1. #1
    Smutbucket
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    Dapper Dan Picks - NCAAF '17 Season.

    Hello Compadres,

    Back for another season of intense college football handicapping. This will be my 6th year posting my picks with in-depth analysis. I have posted my total record over the last 5 seasons from my threads, you can click on the link or search my username to find threads pertaining to them.

    NCAAF '12 Season: 80-58 (58%) +22.7 units
    NCAAF '13 Season: 96-97 (50%) +11.47 units
    NCAAF '14 Season: 66-86 (43%) -28.6 units
    NCAAF '15 Season: 82-54 (60%) +27.58 units
    NCAAF '16 Season: 65-67 (49%) -5.61 units
    https://www.sportsbookreview.com/for...dan-picks.html

    NCAAF Overall Postings from '12-'16: 389-362 (52%) +27.54 units


    After a slightly losing season this year, Ive decided to crunch the numbers hard core this offseason. Ive done a detailed analysis and grading system of every head coach, offensive and defensive coordinator; which plays a huge role in college handicapping. This thread is free and open for discussion, if anyone sees a strong lean or suggestion, please advise with at least a few sentences as just a "pick" will be ignored.

    I always have a standardized betting unit of 1, with an occasional 2 unit or 1/2 unit bet, but at the end of the season my average bet size will be 1 unit with my max bet being 2 so there will never be insanely large risks that determine the outcome of the season.

    I have most of my write-ups for thursday and friday games almost complete and will be posting in the next day or two, all my lines will be taken from pickmonitor.com,

    Any feedback, ideas, suggestions would be appreciated. I am glad to be apart of the SBR community and hope to see some of the regulars that have frequently visited in years past.

    -Dapper Dan
    Points Awarded:

    AJisKewl gave Smutbucket 2 Betpoint(s) for this post.


  2. #2
    2daBank
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    What's up my dude?? You as jacked up as I am fb finally back!?!? I've already got down on 13 or so plays! Lol. Can't wait to read what you have thus far!!

    BTP
    Week 9
    3-2-0 178 pts

    BTP
    Week 8
    3-2-0 150 pts


  3. #3
    Smutbucket
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    Quote Originally Posted by 2daBank View Post
    What's up my dude?? You as jacked up as I am fb finally back!?!? I've already got down on 13 or so plays! Lol. Can't wait to read what you have thus far!!
    Lol, Hell Ya! All is well, had a rough baseball season but since then Ive been doing pretty well as I found my new gambling niche for the offseason, cryptocurrency ....haha, pretty much heavily into ETHEREUM, and bought in around 150-200, as its my bread and butter but occasionally dabble in some new start up smaller ICOs for a bigger risk/bigger reward but ETH is a workhorse and will steadily climb for the foreseeable future....if anyone fux around with crypto let me know!

    I haven't got too deep into the Saturday matches yet, but already have like 5-6 plays for thursdays and fridays games, which is a lot, lol....Definately pumped and will be heavily studying all season as I don't have as much on my plate this year as years past..... LETS GET IT BROTHER~!

  4. #4
    2daBank
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    I'm pretty proud of most the totals I grabbed last week as most have moved a great deal. a few to the point if they continue to climb a middle may be in order. For the thu/fri I'm on the tOSU/Indy over and the Tulsa/okie st over (hopefully hurricane don't effect this one as that be rough on a 72 over, lol)..

    BTP
    Week 9
    3-2-0 178 pts

    BTP
    Week 8
    3-2-0 150 pts


  5. #5
    Smutbucket
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    Week 1 Writeups

    Thursday (8/31/17):
    Ohio State -21 (-110) Risking 1.1 units to win 1 units
    This is a very interesting matchup as these two teams are familiar with each other and last year’s head coach for Indiana, Kevin Wilson, jumped ship and is now the OC at Ohio State. Ohio State returns Barrett and its leading rusher but loses its Top 3 WR’s. This won’t affect them much as they consistently have the best recruiting classes. Last year they had an inexperienced O-Line that struggled early but now returns with experience and 80 combined starts under their belt. Give Barrett time and he should be able to make plays down the field. Ohio State also returns much of its elite defense and will have one of the nation’s best d-line and line backing core under Greg Schiano. Indiana on the other hand returns its QB, but loses its top RB’s and WR’s. Their O-line is very inexperienced with only 40 starts under their belt and this could cause significant problems against this OSU d-line. This offense will most likely struggle this first season under new HC and OC, Mike Debord, who was recently OC for Tennessee last two seasons where he improved the team’s offense but he had a lot more talent there. Giving us some additional value in this game I believe is the fact that in the last 5 years under Meyer, despite going 5-0 against Indiana, is 0-5 ATS as Indiana has always played them tough. But not this year under the new coaching changes and talent drop-off for Indiana. OSU will look to make a statement early in this Big 10 match-up, that has notoriously been a thorn in their side, being closer games then they really should have been; thanks to Kevin Wilson.

    FIU +16.5 (-110) Risking 1.1 units to win 1 units
    Butch Davis is back Baby! (Miami fan here) He also brings along two above average assistant coaches, Rich Skrosky (OC) and Brent Guy (DC). I have them both rated as “B-“ on my coaching grades as they both have had led successful turn around’s at teams as coordinators but both have had short stints as head coaches where they were not so successful. FIU has the 4th most experienced team returning this season even though last year they were atrocious I think the new coaching will provide a spark and lead to better execution and an improved season. UCF should see a drop off this season as they lost most of their elite defense (4 starters and 40% of total tackles returning) which was ranked 11th last year in yards per play. Their coaching staff is young and inexperienced and although Frost and Chinander had shown early successes, I don’t think they can maintain it given their inexperience. Tory Walters, whose first year as an OC was last year for UCF, ranked 123rd in yards per play. Granted they were dealing with injuries at QB, but McKenzie, who will lead the team this year, is sporadic and prone to turnovers. I think UCF will win but it will be a much closer game than last year’s 39 point blowout. If you can buy the hook and get to 17, that's what I did with my bookie, but pickmonitor.com doesn't allow us handicappers to buy hooks so.


    Buffalo +25 (-110) Risking 1.1 units to win 1 units
    Buffalo returns this season in its 3rd year with Lance Leipold and his elite coaching staff of Division 3 football gurus. He hasn’t performed particularly well but inherited a poor program and spent last year rebuilding with a young team. Dynamic 6’7 Freshman Tyree Jackson returns who got banged up pretty bad last year and missed the last few games (including the 38-0 blowout by PJ Fleck and western Michigan) Their defense is very experienced and should show signs of improvement. On Minnesota side of the ball we have PJ fleck and his OC from Western Michigan bringing an entirely new offense to Minnesota’s typical playing style. They lost starting QB Leidner and are one of the least experienced teams coming back with a 116th experience chart and an O-line that only has 36 starts under their belt. A bigger mystery to this Minnesota team is the hiring of Robb Smith as DC who I have rated as a D+ and one of the worst defensive coordinators. He was the DC for Arkansas the last 3 years where he consistently dropped from ranking 40th in his first year (in ypp), to #88th in ’15, and then finally #122 last year. I think Buffalos offense will be able to keep this one within 25 points given the questionable defense and inexperience of Minnesota as well as dealing with a new coaching staff.



