I'm looking at your numbers on ISU and WV. ISU is +2.5. However ISU is -4.7 SOS. Am I correct that this is a 7.2 point difference? So ISU could be a play based on this?
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10-31-17 11:39 AM #246
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10-31-17 01:29 PM #247
Yep, both numbers say Iowa St should be favored. Good ML candidate, one of the ones I'm looking at and if it's not +3, then I'll take the ML. Iowa St is clicking right now.
Originally Posted by eastvan09
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10-31-17 01:35 PM #248
Be aware the numbers on the season won't reflect a recent major injury, but the line will. So if there is a big difference in the line and numbers, I look for reasons why that could be and the injury list in the first place I start. I had those included last week in my post, but it takes longer to put together and wanted to spend less time on gathering data for games I'm not that interested in and more time on the ones I am.
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10-31-17 02:08 PM #249
Might put Ohio in my teaser this week, they've beat Miami,OH 10 out of last 11 and usually crush them at Home around Halloween. You might not be able to tell it from the stands but they have a decent atmosphere at Home games and I expect it to be a big party night in Athens tonight for Halloween. I just wish I knew the status of Ragland who is Questionable. My guess is he is going to play but how effective can he be with a bad leg is the question.
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10-31-17 11:32 PM #250
Not sure on OU. Okie State. OU can give up some crappy TD's. Gut tells me. The cowboys. But will just watch. Easier games to cap this week. BOL
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10-31-17 11:33 PM #251
Not pretty but Frankie got it done
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11-01-17 07:11 AM #252
yep, I should of put Ohio in a teaser and played BG liked I had planned but I stopped monitoring the lines a few hours before and didn't see them both come down. Oh well went 2-0 in NBA and MLB last night. Originally Posted by shopbar picks
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11-02-17 01:16 PM #253
Week 10 Plays
¤ Ball State/E.Michigan Over 47 -110
¤ Ball State TT Over 10.5 -110
___________________________
I think the total is too low here, E.Michigan should have no problem scoring points against Ball St like everyone else has been doing and I think Ball St can manage to get over 10.5. All it takes is a lot of quick scores by EMU to give Ball St a lot of chances, or a DEF TD, Special teams TD or some help from the refs. I know they are missing their QB and RB, but that's not new and they've scored less than 10 points vs EMU only once since 1998 and they play every year. I'll take my chances on a rare TT play. And if Ball St can get some points, it should have no problem hitting the Over. GLA!
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11-02-17 01:34 PM #254
GL! I am passing on tonight's games. Originally Posted by FUqer
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11-02-17 02:04 PM #255
Thx! Outside chance I might go to the Toledo game tonight, depends on what time my wife gets home. N.Illinois has a way of covering on the Road, but Home teams usually win big when I go to games. Originally Posted by eastvan09
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11-02-17 02:10 PM #256
Oh, if you go will you lay the points with Toledo? The line has come down slightly. Originally Posted by FUqer
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11-02-17 03:31 PM #257
She didn't want to go cuz it starts too early, but I wouldn't of played anything.
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11-02-17 06:29 PM #258
Nothing like cashing both bets before halftime! Originally Posted by FUqer
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11-02-17 07:49 PM #259
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11-03-17 02:19 AM #260
Added some plays for Saturday. 4 teams that I liked when I looked at the card and the numbers and everything else checked out. Originally Posted by FUqer
One trend of note that I found was Road Dogs of +14 or more with a total of 42 or less are 62.8% ATS, applies to Minnesota this week. And S.Carolina was another big dog and low total I liked, either SC or the Over seems like a good play.
Some other teams I'm considering...
Kentucky
Maryland
Old Dominion
UNLV
Purdue
New Mexico St
Utah St
S.Carolina
Northwestern
Syracuse
BYU
Stanford
Oregon
Virginia Tech
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11-03-17 07:45 PM #261
Added 3 more plays. Originally Posted by FUqer
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11-03-17 11:07 PM #262
With you on several on them. Bol tomorrow.
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11-03-17 11:25 PM #263
BOL FUqer and shopbar.
Here is my card. All plays 1 unit.
Syracuse +7, -120
Arkansas -23.5, -110
UNLV -8, -110
LSU +21, -110
So far I'm resisting parlays.
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11-04-17 02:17 AM #264
Like the cuse play. I just can't pull the trigger Originally Posted by eastvan09
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11-04-17 09:14 AM #265
Feel the same way. Like UNLV too. GL to both of you, always rooting for you. Originally Posted by shopbar picks
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11-04-17 09:16 AM #266
Syracuse should win, I don’t see why they don’t, but like you guys can’t seem to pull trigger.
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11-04-17 09:18 AM #267
When you can no longer resist, let me know lol
Originally Posted by eastvan09
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11-04-17 10:32 AM #268
Added some noon plays and my teaser. Originally Posted by FUqer
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11-04-17 11:23 AM #269
Yeah, not sure how long that will be! Originally Posted by rgrant2214
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11-05-17 12:41 AM #270
2-1-1. +0.7 units. Originally Posted by eastvan09
UNLV pushed. Was thinking about buying a hook but didn't.
