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10-26-17 01:33 PM #211
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10-26-17 02:47 PM #212
Thanks u2!
Originally Posted by eastvan09
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10-26-17 02:54 PM #213
Added my teaser for the week, I've been doing good with them and I like this one as long as Memphis can come thru, so I made it my first two unit play of the season. Originally Posted by FUqer
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10-27-17 05:10 AM #214
Good to start the week with a win after having my 1st bad week of the season last week. E.Michigan should of won that game SU, so many missed FG's, I feel sorry for them always losing close games.
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10-27-17 07:56 AM #215
I think Boston College is playing better football right now, but the thing that scares me is that this is a MUST win game for FSU, if they want to make a bowl game. With 5 games left, they need 4 wins and their not going to beat Clemson at Clemson. And it's not really just the team's motivation to win that worries me in taking BC, it also wouldn't surprise me if the NCAA would also love to have FSU in a bowl game. I'll prolly pass on the game, but the Under does interest me. Would love to hear some thoughts on the Under from people who plays totals a lot.
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10-27-17 07:56 AM #216
Choice info FU.....keep up the good work and thanks for the handwork putting this stuff together.
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10-27-17 08:31 AM #217
FSU doesn't win by a huge margin. BC has been playing well lately ... Give me BC plus points
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10-27-17 10:40 AM #218
Added the Under play in the FSU/BC game. Neither QB can pass very good and FSU lost their RB last week. I expect them to play it tight as this game means a lot for them. Some pretty nice trends below for some added confidence. Originally Posted by FUqer
___________________________
Florida St 1-9 OU L10 as a Road Fav.
Florida St 0-5-1 OU L6 as a Favorite.
Florida St 2-11 OU L13 on the Road.
Boston College 4-15-1 OU L20 at Home.
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10-27-17 09:30 PM #219
Posting Sat. Card tonight?
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10-28-17 09:00 AM #220
Added 3 plays for the noon games. Probabilities for later are S.Carolina, Texas Tech, San Diego St, Florida and a few others maybe New Mexico, App St, Arizona, Tennessee, La Tech. GLA! Originally Posted by FUqer
Last edited by FUqer; 10-28-17 at 09:15 AM. Reason: Correction
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10-28-17 09:19 AM #221
I thought I played Baylor at +9 -120 and as soon as I thought I clicked place bet I came and posted it and I just went back to the page to see the bet didn't go thru cuz of an odds change to +10 -115, so I of course played it at those odds. Same thing happened with me last week when playing a teaser, I hit place bet and thought that was that, but never went back to check it and it never went through and I was pissed, at least this time I caught it and got better odds in the process.
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10-28-17 09:56 AM #222
Some of you might find this interesting. I made 2 parlays, one with what I thought were sharp picks and one with square. Only risked about $1 each on these. Square or sharp doesn't matter as long as it wins, it's more about picking spots, IMO.
#1
Kansas
New Mexico St
Minnesota
USC
UCLA
Florida
Arizona
#2
Tennessee
Appalachian St
La Tech
Michigan St
Penn St
Washington St
San Diego St
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10-28-17 10:06 AM #223
GL with your card. I like the parlays.
I have a few small parlays 3-4 games and a few larger ones. Good week so far, I'm also off to a 2-0 start with my card. Toledo and BC winning comfortably.
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10-28-17 10:11 AM #224
A few more games I never got around to posting
_______________________________________
Oklahoma St(+2.6) -7 (+1.7) (-3.4) at W.Virginia(+2.3)
Last Matchup = 2016 at Oklahoma St won by Oklahoma St 37-20 as +4.5 Dogs.
Next Game = (Oklahoma St plays at Home vs Oklahoma) (W.Virginia plays at Home vs Iowa St)
Injuries = Nothing new.
Motivation = Big Conference game, Oklahoma St does have Oklahoma up next.
Line Movement = Was at -8 and now at -7.
Public = 65% on W.Virginia as of Friday morning.
Trends
Oklahoma St won the last two meeting by 17 and 7, L4 have went Under.
Oklahoma St 14-4 OU L18 as a Favorite, 16-2 SU.