    Friday (9/1/17):

    Boston College -3 (-115) Risking 1.15 units to win 1 units
    If you’ve followed me the last few years you know I love a good defensive team. Boston College troubles me as they have one of the worst offensive coordinators I have ever seen in Scott Loeffler. He is consistently ranked in the bottom 25 in yards per play no matter what program he is at. But being ranked 128th last year, there’s nowhere to go but up. Towles is gone, who was a major problem at Kentucky and BC last season. There are talks of a revamped offense, more up-tempo style, which they implemented a little bit in the bowl game which resulted in a win and 36 points against Maryland. Their O-line is strong and experienced, and their top 6 receivers and top 2 RBs return. They have a QB competition between Darius Wade and Anthony Brown, I hope Brown comes out the victor but either one would be a dual-threat QB that may add some life to their anemic offense last season. Their defense will be on par with last seasons as many return. Northern Illinois should struggle this season as they are ranked 114th in experience chart which never fairs well with a small school and lack of competitive recruiting. Their O-line has 46 starts under their belt and they should struggle with this elite defensive line and line-backing crew of BC. I think BC covers this easily and is due to improve this season.

    Strong Lean/2nd half pick: Rutgers
    Although I have some hesitations to not make this an official pick, Keep your eyes on this game as I will most likely be taking Rutgers in the 2nd half of this game. Why you may ask would I take a team with one of the worst offenses last season against a Washington team that’s coming back almost all in-tact and dominated last season. Because Jerry Kill is back. That’s right, Jerry Kill from Minnesota has returned from retirement. He is one of the most under-rated coaches of all time, and as of ’15, was the number one coach at 2nd half adjustments, compiling a winning % of 67.8% ATS in the 2nd half going 40-19 and +17.26 units. Coincidently so, he is playing against a coach that has one of the worst 2nd half ATS records (pre-2015), Chris Peterson, with a ATS record of 47-56 and 45% and -13.13 units. Which is probably largely due to him not facing competitive teams and bringing in secondary players in blowouts but never the less I like this pick because of Jerry Kill. Not an official pick as all my picks are Full Game Picks/Totals and will not include any 2nd half bets or live bets. If you’re watching the game Friday night and come halftime and you can get atleast 27+ points for full game in the 2nd half, then you should jump on it!

  6. #6
    Smutbucket
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    These are only for thursday/fridays games and Rutgers is not an official pick like I stated.....

    I will be posting the full saturday card sometime friday night or the wee early hours in the morning of saturday as I surely won't be able to sleep as their will be too much excitement, like christmas eve as a child

  7. #7
    Gamblinmann
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    I'm contemplating adding a few more bucks to BC as the more I look at it, the more I like it. Hope you win them all!

  8. #8
    Smutbucket
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    Week 1 Results So far: 2-1 +.9 units (don't count pushes)

    Saturdays Games: (May add something tomorrow)
    Saturday (9/2/17)

    Troy ML (+335) Risking .5 units to win 1.68 units
    Troy +10.5 (-110) Risking 1.1 units to win 1 units
    Troy has the best coaching squad you have never heard of. Neal Brown is at the helm in his first head coaching gig and he has completed quite the turn around. In his first season implementing his new offense, he went 4-8. Last season they quietly improved to 10-3. Neal Brown is an offensive minded coach, who has led offensive turnarounds throughout his career. In í10 he joined Texas Tech who was in the bottom half of offensive yards per play, by his 3rd year he was 10th. At Kentucky he showed a significant improvement in his second year as well dropping them from 114th to 51st. More impressive is their quiet not well known defensive coordinator, Vic Koenning. Every program he has been a part of from Clemson, to Kansas State, to Illinois has shown significant defensive improvement. In í14 Troy was ranked 104th in defensive ypp allowed. In Vicís first year they dropped to 40th, and last year, they dropped to 25th. Their offense returns with a complex air raid scheme, in its 3rd year, with 98% of their total offensive yards gained last year returning. Their defense only returns 6 starters but Vic Koenning should get the job done. On the other side of the ball we have a Boise State who is ranked 119th in experience. Despite returning their starting QB, they only return 58% of their total yards and 40% of their total tackles on defense. Their o-line is inexperienced too with only 40 starts. I love Troy to win outright for a big upset to start week 1, but weíll take the points too.

    Northwestern -24 (-110) Risking 1.1 units to win 1 units

    I love this football program and if you followed me over the years you know Iíve bet them heavily and touted Clayton Thorson two years ago in his freshman year. Theyíre ATS has been 15-9 over the last two seasons and I wish I had bet them more frequently. This is a great opportunity right out the gate against a pee-wee squad under a brand new high school coaching staff. Justin Jackson returns and between him and Thorson, I donít see how this cohesive Northwestern team who returns 9 starters on offense does not put up 35+ points. Last year they struggled early on the season and this great coaching staff should have them pumped and not make the same mistakes they did last season. After the first 4 games, once they got their groove going on offense they averaged 30 ppg. I havenít seen the team totals yet but itís probably a safe bet as well for you action junkies.

    UF +4.5 (-110) Risking 1.1 units to win 1 units

    I keep reading about UF suspensions but besides Scarlett and Calloway all I see is a bunch of backup 3rd stringers on the list. I think thereís way too much public hype around it and the line is moving even more in our favor which I felt was a little skewed before the suspension announcements. McElwain is a proven winner and is entering his 3rd season. In his 3rd season at CSU, he turned around a 3-9 team to a 10-3 team. Randy Shannon is one of the best defensive coordinators of all time has been promoted to defensive coordinator when last year he was just co-DC for UF. (ok Miami bias but you cant deny the domination of the Miami defense from í01-í06) Their OC Nussmeier has worked with the likes of Saban and Sarkisian and led one of the best bama offenses from í12-í13. Their talent has finally developed and they have a new freshman QB with a rocket for an arm. The pieces are in place and I expect this UF team to have its best season yet under McElwain who has gone 19-8 over the last two seasons. Do I need to talk about the lack of experience of Michigan? This will be a close game and Iíll take the 4.5 points.

    FSU +7.5 (-130) Risking 1.3 units to win 1 units

    Too many points to give to the golden boys at Alabama. They are ranked 67th in the experience charts and have lost a good deal of their elite defense. They lost 57% of their total tackles including their top 3 disruptive defensive linemen that accounted for 70% of their sacks and TFLs. Their offense should not be as potent either under new offensive coordinator, Brian Deboll, who has spent relatively no time at the college level and has bounced around as an assistant at various NFL teams for the last 15 years. Jimbo is Jimbo and as much as I hate him heís an offensive mastermind and will be able to keep this game close despite losing Dalvin and their Top WRs. Their defense should be much improved as it almost all returns and it saw significant improvement throughout the season last year. In their first four games (when I was knocking on them hard) they gave up 42.3 ppg, and 475 yards per game. But they made adjustments and ended the season in their last 8 games only allowing 18.5 ppg and 293 ypg and improving themselves to a 27th ranking in opponents yards per play allowing 5 yards per play. Alabama will most likely win, but it will be a close game and buy the hook and feel comfortable worse case we get a backdoor cover. On my bookie I got the 7.5 at -110, but itís worth buying for .20cents and Pickmonitor.com lines are juicing the extra half point.

