1. #1
    BigdaddyQH
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    What Division Is The Toughest to Pick in the NCAA?

    I have given this question some thought and some research and here is my conclusion: The Toughest Division in the NCAA to figure out is the SEC East.

    First, eliminate all of the Divisions in the Group of 5. Each Division has at least one patsy in it. So that leaves us with the Power 5 Conferences. Now the Big 12 has no Divisions, but the do have Kansas and Iowa State, two teams that will be lucky to win 6 games between themselves. Lets look at the other 5 Conferences.

    ACC Atlantic: Boston College and Syracuse reside here and both will need upset wins to qualify for a bowl bid.
    ACC Coastal: Virginia needs vast improvement and Duck will have to correct last years terrible defensive effort for either one of these teams to win 6 games.

    Big 10 East: Rutgers will have to defeat some Big 10 teams. Good luck with that. Maryland can not afford a slip up.
    Big 10 West: Illinois is a long way from 6 wins. Purdue is right there with the Illini.

    Pac 12 North: Cal will pay the price for their all offense, no defense philosophy of the last three years. Oregon State did suprisingly well last year but will need an upset or two this season to get to 6 wins.

    Pac 12 South: Both Arizona schools faltered badly last season. Both will have to go 3-0 against their non-con opponents this season to have a sniff at 6 wins and that is not a gimme.

    SEC West: Mississippi is beginning a downward spiral that may affect them for several seasons. They must win all 4 of their non-con games and still upset a couple of SEC teams to get to the 6 win mark, which doesn't matter because they are ineligible for post season play.

    This leaves the SEC East. We all know about Georgia, Florida, and Tennessee. Kentucky won 7 games last season and returns 16 starters back. South Carolina won 6 games and returns 10 starters on offense. Vandy won 6 games and returns 15 starters. Missouri won just 4 games last season, but has 10 starters returning on offense. This Division looks like one in which teams will win most, if not all of their home games. That means a lot of 6-6 records. Tough to find a winner in here, but just as tough to find a loser. All of these teams look like they will win 3 non-con games and Mizzou has a great chance at winning 4.

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  2. #2
    gojetsgomoxies
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    how many teams have ever won the SEC East? serious question... i may have forgotten about tennessee, missouri or south carolina doing it once but it seems like it's always florida/georgia........... i'm thinking tennessee with tee martin was pre-SEC championship game.

    not a division but isn't big 12 quite wide open... pac 12 north might be wide-open this year too with oregon down and colorado/utah/WSU up.

  3. #3
    BigdaddyQH
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    It has been a long time for Tennessee since they last won the SEC East (2007). South Carolina won it in 2010. Mizzou won it in 2013, and 2014. Kentucky and Vandy have not come close to winning a Division Crown.

    As far as the Big 12 is concerned, the two Oklahoma's are the preseason favorite, but most of the interest is in Texas. Tom Herman is one of 5 new head coaches graduating from the "Group of 5" Conference team to a "Power 5" Conference team. Projections vary from 6-6 to 9-3. Texas returns a ton of players on defense and an experienced QB and OL on offense.

    Colorado and Utah are in the Pac 12 South, not the North. Both of those teams lose a lot on defense. Utah also loses 8 starters on offense.

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  4. #4
    Ralphie Halves
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    If I break your rules and go outside of power 5, because that's where my answers really are, it's MAC and Conference USA.

    MAC because it's ridiculously inconsistent from an ATS perspective. The strong teams and weak teams are fairly easy to spot before the season starts, but they will all drive you crazy. Unless you spotted Western Mich super early, there was little value anywhere. And the teams that seem like easy bet-againsts, can often become beasts out of nowhere. Shitty no-win MiamiOh wins their last 6 games. Horrible BGSU wins their last 3. Junk-ass Kent St beats CentMich on the road. So aggrivating.

    Conference USA because of the crazy offense/defense disparity. How can you say with any confidence that a strong team is going to win by 20 if both teams score 50 on a regular basis and play no defense? Because sometimes they're gonna. But shit man, hard to cap. And then games that should be obvious overs miss the total by 15 points. Pass.

    If I was staying Power 5, I would say the Big 12 for similar reasons as Conference USA. I generally avoid the Big 12 as a rule. I love it when people try to spout numbers and mention individual players when talking about Big 12 defenses. "Texas Tech is really gonna miss Johnny Nipples and his 8 total sacks on the year". Hate to break it to you guy, but Okie St is going to hang 60 on them regardless of if Johnny plays or not, so please stop wasting our time with this.

  5. #5
    Ralphie Halves
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    My answers were on a game-to-game basis just to be clear. As far as picking conference winners and such, I don't pay attention to it, because the only bets available there are futures which have a 20%+ house edge. Fuk that.