W.Virginia 1-6 ATS and 0-7 SU L7 as a Dog.
W.Virginia 6-1 OU L7 overall.
________________________________________
California(+1.2) +3 (+3.4) (+0.7) at Colorado(+1.6)
Last Matchup = 2014 at California won by California 59-56 as -14 favs.
Next Game = (California plays at Home vs Oregon St) (Colorado plays at Arizona St)
Injuries =
(Colorado - Starting Center Jonathan Huckins is Questionable with a concussion.)
Motivation = California has the better chance to reach 6 wins by far.
Line Movement = Opened at Colorado -4 at Bookmaker and now at -3 as of Wednesday night.
Public = 61% on California as of Wednesday morning.
Money = Appears to be on California
Trends
California 2-9 ATS L11 on the Road.
Colorado 3-0 ATS L3 vs California.
Colorado 0-5 ATS L5 at Home.
Colorado 2-9 ATS L11 overall.
________________________________________
Utah(+1.7) -3.5 (-3.4) (-2.1) at Oregon(-2.7)
Last Matchup = 2016 at Utah won by Oregon 30-28 as +11 Dogs.
Next Game = (Utah plays at Home vs UCLA) (Oregon plays at Washington)
Motivation = Oregon is going to have to pull a upset in one of their remaining games and beat Oregon St to reach 6 wins. Utah has 5
chances to win 2 more games and should be favs in 3 of them.
Line Movement = None
Public = 60% on Utah as of Wednesday morning.
Money = Unknown.
Trends
Utah 6-0 ATS L6 on the Road.
Utah 2-8 OU L10 overall.
Oregon 7-2 SU L9 at Home vs Utah.
Oregon 44-16-2 OU at Home since Sept 6th, 2008.
________________________________________
Texas(+2.6) -9 (-4.4) (-11.9) at Baylor(-3.8)
Last Matchup = 2016 at Texas won by Texas 35-34 as +4 Dogs.
Next Game = (Texas plays at TCU) (Baylor plays at Kansas)
Injuries =
(Texas - Starting QB Shane Buechele is Probable with an ankle injury.)
(Texas - 2nd String QB Sam Ehlinger is Out with a Concussion.)
Motivation = Texas still needs to win 3 out of their last 5 games to reach 6 wins and this is one that is a must win for them. Baylor hasn't
won all season, 0-7.
Line Movement = None that I've seen, although may have opened at -10.5 on Bookmaker.
Public = 56% on Texas as of Friday morning.
Trends
Texas won the last 2 meetings, L4 have went Under.
Texas 5-0-1 ATS L6 overall, Under 5-1.
Texas 2-12 OU L14 overall.
Texas 1-7 OU L8 as a Road Favorite.
Baylor 14-4 ATS L18 as a Dog.
Baylor 6-0 ATS L6 as a Home Dog, Over 5-1.
Baylor 8-1 OU L9 as a Home Dog.
________________________________________
Washington St(+0.9) -3 (+2.7) (+0.9) at Arizona(+0.6)
Last Matchup = 2016 at Washington State won by Washington State 69-7 as -16 Favs.
Next Game = (Washington State plays at Home vs Stanford) (Arizona plays at USC)
Motivation = Arizona may remember the 69-7 beatdown they took last year.
Line Movement = Opened Washington St -3 and now at -2.5
Public = 67% on Washington St as of Friday night.
Money = Possible signs some money on Arizona as line dropped half a point desite large % on Washington St.
Trends
Washington State 4-1 ATS L5 vs Arizona.
Washington State 0-5 OU L5 overall.
Arizona 16-32-1 ATS L49 as a Dog.
________________________________________
Arkansas(-3.6) +3.5 (+3.8) (-0.3) at Mississippi(-2.8)
Last Matchup = at Arkansas won by Arkansas 34-30 as +10 Dogs.