    South Carolina +5 (-102) Risking 1.02 units to win 1 units

    Muschamp the defensive mastermind is entering his 2nd year and has a quiet undervalued offense. Jake Bentley took off his red-shirt mid-season as they had woes at QB and he immediately provided a spark to the offense. In the first 6 games without him they averaged 16 pts per game. Once he became the starter they score 26.5 ppg, despite playing a UF and Clemson defense that held them to 7 points but tough competition breeds success and they have been battle tested and are returning 10 offensive starters. Their O-Line is experienced and should give Bentley time to get the ball to his play-makers, including their dynamic TE, Hayden Hurst. I expect Muschamps defense to significantly improve which had a lot of injuries last year, and returns key LB Skai Moore. Although NC state returns a very experienced squad and played a tough competitive schedule last season, I think their 8-4 ATS record last season will lead them to be over-valued in lines this year including this game.

    UNC/Cal Under 56.5 (-105) Risking 1.05 units to win 1 units

    We have two typically fast paced quick attack big play explosive offenses going head to head. If you had seen this line last year you would have probably bet the farm on it. But many things have changed for both of these teams during the off-season and I think we can expect a very different outcome. Cal hired defensive minded coach, Justin Wilcox. He has led strong defenses at Boise St, with Chris Peterson, then led to DC jobs at Tennessee, Washington, USC and last yearís dominant Wisconsin D. On offense, they have a new starting QB, only 5 returning starters, and an entirely new offense under a 1st time offensive coordinator, Beau Baldwin, who has had lead a successful stint at the FCS level. On the UNC side we have a new offensive coordinator and good oleí Brandon Harris transferring from LSU. If he couldnít excel at LSU under Cam Cameron and their talent, I doubt he will have much success here at a new program after losing Logan, Hood, and Switzer; three of the most dynamic play-makers on offense.

    Vandy/MTSU Under 58.5 (-105) Risking 1.05 units to win 1 units

    Honestly this line at -3 is a huge head scratcher for me. It screams Vanderbilt and is begging you to take them. They return Shurmur and most of their offense who started to show some life towards the end of last season. But still, Vanderbilt is a control the clock-type slow paced offense. What really makes this under pick intriguing is the addition of new defensive coordinator, Scott Shafer for MTSU. He has a track record of turning around programs with elite defenses and was quoted by Jim Harbaugh in í07 (who hired him as his DC at Stanford that season) as ďone of the most creative and innovative defensive minds in college footballĒ. From í12-í15 he was the HC at Syracuse and struggled, but that seems to be a common occurrence in college football and certain guys are just meant to be coordinators and not run the whole ship. These two teams are very familiar with each others offenses and has almost become a rivalry type game. Despite putting up 71 combined points last season (which is driving up the total), in í15 when they met they had a combined 30 pts.

    Nebraska -14 (-108) Risking 1.08 units to win 1 units

    Mike Riley is entering his 3rd year and is finally getting the pocket passer his offensive style demands. I'm not a big Mike Riley fan, but more exciting than that is the addition of new DC , Bob Diaco. He is one of those defensive elite coordinators that I love to follow. He will revamp this Nebraska defense with a new 3-4 scheme. They have a healthy 14 returning starters, including all 5 starting offensive lineman. Arkansas state on the other side returns 9 starters, and 0 offensive linemen. They have consistently performed well over the last 4 years going 7-5 ATS, but are 4-8 ATS against Non conference teams under Blake Anderson, and 0-2 ATS in the last two season openers against out of conference competition. The line opened at 19 and dropped to 14 which is very strange to me, but I just could not resist as I love watching Diacoís defenses. If it's a trap then I am buying.

  9. #9
    shopbar picks
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    Still the greatest write ups. Love the thread

  10. #10
    bjapp571
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    Awesome info! Thanks for the writeups! Best of Luck!

  11. #11
    HeeluvaGuy
    I'm workin', but I'm not workin' for you
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    Very nice writeups. BOL today and this season!
    175 pts

    3-QUESTION
    SBR TRIVIA WINNER 11/09/2017

    BTP
    Week 7
    4-1-0 149 pts


  12. #12
    Smutbucket
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    Thanks fellas for all the encouraging words! Lets make some money.

    Full Week 1 Card So Far: (All units are 1 bet unless stated otherwise after odds, .5x = 1/2 unit, 2x = 2 units)
    Ohio State -21 (-110) W
    FIU +16.5 (-110) L
    Buffalo +25 (-110) W
    South Carolina +5 (-102)
    Northwestern -24 (-110)
    Troy ML (+335) .5x
    Troy +10.5 (-110)
    FSU +7.5 (-130)
    UF +4.5 (-110)
    Nebraska -14 (-108)
    Vandy/MTSU Under 58.5 (-105)
    UNC/Cal Under 56.5 (-105)

  13. #13
    doubledime
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    Great write ups and outstanding detail. Best of luck this year!

  14. #14
    Smutbucket
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    Week 1 Card:
    Ohio State -21 (-110) W
    FIU +16.5 (-110) L
    Buffalo +25 (-110) W
    South Carolina +5 (-102) W
    Northwestern -24 (-110) L
    Troy ML (+335) .5x L
    Troy +10.5 (-110) L
    FSU +7.5 (-130) L
    UF +4.5 (-110) L
    Nebraska -14 (-108) L

    Vandy/MTSU Under 58.5 (-105) W
    UNC/Cal Under 56.5 (-105) L

    Worst week 1 ever but losing weeks inspire me more to work harder than winning weeks.
    Week 1 Results so far:
    4-8 -4.3 units

    Adding:
    Texas AM / UCLA Under 58 (-110) Risking 1.1 units to win 1 units
    I had this pick week 1 last season. It looked solid but a couple big plays and OT made it go over the total. I love both DC's, entering their 3rd seasons. Texas AM had a great defense early on last year but then got banged up and riddled with injury. Despite losing Garret and Hall, their interior defensive line tackles return and should cause disruption and stop the typically pathetic rushing attack of UCLA. Making a team one dimensional is when Chavis can start to bring pressure and that's something I think the over-rated chosen one struggles with. Starkel looks impressive for A&M in highschool highlight films but with only Kirk returning, it may take time to get on par with his receivers; and tom bradley will surely be bringing the pressure up on a freshman QB.

  15. #15
    Smutbucket
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    Week 1 Results: 4-9 -5.4 units

    Sorry about the poor week 1 fellas. Fortunately a hurricane is headed towards south florida and I was able to put in some extra work this week and am very confident about this card. Lets make some money. discuss if you'd like, Im chilling all night into tomorrow, waiting for the hurricane to come. Thank the Lord its expected to make landfall after all the games finish tomorrow

    Week 2 Write-ups

    Northwestern/Duke Over 55 (-110) Risking 1.1 units to win 1 units
    Last season when these two teams faced off early on in the year both offenses were struggling. Both offenses struggled to run the ball, leading to obvious passing situations and lots of sacks. This season will be different as both QB’s are much more experienced, both are very elusive and can make plays and buy time with their feet. Both offenses have a majority of returning starters and dynamic playmakers like Justin Jackson and Shaun Wilson . What really made me like this pick (opposed to just taking Northwestern -3) is the fact that Northwester’s secondary’s is extremely banged up and a very big weakness of theirs right now. Starting senior CB Keith Watkins II is out for the season, their redshirt freshman backup safety Travis Whillock will be out for this game. Trae Williams who stepped up last season very well at CB (during other starters injuries) is still out indefinitely from Achilles surgery in the offseason and won’t return for a couple weeks. DB’s Brian Bullock, Marcus Shepard, Roderick Campbell, and Alonzo Mayo are all questionable against Duke as they were banged up in last week’s game vs Nevada. I expect Duke to test this wounded secondary given the ineffectiveness of their run game last season and Northwestern will be airing it out as well as Clayton Thorson grew much more comfortable doing so over the course of last season.

