Conference Championship week offers bettors the prospect of a valuable ML Parlay. Read on to find out which teams you can rely on to win.
No. 1 Clemson (11-1) faces No.7 Miami (10-1) Saturday at 8 PM for the ACC Championship in Charlotte, North Carolina. Clemson is favored by 9 or 10 points.
The situation favors Clemson even to cover because, since 2005, top 10 teams are 38-61-6 ATS after a loss. Also, teams that lost the week before the conference championship by 10+ points are 5-11 SU in the championship game. Both trends apply to Miami.
The key difference between Miami and Clemson is consistency. Miami's offense will go through spurts of non-production that nearly cost them against Florida State, Georgia Tech, Syracuse and UNC.
Miami ranks 116th in time of possession and 123rd in third down conversion but 32nd in yards per play because their scoring derives especially from big plays.
But Clemson's defense is consistent. They don't give up many big plays. They limited Louisville's Lamar Jackson, allowing only 7 points through 3 quarters, when the game was decided. They likewise shut out Wake, as superstar wide receiver Greg Dortch was still healthy, through 3 quarters and held Auburn to 6 points. Each of those teams rank in the top 40 in scoring. Clemson ranks in the top 20 in limiting explosive plays and consistently prevents opposing superstars from taking over the game. They are efficient as well, ranking 9th in opposing average yards per carry and 9th in opposing average quarterback rating.
The Hurricanes will struggle to drive against a Clemson defense that ranks 14th in opposing third-down conversion. Miami will also miss their best wide receiver and starting tight end, in addition to running back Mark Walton.
Defensively, the Hurricanes will hope to spark their scoring with turnovers. Clemson is typically careful with the ball and is ranked 32nd in giveaways.
On defense, Miami's weakness is against the run. Teams typically run against Miami--53% of the time-- and Clemson will be no different. Travis Etienne, Tavien Feaster, and Adam Choice lead Clemson with over 5 yards per carry on more than 50 carries.
Look for Clemson to win by shutting down Miami's offense and controlling the ground game.
No. 8 Ohio State and No. 4 Wisconsin battle for the Big 10 Championship in Indianapolis. Ohio State is favored by 5-6 points. Public money is pouring over the higher-ranked underdog.
The scenario favors Ohio State because, since 2014, undefeated teams' cover rate is 41.9%. This trend applies to Wisconsin. Also, Urban Meyer, Ohio State's head coach, boasts a 63.8% cover rate against ranked teams.
The key match-up is between Ohio State's rush offense, which ranks 7th with 5.9 yards per carry, and Wisconsin's top-ranked run defense.
The Badgers have enjoyed a soft schedule. The highly-ranked rush attacks that they have dominated, like that of Michigan, were plagued by poor offensive line play and one-sidedness on offense.
Chemistry makes Ohio State's offensive line effective: 4 of their linemen have played 25 consecutive games together.
Versatility makes the Buckeyes dangerous on offense. The dual-threat quarterback J.T. Barrett can help divert an opposing pass rush with his mobility and misdirection. Opposing defensive linemen cannot know if he will run, hand off the ball, or pass. Either option is dangerous: Barrett averages 5.2 yards per carry, his top running back J.K. Dobbins averages 7.3 yards per carry, and his passer rating is 165, his completion percentage 66.
Barrett is used to the spotlight: he carried his team from a 19-point deficit against Penn State and a 14-point deficit at rival Michigan. He is trustworthy in case of a close game.
Wisconsin is necessarily a run-first team. Quarterback Alex Hornibrook, in Wisconsin's two games against top-ten pass defenses, threw for combined fewer than 300 yards and 4 interceptions. His passer rating is 122.3 vs ranked teams. Ohio State ranks 19th in opposing passer rating.
Ohio State's run defense ranks 8th in opposing yards per carry. The comparably strongest run defense which Wisconsin has faced was Michigan. Running back Jonathan Taylor achieved one big play, but in his 18 other carries averaged just over 4 yards per carry. Ohio State's defensive line is stacked with depth of talent that has developed chemistry. They rank 6th in tackles for loss per game, led by defensive linemen Nick Bosa and Sam Hubbard, who have over 10 each.
Look for Ohio State to limit Wisconsin's one-dimensional and oft lackluster offense, while Dobbins and Barrett surprise Wisconsin's untested defense.
The Jacksonville Jaguars offer an awesome opportunity at a multi-sport parlay. They host the Colts Sunday at 1 PM ET and are favored by 9.5 or 10.
The Jaguars are a bounce-back team. They are 3-0 SU (and ATS) after a loss. Their defense will look to reestablish itself after a sloppy showing last week on the west coast.
They already shut out the Colts in Indianapolis and that was not a fluke. The Jaguars' pass defense ranks second in opposing passer rating and have consistently limited the lesser-quality quarterbacks. They likewise limited the Tom Savage-led Texans, Joe Flacco-led Ravens and DeShone Kizer-led Browns to 7 points each.
The Colts should become one-dimensional on offense. But their top two running backs average fewer than 4 yards per carry. Their starting center will miss the game due to injury.
The return of right tackle Jermey Parnell will be significant for the Jags, who led the NFL in rushing when Parnell was healthy.
Jacksonville will be able to execute its preferred game plan against the Colts: play defense, run the ball, and don't rely on quarterback Blake Bortles to win the game.
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