Best college football bets for Week 2
- Phil Steele, Chris Fallica and "Stanford Steve" Coughlin
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One week of the college football season is in the books, and our Vegas betting experts are back once again to bring you their best value picks for Week 2. Every Thursday, Phil Steele, Chris Fallica and "Stanford Steve" Coughlin will pick their top plays across the college football landscape.
Here are the best bets for Week 2 of the college football season.
Note: Lines from Westgate Las Vegas SuperBook as of Wednesday night. As always, shop for the best price.
Arkansas State Red Wolves vs. No. 1 Alabama Crimson Tide (-36.5, O/U 66)
3:30 p.m. ET, Saturday
Fallica: This is solely a play on the situation. In their past 13 games (dating to 2011) as a favorite of at least 28 points in nonconference games against FBS opponents, Alabama is 1-10-2 ATS. That lone win, which came against Kent State two years ago, only happened because the Crimson Tide covered after Kent State had a fourth-quarter TD overturned by instant replay. Arkansas State is a good Group of 5 team with QB Justice Hansen, and should be able to score a couple of TDs to get a cover.
Pick: Arkansas State +36.5
Score: Alabama 45, Arkansas State 14
No. 2 Clemson Tigers (-12) vs. Texas A&M Aggies (O/U 54.5)
7 p.m. ET, Saturday
Coughlin: So many questions in this game:
- How will Clemson's defense fare on the road -- will it take the 12th man out of the game?
- How many snaps will coach Dabo Swinney play the freshman QB?
- How does Jimbo Fisher's familiarity with playing against Clemson affect the game?
Swinney and Fisher will be facing off for a ninth consecutive year, and Clemson will be the highest-ranked nonconference opponent to play at Kyle Field. Both teams are 1-0 after punishing FCS opponents in Week 1, and I feel as if the offensive game plans might be scaled back a little, seeing how the coaches might still be learning about their offenses. I just don't see a lot of points being scored, especially by the home team. I'll take the under.
Pick: Under 54.5 points
Score: Clemson 27, Texas A&M 14
No. 17 USC Trojans vs. No. 10 Stanford Cardinal (-5; O/U 56.5)
8:30 p.m. ET, Saturday
Coughlin: Plenty will be made of how this will be a tough test for Trojans freshman QB JT Daniels, as it will be his first road start, but I am here to tell you that it's not a big deal. First off, Stanford has the worst home-field advantage in the Pac-12, and it'll be worse than usual as students aren't on campus for another couple of weeks. When Daniels takes the field Saturday, he'll probably hear cheers.
On the field, I'm just not sure that Stanford will be as fortunate as it was last week. It took advantage of one-on-one coverage in the secondary on JJ Arcega-Whiteside as San Diego State did everything it could to hold down Bryce Love, limiting Love to a career-low 29 yards rushing. On the other side, I think USC has plenty of talent at the skill positions, which should allow the Trojans to move the ball against an average-at-best Stanford defense that gave up over 100 yards rushing in the first half last week. I'll take the points.
Pick: USC +5
Score: Stanford 23, USC 20
No. 15 Michigan State Spartans (-6) vs. Arizona State Sun Devils (O/U 54)
10:45 p.m. ET, Saturday
Steele: The Spartans are just 1-8 ATS as an away favorite over the past four years. Last week I used Utah State (+24) and it nearly upset Michigan State in East Lansing. Last year, the Spartans were fortunate as, despite their 7-2 Big Ten mark, they were only plus-35 yards per game. This game kicks off at 7:45 p.m. PT, making it 10:45 p.m. ET in MSU's home time zone at kickoff; the game will be ending around 2 a.m. ET, which will be unusual for the Spartans.
Arizona State is 5-2 as a home underdog over the past three years, with outright upsets of UCLA, Arizona, No. 24 Oregon, and No. 5 Washington. The Sun Devils have a veteran quarterback in Manny Wilkins, one of the nation's best wide receivers in N'Keal Harry and an explosive running back in Eno Benjamin.