  6. #6
    BigdaddyQH
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    The Big 12 only has one team that may have a decent defense and that is Texas. They return 10 starters from a team that had a few decent games last season. A Big 12 team with a solid defense is a rarity. That is why the Big 12 is a solid #5 in the Power 5 Conference rankings.

    As far as the "Group of 5" teams and conferences, they are strictly second rate and should be wagered like that. Out of the 81 players named to the preseason "All American" teams (1st, 2nd, and 3rd) only DL Ed Oliver (Houston), WR Richie James (Middle Tennessee State), WR Courtland Sutton (SMU), TE Adam Breneman (UMass), and OL Will Hernandez, (UTEP) were mentioned. 5 out of 81. Terrible.
    CUSA went 4-3 in bowl games and the MAC was a dismal 0-6. It is very difficult to find a team with a solid ATS history backing it.

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  7. #7
    Ralphie Halves
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    Quote Originally Posted by BigdaddyQH View Post
    The Big 12 only has one team that may have a decent defense and that is Texas. They return 10 starters from a team that had a few decent games last season. A Big 12 team with a solid defense is a rarity. That is why the Big 12 is a solid #5 in the Power 5 Conference rankings.

    As far as the "Group of 5" teams and conferences, they are strictly second rate and should be wagered like that. Out of the 81 players named to the preseason "All American" teams (1st, 2nd, and 3rd) only DL Ed Oliver (Houston), WR Richie James (Middle Tennessee State), WR Courtland Sutton (SMU), TE Adam Breneman (UMass), and OL Will Hernandez, (UTEP) were mentioned. 5 out of 81. Terrible.
    CUSA went 4-3 in bowl games and the MAC was a dismal 0-6. It is very difficult to find a team with a solid ATS history backing it.
    Texas also loses Charlie Strong who was a defense guy and built that team as such. Will be interesting to see how that whole dynamic plays out.

    And I don't care how overall skilled certain conferences are. It has little to do with betting. I did really well in the AAC last year -- rode Houston through their early dominance and continued to have success in the AAC after that.

    Good spots are good spots. You just have to find them. I just find it way harder to do in certain conferences, and Big 12 is one of them for the reason I stated earlier. Shit, I'll take Sun Belt over Big 12 any day.

  8. #8
    BigdaddyQH
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    You are not doing your homework. Some teams in the Big 12 are easy. Take Okie State. A streak team. In 2013. They win 3, then lose 1, then win 7, then lose 2. In 2014 they lose 1, win 5. lose 5, then win 2. In 2015 they win 10 and lose the last 3. Last year they split the first four games, then won 7 before spliting the last two. Easy money. Texas is 1-7 (0-5) ATS in their last 8 the game BEFORE The Red River Shootout with OU. Again, easy money. Now I do not win every game I wager on using those stats, but I win way more than my fair share of them.

    You said that you rode Houston in their early successes. When did you get off of them. How many losses did you take before you decided to bail out?
    Last edited by BigdaddyQH; 07-17-17 at 05:16 PM.

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  9. #9
    Ralphie Halves
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    Quote Originally Posted by BigdaddyQH View Post
    You are not doing your homework. Some teams in the Big 12 are easy. Take Okie State. A streak team. In 2013. They win 3, then lose 1, then win 7, then lose 2. In 2014 they lose 1, win 5. lose 5, then win 2. In 2015 they win 10 and lose the last 3. Last year they split the first four games, then won 7 before spliting the last two. Easy money. Texas is 1-7 (0-5) ATS in their last 8 the game BEFORE The Red River Shootout with OU. Again, easy money. Now I do not win every game I wager on using those stats, but I win way more than my fair share of them.

    You said that you rode Houston in their early successes. When did you get off of them. How many losses did you take before you decided to bail out?
    It was a unicorn scenario. Rode them through the streak, and stopped right before they started losing. I had them ever since the opener against OU where they won outright, then I rode them right until mid-season because they were losing steam rapidly enough to where it was getting noticeable, then they started losing. I may have even taken a loss amidst that run, I don't recall, but it was stellar nonetheless.

    And you're right, I'm not doing my homework because I don't bet that way. Plenty of ways to skin a cat.

    But I still can't get on board with you on this streak thing, we had this argument years ago when talking about craps. Sure, it would be awesome to bet streaks if you had a crystal ball new exactly when they were beginning, but you don't, so it's irrelevant.

