[Hman]

CFB betting look for Week 10: Could be time to ride the Green Wave

Will Harris
ESPN PLUS ($ MATERIAL)


College football lookahead is the essential grab bag of numbers, trends, reads and concepts each Monday throughout the season. Join us inside this week as we explain why we're buying a pair of Group of 5 teams, examine some ugly ATS trends for Clemson, Northwestern, UTEP and Florida State, and break down a Pac-12 matchup of two teams that seem headed in opposite directions.


Portfolio checkup

Which teams we're buying and selling, and why.
Buy: Tulane Green Wave


Tulane was 4-8 in Willie Fritz's first season, then 5-7 last year, narrowly missing a bowl berth due to a three-point loss to close out the season at SMU. The Green Wave run a gun option offense that Fritz and coordinator Doug Ruse brought from Georgia Southern, and it's lagged behind a decent defense so far in Fritz's tenure. The culprit has been mediocre quarterback play, and after incumbent starter Jonathan Bankslost two fumbles late in a loss to SMU, Fritz announced he was turning to LSU transfer Justin McMillan, who started for the first time Saturday in the Wave's 24-17 win at Tulsa.


McMillan didn't turn it over and ran for nearly 10 yards per carry, and the offensive line had its best game of the year. The switch to McMillan and the emergence of running back Corey Dauphine give this team a potent one-two punch and a chance to roll up 300 yards rushing in every game the rest of the year. At 3-5, Tulane will need to hold serve against East Carolina and Navy at home and beat either USF or Houston on the road to make the postseason. This is a salty lot with good chemistry, and even if they don't make it, the Green Wave will go down swinging in November and make you feel good about backing them.



Buy: Toledo Rockets
In the seven years of the Matt Campbell-Jason Candle era, this is the first time the Rockets (4-4, 2-2) have found themselves with as many as four losses after eight games, or as many as two conference losses after four MAC games. Only once in that span has Toledo (3-5 ATS) had a losing record against the spread at this point in the season. It's been a bit of a down year due to a variety of factors on both sides of the ball, but Toledo turned its season's best week of preparation into a big road win at Western Michigan last week.


Now the Rockets will gear up to play a third game in 11 days, as will Wednesday night's opponent, Ball State -- and they'll take some confidence and momentum into the matchup. Quarterback Mitchell Guadagni has been in and out of the lineup with injuries (and there's no early line on this week's matchup due to his questionable status), but backup Eli Peters shined in relief last week and has the team's confidence if he has to start against the Cardinals. Whoever starts will have the backing of a run game that's cracked 225 yards in three of the past four games after hitting that number just once in the first four.


A Toledo defense that hadn't been playing up to standard early in the year notched five sacks in each of the past two games, and that unit is starting to heat up. Only MAC powers Northern Illinois and Ohio have hung a regular-season loss on the Rockets in the second half of the season over the past five years, and the 2018 schedule sets up nicely for another November run.


Slate standout

A game we'll be studying closely this week, and what we're looking for.

Colorado Buffaloes at Arizona Wildcats (-4)
The Arizona defense had its best game tackling, the backs and receivers continued to make plays and quarterback Khalil Tate returned to the starting lineup -- finally looking a bit more like his old mobile self. The result was a 44-15 beatdown of Oregon, but as Kevin Sumlin said postgame, "Can we follow that up?" We'll be tracking the events of this week closely to see if this team is mature enough to build on this and win consecutive FBS games for the first time since Tate led the Cats to four straight wins after being installed as the starter in Week 5 last year. The Wildcats are at 4-5 with tough games against Washington State and Arizona State remaining, and we'll also be watching to see whether the players can avoid peeking ahead to next week's long-awaited open date and seem to understand that winning the last game in which Arizona will be favored is a must for bowl hopes. Arizona suddenly has some mojo, but can the Cats handle all the pats on the back they'll get around campus this week?


Colorado had blown just one four-touchdown lead in the history of the program prior to Saturday, and that loss got head coach Dan Hawkins fired before the next game in 2010. Now the local media are proclaiming that Mike MacIntyre on the hot seat and openly wondering whether the school can afford to buy out his contract. This was MacIntyre's 20th game at Colorado when the team was favored by more than a touchdown and the first one he lost. All this is startling new territory for an outfit that's spent the past couple years crossing its fingers and hoping MacIntyre didn't leave for a more prominent job, and before this week still considered itself a league title contender. Will the Buffs be in the tank after blowing a 31-3 second-half lead to lowly Oregon State, or will they show up mad after letting one get away? And will they have to do it again without Laviska Shenault, who was the nation's leading receiver when he was injured at Southern Cal three weeks ago?