________________________________________
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10-28-17 10:16 AM #225
Gl 2u2. Seems like a good card this week, I just don't want to reel off a dozen plays at once this week, I might lose some value in the process, but oh well. Originally Posted by eastvan09
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10-28-17 10:17 AM #226
I crashed super hard last night, barely made it thru the FSU game. Who you got today? Originally Posted by shopbar picks
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10-28-17 10:33 AM #227
About the Buckeye game today, Penn St would be the only side I would play for multiple reasons. One of them being I'm a Buckeye fan and if anything I like to bet against my favorite teams in big games like this so it's sorta a win/win for me. Penn St ML is tempting, but that's a nice amount of points to get also. I think what's holding me back is that even though I go into it thinking it's going to be a win/win, I sometimes find myself rooting against my favorite team, hahaha. It's also my wife's Alma mater and she wouldn't like that.
The weather situation here hasn't been good, it rained all night and morning and it's gloomy looking and could start raining again at anytime. Fans seems pretty hype so Penn St better get off to a fast start and take the crowd out of it early. Anyway, I feel Penn St is the play, but I doubt I will mess with it. Go Bucks!
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10-28-17 11:00 AM #228
Not a big total player, but the Over in the Kansas game seems low at 55.
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10-28-17 11:09 AM #229
Added 3 more plays. Originally Posted by FUqer
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10-28-17 11:36 AM #230
Got to be kidding me with these turnovers. Oklahoma St had 2 in 1st 5 mins and Baylor threw a pick 6 and just turned it over at their end. FFS.
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10-28-17 12:44 PM #231
That's bad. Originally Posted by FUqer
Ole Miss -3.5 is an important play for me today in a straight and some parlays. They were driving up 31-7. 2 Turnovers and it's 31-21 at half.
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10-28-17 12:55 PM #232
Added California. Originally Posted by FUqer
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10-29-17 03:07 AM #233
I had a good week with straight bets and a terrible run of parlays.
Straights, 4-2. +2.62 units
Parlays 0-8. -7 units
I chased too much with parlays. Figuring different combinations so I could hit one. At the end of the day it doesn't matter which parlays had 1 loss. Need to limit myself to 1 or 2 parlays next week until I start hitting them. Also only use my tier 1 plays on parlays. Or maybe even consider a card without a parlay.
I felt on point with my straight bets as my losses were UCF -40.5 by a hook and Ole Miss -3.5 blew a 31-7 lead. Oddly all my winners won via blowouts with a combined 102 points above their spreads. Since my parlays pushed me into a losing week, I will experiment with betting more units on my tier 1 plays.
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10-29-17 03:54 AM #234
Week 9 Results
WIN - ¤ E.Michigan +7 -110 (Bovada)
WIN - ¤ Oklahoma St -7 -120 (Bovada)
LOSS - ¤ Baylor +10 -115 (Bovada)
LOSS - ¤ Virginia ML +108 (5Dimes)
LOSS - ¤ California +4 -110 (5Dimes)
LOSS - ¤ Florida +14 -120 (Bovada)
LOSS - ¤ Texas Tech +21 -120 (5Dimes)
WIN - ¤ San Diego St -8.5 -110 (5Dimes)
WIN - ¤ Florida St/Boston College Under 47 -110
WIN - ¤ Teaser -110 x2 (Memphis -1)(La Tech -3)(San Diego St +1)
___________________________
Week 9 = 5-5 for +0.35
__________________________
Season = 54-42 for +13.38
___________________________
ATS Total = 31-27 for +1.84
(Dogs = 17-21 for -5.83 )
(Favs = 14-6 for +7.67 )
---------------------------
ML Total = 7-5 for +3.05
(Dogs = 7-3 for +5.20 )
(Favs = 0-2 for -2.15 )
---------------------------
O/U Total = 2-2 for -0.10
(Over = 0-0 for +0.00 )
(Under = 2-1 for +0.90 )
(1st H = 0-0 for +0.00 )
(2nd H = 0-1 for -1.00 )
---------------------------
Parlays = 6-5 for +2.99
---------------------------
Teasers = 8-3 for +5.60
___________________________
Week 1 = 5-7 for -2.17
Week 2 = 4-3 for +1.17
Week 3 = 11-1 for +10.30
Week 4 = 3-2 for +1.92
Week 5 = 6-4 for +1.92
Week 6 = 5-5 for -0.21
Week 7 = 9-5 for +4.60
Week 8 = 6-10 for -4.50
Week 9 = 5-5 for +0.35
____________________
It was a winning week thanks to my early picks, but I'm not happy about today. I can't complain about much except Texas Tech scoring 20 points in the 1st Q and only scoring 7 after that, but the killer was the missed PAT on their 1st TD that prevented a push. It was the opposite of last week where my early plays sucked and my late ones did good. Thankfully my first 2 unit play of the year on my teaser won and covered all the juice I laid this week to make it a positive week, but still disappointing after starting 2-0 during the week. I felt like nothing went my way today and it prevented me from making any more plays, which was prolly a good thing. I did get a win with the Dodgers in MLB though and that helped for the day and the Buckeyes had an amazing comeback.
