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Early CFB betting look for Week 8
Early CFB betting look for Week 8: Buy BYU
Will Harris
ESPN PLUS ($ MATERIAL)
College football lookahead is the essential grab bag of numbers, trends, reads and concepts each Monday throughout the season.
Join us inside as we buy a team sparked by a new face under center, talk breakout seasons for two programs that have been patiently building, remind you that Florida State is still not worth backing and explain how Purdue can knock off Ohio State.
Portfolio Checkup
Which teams we're buying and selling, and why.
Buy: BYU Cougars
Last week we wrote about the dramatic impact that a midseason quarterback change or emerging playmaker can have on an offense. The Cougars may have such a difference-maker on their hands in freshman quarterback Zach Wilson, who showed promise after entering each of BYU's past two losses and then really taking off Saturday in his first start -- a 49-23 romp over Hawaii. Wilson, who is a much more dynamic athlete, has been pushing incumbent Tanner Mangum for a while now -- but it was hard for the team to move on from Mangum after he engineered the upset of Wisconsin.
The 25-year old Mangum is an respected leader who puts the team first, so don't expect behind-the-scenes backlash over a move that's been overdue on the field. BYU has been playing good defense all year, and now that the offense has a playmaking spark to go with its power running identity, this team could be pretty tough to beat down the stretch.
Sell: Florida State Seminoles
Remember three weeks ago when the Noles were the laughingstock of college football? They're 3-3 now and coming off an open date, but there are problems with the offensive line and general team chemistry that require an offseason, not an off week. A pair of wins over lesser teams and a narrow loss to Miami have this team's flaws off the front page, but this is still very much a rebuilding year. The schedule stiffens down the stretch, and we don't see the three more wins needed to preserve the program's 36-year bowl streak.
Slate standout
A game we'll be studying closely this week, and what we're looking for.
Ohio State Buckeyes (-13.5) at Purdue Boilermakers
We've been telling you all year that Michigan, not Ohio State, is the Big Ten favorite. While we see more folks coming around to that point of view, we'll keep writing about Billy Price until we see someone else doing it. It's the departed Rimington Trophy winner -- not Zach Smith, Urban Meyer, Greg Schiano, Dwayne Haskins, Nick Bosa or anyone else -- who is the most fitting symbol of what will ultimately be a disappointing 2018 in Columbus.
Urban Meyer's program is built on the idea that the offensive line must be the heart and soul of the team each year. Nowhere are both the 2018 team's on-field deficiencies or its off-field issues more evident than in this particular unit. Price and battery mate J.T. Barrett were the two biggest pieces of a core group of departed seniors who left a huge leadership void on this team, and the line is the weak link of an offense that's been plain bad in short yardage and in the red zone and is struggling to run the ball in all situations despite excellent backs.
A unit that was dominated at Penn State didn't look any better against Minnesota two weeks later. The Bucks are getting by because they throw and catch so well, but eventually the lack of quality balance will catch up with them, especially given the team's defensive struggles. Maybe Michigan's will be the first defense with the back end to pay off its defensive line's dominance of Ohio State's front, but the Buckeyes are getting pushed around regularly and are at risk to lose any game on the schedule the rest of the way.
Can Purdue capitalize and pull the upset? And is a two-touchdown spot enough to consider the Boilermakers and their 109th-ranked pass defense against Dwayne Haskins and a very explosive aerial attack? With late-blooming star David Blough under center and an elite playcaller in coach Jeff Brohm, Purdue does have the offense to trade scores, which Minnesota and Indiana couldn't quite do despite piling up 400 yards. Ohio State has been giving up lots of big plays, and Purdue freshman wideout Rondale Moore makes plenty of them. The improvement and emergence of D.J. Knox from what had been a marginally productive tailback tandem alongside Markell Jones has really made this offense complete. The Boilers would seem to have a puncher's chance, and Ohio State has had its share of stumbles in West Lafayette over the years.