    Louisville -9.5 (-110) Risking 1.1 units to win 1 units
    Despite Louisville appearing to have a close game with Purdue last week, the numbers showed Louisville was very dominant. (I did not watch) Louisville defense broke up 8 passes, had 7 QB hurries, 1 forced fumble and 4 sacks. They held Purdue to 51 rushing yards and 2.43 yards per carry. Louisville had 3 fumbles to keep Purdue in this game. Two basically in Purdue’s end zone (1 on the 1 yard line, another on the 2 yard line) and one on their own 26 yard line which led to a quick Purdue TD. I already talked a bit about UNC’s offensive issues last week, not only is their QB terrible but they lost some amazing talent. Not much else needs to be said about this one.

    Wake Forest PK (-110) Risking 1.1 units to win 1 units
    David Clawson is entering his 4th year with Wake Forest. He has led turnarounds in every program he has been a part of (but at much smaller schools), and all of them in their fourth year. Last year he showed significant improvement going from 3-9 in ’15 to 7-6 in ’16. Over the last 2 years his team at Wake was in the Top 10 of youngest underclassmen starters. This year, 95% of their offensive yards from last season are returning, but better than that they have a much better QB Hinton, returning from injury who only played in the first 3 games last season. He is very mobile and I think will present a lot more problems for this BC team than last year when they faced them without him. Wolford struggles with pressure, and BC is a top notch defensive team at bringing it, (and last year they got 4 sacks, broke up 6 passes, and caused 2 INTs against Wolford) but they won’t be able to do that against a dynamic playmaking QB like Hinton. Wake Forest pulls out the victory this week and what may even be a blowout.

    Nebraska +14 (-110) Risking 1.1 units to win 1 units
    Had this game circled when line opened at Nebraska +10, went back to look and saw them +14 and had to jump on it as my first pick of the week. Not sure what constitutes such a high line from an Oregon team that was 4-8 SU and 2-7 ATS. Sure we have new HC Willie Taggart, but this is not the Sun Belt or the AAC conference, in his first two years of his program turnarounds in those conferences, he went 2-10 at WKU, and USF, no reason to believe this year will be remarkably better given the execution on defense last year. Tanner Lee looked real good in his opener for Nebraska. He keeps his cool under pressure in the pocket and his experience shows. He takes a lot of risks into tight windows but has some incredible arm strength and zip to his throws to negate some of that risk. Nebraska was a couple inches away from blowing that game wide open last weekend against Arkansas State. Last drive they played prevent defense in order to give them the backdoor cover. Worst case scenario with a spread of this size we get the back-door in our favor this time but I think this will be a close 1 TD game.

    UGA +4.5 (-110) Risking 1.1 unit to win 1 units
    I’m more confident with this pick now that Eason is out. I never liked him and felt he could never handle pressure very well. Despite a weak o-line which has been typical of UGA the last two seasons, Fromm stepped up and made some big throws in the face of pressure. This line is a bit puzzling, I know Notre Dame is constantly over-valued but have odds-makers really forgotten how terrible this defense was last year? How they went 4-8, and gave up 4.1 yards per carry last season on defense. I keep hearing about their offensive line (because 4 return I guess?) and their run game, but let’s remind ourselves that this offensive line was also ranked 95th in adjusted sack rate (with a Deshon Kizer) last season. They ran for 400 yards against Temple week 1 who just looked freaking awful. This will be a low scoring affair but I think UGA pulls out the win but let’s take the 4.5 points.

    Auburn +5 (-110) Risking 2.2 units to win 2 units
    Last year when Clemson faced Auburn in the first game of the season, Auburn was still figuring out their offense and QB situation. Three different QBs took snaps in that game and despite poor QB play they still covered the 8 point spread. This year they have a clear cut starter, Stidham, who has a rocket for an arm, and experience and poise in the pocket who understands not to stare down his receivers like Jeremy Johnson. A massive downhill running back like Pettiway is just what this offense needs alongside its explosive deep-ball passer. I’ve been hearing a lot of media talks about how a pocket passer doesn’t fit into Guz Malzahns offense but Gus no longer calls the plays, Chip Lindsey does. Chip Lindsey is questionable coming from ASU last year but a lot of his offensive woes are surrounded by the fact that ASU started 5-1 last year before losing 3 QBs to injury and having an atrocious defense. Lindsey’s coaching talents can be best recognized for what he did with QB Nick Mullens at Southern Miss from ’14-’15. He took a Nick Mullens ( a much less skilled QB than Stidham) and developed him from 6.4 yards per attempt in ’13 pre-Lindsey, to 8.6 yards per attempt in 2015 and Conference USA 2015 player of the year and ranking the entire offense 11th in ypp. He already has developed talent; he and Malzahan will integrate that talent into an explosive offense this season. Their defense should be stout under Kevin Steele’s 2nd year who already made significant improvement to this defense in his first year despite being riddled with injuries in the 2nd half of last year’s season. Clemson will be breaking in a new QB of course and although they will be tough this season I see Auburn winning this game outright and instead of fiddling around with a ML, I’ll just safely take the +5 for the season’s first top-rated 2 unit pick!

    South Carolina +3 (-115) Risking 1.15 units to win 1 units
    I like this South Carolina team a lot under starting QB Jake Bentley. He has that moxie in the pocket and is able to deliver big throws in tough situations. Last week South Carolina beat a very tough and experienced NC state team. Missouri put up an impressive 72 points last week, but was to a Missouri State team and gave up 43 points of their own. South Carolina won this match up last year and they have the recipe for success against this Missouri team. Control the clock, slow down the game, and don’t make mistakes. That’s exactly what they did last year when they possessed the ball for 60% of the game last season and forced 3 turnovers out of Missouri. I’m always the type to take points with a better defense and we undeniable have a much better defensive squad here at South Carolina.

    Utah -1 (-110) Risking 1.1 units to win 1 units
    BYU is a team I’ve had circled all season to have a significant drop off this season and I am kicking myself for not fading them the last two weeks. Gone are the days of Bronco Mendenhall, Taysom Hill and Jamall Williams. Last year they had a turnover margin of +1.2 per game, showing significant breaks and more reason for them to drop off this season. Mangum has hard starting experience but is merely good at throwing up hail marys for 6’7 WR’s that are long gone as well. Utah’s program is always a defensive powerhouse under HC Kyle Whittingham, but interesting changes have been made to this offense during the offense. Troy Taylor, new OC, will be installing his new up-tempo spread attack, very different the many years of I-form pro-style football Utah is accustomed to. Last year Troy Taylor was the play-caller for Eastern Washington, who set two FCS records last year for total passing yards and total offensive yards in a season. Despite this being a rivalry game, I doubt BYU will have schemed much to defend this new offense coming into their 3rd game. Sophomore QB Tyler Huntley stole the starting role from Troy Williams, and they have lots of new dynamic play-makers like Darren Carrington II who came over from Oregon. This will be a fun game to watch but I think Utah pulls out the win.

