1. #1
    Hman
    Hman's Avatar Become A Pro!
    Join Date: 11-04-17
    Posts: 21,429
    Betpoints: 1222

    Best College Football Bets For Week 1

    Best college football bets for Week 1


    • Phil Steele, Chris Fallica and "Stanford Steve" Coughlin
      ESPN PLUS ($ Material)




    It's the opening week of the college football season, so our Vegas betting experts are back for another season of bringing you the best value picks each week. Every Thursday, Phil Steele, Chris Fallica and "Stanford Steve" Coughlin will pick their top plays from some of the week's best matchups.

    Here are the best bets for Week 1 of the college football season.

    Note: Lines from Westgate Las Vegas SuperBook as of Thursday morning.

    Northwestern Wildcats at Purdue Boilermakers (-1)

    8 p.m. ET, Thursday

    Steele: Last year, Northwestern entered this matchup off three straight overtime wins but still led 20-0 late in the first half and won 23-13 as a 4.5-point home favorite. Purdue had a veteran defense and improved from giving up 38.3 points per game to just 20.5 points per game, and that was a huge factor in it getting to 7-6. The last time here, Northwestern rolled 45-17 with 605 yards of offense. This year the Boilermakers lose nine of their top 12 tacklers, which makes them weaker on defense. Northwestern quarterback Clayton Thorson should be back for this game after tearing his ACL a season ago. The Wildcats are No. 25 on my experience chart and have seven starters back on defense including linebacker Paddy Fisher. They went 3-1 in the Big Ten on the road last season, losing only at Wisconsin. I feel the Wildcats are the stronger team and they get the mild upset.

    ATS pick: Northwestern
    Score: Northwestern 27, Purdue 23

    Army Knights at Duke Blue Devils (-13.5)

    7 p.m. ET, FridaySteele: Duke has held Army to 168, 214 and 268 total yards the past three years as Blue Devils head coach David Cutcliffe usually does well against the option. It also has the edge of this game being Week 1 with the benefit of extra practice time working on defending the option. The Blue Devils will be playing with revenge from last year's 21-16 upset loss at West Point in November, and they return 15 starters this season. With just four net close losses last year, the Blue Devils were only four plays away from being 11-2 and are way under the radar this season. Duke's defense keys a solid opening win.

    ATS pick: Duke
    Score: Duke 30, Army 9

    Utah State Aggies at No. 11 Michigan State Spartans (-23.5)

    7 p.m. ET, FridaySteele: The last time Utah State faced a Big Ten team on the road was a season ago when it traveled to Wisconsin. The Aggies led 10-7 before a Badgers field goal on the final play of the first half tied the score. The second half turned ugly, and the Aggies lost 51-13. Utah State got the benefit of bowl practices last season and returns 18 starters this year with only New Mexico State and Tennessee Tech on deck. Last season, Michigan State felt disrespected and played with a chip on its shoulder going 10-3. The Spartans are now No. 11 in the AP poll and have Arizona State on deck. From 2012 to 2016, Mark Dantonio was 12-20 as a home favorite, and last year their six home wins were by 11 points per game. Michigan State is also 0-4 ATS when favored by more than 20 points in the past three seasons. Before 2017's opening game win, Michigan State had been 1-5 ATS in their previous six home openers. Utah State has my No. 5-rated special teams. I see it being a play-on team all season, and I'm taking the large points in this game.

    ATS pick: Utah State
    Score: Michigan State 34, Utah State 20

    Oregon State Beavers at No. 5 Ohio State Buckeyes (-38.5)

    12 p.m. ET, SaturdayFallica: The Beavers lost a Power 5-high six games by at least 28 points, and the last time they took the field they lost by 59 in the Civil War against Oregon. It was a forgettable season in which they were outgained by a Power 5-high 139 yards per game and outscored by 22.3 points per game (second worst in Power 5). They should struggle again on offense until first-year head coach Jonathan Smith can rebuild the roster. I expect the Ohio State offense to be more dynamic than last season, and while 38.5 points seem like a lot, we could be looking at something like 35-0 by halftime as the Buckeyes are so much more talented in every facet. And if that's the case, you'd have to like your chances from there.

    ATS pick: Ohio State
    Score: Ohio State 56, Oregon State 13

    Coastal Carolina Chanticleers at South Carolina Gamecocks (-29.5)

    12 p.m. ET, SaturdayFallica: The game South Carolina has circled on the calendar is next week in Columbia when the defending SEC champions come to town. The Gamecocks won't lose to the Chanticleers, but expect Coastal to play well for head coach Joe Moglia, who is back after a leave of absence in what was the school's transitional year to FBS football -- a year that nearly saw Coastal win at Arkansas as 24.5-point 'dogs. South Carolina has had some closer calls than expected under coach Will Muschamp as 20-point favorites, going 0-3 against the number and winning by six, 13 and 21 points. All three of those games were prior to playing either an SEC opponent or Clemson. South Carolina does what it needs to do for a comfortable win and preps for Georgia next week.

