[Ralphie Halves]

For Big 12, Big 10, and SEC at least. What do you guys think?

https://www.betdsi.eu/sportsbook-bet...ootball-props/

[Ralphie Halves]

Again, I haven't dived into things yet, this is mostly top-of-my-head shit, but a few I'm really paying attention to. In no order....


LSU 7.5 - OVR - It would really have to be a down year for them. Still strong at RB and defense. QB play will still be better under Coach Leghorn than it would typically be under Miles. Schedule not great, but I think you'd be crazy to think there aren't at least 8 wins in there. Look at it the other way -- would you feel confident at all betting a program like LSU to collapse and only win 7 games or less this year? Didn't think so.

TCU 8 - UND - They lost a LOT, and when this happens, they have no problem taking a year or two off to rebuild. I do NOT see 9 wins here at all. Hope this line stays where it is. If it goes down I probably won't bet it since IMO the Big 12 will be a lot less top-heavy this year, allowing more parity, but pulling off more than 8 wins would be quite a feat, even for Patterson.

Baylor 5 - OVR - I was really really hoping the books wouldn't have caught onto this and put a smaller number out there, but it looks like they're onto it too. Still can see a good 6 or 7 wins here. Great coach, still top line players there (Rhule actually had the top recruiting class in the Big 12 this year on top of that if I recall), and they started to come together a bit late. Sleeping Giant.

Iowa State 6 - OVR - Solely on what coach Matt Campbell did last year. Was super impressed. Made something out of nothing. Year 3 should be strong. Bowl team for sure IMO.

Nebraksa 5.5 - OVR - Still some real talent there, and Coach Frost is a top 10 coach that makes things happen in a hurry. Worked miracles with a lot less at UCF.

PSU 9.5 - UND - Don't understand this one at all. Lost Barkley, McSorely, Gesicki, and Hamilton. That's WAY too much production, and remember too, Barkley's heroics pretty much stole them two games last year on his own, and McSorely's stole at least one. Lost their stud OC, Joe Moorhead, to boot. A lot of folks saying it was him, not James Franklin that made PSU the force it was. To get to 10 wins, they'll have to take two from OSU, Wisc, MSU, and Mich, and avoid a bad stumble vs teams like Iowa, Pitt and AppSt. Good luck with that. I REALLY hope this line stays where it is since I'm not on BetDSI.

Miss St 8 - UND - Too much to worry about. Losing a plus coach like Mullen, and replacing him with the guy I referenced above, PSUs OC, who has never been an FBS head coach. Will Nicky Fitz be ready, and will he be able to play with the same confidence after getting his ankle exploded? There are two freshman on the depth chart behind him. Add in a couple of tricky non-conference games against K-State and LaTech, and this is bad news. Again, you would be FREAKING OUT all year if you were crazy enough to bet them to win 9 games.



What are you guys seeing so far based on those lines?

[Emily_Haines]

michigan o8.5

$2000

[gojetsgomoxies]

i think mcsorley is back for PSU....

these things are hard to figure out without number of games, strength of non-conference and conference schedule. non-conference games though are huge for this.

nebraska win total seems way too low........ just the excitement of the scott frost era is going to make that team alot better i.e. more motivated

[Ralphie Halves]

i think mcsorley is back for PSU....

these things are hard to figure out without number of games, strength of non-conference and conference schedule. non-conference games though are huge for this.

I had read somewhere that McSorley was leaving. This was right after the season though, he could have changed his mind. Still love the total. Barkley did wonders for him. Should have left early if he could have. He's a Junior, but I thought he was a RS Junior. Maybe not.

And the schedules are out. We know all of these things already.

[Ralphie Halves]

ACC up now.

Nothing huge, but I would lean Wake OVR 6.5, even though their schedule is tough. Very good coaching there.

North Carolina will be much better too. There's more than 6 wins in there.

[eeezzzz]

Louisville under 8. I doubt they win 6 games this year, tough schedule and they have to open against Bama

[BigdaddyQH]

A few early observations: West Virginia Over 7. This team is a Top 25 team in numerous polls and returns 7 starters on each side of the ball.

Clemson Over 10 1/2. Who beats them? Maybe one loss in the regular season. No Miami or Va. Tech on the schedule. 15 starters return.

Michigan State Over 8 1/2 wins. Sparty returns 10 on offense and 9 on defense. I do not see more than 3 losses for this team.

Auburn Under 9. Key losses to their ground game and defense hurt. With sure losses to both UGA and Alabama on the road, they must win out including games against Washington and the SEC West to win 10 games.