  16. #16
    Smutbucket
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    Eyeing a couple late nighters

    Full Card For Simplicity:
    Week 1 Results: 4-9 -5.4 units

    Week 2:
    Northwestern/Duke Over 55 (-110)
    Louisville -9.5 (-110)
    Wake Forest PK (-110)
    Nebraska +14 (-110)
    UGA +4.5 (-110)
    Auburn +5 (-110) 2x
    South Carolina +3 (-115)
    Utah -1 (-110)

  17. #17
    doubledime
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    As always, great analysis BOL today

  18. #18
    2daBank
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    It appears Nebraska ugly defensive showing last week was not a fluke, they looking mizzou putrid as ducks have scoreboard looking like pinball machine. Lol

    BTP
    Week 9
    3-2-0 178 pts

    BTP
    Week 8
    3-2-0 150 pts


  19. #19
    Smutbucket
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    Week 2 results : 7-1 with one loss being my top rated pick 😔 Had a bad feeling when we couldn't punch it in from the one yard line we weren't going to cover and that was the difference maker. Once venables realized stidham couldn't handle pressure it got dialed up resulting in 11 sacks . Throw the fricking ball dude . I thought Brad kaaya was the all time worst sack taker but sitdham proved him wrong yesterday. Really pissed because I had an 8 team parlay with all my picks and bought some points for every game and bought auburn to 7.5 ....but I guess Im not supposed to be mad going 7-1

    Season back on track now, next week we get in the green.
    Season YTD: 11-10 -0.6 units

    Had a late start to the week as the hurricane set south Florida into anarchy . Fortunately my power and internet only went out for 12 hours but most of the area still doesn't have power and people are getting crazy . Time to hunker down and study the card .

  20. #20
    Gamblinmann
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    Quote Originally Posted by Smutbucket View Post
    Week 2 results : 7-1 with one loss being my top rated pick  Had a bad feeling when we couldn't punch it in from the one yard line we weren't going to cover and that was the difference maker. Once venables realized stidham couldn't handle pressure it got dialed up resulting in 11 sacks . Throw the fricking ball dude . I thought Brad kaaya was the all time worst sack taker but sitdham proved him wrong yesterday. Really pissed because I had an 8 team parlay with all my picks and bought some points for every game and bought auburn to 7.5 ....but I guess Im not supposed to be mad going 7-1

    Season back on track now, next week we get in the green.
    Season YTD: 11-10 -0.6 units

    Had a late start to the week as the hurricane set south Florida into anarchy . Fortunately my power and internet only went out for 12 hours but most of the area still doesn't have power and people are getting crazy . Time to hunker down and study the card .
    Most excellent capping week for you.

  21. #21
    ZINISTER
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    Indeed! Very Nice!

  22. #22
    xgutz8611
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    Great picks and all around Analysis!!!

  23. #23
    Smutbucket
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    Thanks for all the kind words fellas. You all inspire me to work harder and provide better analysis.
    Points Awarded:

    RavensFan2k3 gave Smutbucket 1 Betpoint(s) for this post.


  24. #24
    Smutbucket
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    Week 3 Write Ups:

    Connecticut +10.5 (-110) Risking 1.1 units to win 1 units
    The Bob Diaco experiment as head coach for UConn has finally ended. During his stretch over the last 3 years, UConn surmounted a league worst 8-27 ATS record. When a team is consistently overvalued/undervalued for a few years, the odds makers tend to make adjustments based on the betting public and I think UConn can have a winning ATS record this season despite being abysmal the last few seasons for this very reason. In steps a very capable, and hopefully program reinvigorating Randy Edsall; who coached as HC for UConn from ’99-’10 where he recorded a 74-70 record. More impressive are his two coordinators, Rhett Lashlee on offense and Billy Crocker on defense. Rhett Lashlee is a disciple of Gus Malzahn and had been there with him at Arkansas State and for the last 3 years at Auburn, he was a Broyles Award finalist in ’13. He should install a completely new offense that will be very different than the Uconn you’ve seen the last few years. Billy Crocker is not a well known defensive coordinator because this is his first season at the FBS level. For the past 12 years he has worked his way up through the ranks of FCS school , Villanova, where he installed one of the best FCS defenses during his tenure as defensive coordinator from ’12-’16. On the other side we have a struggling Bronco Mendenhall with his coaching entourage. Although proven to be a great recruiter at BYU, it’s clear his team has been struggling over the last two games. They have yet to crack 100 yards rushing in each of their first two games, averaging a terrible 2.58 yards per carry. Their passing game is almost as bad, despite giving up 0 INTS and 4 TDs, they have only averaged 4.9 yards per attempt. These stats are from their two games against William&Mary and Indiana. UConn played one game against a terrible Holy Cross where they struggled in the beginning but came back from behind and won. They had an extra week off to prepare as their game last weekend was canceled. I think this is a close one-possession type game.

    UCLA -2.5 (-120) Risking 1.2 units to win 1 units
    Sorry No write-up. Hectic week. Take my word.

    UF/Tennessee Under 48.5 (-102) Risking 1.02 units to win 1 units
    I have these two teams with some of the highest rated defensive coordinators and struggling offenses. On Tennessee’s side we have Bob Shoop (A- rating) that has worked with Rich Franklin at Vanderbilt and Penn State and built some consistent top 20 defenses. He improved the Tennessee defense significantly last year and is entering his second year as DC. Florida has Randy Shannon who I’ve talked about in the past and is rated at A+. (Go canes). These two teams hate each other and have this game circled every year. Even though the last two seasons they have been higher scoring affairs, I think this one returns to the norm hard fought low-scoring defensive matchup in the SEC. Florida has yet to score an offensive TD and will most likely have many suspensions that are more evident on offense and Tennessee is breaking in a new young inexperienced QB at the swamp. The best game total handicapper BiffTFinancial has this game for 1 unit and that was enough to solidify this as my one total pick for the week.

    Missouri -7 (-115) Risking 1.15 units to win 1 units
    I’m not buying into the Purdue hype. I’ve watched both their games and Louisville shot themselves in the foot with 3 turnovers in crucial moments and Ohio University was just awful last week. Ohio had open receivers they missed and many blown coverage’s on defense. Purdue may have a good QB but their receivers drop A LOT of passes. Mainly I do not think they have the speed to compete with this Missouri team as I expect lots of big plays on Missouri’s side. Odom taking over the defense seems to be a positive shift and I think last week’s loss to South Carolina was more of showing of how great a team South Carolina is, rather than the common over-reaction narrative I’ve been hearing through various media outlets; Missouri is awful. I think we cover 7 easily.

    Vanderbilt +3.5 (-105) Risking 1.05 units to win 1 units
    Their offense returns 9 starters and showed significant improvement over the course of last season. Shurmur has really developed and has his entire receiving corps back and Ralph Webb has emerged as a powerful and speedy running back that averaged 5.1 yards per carry last season. Their offensive coordinator is very experienced as well and is in his 3rd year after leading a Wisconsin team in ’13 and ’14 that were ranked 7th and 8th in yards per play under his coordination. Derek Masons defenses are always well coached and sure tacklers and showed significant improvement since he took over the coordinating duties in ’15. Bill Snyder is a legendary coach and this is very strong Kansas State team but they thrive in a weak Big 12 conference and do not play the level of competition this Vanderbilt team does. In his last 8 years since his return to Kansas State, Snyder is 14-18 ATS against Non-Conference opponents, which probably includes a lot of shitty teams, like their first two opponents Central Arkansas and Charlotte. I think Vanderbilt will slow this offense down like the majority of the strong defensive units KSU played last season (I know very scarce in the Big 12). I think this will be a back and forth, close game and feel safe taking the points with a Vanderbilt team that feels undervalued here. I actually snagged this at 4.5 with my personal bookie as well but use pickmonitor for my official lines.

