1. #1
    BigdaddyQH
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    Michigan-Florida Odds

    Michigan has been a 4 point favorite over Florida for quite a while now. The line has not moved in most shops in Vegas at all. The same holds true for most off shore books. Now here is the thing that rather amazes me. Florida lost their best defensive player, Senior Safety Marcell Harris, for the entire season about a week ago. What makes this more devastating is the fact that Harris was the leading tackler on the team last season, and was one of only 3-4 (depending on who you read and believe) players returning on the Florida defense.

    Obviously this is a major loss for Florida. Everyone agrees with that. Everyone except the Books that is. The line has not budged at all. As a matter of fact, in one Reno book, the line actually dropped from Michigan -4 1/2 to -4 AFTER the injury was reported. So what does this tell us?

    It tells us that all of the B.S. that lines makers want to hand out is just that. B.S. They could care about who is playing and who is not. The ONLY thing they care about is finding a line that will get equal play on both sides of the number. Everything else they may say is nothing but icing on the cake. They will do as much as possible to keep the lines at their opening number so they do not get "middled". The object of the book is to try and get as many amateur players in as possible. The 21-40 year old "Macho" types that lose their tails on a regular basis. At the same time, they want to try and neutralize the knowledgeable players who win on a consistent basis. Now with losers outnumbering winners by about 3/1, so you would think that this would not be a major concern to the books, but the consistent winners wager much more per player than the losers do. Do not look for a lot of line movement this season. Perhaps there will be less line movement than ever before.

  2. #2
    ChiTownTeaBagger
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    None of this is news.

    BTP
    Week 5
    3-2-0 122 pts

    BTP
    Week 4
    4-1-0 225 pts

    BTP
    Week 3
    4-1-0 682 pts


  3. #3
    BigdaddyQH
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    Quote Originally Posted by ChiTownTeaBagger View Post
    None of this is news.
    Maybe it is not news to you, but the vast majority of bettors who actually wager with money (not air, which seems to be the most popular currency in here) fail to take advantage of all of the opportunities offered to them BEFORE the week 1 lines come out. Have you made any preseason wagers such as total wins, Division and Conference Championship odds, "Games of the year" wagers, etc?

  4. #4
    jtoler
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    Bro safeties dont move lines anyway.

  5. #5
    ChiTownTeaBagger
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    Quote Originally Posted by BigdaddyQH View Post
    Maybe it is not news to you, but the vast majority of bettors who actually wager with money (not air, which seems to be the most popular currency in here) fail to take advantage of all of the opportunities offered to them BEFORE the week 1 lines come out. Have you made any preseason wagers such as total wins, Division and Conference Championship odds, "Games of the year" wagers, etc?
    Yes, I have.

    BTP
    Week 5
    3-2-0 122 pts

    BTP
    Week 4
    4-1-0 225 pts

    BTP
    Week 3
    4-1-0 682 pts


  6. #6
    BigdaddyQH
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    Quote Originally Posted by ChiTownTeaBagger View Post
    Yes, I have.
    Great. What wagers have you made?

    Jtoler, stop making a complete arse out of yourself. If you are stupid enough to think that the #1 defensive player on a team that returns 4 on defense does not move lines when he is lost for the season, then you really should be kicked out of here for stupidity. I love you wanna-be experts who are so poor that you cannot even afford the $100.00 to become a pro. You never make wagers, so just leave.

  7. #7
    jtoler
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    Quote Originally Posted by BigdaddyQH View Post
    Great. What wagers have you made?

    Jtoler, stop making a complete arse out of yourself. If you are stupid enough to think that the #1 defensive player on a team that returns 4 on defense does not move lines when he is lost for the season, then you really should be kicked out of here for stupidity. I love you wanna-be experts who are so poor that you cannot even afford the $100.00 to become a pro. You never make wagers, so just leave.
    Then explain why it didnt move? You even said it went the opposite way, explain that. Not to mention we are crazy amounts away from the actual game, any move could be anything, you worry too much about this stuff too far in advance.

  8. #8
    ChiTownTeaBagger
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    Quote Originally Posted by BigdaddyQH View Post
    Great. What wagers have you made?

    Jtoler, stop making a complete arse out of yourself. If you are stupid enough to think that the #1 defensive player on a team that returns 4 on defense does not move lines when he is lost for the season, then you really should be kicked out of here for stupidity. I love you wanna-be experts who are so poor that you cannot even afford the $100.00 to become a pro. You never make wagers, so just leave.
    At the risk of whatever negative thing you have to say about any thing anyone else posts, I'm currently on:

    OkSt o8.5 (-135) $1,350 to win $1,000
    USF o10 (+110) $550 to win $605
    Hawaii o4.5 (-120) $600 to win $500
    Hawaii -1 (-105) @ UMASS $105 to win $100

    The totals are with the SouthPoint on 7/17 and the Hawaii/UMASS is with a local earlier this week (but the line is available at many books). If I knew how to post pics of my tickets I would.

    BTP
    Week 5
    3-2-0 122 pts

    BTP
    Week 4
    4-1-0 225 pts

    BTP
    Week 3
    4-1-0 682 pts


  9. #9
    Eddy Munny
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    Jtoler already said it. Safeties don't move lines. What were you realistically expecting to happen following the injury? There are already a ton of question marks entering this game given the attrition of both teams, this just happens to be the latest. It's not enough to move the needle. None of this is shocking. Go outside and get some fresh air.

  10. #10
    crackerjack
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    What do you think should have happened to the line? I don't think one month out, muchnif anything is going to move the line. What about all the defensive studs Michigan lost? Did you bet Michigan on this news?

