1. #1
    A Quant
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    Quant's College Football Bowl Thread with write-ups

    Closed out pretty good-- winning 6 of my last 8 weeks.

    The Bowl season is just a continuation of the regular season--- you can find a lot of advantages.

    Anyway, no further delays--- today's plays and my reasons for.......

    1. Auto Nation Cure Bowl. Tulane (-3) v. Louisiana

    Two relatively bad offenses-- but Tulane has the much better defense. Tulane has held teams to fewer than 135 yards rushing in 7 of their last 9 games, Louisiana not so much at stopping the run......they simply struggle at stopping the run, and here comes Willie Fritz' option game. 2 stable coaching staffs-- Tulane runs it better, can throw it better, and is better at stopping the run.

    The line is 3. I like Tulane by as much as 10. I don't need the hook, I'll lay the 3.5 at -108.

    Tulane 3.24/3

    2. New Mexico Bowl. North Texas (+8) v. Utah State.

    This opened up at 10, and has been played down to 7 right now. I got it at 8.

    I just don't like teams that lose coaches to other programs. This one is weird-- Matt Wells from Utah State is now the head coach at Texas Tech, and Seth Littrell is being whispered on a few openings as well. Still, Littrell is still coaching North Texas.

    Both of these teams can move the ball, NT is averaging 36 points per game-- and I love Mason Fine the Mean Green's QB--He has thrown for 27 TDs, just 5 picks-- and his QB rating puts him 8th in the NCAA.

    Some guys I respect love Utah State-- but honestly, Utah State has beaten just 2 teams with a winning record, and North Texas can and will move the ball. This is a shoot out--- Utah State by 4, I like North Texas.

    North Texas 3.3/3

    3. Mitsubishi Motors Las Vegas Bowl. Fresno State (-4) v. Arizona State.

    Two stable coaching staffs--- Jeff Tedford has turned Fresno around, and they can play defense. They split with Boise this year, winning the Mountain West, and the total of their 2 losses this year is 14 points. Not a big fan of common opps, but ASU did lose to San Diego State, while Fresno beat them 23-14.

    Why Fresno? Defense, defense, defense. Fresno brings in the 13th ranked defense, only 1 team managed to score north of 20 on Fresno--- Toledo. Fresno won 49-27.

    Arizona State gives up points--- giving up 99 points in just their last 3 games.

    Player to watch for you if you have not seen Fresno play-- QB Marcus McMaryion. Oregon State transfer-- he can sling it--- throwing for more than 3400 yards and 25 scores-- oh, yeah, he can run a little too.

    Fresno State -4 is the play.

    3.3/3

    4. Raycom Media Camellia Bowl. Eastern Michigan (+3) v. Georgia Southern.

    Georgia Southern is going to run the ball-- and I doubt they will throw it. At all. GS's option attack tore teams up early---then hit the skids in losses to UL-Monroe and Troy.

    Why I like EMU?

    Some tough losses for EMU--- 3 points to NIU, 3 points to San Diego State, 3 points to Western Michigan, and they beat Purdue.

    Tyler Wiegers an Iowa transfer had a decent year---- he threw for about 1900 yards, makes very few mistakes, and keeps moving the chains.

    EMU has faced a better option team in Army--- and while they lost, I think it helps them.

    EMU +3, 3.3/3

    5. R + L Carriers New Orleans Bowl. Appalachian State (-6) v. Middle Tennessee.

    Middle Tennessee is a schizophrenic team, they will struggle to stop Appalachian State. Zac Thomas isn't asked to do much-- but he simply runs the offense well. I don't see Middle Tennessee being able to stop Appalachian State-----

    I love me some Appalachian State at -6.

    4.4/4

  2. #2
    albinoshark
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    Looks good today A Quant, nicely done. Decent write-ups as well.

  3. #3
    A Quant
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    Nice little start to bowl season.

    I went 4-1, winning 9.7 units.

    More coming.

  4. #4
    BigdaddyQH
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    Good start. Are you planning to wager on every bowl game? If so, the next 3 games look to be tough, with the favorite in all 3 games at -2 1/2. I have nothing on any of those games but just looking at the intangibles it is hard to see any dogs doing real well here. Cinderella UAB against Northern Illinois who played well when they needed to but mailed in the rest of the season. Are they going for a vacation in Boca? Ohio vs San Diego State. Ohio won 5 out of their last 6. San Diego State lost 4 out of their last 5. The MWC is much better than the MAC, so go figure. Marshall vs USF. Marshall played up to their seasonal expectations. USF bought into Charlie Strongs B.S. for just so long, winning their first 7 games. Then the players got tired of hearing it and proceeded to lose their last 5. It is a home game for USF so will that fire them up or give them a who cares attitude? So far, I am passing on all three of these games. GL.

