CFB early betting look for Week 11: Missouri's surge, Mississippi State's tall task at Alabama

Will Harris
ESPN PLUS ($ MATERIAL)


College football lookahead is the essential grab bag of numbers, trends, reads and concepts each Monday throughout the season. Join us inside this week to find out which previously red-hot Pac-12 offense just went ice cold, and which inconsistent SEC attack is poised to soar the rest of November. We'll also check in on the Mississippi State-Alabama matchup, give you a shortcut to spotting good under plays and unmask a Western power about to deliver a forgettable November.


Portfolio Checkup

Which teams we're buying and selling, and why.


Buy: Missouri Tigers
All this team needed was a little confidence, and now it's found just that with a 38-17 win at Florida. Drew Lock is playing his best ball and the offense is peaking with the return of top wideout Emanuel Hall, as well as the involvement of so many ancillary playmakers at both running back and receiver. The schedule to date is full of good wins and reasonable losses, but Missouri will be favored in every game the rest of the way. That's how we like it, as Barry Odom is a cool 8-1 ATS when the oddsmakers say he has the best team by double digits, with the only such loss a 72-43 win over Missouri State as five-touchdown chalk in the 2017 season opener.
Sell: Utah Utes
Our preseason pick to win the Pac-12 South looked every bit the part in October. Utah had regrouped after a pair of tough losses and ignited their long-sputtering passing game. It was the missing link that finally gave the Utes championship-caliber play in all three phases, but it all came crashing down Saturday in the desert. Utah quarterback Tyler Huntley, whose improved play was the primary factor in the leap the offense had made, left the loss to Arizona State in the third quarter with a broken collarbone -- a season-ending injury. Arizona State then blew open a tight game, and the deflating loss knocked the Utes out of the driver's seat in the division, which is now a four-way muddle with only the Sun Devils in command of the race.


This is still a strong team with outstanding coaching. Redshirt freshman Jason Shelley is the only option at quarterback before the Utes have to turn to position players, but he's a dangerous open-field runner with a good understanding of the offense. Still, it was the passing game that put the Utes on track to finally claim a division crown. Huntley had improved as a passer and his rapport with his receivers had ripened. We don't expect the Utes to just fold the tent, but the loss was as deflating as it gets and this team will be laying points the rest of the way with an offense that's back to being one-dimensional.
Sell: San Diego State Aztecs
Like Utah, San Diego State is a team that rarely makes the sell list because of an elite coaching staff and program culture. This year's Aztecs look more or less like the past three editions on the scoreboard, but they are not as strong. This team is getting some players back in November, but still doesn't have quite the usual level of hosses in the trenches, or the team-wide experience and leadership of its recent predecessors. Consequently, the A-game isn't quite as good, and it appears less frequently. Two of Rocky Long's last three teams won Mountain West championships and all posted double digit win totals, but we're betting this team won't match either feat despite a 7-2 start and command of the conference race.
Slate standout

A game we'll be studying closely this week, and what we're looking for.

Mississippi State Bulldogs at Alabama Crimson Tide(-26)
Since Nick Saban arrived at Alabama in 2007, the LSU series has been as emotionally charged as the Iron Bowl, and Mississippi State has enjoyed the plum spot on the Tide's schedule, sandwiched between the two big games. The power of the letdown spot barked right out of the gate, as Mississippi State took down the Tide outright in the game following Saban's first meeting with LSU back in 2007. Since then, the Crimson Tide boss has done a good job preparing his team for the Bulldogs, with a 6-4 ATS record that includes one failure by a half point and another to a top-ranked State team in 2014 that obviously didn't fit the usual narrative of a potentially overlooked underdog.


Alabama covered handily against LSU despite a game effort from Tigers, a typically weak showing by their special teams and an atypically weak performance by the vaunted Alabama offense. The reason they were still successful was a defense that put the rest of its schedule on notice that it is done rebuilding. Saban warned in the offseason that this defense was not as strong, and that the Tide would "have to outscore some people." He was spot on as an inexperienced unit had some uncharacteristically rough moments in several games and still hasn't cracked the top ten nationally in total defense even after shutting out LSU.


Opponents still had hope, because as good as the Tide's offense has been, two sides of the ball remained vulnerable. That door is now closed. While the special teams may continue to stink, the leap in improvement over the open date and confidence gained in Tiger Stadium means that the Tide now has a championship defense to go with the best offense in school history.


Mississippi State presents an interesting matchup because just as Alabama's defense is hitting its stride, so is the Bulldogs offense. Stuck in one dimension in early October with quarterback Nick Fitzgerald struggling and no playmakers at receiver stepping up to help, this attack has corrected those issues and has been impressive through the air the past two weeks against respectable defenses.


That improvement might give State a chance to get under this big number, but not without help from Alabama, now that the Crimson Tide defense has finally matured. We'll be watching for any sign this week that Bama is too banged up, mentally fatigued, unfocused or otherwise apt to show up Saturday with its C-game, because that's what it will take to pass on laying anything under four scores to a red-hot yet outclassed State team.
Handicapper's toolbox

A different concept every Monday, and how to apply it on Saturday.


Teams that successfully control the ball but can't score make good under candidates.


The winning equation is high time of possession and low scoring output. Unders are made by teams who drive to midfield and punt. The best under teams operate at a slow pace, don't make explosive plays and often fail to finish drives. Good defense and bad weather are a bonus, but those tend to attract the oddsmakers' attention and mediocre defenses make unders often enough if the offenses are sufficiently pedestrian. Charlotte (third nationally in TOP and 121st in scoring offense) fits the profile the best, and last week the 49ers lost a 14-3 bout at Tennessee (41st and 102nd in those categories, respectively).


One candidate this week is Rice (14th,123rd ) at Louisiana Tech (45th, 97th). Next week, consider Georgia Southern (18th, 56th) at Coastal Carolina (8th, 69th) or Air Force (11th, 64th) at Wyoming (49th, 126th).