I think it's time to start paying more attention to some things like my record on dogs this season vs favorites, which is surprising to me, but it is what it is, I've been very good when I play a favorite cuz it's not something I do as much and If I was tailing me, I would be tailing my favorite picks and teasers. I also need to start the week by going back and analyzing some things like how my numbers did vs the results, because it seems they did very good and I might want to start putting more stock into them, as I did go against them a few times this week and I don't think it turned out good, so maybe it's about time to start trusting them more. Another thing I've noticed this season compared to past seasons for me is that I'm playing more on the bigger schools and I usually like to play the smaller ones, just like in College Basketball. Anyway I'll try to adjust some things and get going again, but I'm still satisfied with my season so far, just need to finish strong, I would love to get over +20 units.
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10-30-17 04:39 PM #235
---------------------------------(YPPM)--(+HF)--(+SOS)
*Bowling Green*(-4.5) -1.5 (-20.4) (-17.4) (-17.2) at Kent St(-24.9)
Miami,OH(-3.8) NA (+6.5) (+9.5) (+9.8) at *Ohio(+2.7)
C.Michigan(-0.6) +7 (+3.3) (+6.3) (+8.8) at *W.Michigan(+2.7)
N.Illinois(+2.3) +10 (-0.9) (+2.1) (+1.9) at *Toledo(+1.4)
Navy(+0.4) -8.5 (-4.0) (-1.0) (-9.2) at *Temple(-3.6)
-Memphis(+2.2) -12 (-1.2) (+0.8) (-0.5) at *Tulsa(+1.0)
UCLA(-0.1) NA (-0.1) (+2.9) (-1.3) at *Utah(-0.2)
Baylor*(-4.9) -9.5 (-3.6) (-1.6) (-10.3) at Kansas(-8.5)
Clemson*(+7.6) -7 (-6.5) (-3.5) (-8.6) at NC State(+1.1)
Illinois(-4.0) +14 (+7.3) (+10.3) (+17.7) at *Purdue(+3.3)
-Mississippi(-2.9) +3.5 (+5.5) (+8.5) (+7.2) at *Kentucky(+2.6)
Syracuse(-1.6) +4 (-3.4) (-0.4) (+7.4) at *Florida St(-5.0)
Northwestern(+1.6) +2 (-3.8) (-0.8) (-3.3) at *Nebraska(-2.2)
Ohio State*(+4.2) -16.5 (+3.3) (+5.3) (-0.3) at Iowa(+7.5)
Iowa St(+6.7) +2.5 (-5.2) (-2.2) (-4.7) at *W.Virginia(+1.5)
Virginia Tech*(+9.5) -2.5 (-4.8) (-1.8) (-2.3) at Miami,FL(+4.7)
+Maryland*(+0.0) -1 (-2.0) (-2.0) (-8.5) nt Rutgers(-2.0)
Georgia Tech*(+1.1) -9.5 (-3.3) (-0.3) (-8.4) at Virginia(-2.2)
Nevada(-0.5) +22 (+3.3) (+6.3) (+9.2) at *Boise St(+2.8)
Colorado*(+2.1) +4 (-1.9) (+1.1) (+7.3) at Arizona St(+0.2)
New Mexico St*(-2.8) -10.5 (-8.0) (-6.0) (-14.5) at Texas St(-10.8)