Pick: Arizona State +6
Score: Michigan State 28, Arizona State 27
No. 18 Mississippi State Bulldogs (-9) vs. Kansas State Wildcats (O/U 54)
12 p.m. ET, Saturday
Steele: Joe Moorhead is in only his second game as Mississippi State's head coach and takes on the grandmaster Bill Snyder. Last year, Mississippi State was plus-192 yards per game at home but just plus-20 yards per game on the road. Kansas State is typically among the least experienced teams on a year-to-year basis, as it relies on junior college transfers, but this year Snyder's squad is No. 41 on my experience chart -- and the Wildcats are 20-2 in nonconference home games. Last time KSU hosted an SEC school was 2014, and it narrowly fell 20-14 to No. 5 Auburn. Last week's results give us line value here, and Snyder is an amazing 27-9 as an underdog since 2011 -- with 13 of those games being outright upsets.
Pick: Kansas State +9
Score: Mississippi State 28, Kansas State 27
Liberty Flames vs. Army Knights (-9.5; O/U 58.5)
12 p.m. ET, Saturday
Coughlin: The feeling here is that Liberty will be coming in a little overconfident after winning a huge intrastate game over Old Dominion last week to start the season -- their first victory at the FBS level. There's also plenty to like about Army's offense, aside from the obvious discipline and fortitude. Kelvin Hopkins Jr. threw for 197 yards -- on 10-of-21 passing, no less -- including a 45-yard touchdown pass to Camden Harrison.
It was the most passing yards Army has had in a game since 2015. After leading college football with 362 rushing yards per game last year, the Knights rushed for over 150 yards despite their passing outburst, even though they trailed for most of the game, thanks to turning the ball over a couple of times and getting a field goal attempt blocked. I like this spot for the Cadets. I'll take the favorite.
Pick: Army -9.5
Score: Army 38, Liberty 21
Duke Blue Devils vs. Northwestern Wildcats (-3, O/U 48.5)
12 p.m. ET, Saturday
Fallica: Duke has to be looking at itself as a contender in the ACC Coastal after seeing Miami on Sunday night, along with the fact that the Blue Devils get Virginia Tech at home. You know you're always going to get an extremely well-prepared team with David Cutcliffe on the sidelines, and Northwestern probably will not find it as easy to move the ball on the Blue Devils as it did a young Purdue team last week.
There's big revenge at stake for Northwestern after Duke put it on the Wildcats last year, with Daniel Jones throwing for 305 yards, but Cutcliffe's teams usually play very well as a dog or in games considered tossups. They're 12-5 SU in their last 17 games where the spread is -3.5 to +3.5, and 12-2 ATS (10-4 SU) in their last 14 games as a dog of four points or fewer. I think they are live here too.
Pick: Duke +3
Score: Duke 27, Northwestern 26
Eastern Michigan Eagles vs. Purdue Boilermakers (-17; O/U 54.5)
12 p.m. ET, Saturday
Steele: Last year, Eastern Michigan knocked off Rutgers on the road for its first win against a Big Ten school. The Eagles are an outstanding 11-1 ATS as an away underdog the past 12 times they've been in that position. The Boilermakers are coming off of a Thursday night Big Ten opening loss to Northwestern, and have an SEC team in Missouri on deck -- making this your typical sandwich game. Quarterback Elijah Sindelar had three key interceptions last week and was replaced by David Blough for the rest of the game, so the quarterback spot for Purdue is still not settled. Eastern Michigan has a new quarterback in Iowa transfer Tyler Wiegers, and he hit 18-for-21 and 238 yards against Monmouth -- leading the Eagles to a 30-3 advantage at halftime. The situation, angles, and talent all say Eastern Michigan will take this game to the wire.
Pick: Eastern Michigan +17
Score: Purdue 28, Eastern Michigan 24
Tulsa Golden Hurricane vs. Texas Longhorns (-23; O/U 61.5)
8 p.m. ET, Saturday
Coughlin: This is all about the situation. Texas is coming off a loss as a double-digit road favorite, and now the Longhorns are giving more than three touchdowns. I also look at what's next for Texas, as the Longhorns host USC on a big national stage where they can show that the Week 1 loss to Maryland might not have been what they are as a team. We know Tulsa can score, led by head coach Philip Montgomery's offensive system. Even though Tulsa went 2-10 last year, the offense finished ranked 14th nationally in rushing at 247.3 yards per game. It's a sandwich-affect game -- Texas gets out early but pulls the starters, due to the huge game it has next week in hosting a nationally ranked team. I'll take the points.