  5. #5
    A Quant
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    Quote Originally Posted by BigdaddyQH View Post
    Good start. Are you planning to wager on every bowl game? If so, the next 3 games look to be tough, with the favorite in all 3 games at -2 1/2. I have nothing on any of those games but just looking at the intangibles it is hard to see any dogs doing real well here. Cinderella UAB against Northern Illinois who played well when they needed to but mailed in the rest of the season. Are they going for a vacation in Boca? Ohio vs San Diego State. Ohio won 5 out of their last 6. San Diego State lost 4 out of their last 5. The MWC is much better than the MAC, so go figure. Marshall vs USF. Marshall played up to their seasonal expectations. USF bought into Charlie Strongs B.S. for just so long, winning their first 7 games. Then the players got tired of hearing it and proceeded to lose their last 5. It is a home game for USF so will that fire them up or give them a who cares attitude? So far, I am passing on all three of these games. GL.
    I like two of the games.

    I'll write them up tomorrow.

    I love the re-birth of the UAB program under Bill Clark-- he should have rec'd some consideration for COY-- the program was boarded up just a few years ago-- and now they are playing decent football.

    I think they will give NIU all kinds of fits.

    I also like Frank Solich and his Ohio U team.

    I will write more tomorrow.

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  7. #7
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    Quote Originally Posted by A Quant View Post
    I like two of the games.

    I'll write them up tomorrow.

    I love the re-birth of the UAB program under Bill Clark-- he should have rec'd some consideration for COY-- the program was boarded up just a few years ago-- and now they are playing decent football.

    I think they will give NIU all kinds of fits.

    I also like Frank Solich and his Ohio U team.

    I will write more tomorrow.
    Clark 1000% should’ve won COY. Like UAB a lot, just looks like everyone is on them so that’s my only concern. Best of luck going forward

  8. #8
    gojetsgomoxies
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    quant, good stuff.

    i was talking about running game being the basis for tons of seemingly successful college bowl ATS systems.... basically, running game is easy to start right up with little practice, unlike passing game. and of course, if running game is extremely important in bowl games, then rush defense is very important too.

    anyway, it seemed like 4 of the first 5 bowls went that way. better rushing team (combo O and D) covered... i will check and post.

    and also FWIW, i look at kambour.net ATS picks each week. just another power rating. anyway, i think it went 5-0 on the first games.

    ohio was very hot at end of year. lots of respect for rocky long at SDSU and they seemed to right the ship late in the season. but i like the bobcats.

  9. #9
    ChuckyTheGoat
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    qUANT, nice start. Keep it up.

    Guys, let's address one issue. How can UAB be that good, in just 2nd year of re-start? Would think they're a tad over-rated (but that's just me talking).

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    A Quant
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    Quote Originally Posted by gojetsgomoxies View Post
    quant, good stuff.

    i was talking about running game being the basis for tons of seemingly successful college bowl ATS systems.... basically, running game is easy to start right up with little practice, unlike passing game. and of course, if running game is extremely important in bowl games, then rush defense is very important too.

    anyway, it seemed like 4 of the first 5 bowls went that way. better rushing team (combo O and D) covered... i will check and post.

    and also FWIW, i look at kambour.net ATS picks each week. just another power rating. anyway, i think it went 5-0 on the first games.

    ohio was very hot at end of year. lots of respect for rocky long at SDSU and they seemed to right the ship late in the season. but i like the bobcats.
    All good points. I am really liking Ohio. It's weird-- all the metrics point San Diego State--- SDS has the better Defensive FEI, played the tougher schedule, but my PWR sets still have Ohio.

  11. #11
    A Quant
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    Quote Originally Posted by ChuckyTheGoat View Post
    qUANT, nice start. Keep it up.

    Guys, let's address one issue. How can UAB be that good, in just 2nd year of re-start? Would think they're a tad over-rated (but that's just me talking).
    Thank you Chucky! Good luck to you!

    And, right about UAB? Everyone is on them. So much so, I am actually pulling back right now-- just a little. My vacaction started Friday-- wife is out shopping, kids in school-- I am going to really look at FEI's of UAB-- sometimes too much data isn't a good thing----and this may be one of those-- I love UAB, but I recognize NIU probably the better defensive team right now.....The line hasn't moved to 3 yet-- it opened at 1, now at 2.

