1. #1
    Hman
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    Top Heisman Trophy Value Bets For 2018

    Top Heisman Trophy value bets for 2018
    Phil Steele
    ESPN INSIDER


    The Heisman Trophy, which is awarded every year in December, is without a doubt the most prestigious individual award in all of college football. The fine folks at the Westgate Las Vegas Superbook have put out their advanced odds for this year's award.

    This article is about looking for the players with the best value heading into the year. Of the seven Heisman winners this decade, only two have been in the top five of the favorites heading into the season, with most of this decade's winners drawing 20-1 odds or better. I will take a look at my top five value plays to win this year's Heisman and also touch on a dark horse contender for the award.

    Justin Herbert, QB, Oregon Ducks (14-1)

    Last year when Herbert started, the Ducks averaged an amazing 52.1 points per game, and when he was injured the Oregon offense was grounded to just 15 points per game. Herbert is now fully healthy and is also a relentless competitor. He works behind my No. 12-rated offensive line and is one of the top quarterback prospects for next year's NFL draft. Oregon's top two competitors in the Pac-12 North are Washington and Stanford. The Ducks get both of those teams at home and could be a surprise Pac-12 champion if they win those key games.


    Jake Browning, QB, Washington Huskies (20-1)

    Browning had decent numbers last year, completing 68.5 percent of his passes with 19 touchdown passes and five interceptions. But those numbers were far below expectations. Two years ago, he passed for 3,340 yards with 43 touchdown passes and only nine interceptions. I project Washington to make the playoffs this year, and Browning has a big opening national TV game against Auburn. I look for Browning to recapture his 2016 form with a stronger supporting cast, which makes him undervalued at 20-1.


    Trace McSorley, QB, Penn State Nittany Lions (20-1)

    McSorley is the straw that stirs the drink at Penn State now that Saquon Barkley departed for the NFL. McSorley is not very big but is like a coach on the field, and last year he passed for 3,570 yards with 28 touchdown passes and 10 interceptions. Look for McSorley to take on more responsibility and the offense could be just as potent as last year when the Lions averaged 41.1 points. Penn State faces only one team on the road that had a winning record last year (Michigan) and is a legitimate national title contender, which always helps a Heisman bid.


    Dwayne Haskins, QB, Ohio State Buckeyes (25-1)

    J.T.Barrett was 8-1 to win the Heisman last year and Haskins might be a more effective quarterback, even in his first year as a starter. The Buckeyes' offense is loaded this year and Haskins provides a better downfield passing threat. He is surrounded by my No. 3 set of running backs, No. 3 set of receivers and No. 7-rated offensive line. He is a throw-first quarterback with a cannon for an arm but can hurt you with his running ability as well. I have Ohio State making the playoff and quarterbacks on contending teams always have a chance.


    Brandon Wimbush, QB, Notre Dame Fighting Irish (50-1)

    Wimbush had a solid first year as a starter for the Irish, but completed only 49.5 percent of his passes and did not top 1,000 yards rushing. In the bowl game he was benched for Ian Book, who led the Irish to victory. For those reasons, the odds are very high at 50-1. Wimbush is the clear-cut starter this year and was a much-improved passer in the spring. He also now has a full year of experience under his belt. I expect him to top 1,000 yards on the ground this year and have much-improved passing numbers. I believe the Irish have a shot at 11 or even 12 wins this season and that would make him a prime contender for the Heisman. Last year, he accounted for 16 passing touchdowns and 14 more on the ground with only six interceptions and could be this year's under-the-radar player who takes home the trophy.


    Jake Bentley, QB, South Carolina Gamecocks (100-1)

    Bentley was without his top running back Rico Dowdle and top receiver Debo Samuel for most of 2017 because of injuries. He started as a 17-year-old true freshman in what should have been his senior year in high school. This is Year 3 for Bentley, and if South Carolina upsets Georgia on Sept. 8, his odds will go from 100-1 to 10-1 and you will look smart. The Gamecocks have moved to a fast-paced offense that Bentley thrived in during the spring.

  2. #2
    Ralphie Halves
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    First off Phil Steele, there is no "value" in futures betting. It's just a matter of bets that are less rapey than others.

    But that being said, Herbert and Wimbush are sucker bets IMO.

    New system for Herbert, and leaving Taggart's system is typically a downgrade.

    Wimbush losing way too many pieces that made him look better than he actually was.

    Browning does nothing but throw to wide open receivers. I don't think he's special (I actually think Jake Locker had more talent) and this is why he gets exposed when he plays top teams outside the Pac 12. But it could very well be one of those situations where he wins it, then gets murdered in the bowl game afterwards.

  3. #3
    BigdaddyQH
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    As usual, Steele is way off, but gun to head, I would pick McSorley out of the choices given me.