    BTP
    Week 4
    3-1-1 55 pts


  11. #11
    eeezzzz
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    I definitely feel this being 1 of the grueling low scoring games where Michigan could win 17-0 or Florida back scoring a meaningless back door touchdown with seconds in the game making the score 17-14. I honestly like Michigan though

  12. #12
    Eddy Munny
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    Quote Originally Posted by eeezzzz View Post
    I definitely feel this being 1 of the grueling low scoring games where Michigan could win 17-0 or Florida back scoring a meaningless back door touchdown with seconds in the game making the score 17-14. I honestly like Michigan though
    So just wait for the total and bet U.

  13. #13
    Riders23
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    So you are worried about Florida's top tackler from a year ago when Michigan lost 7 of its 8 top tacklers? If that was the main reason for a line change by your reasoning shouldn't Florida already be a double digit favorite?

  14. #14
    ZINISTER
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    Must be some early action on Florida. If you wanted a to hit a middle, going across the what a call a key number (3,7,10,14) the line went across 3 from 4 1/2 to now 2 1/2. Because it went across 4 & 3 it would be an excellent time to try to hit a middle. 4 point wins are not so uncommon. I have my eye on Indiana getting 30+ against my Buckeyes. Not so sure we are as strong as televised. I just think the 30+ is to keep the action even.

  15. #15
    BigdaddyQH
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    Quote Originally Posted by ChiTownTeaBagger View Post
    At the risk of whatever negative thing you have to say about any thing anyone else posts, I'm currently on:

    OkSt o8.5 (-135) $1,350 to win $1,000
    USF o10 (+110) $550 to win $605
    Hawaii o4.5 (-120) $600 to win $500
    Hawaii -1 (-105) @ UMASS $105 to win $100

    The totals are with the SouthPoint on 7/17 and the Hawaii/UMASS is with a local earlier this week (but the line is available at many books). If I knew how to post pics of my tickets I would.
    They look good to me. Hard to believe that some stupid book actually gave USF over 10 PLUS 110. I have no idea who they lose to, unless Charlie comes unhinged again, like he did at Texas.

  16. #16
    BigdaddyQH
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    Both teams have lost a ton of starters from last season. Michigan returns 5 starters on offense and only 1 on defense. Florida returns 9 starters on offense, but no QB, and 2 on defense, now that they have lost starting Safety Marcell Harris. I believe that both of these teams are over-rated. 8-4 for the loser is certainly within probability. The winner may go 9-3. To be honest, the game is a pass for me because I do not really like either one of these teams, or their Head Coaches. The line varies from Michigan -2 1/2 to -3 1/2 in Vegas, so if you want to get a middle on 3, this is your game. Food for thought.

  17. #17
    JMF2479
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    It's new news to me.

  18. #18
    maggiethebestdog
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    It seems like Florida never has a problem on defense any year no matter the turnover. They recruit such great athletes they usually step right in and perform. I am leaning Fla here. I don't see how Mich is giving that much at Fla. Harbaugh can't beat good teams and lost the last 3 last year. I think the line is out of whack because of Harbaugh. I don't buy it.

    I also am leaning Hawaii. They won't have jet lag for the opening game and UMASS is awful no matter where they play.

    Thoughts???

  19. #19
    Riders23
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    UMass put it to Hawaii last year in Hawaii, both teams have roughly same kind of talent coming back. I wouldn't touch that game, was leaning towards Umass if anything. Florida should be a fav, its a head scratcher for me. Mcelwain is one of the better coaches in the country imo.

  20. #20
    maggiethebestdog
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    Quote Originally Posted by Riders23 View Post
    UMass put it to Hawaii last year in Hawaii, both teams have roughly same kind of talent coming back. I wouldn't touch that game, was leaning towards Umass if anything. Florida should be a fav, its a head scratcher for me. Mcelwain is one of the better coaches in the country imo.
    I totally forgot about their game last year. Will have to think that over.

    The only thing I worry about Fla is their terrible offense. They haven't had any offense since Meyer left. Their defense is always solid. Every year people say the O has to get better but it never does.

  21. #21
    Ralphie Halves
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    Quote Originally Posted by Riders23 View Post
    UMass put it to Hawaii last year in Hawaii, both teams have roughly same kind of talent coming back. I wouldn't touch that game, was leaning towards Umass if anything. Florida should be a fav, its a head scratcher for me. Mcelwain is one of the better coaches in the country imo.
    This HI/Umass game intrigues me. I'm on Hawaii for one main reason. All things being equal, even though that game was close, Hawaii was 6 points better at home. The difference in venue, albeit a big one, is overrated because it's not like Hawaii will be tired or have minimal prep time. It's week 1, they have time to settle in.

    The biggest difference for me, is I think Hawaii got better, and Mass didn't. I'll take the -1.

    And yes, I've said it so many times before, I don't get the McElwain hotseat BS. He's a top 15 coach. Top 10 in-game.

  22. #22
    Mike2332
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    Quote Originally Posted by Ralphie Halves View Post
    This HI/Umass game intrigues me. I'm on Hawaii for one main reason. All things being equal, even though that game was close, Hawaii was 6 points better at home. The difference in venue, albeit a big one, is overrated because it's not like Hawaii will be tired or have minimal prep time. It's week 1, they have time to settle in.

    The biggest difference for me, is I think Hawaii got better, and Mass didn't. I'll take the -1.

    And yes, I've said it so many times before, I don't get the McElwain hotseat BS. He's a top 15 coach. Top 10 in-game.


    I am leaning Hawaii as well.......Their QB Dru Brown is the real deal.....He had an impressive FR year and I think will break out with huge numbers this season....They have an outstanding O-line returning as well as RB D. Saint Justes who ran for 1K at 6.1 YPC in shared duties..I can see Hawaii going to another bowl game despite their flimsy defense........I should dont see U-Mass being much better than the 2-10 team they were last year.............

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