top juco team bottom-feeder but competitive in MAC or sun belt?

    some good talent at top juco, but i'm wondering about quantity of talent, depth and discipline...

    probably answered my own question as i don't think they would be competitive.

    sort of like alabama vs. worst nfl team. alabama has great talent, but nfl team has hordes of good to great talent. and won't be starting a 17 year old, like alabama might.
    A MAC or Sun Belt team would kill a JUCO team.

  15. #15
    gojetsgomoxies
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    Quote Originally Posted by daneblazer View Post
    A MAC or Sun Belt team would kill a JUCO team.
    dane, thx... yes, i have come to that conclusion myself.

    was looking at a team i'm familiar with. palm springs-based team. fairly competitive. but not a good team by any stretch ....

    they have placed 17 players at the next level over 4 years. so 4 players a year. VERY LOW........... one player went to UCLA, one went to kentucky (a "name" player).. the rest didn't go FBS. (one went to a school that switched - is switching? - to FCS)....

    AND, it looks like the team has 50 players or so. vs. 85 players on scholarship at FBS...... and fair number of local kids and i'd assume quite a few paying to play football.

    so it would be a massacre........ i think i was thrown off by san franCC or san mateo CC sending kids to alabama, auburn etc. every few years. but that's one player every few years.

  16. #16
    BigdaddyQH
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    Are you talking about College of the Desert?

  17. #17
    gojetsgomoxies
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    Quote Originally Posted by BigdaddyQH View Post
    Are you talking about College of the Desert?
    yes,.... stephen johnson, QB kentucky, from there. i think that's his correct name. ........ not sure how competitive their league is, but their record is ok........ i'm guessing there are tons of JC teams better than them but they aren't close to the very bottom either

  18. #18
    BigdaddyQH
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    I believe they were 4-6 last season, losing two games by a total of 5 points, and one in O.T.

  19. #19
    gojetsgomoxies
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    Quote Originally Posted by BigdaddyQH View Post
    I believe they were 4-6 last season, losing two games by a total of 5 points, and one in O.T.
    thx............ i compared their record to cali JC rankings and they were reasonably competitive with teams in the top 20. so they are a decent team (note i consider losing 49-21 competitive........

    some of my local college teams have almost lost 100-0 before. i remember an exhibition game where i drove by the stadium and saw the scoreboard and it was 28-0. not so bad, OOPS it was 128-0 (but that was an exhibition game as noted)... so 49-21 is competitive. the points scored being impressive

  20. #20
    gojetsgomoxies
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    doesn't seem to be that much separation in JC football which probably makes sense in terms of talent flow. sorry, didn't really explain this well. but i will

  21. #21
    gojetsgomoxies
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    i did a bunch more work but don't have my notes in front of me.

    i love that athlon (i think it's them) has quite substantial comments from another team's coach/scout. so insightful

    anyway, i loved this idea.... everyone focussed on ole miss and its sanctions a few years ago. but the real hit to performance comes a few years later (i.e RIGHT NOW) when the 2 and 3 star recruits start playing major roles... makes complete sense to me. for the first couple of years after sanctions, they still have a bunch of 4 (5?) star recruits playing key roles.

  22. #22
    BigdaddyQH
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    I get all of the magazines and IMO, Athlon is the best for what it attempts to achieve. I do like their added section that tells us how the opposition coaches size up each team. Steele is a complete fraud, IMO. He uses 300 pages to get 50 pages worth of info out, and most of that is just his opinion. You hardly see his rag at an retail stores any more.

    For record keeping purposes and information on the technical side of handicapping, Mark Lawrences Playbook is the best around. I use it when i am factoring in the technical side of wagering, such as past performances against other teams and other situations. I use fundamentals, situational, and technical statistics when capping, plus what my gut tells me. Common Sense is also a big plus.

  23. #23
    daneblazer
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    Missouri’s schedule is a joke. They’re a team who’s record could be much better than what they are on the field

  24. #24
    gojetsgomoxies
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    i agree on phil steele to some degree..

    i think he'd do well to put out another magazine with some basic info and a few paragraphs on each team...

    if i was really serious about CFB betting/handicapping, i'd pay someone to do alot of photocopying and re-arrange the whole thing.. i find the tiny print because there's so much historical detail very annoying

    also think connelly and others are doing a really good job on the internet.... phil's bit thing for me was returning starters. but other people do it now (or always did)

  25. #25
    BigdaddyQH
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    Mizzou's problem is that they are on suspension. That plus the loss of Drew Lock make them a tough team to try and figure out.

  26. #26
    gojetsgomoxies
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    haven't seen marc lawrence nor phil steele in vancouver, bc for a long time.

    chapters/indigo (our B&N) doesn't seem to have cfb mags this year.

  27. #27
    BigdaddyQH
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    Quote Originally Posted by gojetsgomoxies View Post
    haven't seen marc lawrence nor phil steele in vancouver, bc for a long time.

    chapters/indigo (our B&N) doesn't seem to have cfb mags this year.
    I have Lawrence's Mag mailed to me. I get a free copy. Steele I could care less about, but they still send me a copy of the College Rag.

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