    ATS pick: Coastal Carolina
    Score: South Carolina 38, Coastal Carolina 17

    No. 23 Texas Longhorns (-13.5) at Maryland Terrapins

    12 p.m. ET, SaturdayCoughlin: Last year, I gave the over in this game, which was a winner, but I thought the Longhorns would outscore the Terrapins in that Texas heat, not vice versa. This season, I notice that the Terps return plenty from an offense that scored 51 on the 'Horns in that opener, and I also notice that Texas gets plenty of its offensive production back. Plenty has been made of the Maryland program in recent months and I expect them to come out with a very focused offensive game plan, spearheaded by offensive-coordinator-turned-interim-head-coach Matt Canada. Last year, the Maryland offense churned out 263 yards rushing and the Longhorns scored three non-offensive touchdowns. I expect more of the same. It will go over.

    Pick: Over 53 points
    Score: Texas 34, Maryland 30

    Florida Atlantic Owls at No. 7 Oklahoma Sooners (-21)

    12 p.m. ET, SaturdayCoughlin: This might be my most intriguing game that doesn't involve two ranked teams this weekend, simply because I'm not sure how the Lane Train will run on the tracks of Norman. We all know the success the Sooners' program had last season, as first-year coach Lincoln Riley led the team to a playoff berth and a Heisman Trophy winner. So what should we expect for an encore? It's easy to say replacing Baker Mayfield might be the toughest job in the sport, but it's true because of how much Mayfield brought to the table on and off the field, and how much confidence he gave his teammates on offense and defense. I'm not saying Kyler Murray won't have a successful season, but in the big picture I don't see the Sooners returning to the playoff. With that being said, I do think the Sooners have plenty of offense, especially against an oversized and overmatched Owls defense. But you know Lane Kiffin won't go down quietly. If you like defense, don't turn this game on for one second. Take the over.

    Pick: Over 72 points
    Score: Oklahoma 55, FAU 28

    UMass Minutemen at Boston College Eagles (-18)

    1 p.m. ET, SaturdayCoughlin: I expect plenty of flack for this selection, but I am ready for it. If you have listened to me on the Behind the Bets podcast, I am a huge believer that having a game under your belt is a huge advantage when playing a team that hasn't played one yet. This is one of those circumstances. I know UMass played an overmatched team in Duquesne, but I do believe there is no replacement for game reps, and the Minutemen got those last week. Over the summer, BC was my No. 1 best bet to go over its season win total, and it still is, but I just think the Eagles are giving too many points in this spot. I expect them to win the game, but I'll take UMass to cover the spread.

    ATS pick: UMass
    Score: Boston College 34, UMass 17

    Washington State Cougars (-1) at Wyoming Cowboys

    3:30 p.m. ET, SaturdayFallica: I almost feel like the cat is out of the bag after the Mountain West's best defense did a number on New Mexico State in Las Cruces last week. The number has come down some, but that won't deter me as this seems like a Wyoming win or Washington State by more than a TD. We've seen the Cougars struggle a lot in early season nonconference games, and I think the loss of defensive coordinator Alex Grinch will be significant. Craig Bohl has his best team in Laramie and will show it Saturday.

    ATS pick: Wyoming
    Score: Wyoming 31, Washington State 27

    Tennessee Volunteers vs. No. 17 West Virginia Mountaineers (-9.5)

    3:30 p.m. ET, Saturday, Charlotte, N.C.Fallica: The West Virginia offense should be great. But great enough to overcome a huge question on the defensive side of the ball? Will Grier played most of last season and the Mountaineers were 29th in offensive expected points added (EPA). The Vols bottomed out last year, but with new coach Jeremy Pruitt, I think the Vols' defense will be improved from last year not only because of Pruitt and his defensive background, but also because of the overall changes in the program. If you look at recruiting rankings from 2014 through 2017, which would include any seniors who redshirted as freshmen to those who redshirted or played as true freshmen last year, Tennessee's average class rank is 7.5. West Virginia's is 41.5. I know there's roster attrition and Grier was a transfer, but you could make the case Tennessee has the overall roster with higher talent. Maybe it can't match WVU point for point, but I'll take the points here.

