College football conference championship betting primer

Will Harris
ESPN PLUS ($ MATERIAL)


All 10 FBS conferences now have championship games, with the Sun Belt joining the fray this year as the last to adopt the format. Out of those 10 games, only the Big 12 title game does not pit division winners against each other. Six of the 10 games are rematches, and the team that won the earlier meeting is now favored in all but the Oklahoma-Texas matchup.


Four of the 10 games feature double-digit favorites, and the four most competitive spreads are all in Group of 5 leagues. Six games are played at neutral sites, while four are hosted at campus sites. Only one game is a rematch of last year's conference championship game, and only one (besides the new Sun Belt game) features two conference title game debutants.

Each team's rank via AP Poll.
MAC championship game (22nd year)

Ford Field, Detroit
Friday, 7 p.m. ET (ESPN2)


Buffalo Bulls (-3) vs. Northern Illinois Huskies

Total: 49.5
The history: Underdogs are 13-8 and unders are 11-10 in the second-oldest conference championship game. This is the first MAC championship game since the 2014 edition with a spread of less than two touchdowns.


The season: Buffalo is 10-2 with losses to Ohio and Army and is 9-3 against the spread. Northern Illinois is just 7-5 straight up and 6-6 ATS, but the Huskies built plenty of character with a rugged nonconference schedule of Iowa, Utah, Florida State and BYU.


The matchup: The game pits the top two total defenses in the MAC. Buffalo is led by fourth-year coach Lance Leipold, who was 109-6 with six national championships and a runner-up in eight years at the helm of Division III power Wisconsin-Whitewater. Northern Illinois is pedestrian (at best) offensively, but the Huskies have more experience on the MAC's biggest stage. Northern Illinois has won the MAC West seven of the past nine years, closing three of those campaigns with MAC titles.

Pac-12 championship game (eighth year)

Levi's Stadium, Santa Clara, Calif.
Friday, 8 p.m. ET


No. 10 Washington Huskies (-5.5) vs. No. 17 Utah Utes

Total: 43
The history: Favorites are 7-0 straight up but 3-4 ATS. The first three Pac-12 title games were held at campus sites before the game moved to Levi's Stadium. The over is 4-3, and this is the lowest total yet. The North champ took the first six trophies before USC beat Stanford 31-28 last year for the South division's first championship.


The season: Both teams are 9-3, but Washington is just 3-9 against the number this year, with the Apple Cup win representing the Huskies' first cover in seven games. Utah went 7-5 ATS en route to becoming the last Pac-12 South team to claim the division.


The matchup: Washington downed Utah 21-7 in Salt Lake back in September. Neither team threw for more than 155 yards, with the difference being the Utes' 3-1 turnover deficit and 0-for-3 marks on fourth down. The Utes have lost their top quarterback and running back since then, but the replacements have shined. Washington has an extra day of prep for this one, mitigated somewhat by the late travel. The Huskies had a late flight back from snowy Pullman after last Friday night's win, while Utah held off BYU at home late Saturday night.


Big 12 championship game (14th year)

AT&T Stadium, Arlington, Texas
Saturday, 12 p.m. ET (ABC)


No. 5 Oklahoma Sooners (-7.5) vs. No. 9 Texas Longhorns

Total: 78
The history: The game was played between division winners from 1996 to 2010, with Oklahoma winning seven championships in eight title game appearances in that span. Last year marked the resumption of a championship game in the new division-less Big 12 format, and Oklahoma won again, downing TCU for the second time that season. The Sooners also took home the 2015 and 2016 Big 12 crowns without a championship game, and will thus be gunning for a fourth straight crown this week. Favorites and unders are both 9-7 ATS overall.


The season: Texas dropped games to Maryland, West Virginia and Oklahoma State to finish 9-3 and 5-7 ATS, but it did hand the Sooners their only loss of the year. Oklahoma has a losing spread record as well, with a push at West Virginia last week wrapping up a 4-7-1 ATS campaign, but the Sooners have been golden to the over, cashing all but the Army game on that bet despite facing an average number of nearly 80 over the past month.


The matchup: Texas is the more physical team, but that edge might be better suited to the Cotton Bowl venue of the first meeting. The rematch on the fast surface of the Jerry Dome might allow the Sooners' speed to shine. Oklahoma fired defensive coordinator Mike Stoops after losing to Texas 48-45 in Week 6, but the Sooners are still allowing more than 47 points per game in November. The first meeting was a quarterback duel, with 300-yard passing days along with 70-plus on the ground from both Kyler Murray and Sam Ehlinger -- and each team had more than 200 yards from its star receiving duo.