Sometimes teams that keep winning by double digits despite not playing to their full potential can't maintain their hunger to prepare, and any sign of that issue is what we'll be looking for this week as a youngish Ohio State crew without elite player leadership readies itself for the road for the first time in three weeks. These Buckeyes' A-game is full of holes, and signs of a looming C-game would surely warrant investment in the underdog. A touch under two scores may seem a small price for a power program whose average spot given on the Big Ten road the past two years is more than three touchdowns, but consider this: Ohio State has dropped nine straight regular season games ATS as a favorite of less than 18 points.
Handicapper's toolbox
Handicapper's toolbox will provide a different concept every Monday, along with how to apply it on Saturday.
The reason successful rebuilding jobs often break through in year 3-4 has as much to do with buy-in and belief as it does roster-building.
When new staffs take over struggling programs that have been down a while, they often have to battle a certain pessimism and tolerance for losing. Most players at least try to buy into the new coach's ways and allow themselves to be coached, but at first, the team must be coach-led. Initially, the upperclassmen are cultural rookies just like the freshmen, but after a couple seasons the juniors and seniors are well-indoctrinated veterans of the coaching style, the schemes and everything else that was once new. Then those guys start teaching the younger players, and the team becomes player-led.
Then, real belief follows results. When mere improvement the first couple years turns into a 4-0 start or big non-conference win in Year 3 or 4, the players start believing anything the coaches tell them, and thinking that they really are special. When that kind of intangible growth is accompanied by a team's rebuilt roster finally coming together, that's how breakout seasons, surprise division championships and 10-2 ATS records are born.
We saw that scenario two years ago when Colorado started the season with eight straight covers en route to a surprise Pac-12 South title in Mike McIntyre's fourth season. At the halfway point, the best candidates to be this year's Colorado and keep the train rolling into November might be Virginia and Buffalo. Like McIntyre, both Bronco Mendenhall and Lance Leipold took over losing programs after excellent results at their previous head-coaching stops.
Mendenhall is a defensive guru who was Rocky Long's protege at New Mexico. He then moved on to BYU and never had a losing season in 11 years as their head coach. The Virginia offense is still undermanned, but the head coach's side of the ball is looking sporty in Year 3. Leipold was a quarterback and offensive coordinator before leading Division III powerhouse Wisconsin-Whitewater to a 109-6 record and six national championships. Now, in Year 4 at Buffalo, Leipold's offense fields some of the MAC's most dynamic athletes, and the results are matching the vision.
Virginia and Buffalo are a combined 10-3 ATS, but there might be more gold in the vein. That's because both teams are benefiting from buy-in approaching critical mass, from being truly player-led for the first time in their head coaches' tenures. Each victory further validates the coaches' messages and plans to win, and teams like this often keep rolling until the mainstream media finally takes notice.
Next year this will be about Minnesota, where buy-in and belief are way ahead of schedule for P.J. Fleck in Year 2, but the roster is still too thin.
Chalk bits
- Navy pushed the closing line in a seven-point home loss to Temple, moving Midshipmen coach Ken Niumatalolo to 6-1-1 ATS as a home underdog in his 11 seasons, with all six covers coming as outright wins. Navy is a home dog for the ninth time under Niumatalolo this week as Houston rolls in as double-digit chalk.
- Northwestern and Rutgers are meeting for the first time since the latter joined the Big Ten. The Wildcats have never laid more than 17 points in a Big Ten game under Pat Fitzgerald.
- Washington State has only beaten Oregon three straight times, but the Cougars' backers have beaten the Ducks eight straight. And they've done so without breaking a sweat. In seven of those past eight seasons two more touchdowns wouldn't have given Oregon the cover.
Wazzu is one of three teams with perfect ATS records, along with Appalachian State and Utah State.- No team is winless ATS, but Arkansas State, Louisville, FAU, Navy, Connecticut, Wisconsin, Wake Forest and Wyoming each have just one cover on account so far. Virginia, Texas A&M, Iowa, Georgia Southern, FIU, Florida, Cincinnati and UAB have covered all but one game.
- It took Nick Saban to slow down Drew Lock. Until Alabama held Missouri to 13 first downs and 212 yards in a 39-10 win, every Missouri game this year had gone over the total, and the Tigers had crested their team total each time as well.
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Originally Posted by daneblazer