Florida Over 7. The Gators have 3 lock non-con home wins. 5 conference wins in the SEC East is not a lot to ask for.

[Ralphie Halves]

Louisville under 8. I doubt they win 6 games this year, tough schedule and they have to open against Bama

I have no play on it, but I do think the number is a little low just because you know there are lots of people out there that will think "Louisville lost Lamar, ergo they will have a down year". They forget how good Petrino is.

[Ralphie Halves]

A few early observations: West Virginia Over 7. This team is a Top 25 team in numerous polls and returns 7 starters on each side of the ball.

Clemson Over 10 1/2. Who beats them? Maybe one loss in the regular season. No Miami or Va. Tech on the schedule. 15 starters return.

Michigan State Over 8 1/2 wins. Sparty returns 10 on offense and 9 on defense. I do not see more than 3 losses for this team.

Auburn Under 9. Key losses to their ground game and defense hurt. With sure losses to both UGA and Alabama on the road, they must win out including games against Washington and the SEC West to win 10 games.

Florida Over 7. The Gators have 3 lock non-con home wins. 5 conference wins in the SEC East is not a lot to ask for.

All pretty solid. I remember you had some good ones early last year too (Wisc, OKSt).

West Virginia to me is just too unpredictable though. Almost becoming a "never-bet" team for me like VTech and Cal were for over a decade.

[BigdaddyQH]

All pretty solid. I remember you had some good ones early last year too (Wisc, OKSt).

West Virginia to me is just too unpredictable though. Almost becoming a "never-bet" team for me like VTech and Cal were for over a decade.

West Virginia is rather unpredictable, but their home record in the past 3 seasons is 17-4 S/U. I think that they can win two of their away games, and go 5-1 at home. That adds up to 7 wins. Their away schedule is Tennessee (Neutral site), N.C. State, Texas Tech, Iowa State, Texas, and Okie State. I think they can get 3 wins.

[Ralphie Halves]

PAC 12 up now. Was waiting for this one.


Cal 5.5 - OVR - Can't bet this one fast enough. Not your older brother's Cal team. This one is legit. Will keep getting better and better. One of the better QBs in the PAC 12 coming back. Please stay at 5.5

Arizona State 5 - UND - Dumpster fire. You guys know I bet coaches heavy, and this is one of the worst coaching situations in all of NCAAF. This will get the AD fired -- my not-so-bold prediction.


Side note, the LSU total is down to 6.5, madness! They haven't won less than 8 this entire decade, and the coaching staff and remaining talent is too strong to let that happen. I don't see how the under is a play at all. Like I said before, I haven't really had the time to sit down and research it all, but good Lord, 6 point freaking 5???

[BigdaddyQH]

Pac 12 takes: Washington State Under 7.5. They lose their QB who made things run. Their offense collapsed at the end of last season. Have teams caught up to Leach? They host Utah, Oregon and Washington and go to USC, Stanford, and Colorado. I can see 5 losses out of that group.

Cal Over 5.5. Cal has a solid group of starters returning. The first two games of the season (North Carolina and at BYU) should determine if the Bears can get 6 wins or not. Home games with Idaho State, UCLA, and Colorado, plus away games at Arizona and Oregon State are all winnable.

The other Pac 12 teams have way too many intangables to wager on at this time.

A comment about LSU. Do not be so sure that LSU covers 6.5 wins. They have a terrible HC. They return 4 starters off a poor offensive team, and 6 from the defense. Their schedule is brutal. They open in Arlington Tx against Miami (Fl). Their cross over games are at Florida and home against Georgia. They go to Auburn, Arkansas, and Texas A&M. Throw in Alabama and the rest of the SEC West and I can see 6 losses very easily. What are the odds for Under 6.5? +110 or more makes them an Under take.

[Ralphie Halves]

Orgeron sounds like a dolt, but you have to hand it to the guy, he's won everywhere he's gone. And he delegates the play calling and scheming to his assistants who are both top end.

Kind of like Dick Vermiel when the Rams won the SB. He was pretty much just a rah rah guy, while Martz and Lovie Smith did all the work.

That schedule is nasty, but I still lean hard OVR 6.5 for now. Early money disagrees with me.

[BigdaddyQH]

Oregon is 7.5, not 6.5, and they are still a good wager to go over. They have three ultra easy no-con games at home. They get both Arizona teams, UCLA, and Utah as crossover games with UCLA and Arizona State at home. They get both Washington and Stanford at home. Tough call, but no way I could take the under here. Not with Oregon State, Cal, and Washington State also on the schedule. If the total were 6.5, you could put the mortgage on it. 7 wins against a patsy schedule like theirs should be a lock.