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11-05-17 01:40 AM #271
Week 10 Results
LOSS - ¤ Texas Tech -4.5 -110 (5Dimes)
LOSS - ¤ Texas A&M +14.5 -110 (5Dimes)
LOSS - ¤ Florida ML +105 (5Dimes)
LOSS - ¤ Iowa St ML +120 (Bovada)
LOSS - ¤ Stanford ML +100 (5Dimes)
LOSS - ¤ Maryland -3 -115 (5Dimes)
WIN - ¤ Northwestern -2 -110 (5Dimes)
WIN - ¤ Wyoming +3.5 -120 (Bovada)
LOSS - ¤ Nevada +21.5 -110 (Bovada)
LOSS - ¤ Minnesota +15.5 -110 (5Dimes)
WIN - ¤ Teaser (Michigan St +20)(Syracuse +17.5)(Arizona +17.5)
WIN - ¤ Ball State/E.Michigan Over 47 -110
WIN - ¤ Ball State TT Over 10.5 -110
___________________________
Week 10 = 5-8 for -3.55
__________________________
Season = 59-50 for +9.83
___________________________
ATS Total = 33-32 for -1.71
(Dogs = 18-24 for -8.13 )
(Favs = 15-8 for +6.42 )
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ML Total = 7-8 for +0.05
(Dogs = 7-6 for +2.20 )
(Favs = 0-2 for -2.15 )
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O/U Total = 4-2 for +1.90
(Over = 2-0 for +2.00 )
(Under = 2-1 for +0.90 )
(1st H = 0-0 for +0.00 )
(2nd H = 0-1 for -1.00 )
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Parlays = 6-5 for +2.99
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Teasers = 9-3 for +6.60
___________________________
Week 1 = 5-7 for -2.17
Week 2 = 4-3 for +1.17
Week 3 = 11-1 for +10.30
Week 4 = 3-2 for +1.92
Week 5 = 6-4 for +1.92
Week 6 = 5-5 for -0.21
Week 7 = 9-5 for +4.60
Week 8 = 6-10 for -4.50
Week 9 = 5-5 for +0.35
Week 10 = 5-8 for -3.55
____________________
Same story as last week, started out 2-0 during the week, but sucked on Saturday, but unlike last week I wasn't able to turn a profit. It was a pretty disheartening day in NCAA, but that's the risk you take with so many plays. I'm most disappointed with myself over the the noon additions, I just had to have some noon action so I added 3 losers and took bad lines on two of them and one of them cost me a cover in the Texas A&M game. On a good note, I did hit my teaser again and kicked ass in UFC with a 3 unit parlay win and a 2 unit win on GSP, but my pride took a hit in NCAA today. Lucky to still be up almost 10 units in NCAA, but I might need to scale it back till I start winning again.
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11-05-17 01:42 AM #272
Nice job, can't believe Arkansas about lost that SU. Originally Posted by eastvan09
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11-05-17 01:47 AM #273
Granted this is only my 4th season, but I've never done this bad with dogs.
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11-05-17 02:17 AM #274
Tough, hard when you lose a cover by a point and a push by a half point. Dogs are all over the map - winning SU, barely covering or not covering, or getting crushed. Some dogs also quit for the game and in some cases for the remainder of the season. Seems like part of it is finding the perfect spot combined with an overvalued favorite or a favorite in a bad spot. Originally Posted by FUqer
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11-05-17 02:19 AM #275
Yeah, Arkansas is terrible. I thought Coastal Carolina was the team to fade but Arkansas was overvalued. I'll look for spits to fade Arkansas against good teams if the lines have value. Originally Posted by FUqer
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11-05-17 06:08 PM #276
Week 11 Plays
¤ Michigan St +16 -110 (5Dimes)
¤ Nebraska +2.5 -110 (5Dimes)
¤ Syracuse -2.5 -110 (5Dimes)
¤ Georgia -2 -110 (5Dimes)
¤ Washington St -1 -110 (5Dimes)
¤ Notre Dame -2.5 -120 (5Dimes)
¤ Wyoming +3 -110 (5Dimes)
___________________________
Getting them in early this week.
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11-05-17 09:17 PM #277
Good stuff, you got some good opening lines. I am looking at Georgia but don't want to pay -120 for -2.5. Waiting for the juice to be reduced. Originally Posted by FUqer
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11-05-17 11:22 PM #278
I like that card. Nebraska is terrible but as a homer feel they are better than the gophers
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11-06-17 12:57 AM #279
I'm also liking Purdue Okie State and VaTech
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11-06-17 10:29 AM #280
I felt that was the best it was gonna get for Georgia, wanted it under 3. When you play baseball, a little juice doesn't scare you once in awhile. We'll see what happens, tired of losing games by a half point or a point. Originally Posted by eastvan09
Last edited by FUqer; 11-06-17 at 10:37 AM. Reason: typonese
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