  12. #12
    gojetsgomoxies
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    Quote Originally Posted by ChuckyTheGoat View Post
    Guys, let's address one issue. How can UAB be that good, in just 2nd year of re-start? Would think they're a tad over-rated (but that's just me talking).
    Chucky, that's an extremely good question. i'm more interested in it as a "blue print" for CFB team.......... is it that somehow it was perceived as new and exciting? whereas old team was old and jaded i.e. new mexico state should shut their program for a few years and restart as something exciting

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    gojetsgomoxies
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    i checked the first 5 and rushing differential (yards per carry) did go 4-1 ATS.

    3 games were pretty easy ATS. 1 was small ATS loss (GSo didn't cover vs. EMU, and i thought that game lined up really well). fresno state was big ATS win but tiny rushing differential. so it's a bit of a wash on those 2 games. so 4-1 seems far ATS.

  14. #14
    cmatth1326
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    Paralysis by analysis is never a good thing. Best to keep it simple

  15. #15
    BigdaddyQH
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    UAB line down to -1 1/2 at the Wynn.

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    👍🏼👍🏼

  17. #17
    A Quant
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    So, I spent a lot of time on this UAB-NIU game, and my power #s have UAB as a 4 point fave.

    Both teams have a decent defense--NIU rung up 50 sacks (Top in the country), and UAB finished 4th. FEI has both defenses in the Top 35.

    The difference is on offense.

    NIU's Offense FEI rank is 116th (out of 130).

    NIU really struggles throwing the ball, and I think in order to beat UAB, they would have to be able to do just that. I just don't think NIU can put together enough offense consistently to beat UAB.

    UAB is not exactly Oklahoma either when it comes to throwing the football-- but I think they have a little more balance.

    This one will be low scoring-- but I am just not a totals player, and I like UAB -1.5.

    My play is UAB -1.5 2.2/2

  18. #18
    albinoshark
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    Agree with you here...UAB is motivated to grab their first bowl game in UAB school history. Childler's (QB for N.Ill) is coming off that upset vs Buffalo...he will face a much tougher UAB D as they have only allowed 182 Yards/game through the air vs other much better passing offenses than Northern Ill. UAB also ranked 3rd in the FBS for getting after the QB.

  19. #19
    BigdaddyQH
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    I pretty much agree with the rest of you, but remember that you have teams from two crappy conferences here, so anything goes.

  20. #20
    leetreaper
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    Quote Originally Posted by A Quant View Post
    So, I spent a lot of time on this UAB-NIU game, and my power #s have UAB as a 4 point fave.

    Both teams have a decent defense--NIU rung up 50 sacks (Top in the country), and UAB finished 4th. FEI has both defenses in the Top 35.

    The difference is on offense.

    NIU's Offense FEI rank is 116th (out of 130).

    NIU really struggles throwing the ball, and I think in order to beat UAB, they would have to be able to do just that. I just don't think NIU can put together enough offense consistently to beat UAB.

    UAB is not exactly Oklahoma either when it comes to throwing the football-- but I think they have a little more balance.

    This one will be low scoring-- but I am just not a totals player, and I like UAB -1.5.

    My play is UAB -1.5 2.2/2
    The only thing that concerns me, NIU has played a much harder schedule, other than that UAB on paper looks good.

  21. #21
    Hman
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    Best of luck

  22. #22
    Fred The Hammer
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    Great write-ups! I backed off NI a little bit although I haven't been that impressed with UAB the last 2 weeks. Mid Tenn would've got them in back to back weeks except for a shoestring tackle in the 4Q. I thought NI could really bottle them up, but then they hit a 70 yd TD on the first play.

    I really like Ohio though! SD State can't throw the ball. They got a huge win in Boise, but they also lost to UNLV at home and barely squeaked by San Jose at home as well. Finally....Sagarin for Ohio is 62 and SDS is 85th. The rankings have been golden early on in these bowls.

    I'm about ready to mark down NI as my first loss..lol. Glad I hedged out of some of it

  23. #23
    Fred The Hammer
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    What are your feelings on Buffalo/Troy? I've watched Buff about 4-5 times this year and every game is a shootout so I don't get why the total came down to 50? Now some 49.5's?? What? I think I only saw Troy in 2 games, but they're no 85 Bears on D? They went 7-5 Over while Buff was 9-3 Over. Seems weird. I know the game is in Alabama, but Buff scores and then blitzes/takes chances on D. That usually means Overs wherever its played.

    I'm also thinking about making Cuse my bowl play of the year. Call me Mr Square, but Dungey is such a competitor and I can't see WV beating them with a backup QB. B12 is soft as baby shit on D....year after year.

    Am I wrong on either game?