    ATS pick: Tennessee
    Score: West Virginia 31, Tennessee 24

    Northern Illinois Huskies at Iowa Hawkeyes (-10)

    3:30 p.m. ET, SaturdaySteele: Northern Illinois won at Nebraska last season and had a 22-10 first-down edge at San Diego State in nonconference road games last year. NIU is No. 34 on my experience chart and led by quarterback Marcus Childers, with veteran offensive and defensive lines. Rod Carey is an outstanding 10-3 ATS as an away underdog, including upset wins here in 2013 and at Northwestern. Iowa has the talent and schedule to contend in the Big Ten West, but head coach Kirk Ferentz usually gets off to slow starts. Iowa also has pulled some major upsets at Kinnick as a 'dog, but is 12-22-1 as a home favorite the past six years, and it has its rivalry game against Iowa State on deck. Iowa is without two starting offensive linemen due to suspension and takes on an outstanding defensive line led by first-team All-American defensive end Sutton Smith, so expect a conservative offense from Iowa to try and keep quarterback Nate Stanley upright.

    ATS pick: Northern Illinois
    Score: Iowa 27, Northern Illinois 23

    UNLV Rebels at No. 15 USC Trojans (-26.5)

    4 p.m. ET, SaturdayFallica: Freshman quarterback J.T. Daniels is going to be a star, but I wonder if this week is more about getting him comfortable and some game experience ahead of the Pac-12 road showdown at Stanford. Between that and injuries to LB Porter Gustin and others, might we see USC simply do just enough to get by and avoid any further injuries before next week? The Rebels did improve as the year went on in 2017, winning three of their final five games, mostly on the heels of dual-threat QB Armani Rogers, who won MWC Rookie of the Year honors. While I don't expect UNLV to pull the outright upset, this should be closer than the 33-point early season loss the Rebels suffered at Ohio State last season. Under Tony Sanchez, the Rebels have been more than a 21-point 'dog seven times and covered six of those games, including road games at Michigan, UCLA and Ohio State.

    ATS pick: UNLV
    Score: USC 47, UNLV 27
    Steele: UNLV is No. 42 on my experience chart, and USC is only No. 106. USC also has two massive games on deck in road trips to Stanford and then Texas. The Trojans were 1-5 ATS as a home favorite last year, and while UNLV coach Tony Sanchez has yet to produce a six-win season, he has done well going 11-4 ATS as an away underdog. However, USC does have a significant edge on defense as well as special teams. UNLV has the bulk of its skill players back, including Rogers, and USC lost quarterback Sam Darnold, running back Ronald Jones II and wide receiver Deontay Burnett to the NFL. The angles, situation and experience all point to UNLV keeping this game closer than expected.

    ATS pick: UNLV
    Score: USC 34, UNLV 17

    No. 14 Michigan Wolverines at No. 12 Notre Dame Fighting Irish (PK)

    7:30 p.m. ET, SaturdayCoughlin: When this line was released over the summer, the South Point Casino opened the Irish as a 7-point favorite. As you see above, the line has moved and plenty of money has been wagered on the Wolverines. When I look at this game, I just see everyone talking about the Michigan defense and how dominant it is. But you have to think Notre Dame likes its chances with the talent it has on the defensive side of the ball, in addition to a mobile QB in Brandon Wimbush, who should be able to make plays with his feet. I also expect Wimbush to come in plenty motivated after seeing how he ended last season, not playing to his potential in some big spots. Irish win.

    ATS pick: Notre Dame
    Score: Notre Dame 23, Michigan 20

    No. 1 Alabama Crimson Tide (-24.5) vs. Louisville Cardinals

    8 p.m. ET, Saturday, Orlando, FloridaCoughlin: All summer I said I was going to take the Cardinals in this matchup, mostly due to the belief that Bobby Petrino could draw up some offense to score 20 points against a Nick Saban defense that has to replace its top six defensive backs (Petrino returns his top three wide receivers). But, I did allow myself to listen to people who know more about the game than me and have seen Alabama in spring ball and training camp, and they are drooling over the talent that the Tide have on offense. You watch that national title game and see the fearlessness Tua Tagovailoa shows whether he is throwing the ball or running it. You accompany that with the returning talent on the offensive line and the assets either Jalen Hurts or Tagovailoa have on the outside, and I'm not sure the Cardinals or the country are ready to see the points and stats this Crimson Tide offense is set to put up. I'll take the over.