  4. #4
    gojetsgomoxies
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    i did some analysis of past heisman awards.... alot from big 12 and ACC in recent years. very high scoring conferences......

    so murray at oklahoma, maybe dru brown at ok state.. texas?

    on ACC side, clemson QB?, fsu QB. maybe miami QB....... sorry i only know very approx spelling of their names.

    you need someone who will have a ton of passing yards on a winning team....... or quite high pass yards on a dominant team... strikes me the good big 10 teams will just beat on each other... pac 12 won't have played enough good teams..... SEC is a possibility. alabama and georgia QB's but they won't be giant passing yards. it'll be much more efficient

  5. #5
    gojetsgomoxies
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    Quote Originally Posted by Ralphie Halves View Post
    First off Phil Steele, there is no "value" in futures betting. It's just a matter of bets that are less rapey than others.

    But that being said, Herbert and Wimbush are sucker bets IMO.

    New system for Herbert, and leaving Taggart's system is typically a downgrade.

    Wimbush losing way too many pieces that made him look better than he actually was.

    Browning does nothing but throw to wide open receivers. I don't think he's special (I actually think Jake Locker had more talent) and this is why he gets exposed when he plays top teams outside the Pac 12. But it could very well be one of those situations where he wins it, then gets murdered in the bowl game afterwards.
    i don't see washington that much even though just across border.. but browning has had amazing WR's in past seasons. not so much this year...... i want to FADE washington but petersen is too good a coach

  6. #6
    Ralphie Halves
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    Quote Originally Posted by gojetsgomoxies View Post
    on ACC side, clemson QB?, fsu QB. maybe miami QB....... sorry i only know very approx spelling of their names.
    No, no and no. Clemson isn't even sure who their QB is gonna be yet.

  7. #7
    Ralphie Halves
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    Quote Originally Posted by gojetsgomoxies View Post
    i don't see washington that much even though just across border.. but browning has had amazing WR's in past seasons. not so much this year...... i want to FADE washington but petersen is too good a coach
    They could run the ball on every play and still go 8-4. Browning will put up his #s, I just haven't been impressed so far.

  8. #8
    gojetsgomoxies
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    Quote Originally Posted by Ralphie Halves View Post
    No, no and no. Clemson isn't even sure who their QB is gonna be yet.
    freshmen have won the heisman recently................ to me, it's as much the team as the player........ my point was that ACC and B12 have won it a whole bunch. so focus on teams not neccesarily player

    i did wholeheartedly agree with your comment about this all being highly juiced, not to mention tying up cash for the whole season...... better to bet with a friend or do a pool or something.

  9. #9
    Ralphie Halves
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    Dark horse for me would be Jonathan Taylor, RB Wisconsin. All of his linemen coming back, and Badger RBs always put up sick, better-than-they-actually-are numbers. Wisconsin will be contending too, so he'll get some spotlight.

  10. #10
    daneblazer
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    These bets are for suckers, but Will Grier, Kyler Murray, Jake Browning would be my picks. Need a quarterback on a team that's going to run the score up on lesser competition. If Washington can get past Auburn, Browning should be in the conversation at the end.

    Darkhorse: D'Andre Swift from Georgia...though it's tough for any position outside of Qb to win these days.

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  11. #11
    Hman
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    Quote Originally Posted by gojetsgomoxies View Post
    i did some analysis of past heisman awards.... alot from big 12 and ACC in recent years. very high scoring conferences......

    so murray at oklahoma, maybe dru brown at ok state.. texas?

    on ACC side, clemson QB?, fsu QB. maybe miami QB....... sorry i only know very approx spelling of their names.

    you need someone who will have a ton of passing yards on a winning team....... or quite high pass yards on a dominant team... strikes me the good big 10 teams will just beat on each other... pac 12 won't have played enough good teams..... SEC is a possibility. alabama and georgia QB's but they won't be giant passing yards. it'll be much more efficient




    Great Call!

  12. #12
    gojetsgomoxies
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    Quote Originally Posted by Hman View Post
    Great Call!
    not sure it was a call, but thank you nonetheless

    so remember next year, tons of passing yards on a good team, and many passing yards on a great team...... those were the two dominant heisman guys

  13. #13
    gojetsgomoxies
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    huge phil steele fan, but his heisman analysis is horrible........... tons of guys who had zero chance to win the heisman. justin herbert was not going to win the heisman.

  14. #14
    jtoler
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    lol mcsorley, winbush, and bentley

  15. #15
    Hman
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    Quote Originally Posted by gojetsgomoxies View Post
    not sure it was a call, but thank you nonetheless

    so remember next year, tons of passing yards on a good team, and many passing yards on a great team...... those were the two dominant heisman guys


    He was the first one you named.

    Good enough

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