    Let's take your Texas stat. Before they were 1-7, they were 1-3 at some point I'll just assume. When they were 1-3, did you look at it and say "hey, there's a streak forming!". Probably not, 1-3 doesn't really qualify as one. So when did it occur? At 1-5? Okay, so you bet into it and win the next two games as they go 1-7. Then let's say they finally cover one and you just went 2-1 as a bettor. Good, but not very exciting. Especially considering they could have easily covered the very first game you took. But then you wouldn't have had the fun hindsight stat to throw out.

    I'm an open-minded dude, I'm willing to come to your side on this if you can explain it to me. If you can answer these two things....

    1) When is something officially considered a "streak" in your book, to where you will now start betting that streak? 4 in a row? 1-5? What?

    2) What are the numbers behind the real possibility that said streak will continue for weeks as opposed to ending as soon as you start betting it?

  10. #10
    BigdaddyQH
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    Ralphie, are you really trying to tell me that you magically stopped wagering on Houston after they covered in 4 straight games, and out scored those opponents 142-56 because they were facing a Navy team that had just lost to the Air Force by 14 points the previous week? Do you want to explain to me how a 42-14 win is "losing steam rapidly?" Do you really expect me to buy that? There is no way in hell I will buy that. Prove it and I will be glad to apologize for this, but do not even try to make yourself out to be something that you are not, and that is an expert on College Football.

    As far as streaks go, I am really surprised that you have not figured this out. Let me ask you this question. How many times can you win backing a streak and how many times can you lose fading a streak? Out of the 126 teams that made up the FBS last season, only 29 had streaks of less than 4 games, and out of those 29, only 4 had streaks of less than 3 games. 64 teams had streaks of 5 games or more. The beauty of this system is that it does not matter if the streak is a winning streak or a losing streak. Baylor did both. They won their first 6 games and lost their last 6. In that case, You win 5 straight, then lose one, then win 5 more. Now this system takes some time, and you are not going to amass a fortune in any one season, but you will win every season. There is no difference between wagering on football and any other type of wager not controlled by a machine (Slots, Video Poker, etc...).

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  11. #11
    Ralphie Halves
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    To avoid confusion, because there appears to be some, I'll make a couple of things clear...

    - I'm never trying to prove anything to anyone. I don't have those insecurities. I love talking about my favorite sport, and I like to give my opinion on it. That's why I'm here.

    - Yes, I rode Houston through the wins only and stopped right before they lost. Do the stars ever line up like that? Almost never, but it did with them last year. Sometimes good things happen.

    - You weren't able to answer any of my questions on streaks, which confirms what I already suspected.

  12. #12
    BigdaddyQH
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    Obviously you no absolutely NOTHING about gaming or you would know this. NEVER EVER wager against a streak. The reason is so obvious that I cannot believe that you could not figure this out. If you wager with the streak, you can win for as long as the streak wins, but you can only lose ONCE! I will GUARANTEE you that I made more money on that system alone last season than you made on all of your alleged wagers. The worst teams I had were a couple of 2-9 teams. Let's use your own Houston team. The one where you magically knew exactly when to stop. My system was a PROVEN 8-3. No questions. No maybe's. Just for the hell of it, let me review how the teams that started with the letter "C" did. Cal, 5-6. Central Mich. 7-4. Charlotte, 8-2. Cincinnati, 6-4. Clemson, 7-6. Colorado, 9-3. Colorado State, 7-4, Conn, 8-2. That totals up to 57-28. 67%. Want to try the "A's". Air Force, 7-4. Akron, 4-6. Alabama, 7-6. App State, 6-7. Arizona, 8-3. Arizona State, 3-8. Arkansas, 4-7. Ark State, 8-3. Army, 5-4. Auburn, 7-4. 59-52. Another winner. the fact is that you cannot find a loser. Conference? How about the big 12? Baylor, 7-5. Iowa State, 5-5. Kansas, 8-3. K-State, 6-5. Oklahoma, 6-6. Okie State, 4-6. TCU, 6-5. Texas, 6-5. Texas Tech, 4-6. West Virginia, 3-6. Total, 55-52. A bit better than a push. Need any other proof?

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  13. #13
    Ralphie Halves
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    Holy shit, I have no f'king clue what you're talking about.

  14. #14
    BigdaddyQH
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    Quote Originally Posted by Ralphie Halves View Post
    Holy shit, I have no f'king clue what you're talking about.
    Which proves my point. You know very little, or nothing about gaming in general, and college football wagering. What I have done is use real numbers and real results to prove my theories, not some make believe claim which you cannot prove. Let me ask you this question. Are you willing to post your picks BEFORE the games are actually played? Yes or No.

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  15. #15
    Ralphie Halves
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    I'm sorry I'm not able to call the sportsbook at the South point and the M Casino and ask for my old betting slips from last year. I would like to see the look on their faces if I tried however.