    Louisville +3 (-105) Risking 1.05 units to win 1 units
    These are two teams that I closely follow and have talked about both teams. Clemson’s rookie QB made some great throws but all in all their offense was not that impressive. Their defense although achieving 11 sacks was more of a sign of hesitant and inexperienced Stidham than an ultra-dominant defense. They surely won’t be doing that in this game. We get a revenge game at home with a few points and if there is anyone who circles and preps for revenge games its Petrino who is 11-6 ATS in revenge games during this current term at Lousiville.

    Cincinnati +5 (-105) Risking 1.05 units to win 1 units
    Upon initial review of these two teams, Miami of Ohio looks like an intriguing pick. They “made NCAAF history” for winning their final 6 games last year after losing their opening 6. To top that off they are one of the most experienced teams returning with 17 starters. But upon further inspection it’s not all that impressive, given that only 1 of their last 7 teams they played even had a winning record last season and they had a combined 35% winning %. This is a non conference rivalry of sorts as both teams have played each other every year since 1909. They have always been close games but there are a few reasons to like Cincinnati this year. First off, their coaching staff, is all new and greatly improved with Luke Fickell as head coach; who is an Urban Meyer disciple and has been their DC over last 5 seasons at Ohio State. Mike Denbrock came over as OC from Notre Dame who has led a very potent offense with Brian Kelly over there for the last few years. Their DC is not well accredited but Fickell provides more than enough accreditation for him. How they got this fantastic coaching staff, I am not quite sure. What’s really giving us value in this game is a closer look at the betting trends between these two teams. Miami of Ohio is 4-0 in its last 4 ATS vs Cincinnati. Last year, Miami of Ohio, was 9-3 ATS while Cincinnati was 3-8 ATS. To Joe Public, these are reasons to take Miami of Ohio, but to the experienced gambler we know this is a sign of correction occurring in Vergas’s valuations of these teams and the coaching changes in Cincinnati is enough to bump this into 1 unit play material.

    California +3.5 (-107) Risking 1.07 units to win 1 units
    It’s rare for me to take a PAC 12 team vs a SEC team, but this is one I definitely like. Ole Miss defense looks especially awful despite playing South Alabama and Tenn.-Martin its first two games it has given up 4.8 yards per rush. They had 24 missed tackles against the FCS team Tenn.-Martin last week. Their offense is also one-dimensional, only achieving 3.32 yards per carry and a total of 156 rushing yards in its first two “challenging” games. The loss of Hugh Freeze is evident and Matt Luke is merely a interim head coach in what surely should be another poor season for Ole Miss who only won 5 games last season with their atrocious defense despite having Chad Kelly and that amazing WR corps. I already talked about Cal’s coaching changes that look promising after the first two weeks and upsetting a UNC team. I think Cal wins this game in what most likely will be a shootout but Cal pulls away in the 2nd half as the Cal defense starts to adapt to the one-dimensional offense of Ole Miss. I got this one at 4.5 too with my bookie but will take the 3.5.

  25. #25
    Smutbucket
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    Full card:

    Week 2 Results: 7-1 +4.8 units
    Season Results: 11-10 -0.6 units

    Week 3:
    Connecticut +10.5 (-110)
    UCLA -2.5 (-120)
    UF/Tennessee Under 48.5 (-102)
    Missouri -7 (-115)
    Vanderbilt +3.5 (-105)
    Louisville +3 (-105)
    Cincinnati +5 (-105)
    California +3.5 (-107)

  26. #26
    Smutbucket
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    Week 3 Results: 4-4 -.5 units
    Season Results: 15-14 -1.1 units

    Week 4 Writeups: (MORE TO COME TOMORROW NIGHT OR SATURDAY MORNING)

    Thursday 9/21/17:
    South Florida -20.5 (-110) Risking 1.1 units to win 1 units
    I’ve been eyeing this Temple team ever since I watched their first game against Notre Dame. Their team is freaking awful. I regret not taking the two big dogs they played the last two weeks in Villanova and UMass, I just couldn’t bring myself to pull the trigger on the FCS team or UMass. Their biggest weakness is their run defense and tackling, as Notre Dame made it evident by running for 422 yards and averaging 9.59 yards per carry against them. Their run game is just as bad on offense, as they were only able to gain 2.89 yards per carry against their 3 shitty opponents. This plays right into USF’s favor as they are a run-oriented team, running the ball 68% of the time and averaging almost 5 yards per rush. Their defense has only allowed 3.3 yards per rush. This will be blowout and USF should steamroll a Temple team who is in shambles after losing a majority of their starters and coaching staff last season. Temple will be a good team to fade all season as they were heavily undervalued last year going 11-2 ATS and 9-5 ATS in 2015, but that was a completely different team.

    Friday 9/22/17:
    Utah -3 (-125) Risking 1.25 units to win 1 units
    I really like what I see from this Utah team this season. Their QB Huntley is a playmaker and their offense leaves defenses scurrying as they are not accustomed to this style of offensive play out of Utah. He is quick, mobile, and accurate thus far, completing 72% of his passes. Rich Rodriguez’s wildcats have been on the decline the last 3 years and I think this coaching staff is on their way out after this season. Rodriguez’s spread run oriented offense has been struggling and will continue to do so against this Utah front that has not allowed an opponent to gain more than 63 yards in a game all season. They are allowing 1.66 yards per carry in their first 3 games. These two teams are very familiar with each other and 2nd year defensive coordinator Morgan Scalley, did an efficient job of shutting down Arizona run game last year holding them to 127 rushing yards last season. Utah won the game soundly 36-23 and I expect this game to be an even larger blowout.

    Saturday 9/23/17:
    Vanderbilt +18.5 (-110) Risking 1.65 units to win 1.5 units
    No surprise here as I have been touting this improved Vanderbilt team. Some other things to mention about their superb defense thus far, they have 28 tackles for loss in their first 3 games. They are ranked 3rd in defensive passing efficiency and sporting a 10.61 sack % (ranked 11th) . They have broken up 19 passes and have the 2nd highest passes defended to incompletion ratio. Alabama relies on the big play, but Vanderbilt has only allowed 1 play of more than 25+ yards on defense this season; and a highly touted Alabama defense has allowed 6 plays of 25+ yards already. Alabama defense is banged up , with 6 LBs on their injury report, and 2 being knocked out for the season in the beginning of this month. Their defensive line is nowhere near what it was last year as I already talked about having lost their top 3 defensive lineman and 70% of their sacks and TFLs. Their defensive line is currently ranked 88th in sack % at 3.45% and a staggeringly bad 3.2% on passing downs, ranked 114th. (Vanderbilt has yet to even allow a sack on a passing down) Vanderbilt is healthy and I think will catch Alabama by surprise who has played very inferior offenses and defenses this season then Vanderbilt. I think giving us some value in this game is Vanderbilt’s reputation in seasons past to struggle against Top 25 teams, but like I said before this is a different Vanderbilt team. Let’s make this a 1.5 unit play.

