USC Trojans best bets to finish on top

07/20/2007 09:27 AM
By: Chance Harper

Having gone two seasons without a National Championship, the West Coast is champing at the bit to return to gridiron glory. And with the talent Pete Carroll has once again assembled at USC, the Trojans have a great chance to follow through on their hopes of once against standing at the top of the BCS rankings.

The times are changin’ back.
USC Trojans best bets to finish on top

College football’s national championship has eluded the Pacific 10 for two years now. That’s two years too long for folks on the Left Coast; this is a conference that is fighting for respect, to be recognized right up there with the big boys. Three of the 10 teams finished in the Top 25 last year, while only two posted losing records. Better results are expected across the board, most notably in Los Angeles.

The USC Trojans (-175 to win the Pac-10) are the overwhelming choice to go into the preseason as the No. 1 team in the country. This has been a model program under Pete Carroll; after going 6-6 in his first year in charge back in 2000, the Trojans have won at least a share of the conference title five straight seasons, winning at least 11 games each time. There is little reason to expect anything different in 2007 as Southern Cal is a strong candidate to finish the season undefeated and win its third national championship under Carroll.

The main obstacle in USC’s path comes from up the coast. The California Golden Bears (+385) have been upwardly mobile in their five years under Jeff Tedford. Before he arrived the Bears were 1-10. Last year, they were 10-3 -- including a 45-10 spanking of Texas A&M at the Holiday Bowl -- and shared the Pac-10 title with the Trojans.

Tedford is one of the brightest offensive minds at the college level and is expected to get the NFL call before long. His offense returns eight starters, led by star junior quarterback Nate Longshore, but there are enough question marks on the defensive line to keep Cal in the shadow of the Trojans.

Getting three teams in the Top 25 hinges on the UCLA Bruins (+1000). This team desperately needs some consistency. Having 20 returning starters is a step in the right direction, but the Bruins are anything but grounded when it comes to their quarterback and their place-kicker. Ben Olson has the starting QB job back after losing it to Pat Cowan because of a knee injury. The top pivot of the 2003 recruiting class remains an unproven commodity; Olson played just five games last year as a freshman, with five touchdown throws and five interceptions.

UCLA will also have to find a replacement for All-American kicker Justin Medlock, now with the Kansas City Chiefs. Redshirt freshman Kai Forbath is the likely choice, but was less than impressive during the spring sessions.

The Pac-10 has apparently declared war on the middle class. The Bruins were one of five clubs to finish within one game of .500 last year, overall and in conference play, with a combined record of 32-28 against the spread. The 2007 campaign should be different. The Oregon Ducks (+1200), Arizona Wildcats (+1500) and Arizona State Sun Devils (+1500) are all sleeper candidates who believe this will be their turnaround season. Arizona is poised for a breakthrough as respected coach Mike Stoops enters his fourth year at the helm, veteran coach Dennis Erickson is in his first year with ASU after Dirk Koetter was given the boot, and Oregon’s offense looked very good this spring with new coordinator Chip Kelly calling the shots.

Fans of the Oregon State Beavers, take heart. Never mind that your team is a +3000 long shot to take the Pac-10 title despite winning 10 games last year. That just doesn’t seem right. There is talent on both sides of the ball and on special teams, where Alexis Serna is one of the best kickers in the nation. The big debate is at quarterback; sophomore Sean Canfield will probably win the starting job, and he has the skills to be an improvement over Matt Moore, but he saw very little action during conference play in 2006.

Bringing up the rear are the Washington Huskies (+3000), the Washington State Cougars (+3300) and the Stanford Cardinal (+5000). All three should finish with losing records this year, although Stanford is worth a look in ATS situations in Year One of its rebuilding program under Jim Harbaugh. The Cardinal can’t get much worse after going 1-11 SU and 3-8 ATS in 2006.

Harbaugh was a successful coach in Division I-AA, so the good vibes in Stanford are based on more than his NFL pedigree. Just watch out for that Oct. 6 game at USC, Jim. It’s a doozy.