  24. #24
    A Quant
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    Quote Originally Posted by Fred The Hammer View Post
    What are your feelings on Buffalo/Troy? I've watched Buff about 4-5 times this year and every game is a shootout so I don't get why the total came down to 50? Now some 49.5's?? What? I think I only saw Troy in 2 games, but they're no 85 Bears on D? They went 7-5 Over while Buff was 9-3 Over. Seems weird. I know the game is in Alabama, but Buff scores and then blitzes/takes chances on D. That usually means Overs wherever its played.

    I'm also thinking about making Cuse my bowl play of the year. Call me Mr Square, but Dungey is such a competitor and I can't see WV beating them with a backup QB. B12 is soft as baby shit on D....year after year.

    Am I wrong on either game?
    That Buffalo-Troy game, I love me some Buffalo. Buffalo's 2 regular season losses were to teams that had difficult offenses to prepare for--- Army's triple option game, and Ohio U's offense--- both of those are gimmicky and tough to prep for---what I love most about Buffalo is their balance-- they can throw it down the field, they can run it-- Tyree Jackson is a monster at QB-- what is he, like 6'7? He is a little wild with it, but he can sling it, and for a guy that big, he can move. He was the MAC's OPOY. They should have won the MAC--- and they beat a pretty decent Temple team, they also beat up on Toledo. I go back to their 2 beats downs-- Army and Ohio, and then I look at Troy.

    Troy has broken the 200 yard rush total once in their last something like 8 games, Troy beat Nebraska in Lincoln, but lost to Liberty.

    I will break it down more, but right now, Buffalo is my play.

  25. #25
    Fred The Hammer
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    Personally I don't trust Buffalo....esp playing Troy in Alabama. They blew a huge lead to NI and Miami OH scored at will on them. I was on the Over on that track meet. I do think they'll win but I really expect something like 31-27.

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    A Quant
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    Quote Originally Posted by Fred The Hammer View Post
    Personally I don't trust Buffalo....esp playing Troy in Alabama. They blew a huge lead to NI and Miami OH scored at will on them. I was on the Over on that track meet. I do think they'll win but I really expect something like 31-27.
    I can't argue with any of that-- and you're right, while Buffalo beat Miami, Oh 51-42-- Miami did score on them.

    I just think Buffalo is more consistent than Troy. I looked at that Troy-Texas State game, and Troy threw for 79 yards in that game, and just 160 against App State---

    I think Buffalo is a pretty safe bet in this spot... but hey, I am wrong a lot so, who the hell knows?

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    survive
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    Like buffalo as well. Their pass protection has been great and it matches up to Troy’s great pass rush. Both defenses can be had against the pass, but Troy doesn’t stack up to buffalo’s pass game. Have to give the edge to buffalo in motivation here I think, coming off a devastating loss while Troy isn’t leaving the state for this game
    Edit: my biggest concern would be special teams, Buffalo is a bottom 15 unit while Troy is nearly top 10
    Last edited by survive; 12-19-18 at 09:21 AM.

  28. #28
    A Quant
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    Not bragging, or looking for attention.

    Just posting my record.

    Now at 5-1, +11.7 units.

    I'll revert back toward the mean, but as of right now, I am going hard at this hot streak.

  29. #29
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    DXL Frisco Bowl. Ohio University (-2.5) v. San Diego State

    Looking back at Week 1-- I had San Diego State (+14)---- and it was 7-2 San Diego State with about 1 minute and 40 seconds left in the first half--- It was 3rd and 5, Stanford on SD State's 40 yard line-- KJ Costello drops back, and throws a pick to SDST's Noble Hall--- and Hall returns it about 10 yards, and f'ing fumbles!!!! Stanford recovers at their own 46 and a minute left. Sure enough--- KJ Costello hits Arcega-Whiteside for a 40 yard td with 25 seconds left in the half, and SD State never recovers.

    Seems like that summed up SD State's season---

    Now this game. What do we know? No one ran on San Diego State's front. Not Stanford, Not Boise, Not Nevada-- No one ran the ball on them. They limit teams to 2.75 yards per rush. Here comes Ohio--- playing insanely good on offense, in fact Ohio topped 50 4 times this year--- and scored 49+ in 5 of their last 6. Ohio does run it well--- 262/game, but Nathan Rourke-- can also throw it-- he has a completion percentage north of 60%, he has thrown for 22 tds, and run for another 21. It is that balance that I think will carry Ohio-- Balance wins----

    On the other side-- San Diego State simply does not move the ball very well.