Sun Belt championship game (first year)

Kidd Brewer Stadium, Boone, N.C.
Saturday, 12 p.m. ET (ESPN)


Louisiana Ragin' Cajuns at Appalachian State Mountaineers (-17.5)

Total: 59
The history: The Sun Belt shed Idaho and New Mexico State while adding Coastal Carolina last season, trimming an 11-team league into two five-team divisions split along East-West geographic lines. The league was the last of the 10 FBS conferences to institute a championship game.


The season: Appalachian State started the season with an overtime loss at Penn State and finished it with a division-clinching win over fellow Sun Belt power Troy. App State was 9-2 straight up and 8-3 ATS. The Mountaineers are gunning for a third straight league crown, having shared the title the past two years with teams not on their schedule. Louisiana-Lafayette locked up the West division in coach Billy Napier's first season with a win at rival Louisiana-Monroe on Saturday. The Cajuns finished 7-5 straight up and 8-4 against the number.


The matchup: The Mountaineers have won all five meetings between these two teams since joining the Sun Belt, including a 63-14 beatdown last season and a 27-17 win as 24-point chalk back on Oct. 20 of this year. Both of those games were also played in Boone. These are both run-first offenses, ranking second and third in the Sun Belt in most rushing metrics, behind only Georgia Southern's option attack. Appalachian State, though, leads the league in rush defense, and has allowed just 11 rushing touchdowns to Lafayette's 30.

Conference USA championship game (14th year)

Johnny Floyd Stadium, Murfreesboro, Tenn.
Saturday, 1:30 p.m. ET


UAB Blazers at Middle Tennessee Blue Raiders (-2.5)

Total: 72
The history: Favorites and unders are 7-6 ATS, with nine of the 13 games decided by double digits. This is the first division championship and title game appearance for both teams. This is the fourth straight C-USA title game with a total of 72 or higher.


The season: UAB was 8-1 straight up and ATS entering week 11, but finished at 9-3 and 8-4 ATS. The November skid included last week's 27-3 loss at MTSU, a result that secured home field advantage in the championship game for the Raiders and wrapped up an 8-4 mark both SU and ATS for Middle Tennessee -- including five straight covers coming into this game.


The matchup: Saturday's game saw MTSU hang nearly 400 yards on Conference USA's best defense, a unit that had been allowing just 277 yards per game. The Raiders also played their best game of the season defensively, and with the win they got the rematch moved out of Legion Field, where the Blazers are 12-0 straight up and 11-1 ATS since resuming football last year.


American Athletic Conference championship game (fourth year)

Spectrum Stadium, Orlando, Fla.
Saturday, 3:30 p.m. ET (ABC)


Memphis Tigers at No. 7 UCF Knights (-3.5)

Total: 70.5
The history: Favorites and unders are 2-1 ATS, including Central Florida's 62-55 win over Memphis as 6.5-point chalk last year -- a game that was also played on UCF's home field.


The season: UCF has now won 24 straight games after wrapping up an 11-0 regular season that included a weather cancellation. The Knights are 8-3 against the number, just a half-game better than Memphis' mark of 8-4. The Tigers beat Houston last week in a winner-take-all clash for the American's West division, finishing 8-4 with one of those losses being a 31-30 home setback to UCF as a five-point underdog.


The matchup: Central Florida handed Memphis two of its three losses last year, and this will be the Tigers' fourth crack at the Knights in their past 23 games. McKenzie Milton accounted for 1,188 yards of total offense and 11 touchdowns in the first three meetings, but the Knights will turn to redshirt freshman Darriel Mack at quarterback now that Milton has been lost for the year with a severe leg injury.

SEC championship game (27th year)

Mercedes-Benz Stadium, Atlanta
Saturday, 4 p.m. ET


No. 1 Alabama Crimson Tide (-13) vs. No. 4 Georgia Bulldogs

Total: 64.5
The history: Favorites are 13-12-1 against the spread in the sport's oldest conference title game, while those laying double digits are 6-4. The over is 16-11. This year's total of 64.5 is easily the largest to date.