Appalachian St*(+1.1) -9.5 (-0.7) (+1.3) (-3.9) at UL Monroe(+0.4)
-Charlotte(-10.9) +8 (+6.6) (+9.6) (+13.6) at *Old Dominion(-4.3)
S.Mississippi(-2.6) +6.5 (-0.3) (+3.7) (+18.8) at *Tennessee(-2.9)
-Auburn(+6.9) -15 (-6.3) (-3.3) (-8.6) at *Texas A&M(+0.6)
Army(+2.6) +7 (-3.4) (-0.4) (+5.7) at *Air Force(-0.8)
Wisconsin*(+8.2) -9 (-9.7) (-6.7) (-1.1 ) at Indiana(-1.5)
Cincinnati*(-5.0) +5 (+4.7) (+7.7) (+7.9) at Tulane(-0.3)
S.Carolina(+5.8) +25 (+4.2) (+8.2) (+16.1) at *Georgia(+10.0)
C.Florida*(+8.5) -13 (-7.5) (-4.5) (-8.1) at SMU(+1.0)
W.Kentucky(+0.7) +11.5 (-2.6) (+0.4) (+18.1) at *Vanderbilt(-1.9)
+Kansas St*(+4.5) +4 (-5.0) (-2.0) (+2.0) at Texas Tech(-0.5)
Texas(+3.8) +7.5 (+2.2) (+5.2) (+4.0 ) at *TCU(+6.0)
-N.Texas(-1.9) +3.5 (+2.0) (+5.0) (+5.2) at *La Tech(+0.1)
Oregon(-1.4) +25 (+9.5) (+12.5) (+10.4) at *Washington(+8.1)
Minnesota(+3.4) +15.5 (-3.4) (+0.6) (+7.8) at *Michigan(+0.0)
+Oklahoma*(+1.5) +3 (+0.4) (+3.4) (+1.7) at Oklahoma St(+1.9)
Wake Forest(+2.5) +14 (+7.5) (+11.5) (+14.1) at *Notre Dame(+10.0)
Rice*(-11.9) +11.5 (+12.2) (+15.2) (+7.2) at UAB(+0.3)
UL Lafayette*(-2.4) +4.5 (+0.1) (+3.1) (+7.5) at S.Alabama(-2.3)
Utah St(+0.1) +4.5 (-6.2) (-3.2) (-3.7) at *New Mexico(-6.1)
+BYU*(-6.1) +13.5 (+6.5) (+9.5) (+13.2) at Fresno St(+0.4)
-Hawaii(-5.8) +7.5 (+6.3) (+9.3) (+13.1) at *UNLV(+0.5)
-Colorado St(+0.3) -2.5 (+4.7) (+7.7) (+6.4) at *Wyoming(+5.0)
UTSA*(+2.4) -4 (-3.7) (-0.7) (+2.2) at Florida INT(-1.3)
Florida*(-2.0) +3 (+0.3) (+3.3) (-2.4) at Missouri(-1.7)
LSU(-1.2) +21.5 (+14.0) (+18.0) (+17.6) at *Alabama(+12.8)
+Penn St*(+12.6) -7.5 (-14.8) (-11.8) (-18.7) at Michigan St(-2.2)
San Diego St*(+0.7) -24 (-10.3) (-8.3) (-18.7) at San Jose St(-9.6)
Oregon St*(-8.0) +8.5 (+8.6) (+11.6) (+14.4) at California(+0.6)
Stanford(+6.8) +2 (-7.5) (-3.5) (-6.1) at *Washington St(-0.7)
Arizona(+1.8) +7.5 (-0.6) (+2.4) (+11.0) at *USC(+1.2)
S.Florida*(+3.8) -23 (-7.0) (-5.0) (-5.8) at UCONN(-3.2)
_____________________________
* beside team means they won the last meeting.
Format = Away Team(Teams YPP Margin) Spread (YPPM Difference) (HF adv added in) (Strength of schedule added) Home Team(Teams YPP Margin)
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10-30-17 07:10 PM #236
I appreciate your explanation of your format. What equation do you use to add/subtract the numbers together do you can compare with the speed to determine if you have a play?