    Pick: Over 62 points
    Score: Alabama 48, Louisville 20

    Akron Zips at Nebraska Cornhuskers (-26)

    8 p.m. ET, SaturdayCoughlin: If it ain't broke, don't fix it. So, a Scott Frost-coached team with plays being called by offensive coordinator Troy Walters is expected to score just about 40 points in its first game in Lincoln. Plenty has been said about the lack of talent the Big Red has right now, and they might not have the goods to compete this year in a full season of big-boy football in the Big Ten, but all of that talk doesn't matter. It will be tough to find a stadium this weekend with two unranked teams with as much juice as Memorial Stadium will have as the fans welcome back one of their own in Frost. I expect the Huskers to come out fast with true freshman quarterback Adrian Martinez calling the signals. He has plenty of options on offense, even though he might be the team's best runner. So I think Nebraska will score plenty, and give up plenty, too. I'll take the over.

    Pick: Over 54.5 points
    Score: Nebraska 45, Akron 20

    No. 20 Virginia Tech Hokies at No. 19 Florida State Seminoles (-7)

    8 p.m. ET, MondaySteele: Virginia Tech has a very young defense this season, and it got even younger this offseason after losing three projected starters. Last year with quarterback Deondre Francois as the starter, Florida State opened up No. 2 in the country, but Francois was out for the year Week 1 against Alabama in a game Florida State had a 15-13 first-down edge. Florida State has only 12 returning starters, but Francois returns, and this is the most talent Willie Taggart has had to work with as a coach. Florida State is also a hungry team entering the season after its underwhelming 2017. Virginia Tech is No. 92 on my current experience chart and has not traveled to Tallahassee since 2008. Virginia Tech has faced one team on the road that finished the season ranked in head coach Justin Fuente's two years, and it lost that game at Miami 28-10 last season.

    ATS pick: Florida State
    Score: Florida State 34, Virginia Tech 17

  2. #2
    SBR Drew
    SBR Drew's Avatar Become A Pro!
    Join Date: 01-08-18
    Posts: 7,351
    Betpoints: 265

    Great post...I agree with some of these. Please continue to post this information

  3. #3
    Louisvillekid1
    LAMAR MVP!
    Louisvillekid1's Avatar Become A Pro!
    Join Date: 10-17-07
    Posts: 52,044
    Betpoints: 553

    Tonight NW +1 for me

  4. #4
    jjgold
    jjgold's Avatar Become A Pro!
    Join Date: 07-20-05
    Posts: 388,190
    Betpoints: 10

    These guys throw darts

    Northwestern here

  5. #5
    reigle9
    Paint my casket black with a big ass #3
    reigle9's Avatar Become A Pro!
    Join Date: 10-25-07
    Posts: 17,879
    Betpoints: 1053

    really like duke and n. ill among these

  6. #6
    Mackballs
    Mackballs's Avatar SBR PRO
    Join Date: 12-01-16
    Posts: 5,807
    Betpoints: 12393

    Quote Originally Posted by jjgold View Post
    These guys throw darts

    Northwestern here
    They literally providena write up for each pick lol but still they throw darts

    You are a grade a hamburger

  7. #7
    krk1030
    krk1030's Avatar SBR PRO
    Join Date: 08-13-08
    Posts: 17,605
    Betpoints: 4884

    Tulane and Stanford

    Haven't dug into Saturday too much but Texas looks good. Maryland has had nothing but distractions and turmoil all training camp.

  8. #8
    Winning oasis
    Winning oasis's Avatar Become A Pro!
    Join Date: 06-14-11
    Posts: 1,241
    Betpoints: 7651

    Thanks for posting.

  9. #9
    dsgator55
    dsgator55's Avatar Become A Pro!
    Join Date: 03-21-18
    Posts: 270
    Betpoints: 6346

    Tulane is easy $$$ tonight! They can easily win this game straight up $

  10. #10
    HockeyRocks
    HockeyRocks's Avatar Become A Pro!
    Join Date: 07-10-13
    Posts: 6,069
    Betpoints: 6014

    NW +1

    Wake Forest U 56.5.

  11. #11
    bonzaii
    bonzaii's Avatar SBR PRO
    Join Date: 07-07-17
    Posts: 4,976
    Betpoints: 287

    Good looks. Steele is 3-0 right now.

  12. #12
    WheezDaJuice
    WheezDaJuice's Avatar Become A Pro!
    Join Date: 07-29-18
    Posts: 67
    Betpoints: 228

    Quote Originally Posted by SBR Drew View Post
    Great post...I agree with some of these. Please continue to post this information
    +1

    I love the Texas/Maryland over too and I am also going with UMASS. Good luck.

  13. #13
    jjgold
    jjgold's Avatar Become A Pro!
    Join Date: 07-20-05
    Posts: 388,190
    Betpoints: 10

    Ok Hawaii for me +11.5

Top