    Michigan State +4 (-110) Risking 1.1 units to win 1 units
    It’s no secret I am not a fan of this Notre Dame team. Their QB Winbush can’t throw an accurate ball 10 yards down the field and has one of the lowest passing efficiency ratings ranking 124th. They have been relying on running the ball the last few games (against UGA got stuffed but used refs to stay in the game) but I don’t think they will have any success against this Michigan state team who held Notre Dame to 2.28 yards per rush last season and 57 total rushing yards. They dominated the line of scrimmage last year in their matchup and no reason to believe this year will be any different. They will force their horrid QB to throw the ball but Michigan State passing defense seems up to par with D’Antonios usual standards as they are ranked #2 in defensive passing efficiency. Their defense on a whole has been showing up (although against weak competition) ranking in the top 10 in success rate, isoPPP, Field position, and finishing drives. They have not allowed a first down on 3rd or 4th down with two or less yards to go, ranking them 1st in the nation in power success rate. They have only allowed opponents to convert on 11% of 3rd downs, ranking them 2nd in the nation on defense and are converting 50% of their 3rd downs, ranking them 16th on offense. Lewerke is a great mobile QB who can throw the ball and would have taken over the starting role last year but got injured during the season. D’Antonio had an off year last year mainly due to injury, but I expect him to have this team extremely focused and regain its footing amongst the best of the BIG 10. D’ Antonio is a top notch coach with a record to prove it and his 3-9 season last year was an anomaly.

  27. #27
    Smutbucket
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    Good Start to the week fellas going 2-0, + 2 units, making us 17-4 and +.9 units for the season


    Week 4 Additions:

    Maryland -3.5 (-110) Risking 1.1 units to win 1 units
    This Maryland team is very impressive and I had them pegged before the season to have a great year depended on their QB play but I was hesitant to take them with Pigrome at the helm week 1 vs Texas. Fortunately Pigrome got injured, turning the reigns over to Kasim Hill who has proven efficient but against soft opponents. I think this UCF defense is soft and think having two weeks off will be detrimental to their production and will struggle keeping up with the speed of Maryland. UCF offense looked impressive week 1 but it was against a joke of a FIU defense. They still allowed 8 TFLs and gave up 9 penalties. UCF is one of these teams that have yet to prove they can hang around with the power 5 conferences. Historical numbers don’t hold much value but I think it should be noted that UCF is 6-42 against power 5 schools, including 0-2 last season against the BIG 10, where Maryland won by 6 in OT at UCF. I have this Maryland team taking a big step up this year while UCF will be knocked down a peg so I think we have no problem covering the 3.5 at home this year.

    Kentucky +2 (-110) Risking 1.1 units to win 1 units
    Kentucky has been dominated in this rivalry but there are some obvious reasons to take Kentucky this time around. For one let’s talk about the UF injuries, as if their 8 suspensions which mainly affects their offense was not enough to slow them down, their defense has been very banged up the last few weeks. Starting linebacker Kylan Johnson is doubtful as well as starting corner Duke Dawson. That leaves their defense lacking 3 starters that were coming into the season and their depth is severely hindered. They gave up 5.55 yards per carry to Tennessee last week which was an emotional battle that won with a last second hail mary. Kentucky is coming off a big upset win at a very tough South Carolina team where they held their potent offense in check. They ran the ball effectively and controlled the clock. Starting QB Johnson showed poise in the pocket and the ability to make plays with his legs when things broke down. More impressive is their defense under new DC, Matt House. They’ve held opponents to 2.19 yards per carry on the season and haven’t let them break 62 yards in a game. They have allowed 0 big rushing plays over 20+ yards and have allowed only 4 over 10 yards. This is definitely one of those lines that are based on years past performance and not so much this years. UF has played a tougher schedule and has a long run of tough games and last week was a huge rivalry game and Kentucky may be a little overlooked due to last year’s game. Stats in this matchup from 3 years ago are negligible, and 5 years even more so; don’t fall into the trap that Kentucky always loses to UF and think that their matchup 10 years ago has any effect or foretelling implication on the outcome of this game. UF has just had a much better program over the years but things are balancing in the SEC. Follow the coaches and neither coach was part of their program 5 years ago.

    Duke ML (-133) Risking 1.33 units to win 1 units
    Already watched a lot of these two teams and have talked about them both. Duke gave up a couple big plays to Baylor last week that kept it near the spread but still covered depending on the line you got. UNC beat down on a soft Old Dominion team that I am regretting not having bet. This should be a high scoring game but I like Duke to pull out the W in the end. Anyone else see this UNC injury report?

    Michigan/Purdue Under 51.5 (-110) Risking 1.1 units to win 1 units
    I was very tempted to take Michigan with the points but figure the under is a safer bet. I’m still not buying the Purdue hype, upsetting a Missouri team is not that impressive. Purdue’s offense relies on the trick play, the misdirection, the blown assignments, which works great against the Ohio’s and Missouri’s of college football but will not happen against this Michigan team. Michigan first of all will whip this team at the line of scrimmage, not allowing most of their misdirection to develop. When they do manage to get enough time off to get their trick plays off do not expect this well coached Michigan team to have any blown coverage’s like Ohio and Missouri did many times. I stuck with the under because this Michigan team’s offense has been atrocious. Their stats do not show it entirely but they are relying on the big play and Speight is just too slow and not athletic enough to run a successful offense. Think this game stays well under the total as long as Michigan doesn’t put up 35 themselves.

    UCLA +7 (-107) Risking 1.07 units to win 1 units
    I think I’m just still pissed off from last year’s bad beat in this game. Last year UCLA led and had control for most of the game before giving up 16 in the 4th qtr including a last second fumble into the end zone. Hopefully the chosen one has learned from his mistakes and won’t try to make some incredible throw into pressure and tight coverage costing us the win like he has so many times before late in games. Giving us value is the fact that UCLA is 5-10 ATS from ’16 season and I think worst case scenario we get a backdoor cover with Shaw’s conservative play calling and UCLAs ability to air it out.

  28. #28
    doubledime
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    Best of luck today Dan. I see we match on a couple of plays. As always, great write ups.

  29. #29
    Smutbucket
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    Thanks DD, Lets get it. Always good to see when were in agreement.

    Week 4 Full Card:
    South Florida -20.5 (-110) W
    Utah -3 (-125) W
    Vanderbilt +18.5 (-110) 1.5x
    Michigan State +4 (-110)
    Kentucky +2 (-110)
    Maryland -3.5 (-110)
    Duke ML (-133)
    Michigan/Purdue Under 51.5 (-110)
    UCLA +7 (-107)

  30. #30
    Smutbucket
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    Week 4 Results: 5-4 +.08 units


    Season Results: 20-18 -1.02 units



    More Picks will be released tomorrow morning.



    Duke +7 (-130) Risking 1.3 units to win 1 units

    Miami fan here taking the opposite side with the points. Been watching and riding this Duke team all season and no reason to stop here. Duke defense has been legit. They are allowing just 2.9 yards per carry ranking 15th in the nation, against a higher than average SOS. They are averaging a 10% sack% ranking 11th, and Miami has played only two games against awful teams and as a result are ranked 1st in the nation in yards per carry but is about to get a wakeup call for their offense when their rushing attack isnít so successful. Most of their eye-popping stats so far this season should be taken with a grain of salt factoring their horrible SOS and 2 game sample size. I see a lot of the computers showing Miami to win by 10+ but I donít think they weigh in strength of schedule as much as they should and the only 2 game sample size for Miami is misleading them. Sure the line is a little suspicious but I think itís more indicative of heavily bet markets. Just like the LSU/Miss State game, which made absolutely zero freaking sense to me and I laid off it despite thinking Miss. State would cover easily and possibly win, sometimes lines seem extremely odd by the numbers but in reality are reflections of their betting markets. Sometime we put on tinfoil hats and overthink them as trap games but I donít think this is one of those situations.



