[Ralphie Halves]

These are usually my bread and butter, but I broke even last year. Had some gangster picks (UGA over, Purdue OVR), and some bad losers that I was really confident about (Idaho OVR, ND under). Pretty pumped about this year though.

Getting a late start, and a lot of lines had moved away from being valuable, so here's where we are as of August 12th.

Lines are based on the South Point on 8/10.

=================

Oklahoma OVR 10 - I've been crowing about this for months. Big 12 not as top-heavy this year. OKSt dropped off a bit, and Texas is really improving but not ready to contend just yet. OU favored by at least 6 in every single game this year. All the pieces are there. Lincoln Riley is the real MF'n deal. Top 5 HC sooner than later. Definite upgrade over Stoops. 12-0 not impossible here.

Miami OVR 9.5 - Somebody please tell me where the 3 losses are going to come from on that schedule? VTech should have a bit of a down year, remember that, I don't see that game being too competitive. People think Malik Rosier is overrated, and he might be, but if he can walk and chew gum, Miami has an easy 10 wins in there.

Penn State UND 9.5 - No SaQuon, who single-handedly willed that team to 2 extra wins. No baby Gronk at TE. And most importantly, and the linchpin in all this, is no OC Joe Moorhead who went on to coach Mississippi St. I really do think he was the main reason for that team's success, not James Franklin. It was Moorhead who was confusing the shit out of Big 10 defenses every single week, not Franklin. McSorely is a freakin gamer, but like my gripe with Jake Browning, he was throwing to wide-ass open WRs (due to Moorhead's schemes), a TE that could jump 13 ft in the air and didn't have to get open, and when they weren't open, always had SaQuon to dump off to. Have to play OSU, Mich, MichSt and Wisc, and I don't expect them to be favored in any of those games by the time they arrive. They could easily lose all 4 of them. Big 10 competition just keeps getting better, and PSU just lost too much here.

Iowa State OVR 6.5 - Really surprised to see a 6.5 here. I was a non-believer in HC Matt Campbell last year, but boy he shut me up quick. Now he's the one guy Ohio State wants more than anyone if Urban doesn't coach -- that's how freaking good he is. A lot of good depth back on the team, a team who is nothing like the ISU teams you remember from before. I'll be looking to bet them early in Big 12 play too, and as a rule I almost never bet Big 12 games.

LaTech OVR 7 - I like what Skip Holtz has done here. LaTech is the strongest and most experienced team in CUSA next to FAU. Almost the entire OL comes back, and the front 6 is all seniors. Salivating. Schedule-wise, they will lose to MissSt, and FAU, should lose to LSU (but don't be surprised if they don't), and have 9 very winnable games. The number could land on 7 here, but IMO that's absolute worst case scenario, and that would give us a push. I'll take bets like that all day.

Old Dominon OVR 5.5 - Strong-ass team just keeps getting stronger. Didn't lose anyone significant, and pulled off 5 wins last year plus a bowl appearance. Need to cut down on the turnovers, but had really inexperienced QBs playing last year, so that number should improve. No bad losses last year, every loss was to a team that was favored IIRC. That speaks to coaching. Cherry of a schedule this year. Gimmie wins over Liberty, VMI, ECU, Rice, and Charlotte. Loss against VTech and FAU. That leaves 5 very very winnable games, and ODU just needs one of them FTW.

East Carolina UND 3 - Don't be scared to bet under a low number like this. ECU is a nothing-burger. two returning starters, which may actually be a good thing you say, but the man at the controls, Scotty Montgomery, has shown to be the single biggest minus coach in FBS. Beastly schedule to boot. North Carolina A&T is the only one they should win. They may have a chance against UCONN. The rest, forget it. The only shot they have is to dump Montgomery mid-season and get lucky with the new guy. Like this bet a lot.


Leans: TTech OVR 6, Bama UND 11, WashSt UND 6, MIZZ OVR 7, Cuse OVR 5.5

========================

An unsettling amount of overs this year, but F it, happens that way sometimes.

As always, I reserve the right to add on, and probably will.

GL this year boys. Keep the pick threads alive all season, win or lose.

[skoalclasic]

I like east Carolina under too, curious which book I can find it on. 3 of mine do not have it

[Ralphie Halves]

I like east Carolina under too, curious which book I can find it on. 3 of mine do not have it

Don't have it at 3, or don't even have it posted?

[skoalclasic]

Don't have it at 3, or don't even have it posted?

Ya not even posted

[Microbetter]

Thanks for the post Ralphie

[Mike2332]

I also have Old Dominion over locked in.

Old Dominion Over 5.5 -125 $200........Old Dominion won 10 games in 2016......After losing a lot of key guys they only won 5 in 2017......This year they bring back 9 returning starting players on offense including their entire offensive line and and their starting QB who played better as the year went on last season.........Their offense will be much improved........On defense they bring back their top 5 out of 6 of their top defenders and 7 overall......Everything points to this team being much improved over last season.....If they can win 5 last season then they can win 6 games this season with all they have coming back vs a similar schedule to which they played in 2017.

[Ralphie Halves]

Yeah, I was surprised to see that number. Very easy 5 wins in there minimum, that's a big factor. Very small chance they drop one to Rice, ECU, Charlotte, Libery, or VMI. Those teams are way far down there.

[A Quant]

Good post man.

I'm not a big fan of totals only because crazy shit can happen.

Anyway. I'm answering your question about Miami.

I think they going to be way overvalued this year. They had 4 games against very average teams where they could very easily have lost, They beat GT at home 25-24, they struggled with Syracuse at home winning 27-19, played poorly at UNC winning 24-19, and of course had that tight one with Florida State.

They were 4-0 in 1 score games, that is obviously above expected variance.

As for this year. There are more than enough questions for Miami. LSU to open the season won't be easy, either will playing at BC in late October. They also have Florida State, they are AT both Georgia Tech and Virginia Tech.

Miami has just over 50 returning starts on their OL which puts them in the bottom 1/4 of 1-A, and they lost 3/4 of their starting DLine.

Again, hope you kill it, we are all in this together.

Good post.

[Ralphie Halves]

Thanks Quant. Good reasoning.

I do think they're another year better under Richt, who seems to be a much better fit there. His recruiting has been great, and as a result, that defense is crazy deep this year. We've seen the transformation in a very short amount of time, I an anxious to see what a year 3 looks like. Should be scary.

I don't think FSU is going to be there just yet, even though Taggart works magic in a hurry, and I do see VT having a one-off down year. BC is rising, but not at this caliber yet. I think Miami is a rising tide, and nobody else not named Clemson has caught up to them.

[Grits n' Gravy]

Nice info. I am very big on Moorhead at Miss St. He will be a great head coach.

Best of luck.

[Ralphie Halves]

I agree, he's already out-recruiting most of the SEC.

Can't pop on him on his first year though. Number is high too.

[survive]

Good post Ralphie. Oklahoma is so stacked year, all they need is for murray to be at least decent. Only total i’ve bet is nebraska under 6.5