The season: The oddsmakers have had Nick Saban's third perfect regular season pegged pretty well this year as, depending on which number you got, Alabama went anywhere from 9-3 to 6-6 ATS, clocking in at 8-4 versus the closing price at the Westgate. Georgia is just 7-5 ATS overall, but 4-1 versus the number since suffering its only loss of the season at LSU.


The matchup: It's mentor versus disciple, Round 2, in a rematch of last year's College Football Playoff National Championship. These two teams are intimately familiar, with few secrets in a matchup that might see each team's principal weaknesses mitigated. Alabama doesn't run the ball as successfully as last year's edition, but Georgia doesn't defend the run as well as it did last time around. Both teams have major deficiencies on special teams that weren't an issue last year, with Bama's kicking game a mess and a lack of experienced depth hurting Georgia's coverage teams.

Mountain West championship game (sixth year)

Albertson's Stadium, Boise, Idaho
Saturday, 7:45 p.m. ET (ESPN)


No. 25 Fresno State Bulldogs at No. 19 Boise State Broncos (-2.5)

Total: 50
The history: Underdogs and unders are 4-1 ATS, but there has yet to be an outright upset. It's the third time this pair has met in the title clash, with Boise winning both of those games.


The season: The series history includes Boise State's 17-14 conference championship game victory last year -- itself a rematch that immediately followed Fresno State's home win over the Broncos the week prior to the title game -- and this year the Mountain West title game follows a Week 11 meeting that saw a 24-17 Boise win on the blue turf. Both teams finished 10-2 and 8-4 ATS.


The matchup: The game should feature tenacious defense on both sides and excellent quarterback play from seasoned Broncos passer Brett Rypien and Bulldogs dual threat Marcus McMaryion. The home team has won the past seven meetings.


ACC championship game (13th year)

BkofAma Stadium, Charlotte, N.C.
Saturday, 8 p.m. ET (ABC)


No. 2 Clemson Tigers (-26.5) vs. Pittsburgh Panthers

Total: 45.5
The history: Favorites and overs are both 7-6 ATS. Clemson has won the past three titles, all as favorites, covering in two of those games. The Atlantic division has won the past seven title games.


The season: Clemson finished Dabo Swinney's second unblemished regular season with a 6-6 mark versus the spread. Pitt went 7-5 both straight up and ATS, earning its first Coastal championship.


The matchup: Pitt handed the Tigers their only loss of 2016 in what was the only meeting between these two teams, apart from the Panthers' win in the 1977 Gator Bowl. Clemson just allowed 35 points and 600 yards to South Carolina in a performance that defensive coordinator Brent Venables called embarrassing, but the Panthers seem ill-equipped for another shootout and will probably have to rely on defense and special teams to stay competitive. The Tigers' defense has only shown it can be beaten through the air, and Pitt is a committed rushing team.

Big Ten championship game (eighth year)

Lucas Oil Stadium, Indianapolis
Saturday, 8 p.m. ET


No. 6 Ohio State Buckeyes (-14.5) vs. No. 21 Northwestern Wildcats

Total: 59.5
The history: Underdogs are 5-1-1 ATS (with four outright wins), while overs are 5-2 in the history of this title game. The first three games were played between the winners of the Legends and Leaders divisions, and the past four between the winners of East and West. It's Northwestern's first trip and Ohio State's fourth, and a Buckeyes win would make it six straight titles for current Big Ten East teams.


The season: Northwestern went 8-1 in Big Ten play, with the only loss requiring an impressive Michigan comeback. The Wildcats were 8-4 overall thanks to nonconference losses to Duke, Akron and Notre Dame, and a 6-6 ATS mark. Ohio State was in peril several times this year, but only lost once (at Purdue) and closed out a 5-7 ATS campaign with an epic beatdown of rival Michigan -- Urban Meyer's seventh outright win in seven turns as an underdog at Ohio State.


The matchup: The teams last met two years ago, with Ohio State scratching out a 24-20 win as 25-point chalk. Northwestern quarterback Clayton Thorson and Ohio State running back Mike Weber were the offensive stars for their teams. The Cats were able to hold Buckeyes quarterback J.T. Barrett to 223 yards passing in that game, but figure to have a tougher time defending ace passer Dwayne Haskins and a Buckeyes offense that's racked up 114 points and 1,255 yards the past two games. Ohio State's inconsistency has been its enemy, as the Buckeyes have had a loss or one-point win in each month this year and haven't covered in consecutive games since the first two weeks of the season.