Pick: Tulsa +23
Score: Texas 45, Tulsa 27
UL Monroe Warhawks vs. Southern Mississippi Golden Eagles (-6, O/U 68)
7 p.m. ET, Saturday
Fallica: ULM was fortunate to escape last week as a huge favorite, and Southern Miss blew out Jackson State. ULM will have to be better in the secondary this week, but I expect the defense to improve enough to keep the Warhawks in the game. As bad as things were defensively last year for ULM, it held USM to 28 points in the most recent meeting despite giving up over 500 yards -- 219 of which came on the ground from now-Atlanta Falcon Ito Smith. And you know Caleb Evans and the offense will get their share of points.
Whether it's good enough to pull the outright upset remains to be seen, but I expect a better all-around performance from ULM this week.
Pick: UL Monroe +6
Score: Southern Miss 37, UL Monroe 35
FIU Panthers (-1) vs. Old Dominion Monarchs (O/U 51.5)
7:30 p.m. ET, Saturday
Steele: I asked some Conference USA coaches to tell me the most underrated home-field advantage in the league, and many pointed out Old Dominion. The Monarchs are 8-1 in home openers with an average margin of victory of 45 points. Last year, ODU traveled to FIU and never trailed in a 37-30 win, with FIU getting a garbage-time touchdown with 20 seconds left.
FIU moves down to No. 107 on my experience chart this season after being No. 5 last year. ODU was 5-0-1 as a home favorite in its bowl year of 2016, and this year's team is just as experienced as that 2016 squad. ODU got off to a disappointing start as it trailed Liberty 14-10 at the half, and the game snowballed in the second half as it ended 52-10. FIU trailed Indiana 35-14 and 38-21 but lost by only 10 as Indiana ended the game on the FIU 1. Last week's results give us great value here, as ODU would have been about a touchdown favorite and is now a home dog. This game is a must-win for ODU, and the Monarchs get it.
Pick: Old Dominion +1
Score: Old Dominion 33, Florida International 26
Air Force Falcons vs. Florida Atlantic Owls (-9.5; O/U 69)
2 p.m. ET, Saturday
Coughlin: I don't think there could be two more different teams in America than Air Force and FAU, who will square off in South Florida. One team wants to run as many plays as possible and one team wants to run as many run plays as possible. Then you factor in what FAU looked like last week, as it was dismantled by Oklahoma in a 63-14 loss.
This just feels like a tough spot to try to work on things to improve on the defensive side of the ball. After a disappointing season last year, the Falcons came out last week and rushed for over 330 yards while needing to complete only two passes. The defense limited Stony Brook's offense to 75 total yards; it was the second-fewest yards ever allowed by an Air Force defense. I know FAU has more talent than Stony Brook, but I think the Falcons have enough to keep it close. I'll take the points.
Pick: Air Force +9.5
Score: FAU 41, Air Force 36
Arizona Wildcats vs. Houston Cougars (-3.5, O/U 71.5)
12 p.m. ET, Saturday
Fallica: I'm not sure how good Arizona is up front, and that could be a problem against Ed Oliver and the Houston front. Maybe Khalil Tate will run the ball more than eight times and complete more than 50 percent of his passes, but the struggles versus what was a bad BYU team last week worries me some. And we know Houston will be up for the challenge of getting a win vs a Power 5 opponent, as the Cougars are 7-1 SU and ATS in their past eight vs Power 5 opponents -- including a win as a favorite last year in Tucson.
Houston struggled with Rice early last week before scoring the game's final 28 points, and I think the team we see this week will be more reflective of that late run.
Pick: Houston -3.5
Score: Houston 38, Arizona 31
Memphis Tigers (-7) vs. Navy Midshipmen (O/U 69)
3:30 p.m. ET, Saturday
Steele: Navy comes in 2-1 straight up and 3-0 ATS in its series against Memphis. Last year, the Midshipmen were coming off an emotional win against rival Air Force and on the road at Memphis. The Midshipmen were minus four in turnovers and lost by three points. Navy is 44-11 at home under head coach Ken Niumatalolo. New Memphis quarterback Brady White did throw for 358 yards and five touchdowns in his debut, but that was against FCS school Mercer.