    San Diego State lost 4 of their last 5 to close out the season--- and pouring over their numbers, the reason is obvious-- they failed to convert on third down. I love to look at what a team has on down and distance-- and in San Diego State's 4 losses to close out the year, their average 3rd down was "3rd and 8"-- and they converted the second lowest percentage of third downs in 1-A football for that down and distance.

    Ohio is very good at stopping the run......If they put San Diego State in a down/distance that makes SD State convert more than 6-7 yards-- I think they will control the game.

    There are a ton of other metrics----Ohio's U offensive FEI is incredible.....in fact, they will be the best offense San Diego State has faced all year by a factor of 3. In San Diego's State's 4 losses---Nevada, UNLV, Fresno State, Hawaii-- not one of those 4 teams is ranked offensively (FEI) in the Top 30-- and here comes Ohio ranked 6th.

    Flipping this-- San Diego State's offense (FEI) is ranked 112th---and that ranking comes on a schedule with some really shitty defensive teams---San Diego State was a lot closer to now qualifying for a bowl than most imagine too-- they beat EMU in OT 23-20, they beat AF by 4, San Jose State by 3, and New Mexico by 8.

    I don't like trying to use emotion in a game-- but I just don't see SD State being motivated here----

    My picks is Ohio -2.5.

    I am laying 4.4/4


    Good luck guys.

  30. #30
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    Like it,gl buddy

  31. #31
    BigdaddyQH
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    The favorites just keep truckin'. Ohio has won 5 out of their last 6 games and San Diego State just could not win the close games, dropping 4 out of their last 5 games. Ohio covered 7 games this season, while San Diego State covered just 3. San Diego State simply has not been motivated this season. About the only thing I can see in the plus for State is the fact that they are a MWC team. If Utah State and Fresno State are any indication, the MWC is easily the best of the group of 5 Conferences.

  32. #32
    Fred The Hammer
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    Quote Originally Posted by A Quant View Post
    Not bragging, or looking for attention.

    Just posting my record.

    Now at 5-1, +11.7 units.

    I'll revert back toward the mean, but as of right now, I am going hard at this hot streak.
    Knocking it out brother! Good Job!! I managed to lose twice on the same game last night, but only about -140 as opposed to +375 on Utah State! 2-2 +2 units so far.

    I guess you'll get around to every game but any thoughts on Syracuse/WV and Miss State/Iowa? I'm also considering Texas A&M -6.5 > NC State. You already had SEC vs ACC but then you subtract NC State's top LB with over 100 tackles/6 sacks and top WR with 81 catches and almost 1200 yards!

    Are you a cfb junkie like me that watches all over or do you normally specialize within a certain region?

  33. #33
    Fred The Hammer
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    [QUOTE=BigdaddyQH;28256878]The favorites just keep truckin'. Ohio has won 5 out of their last 6 games and San Diego State just could not win the close games, dropping 4 out of their last 5 games. Ohio covered 7 games this season, while San Diego State covered just 3. San Diego State simply has not been motivated this season. About the only thing I can see in the plus for State is the fact that they are a MWC team. If Utah State and Fresno State are any indication, the MWC is easily the best of the group of 5 Conferences.[/QUOTE]


    I threw $150 on MW Over 3.5 wins (+107). I'm looking pretty good, but I'm on Ohio pretty big tonite. I guess SDS and this prop is a hedge of sorts if the Aztecs won. Personally I like Boise>BC, Hawaii>La Tech, and Nevada>Ark State although 2 of 3 wins the prop.

  34. #34
    albinoshark
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    Agree again here...Ohio Bobcats winning last 5 of 6 games with that blowout (57-17) over Buffalo. Ohio avg 41.2 points/game and has a sub par D. (I don't believe they match up the field here to match their avg vs. SD but should still be able to move quicker and put some points up.) Aztecs lacking a strong offense these days, much weaker than Ohio. Ohio protects their QB better than SD and not to mention the Aztecs have had lots of turnovers this year, more than Ohio. Lines at -2.5 now.

  35. #35
    BigdaddyQH
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    There has been very little action on the Ohio-SDSU game in Vegas. Hardly any line movement at all. A "Throwaway" game for the degenerates is the way one Vegas Sportsbook Manager described it to me. Tomorrow's game between Marshall and USF features a rather big drop in the Total, from 55 to 51 at some shops.The FIU-Toledo game has had a huge drop in the Total, going from 68 down to 59 1/2. Odd thing about that is bettors dumped the total line because of the suspension of the FIU RB, but the line has gone from Toledo -6 1/2 down to -4 1/2. I'm sure I missed something along the way. Hopefully I will find out before Friday.

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