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10-30-17 11:30 PM #237
K so I'm an idiot. Pick a game and explain a bit more please. I like Ohio State. Notre Dame and Northwestern this week
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10-30-17 11:31 PM #238
And I think Frankie Solich rolls Tuesday night
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10-31-17 12:15 AM #239
I'm taking the gators too
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10-31-17 09:24 AM #240
I have a + or - beside a team that indicates if one of the teams beat the line in all 3 numbers and also won the last match-up. I'll look into those games first. I also make a list of teams that beat all the lines but didn't win the last match-up and look into those next. I also have a few games usually that I just have a strong feeling about that I look into. Usually a certain range of value does better, say 3 to 7 points of value, rather than something that shows double digits value, hence the books usually know stuff we don't. I also pay a lot of attention to line movement and who the public is on because I've seen too much bullshit when on a heavily backed team. Originally Posted by eastvan09
The number with HF adv and SOS adv factored in is usually the most consistent number to go by, but can also be deceiving sometimes. A team can play a tough schedule but still suck against those tough teams. The HF adv I'm giving right now is pretty vanilla, usually I work out a team's real HF adv and factor that in, but so far I have been just using my numbers sparingly.
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10-31-17 09:37 AM #241
Miami,OH(-3.8) NA (+6.5) (+9.5) (+9.8) at *Ohio(+2.7) Originally Posted by shopbar picks
Miami, Oh has a YPP margin on offense and defense of -3.8.
Ohio has a YPP margin on offense and defense of +2.7.
Those are the numbers in () beside the teams.
Add those numbers together to get the +6.5 line.
Add 3 points for Ohio's Home Field, makes it +9.5.
Add the difference is SOS, which is +0.3 for Ohio and you get a final number of +9.8.
So my numbers say Ohio should be favored by -9.8 points, this was before the line was available, but the line is at -9 right now.
The * beside Ohio means they won the last match-up in the series.
For one week sample results of last week.
Teams that beat the line is all of the numbers I had were 12-7 ATS.
Teams that beat the line with the SOS adv line but lost vs the line with HF adv line were 5-1, meaning the SOS line was more reliable.
Teams that won the last match-up were 15-10 ATS.
I didn't track value ranges this week, but I've done plenty of that in the past to know where the edges are, usually in the 3-7 point range.
Points Awarded:
shopbar picks gave FUqer 2 SBR Point(s) for this post.
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10-31-17 09:42 AM #242
I really wanted to take BG tonight, but I was waiting on their two interior linemen injury status's who were questionable and they were downgraded to doubtful yesterday and now the line has went over the key number and BG is heavily backed, so it looks like I'm passing tonight. So far Maryland, Kentucky, Oklahoma, and Wyoming are checking out good and Nevada and Minnesota are teams I have strong feelings about.
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10-31-17 09:52 AM #243
I like Northwestern a little also. Ohio State is really dangerous when they have confidence and finally getting a big win last week should have their confidence sky high. The line is way off from my numbers, but Iowa is one of those teams like Wisconsin in basketball that are hard to cap because their efficient as hell on paper. But watching them, they have a weak pass defense and if OSU runs more of the intermediate crossing routes, instead of those sideline passes, they should be able to expose them at will, mixed in with their good run game. And on offense Iowa is so plain and vanilla, they are hard to watch and that's not going to get the job done against the Buckeyes who have been scoring a lot of points lately. Having said that, I'm sure Iowa will be motivated and there is a slight possibility of a let down for the Buckeyes after that emotional game. If Urban is smart he will beat them by as much as he can though, cuz it might come down to style points at the end of the year and the human polls still take that into effect. Originally Posted by shopbar picks
Notre Dame is for real this year and shouldn't have a problem with Wake Forest.
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10-31-17 11:15 AM #244
Thanks for the thorough explanation. Originally Posted by FUqer
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10-31-17 11:19 AM #245
Excellent, your breakdown helped a lot. Now I fully understand. Originally Posted by FUqer
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