One team is surging and the other is reeling, but a lot can change in a week's time -- especially when teams are faced with unprecedented circumstances. That's why it's a good idea to study every practice, every interview, every tweet and every other possible clue, and a bad idea to make plays on Mondays.

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Handicapper's toolbox

Handicapper's toolbox will provide a different concept every Monday, along with how to apply it on Saturday.


Beware the one-man show.


There's a coaching adage that says that there's six players on the field besides the offensive line, and the offensive coordinator's job is to make them all dangerous. Some teams do that better than others, and one that's struggling currently is Penn State. At this point in the season, new playmakers are unlikely to emerge, and most offenses are stuck with what they have until bowl practices provide an extended opportunity for rest and development.


Running back Miles Sanders and top wideout KJ Hamler have been reasonably productive, but sparks from other playmakers have been scarce -- and this offense doesn't have enough threats beyond Trace McSorley right now. James Franklin called McSorley the best player in America after he returned from a second-quarter injury to lead his team past Iowa in the second half Saturday, and while he's played like an All-American, he's also been carrying this offense and will need more help if Penn State is to finish strong in November.


The coaches will need to find something this week, because McSorley is ailing and it will take more than one credible offensive threat to put points on Michigan's defense. Three more do-it-all quarterbacks also bearing too much responsibility for their teams' offensive production are Bryce Perkins of Virginia, Nick Fitzgerald of Mississippi State and David Pindell of Connecticut. Each has a "points responsible for" total that's more than half of his team's scoring output.

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Chalk bits

• UAB's shutout of UTEP means the latter has now gone 22 straight games without scoring more than 24 points. The winless Miners are a one-point road favorite this week at Rice, and not surprisingly, they haven't exactly thrived in that role. Excluding games against the New Mexico schools, UTEP hasn't covered as road chalk since 2005. The Miners have dropped their past 11 games ATS in that role, losing 10 of them straight up. The last two meetings with Rice have also seen lines close to pick 'em, but the Owls have won by 17 and 20 points, holding UTEP to 461 combined yards. Rice has won and covered six of the past seven meetings.
  
  
  
• Clemson has beaten three different Coastal teams to win three straight ACC titles and may be the obvious class of the league, but the Tigers haven't fared so well giving conference foes big numbers. Dabo Swinney's club has covered just one of its past 11 turns laying 20 points or more in conference play, and the Tigers are laying Louisville a whopping 38 points this week.
  
  
  
• Although North Carolina State hasn't been favored until now, the Wolf Pack have owned the series with Florida State, logging 15 covers and seven outright upsets in the 17 meetings since Bobby Bowden led the Seminoles to his last national title game appearance in 2000.
  
  
  
• The majority of betting trends and angles have little basis other than variance, but credit them more when they involve programs that have enjoyed the kind of consistency and stability that Northwestern has under Pat Fitzgerald. Fitz has won and covered plenty of games as an underdog, but one spot that's been unkind is that of home underdog of more than a touchdown. Northwestern's near miss versus Michigan a few weeks back was just his fourth cover in 13 attempts in that role.
  
  
  
  
• After eight weeks, The Pirate and his Washington State squad stand alone, as the Cougars are the lone FBS team to have covered the spread in all of their games this season. UAB, Fresno State, Georgia Southern, Utah State and Virginia have just one ATS loss, while Louisville and Florida Atlantic are the only teams with just one cover on their 2018 résumé.

[BigdaddyQH]

James Franklin is one of the biggest arseholes coaching in college football today. He thinks all of his players are the best, even though none of them have ever played in a Playoff game. He thinks he is the best HC around. If they lose to Michigan, his "great" team will have 3 losses and still will have to play a pissed off Wisconsin team next wee.

Colorado has completely run off the tracks. This team was 5-0 and playing for a Playoff spot until they ran into USC, who defeated them 30-21 in a game that was not that close. Since then they were not very good in a 27-13 loss to Washigton and last weeks huge chock job at HOME against Oregon State. Now there is serious talk of them not winning another game. If they do win a game, it will have to be on the road because their last two home games are against Washington State and Utah, two teams with a lot to play for. That leaves this week against Arizona, and the last game of the season at Cal.

Washington State did NOT cover against San Jose State. Check your facts out. They were 31 1/2 point chalk against San Jose State and won 31-0. Loser.