Clemson - 16

Line dropped from -19 and that's just fine with me. Yes, FSU just beat Syracuse, who beat Clemson (when Clemson's QB got hurt), but this is a terrible matchup. Clemson has the same style of defense that BC runs, that makes it brutal on your QB -- FSU's freshman QB who has not impressed. Clemson has been up and down containing the run, but only when there's a legit threat at QB, and there's not here. Clemson's strength -- DLine. FSU's biggest weakness all year? OLine and QB. FSU has 12(!) players listed as questionable for Saturday, which I don't think I've ever seen before. Since Bama, scariest Defense FSU has faced by far, and they're doing it on the road. Short fields for Clemson, tired defenses for FSU.

Michigan State +17

Classic MSU dog play that almost always hits. It just does. I'm not one for trends, but you can't ignore this one. Since 2011, MichSt as an underdog is 17-5-1 ATS and 13-10 SU!! ML is at +585, just sayin. I just...can' it. I give BigDaddy hell when he says dumb shit like "Penn St is 35-0 against Maryland going back to 1987", because it was true, but from a betting angle, it's fukking retarded (Maryland won the game we were arguing about). When you have a stat like this however, it speaks more to Mark Dantonio's preparation than anything. QB Brian Lewerke getting better and better, and can run away from pressure really well. So dangerous as a dog. +17.5 at Bookmaker, but I don't have Bookmaker, and got +17. I'm taking my own handicapping pretty much out of this one and just playing a really strong trend.

Arkansas St -10

I can't believe this line hasn't moved yet. USA is a sneaky team historically that gets odd wins as underdogs, but not this time. USA is stuck in the mud and has had real trouble running the football. ArkSt is like the UCF of the Sun Belt -- they're way more talented than everyone else, and they don't mind running up the score on people. Plus, they're off of a bye week. Weather should be nice, no excuses. Looking forward to this one.