This game is an essential one for Navy to get, coming off a 59-41 loss at Hawaii and a 7-10 record in its past 17 games. I was torn on which side to use here, but Vegas made it easier for me by installing Memphis as a touchdown favorite. I will side with a Navy team that is 4-1 as a home underdog the past six years.
Pick: Navy +7
Score: Navy 41, Memphis 40
UTEP Miners vs. UNLV Rebels (-23; O/U 55)
9 p.m. ET, Saturday
Coughlin: If you were to rank all of the teams at the FBS level, I would guess that an ample amount of people would have UTEP ranked dead last -- especially after it lost to FCS team Northern Arizona to open the season. But in that game, the Miners scored 10 points. If they can score the same amount this week, I feel as if the over is a sure thing. That's mainly because I really like what I saw from the UNLV offense last week, led by do-it-all QB Armani Rogers, who threw for two TDs and rushed for 82 yards.
The Rebels can run the football, as they went for over 300 yards on the ground vs. USC. With the versatility of Rogers and the Rebels returning to Vegas for their home opener, I think they score over 45 points -- and with a little help from the Miners, I'll take the over.
Pick: Over 55 points
Score: UNLV 55, UTEP 9
Fresno State Bulldogs vs. Minnesota Golden Gophers (-2, O/U 47.5)
7:30 p.m. ET, Saturday
Fallica: Fresno State was a perfect 7-0 last year as an underdog under Jeff Tedford, winning four of those games outright. The Bulldogs looked like a team in the opener (against Idaho, yes) that did not have the telltale signs of a one-hit wonder, forcing seven turnovers as QB Marcus McMaryion continued his solid play. This year's edition of the Gophers looked like an improved bunch, too, but Fresno State will be a step up from a New Mexico State team that hasn't showed much in two games now.
Pick: Fresno State +2
Score: Fresno State 30, Minnesota 28
Kentucky Wildcats vs. Florida Gators (-14, O/U 50)
7:30 p.m. ET, Saturday
Steele: Florida owns the nation's longest series win streak, having won 31 straight over Kentucky. Last year, the Gators trailed 24-14 in the third quarter when quarterback Luke Del Rio left because of an injury. Feleipe Franks came in for Del Rio and led two touchdown drives in the last 7 minutes, 58 seconds. Kentucky missed a potential winning field goal attempt as time expired. Last time in Gainesville, Kentucky trailed 45-0 until a garbage-time touchdown drive with 4:27 left, and the Gators outgained the Wildcats 564-149.
Kentucky is just 2-10 in SEC road openers. Florida returns 19 starters and sits at No. 4 on my experience chart -- and I pegged them as my most improved team in the country entering the season. Kentucky lost their left tackle Landon Young before the season opener and lack much of a veteran presence; the Wildcats are No. 102 on my experience chart. Dan Mullen was 8-1 against Kentucky playing them every year with Mississippi State, and Mark Stoops is 12-20-1 as an SEC underdog.
Pick: Florida -14
Score: Florida 37, Kentucky 17
Kansas Jayhawks vs. Central Michigan Chippewas (-4.5, O/U 52)
3 p.m. ET, Saturday
Fallica: Who loves bad teams? This guy! While the home loss to Nicholls State sounds awful, it's not as bad as the numbers might say. KU faced a team that has given SEC teams Georgia and Texas A&M all it could handle over the past two years. If you look at Sagarin Ratings, Kansas is 127, Central Michigan is 124 and Nicholls State is 138. There's a real good chance Nicholls would have beaten CMU too, had they played last week.
While people might have seen the close score at Kentucky last week, a look inside the numbers shows CMU, which is nearly an entirely new team from last year, had just 255 yards and was the beneficiary of four Kentucky turnovers. That's not to say Kansas won't help them in that department as well, but if that +4 becomes +1 or even a -1, I'm not sure CMU will put a bunch of points on the board.
Pick: Kansas +4.5
Score: Kansas 24, Central Michigan 23
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