    BYU -1 (+102) Risking 1 unit to win 1.02 units

    BYU is coming off a much needed bye week after playing one of the toughest 3 game stretches to open up the season between LSU, Utah, and Wisconsin; all top 25 teams. Mangum is injured but his backup Beau Hoge is a great athlete and I think his ability to buy time in the pocket will be beneficial to this offense and receivers who are struggling to get separation. BYU offense has some terrible numbers but considering their opposition this last month itís understandable and expect them to breakout against a Utah State defense that is ranking 102nd in yards per pass, and 85th in yards per rush, despite having played some weak opponents. This BYU team, as per usual of their program, is only allowing 35 penalty yards per game (ranked 15th), which this Utah State team is almost doubling at 64 penalty yards per game. In last yearís matchup, BYU outgained Utah State in yardage 355 to 200 and controlled the clock for 36 minutes despite making costly turnovers, they won easily by 18 points. Utah State has been implementing a new up-tempo offense under new OC David Yost, that could spell trouble if they arenít clicking early as BYU will try to control the clock again. I think this year will be similar outcome as BYU is in a position for a much-needed win and coming off their bye week. Last year, coming off their bye, BYU won their remaining last 5 games of the season.



    USC -3.5 (-110) Risking 1.1 units to win 1 units

    Not a big PAC 12 guy here but I like this game for a few reasons. Mainly, USC has had one of the toughest SOS to date, while Washington State has had one of the weakest. Washington Stateís offense is as one-dimensional as you get averaging a FBS worst 1.8 yards per carry and rushing the ball less than 30% of the time. This should spell trouble against an athletically superior team in USC who will be dialing up the pressure, like Boise State did racking up 5 sacks against Washington State. Washington State is also ranked 117th in TFL allowed as a team, giving up 7.75 TFL per game. USCís pass defense is no slouch either, ranking 21st in defensive passing efficiency rating. USCs stud RB, Ronald Jones should be back and help ignite this offense against a typically poor Washington state defense. I like the fact that this USC team is 1-3 ATS, which is giving us some value and going on the road to a usually tough place to play in Washington State, but I think we dominate here.



    Vanderbilt +10 (-110) Risking 1.1 units to win 1 units

    Been on Vanderbilt train all season, no reason not to like them in this matchup. Sure they got walloped by Alabama but made some dumb mistakes, which led to the blowout. May even sprinkle some on the ML.

  31. #31
    RavensFan2k3
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    As a Miami fan and alumni, hate to agree with you on that Duke play

  32. #32
    Smutbucket
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    Quote Originally Posted by RavensFan2k3 View Post
    As a Miami fan and alumni, hate to agree with you on that Duke play
    I see it as a winner either way, but will be a great night if Miami squeaks out a close one

    I think I'm like 2-10 betting on Miami games the last few years , as it's always difficult to evaluate teams your emotionally tied to

  33. #33
    Smutbucket
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    Some Rough Losses again last night plagued with injuries. The breaks will soon start to roll our way. Confident we win back our losses from last night and then some.

    Week 5 Saturday Card:
    Vanderbilt +10 (-110) Risking 1.1 units to win 1 units
    Vandy ML (+295) Risking .5 units to win 1.48 units
    Been on Vanderbilt train all season, no reason not to like them in this matchup. Sure they got walloped by Alabama but made some dumb mistakes, which led to the blowout. May even sprinkle some on the ML.

    Arkansas -17 (-110) Risking 1.1 units to win 1 units
    Numbers don’t always tell tell the whole story especially early on in the season. If you look at Arkansas’s yards per play on defense it looks atrocious but that was against Texas A&M and TCU. New Mexico States numbers look pretty good but against a much weaker SOS. Arkansas’s offense really started to establish itself last week with Austin Allen and their stable of effective running backs. Giving us the real value in this game are the skewed SOS numbers and the fact that Arkansas is 0-3 ATS and New Mexico State is 4-0 ATS.

    South Carolina +8 (-110) Risking 1.1 units to win 1 units
    South Carolina/TexAM Over 49 (-107) Risking 1.07 units to win 1 units

    After losing to Kentucky and squeaking a win out last week against Louisana Tech, I think were getting great value in this game. The public has lost hope in this South Carolina team since the loss of Deebo Samuel but Bentley is dynamic enough and this Texas A&M defense is poor enough to keep us in this at least for a backdoor cover at this number. Texas A&M defense is giving up one of the league worst, 12 passes of 25+ yards, and 32 passes of 15+ yards, which plays into the strength of this South Carolina team. Their offense, which has typically been explosive in years past, has struggled as it breaks in a rookie QB. This Texas A&M market seems to be much more heavily bet then this South Carolina team in this matchup as the last two years Texas A&M has been heavy favorites but has not covered In the last two years.

    Troy +21 (-110) Risking 1.1 units to win 1 units
    I talked a lot about this Troy team and their great coaching staff week 1 and we had a rough loss to Boise State by a Ĺ point after some bad breaks in the game. Since then Troy has gone 0-4 ATS, which I suspected the cat was out of the bag for them being undervalued after last years season. This presents a good opportunity now though against an over valued power 5 conference team in LSU. LSU is routinely overhyped and their coaching staff this year is rated very low in my grading system.

    FSU -7 (-105) Risking 1.05 units to win 1 units
    A winless Florida State team comes into an undefeated Wake Forest; a headline you wouldn’t expect coming into week 5. Last week’s as it was apparent with most of the Florida teams, having week 2 and 3 off in college football while other teams are improving their play is a huge detriment to their football programs. But most of the Florida teams seemed to shake off the rust and improve in the 2nd half of their games, something Jimbo is a master at anyways. This is a huge game for FSU as they will want to dominate from the start and not fall behind like it has been typical of their program recently. Wake Forest is experienced but they will be

    Tennessee Team Total Under 19.5 (-110)
    Kirby Smart and this UGA defense is for real.

    Air Force/New Mexico Under 50.5 (-110) Risking 1.1 units to win 1 units
    Air Force runs the ball 86% of the time, 4th in the nation. New Mexico runs the ball 67% of the time, 13th in the nation. Both teams like to play the time of possession game with New Mexico ranking 14th possessing the ball for 58% of games. Air Force has possessed the ball for 52% of games, ranking 46th; but only runs 63.5 plays per game, ranking 114th. The clock will continue to roll in this game. Both teams have struggled to convert on 3rd downs, ranking in the bottom 25% of all FBS teams in conversion % and struggle to get into the endzone, also ranking in the bottom 25%.

    Full CARD:

    Week 5:
    Duke +7 (-130) L
    BYU -1 (+102) L
    USC -3.5 (-110) L
    Vanderbilt +10 (-110)
    Vanderbilt ML (+295) .5x
    Arkansas -17 (-110)
    Tennessee Team Total Under 19.5 (-110)
    FSU -7 (-105)
    South Carolina +8 (-110)
    South Carolina/TexAM Over 49 (-107)
    AirForce/NM Under 50.5 (-110)
    Troy +21 (-110)

  34. #34
    2daBank
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    Certainly think arky scores at will today, wouldn't be surprised if nmst put up some points as well, kinda like over there and ultimately razorbacks should wear them down.

    I think as much as lines changing on Troy games they just haven't scored like last season, I think they down nearly 10 ppg from last year if memory serves me right?

    Not really on or against any of yours today, hope you crush it bro! Gl

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  35. #35
    2daBank
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    Good job getting that good number with razorbacks, think I saw they closed at 18.5 which would have been a loss!!

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