    And you haven't explained anything. If there's anyone out there that wants to look at the questions I asked in post #9, and explain how it was answered in post #12 (Warning: You're going to want those 3 minutes of your life back), I'm all ears.

    I might put up picks this year, I haven't decided. The burden is on you however to put up a functioning spreadsheet that has a real total at the bottom. You're the one who constantly tells people how great he is and how they're all terrible. And we're not seeing much proof. All I did was mention in passing how I had a perfect-storm type run with one team last year, and you blow up like a liberal protester. You've been clucking and beating your chest for years. Make sure you step up.

  16. #16
    BigdaddyQH
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    Ralphie, you are a liar. You have some knowledge about the game, but you are a liar. You are also gutless. Cowards like you are a dime a dozen in here. I am calling your worthless arse out. Either post your picks or get your tail run out of here, and I WILL run it out of here. No more Bull S**t from you. I have 13 game picks and 13 season total picks posted on my Spreadsheet in here. Get off your dead worthless arse and look at it. The next thing you will be telling me is that you can make as much money wagering on some Mickey Mouse MAC Conference game as you can wagering on a SEC Conference game. You are so afraid of being branded a loser that you will not even become a pro or enter any of the contests in here.

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  17. #17
    ChiTownTeaBagger
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    Quote Originally Posted by BigdaddyQH View Post
    Ralphie, you are a liar. You have some knowledge about the game, but you are a liar. You are also gutless. Cowards like you are a dime a dozen in here. I am calling your worthless arse out. Either post your picks or get your tail run out of here, and I WILL run it out of here. No more Bull S**t from you. I have 13 game picks and 13 season total picks posted on my Spreadsheet in here. Get off your dead worthless arse and look at it. The next thing you will be telling me is that you can make as much money wagering on some Mickey Mouse MAC Conference game as you can wagering on a SEC Conference game. You are so afraid of being branded a loser that you will not even become a pro or enter any of the contests in here.
    Speaking of the contests...how do those work? Is there a link that explains them so I don't have to bother people with silly questions? Do you buy in with cash? betpoints? Win cash? betpoints?

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  18. #18
    jt315
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    Quote Originally Posted by BigdaddyQH View Post
    Ralphie, you are a liar. You have some knowledge about the game, but you are a liar. You are also gutless. Cowards like you are a dime a dozen in here. I am calling your worthless arse out. Either post your picks or get your tail run out of here, and I WILL run it out of here. No more Bull S**t from you. I have 13 game picks and 13 season total picks posted on my Spreadsheet in here. Get off your dead worthless arse and look at it. The next thing you will be telling me is that you can make as much money wagering on some Mickey Mouse MAC Conference game as you can wagering on a SEC Conference game. You are so afraid of being branded a loser that you will not even become a pro or enter any of the contests in here.
    Phony lines, dates and books used .....Fraud alert .
    Last edited by jt315; 07-20-17 at 04:42 PM.

  19. #19
    gojetsgomoxies
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    thx for the correction on the pac12 conferences.......... so insert cal/stanford for utah/col means it's not as wide-open though stanford/oregon are such wildcards these days. 2 dead teams though.

  20. #20
    gojetsgomoxies
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    in fairness to ralphie, i think one aspect of being successful bettor is to have strong views but be willing to change them quickly. usually this happens when there's evidence to the contrary but not always. sometimes you get a feeling esp. if you watch the team's games as you guys seem to.

  21. #21
    Ralphie Halves
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    gojets - You are correct. Being able to adjust is key, because the game adjusts, Vegas adjusts, everything adjusts. If you're just sitting there clinging on to old ways, you're finished.

    Biggie - You have no power and no influence here, you don't get to decide what people do and what they don't, who they are and who they aren't. And by the way, I offered to step in and challenge you in the $500 charity contest when that other guy stiffed, https://www.sportsbookreview.com/for...daddy-p10.html, but you never took me up on it. As I said before, I might post picks this year, I might not, but your huffing and puffing won't be the reason why because.....well see my first sentence.

  22. #22
    daneblazer
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    SEC East probably comes down to the game in Jacksonville. If Georgia finds some offensive line play, they have several other pieces in place

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  23. #23
    BigdaddyQH
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    Ralphie, what you do is your choice. What I do is MY choice, and that includes calling you out when you post your alleged results AFTER the games have been played. No more posting your alleged picks after the games are over. Continue to do that and I will continue to call you out. No more B.S. out of you. I have a spreadsheet that is posted as we speak. It has all of the wagers in College Football that I have made. It includes the dates that I made the wagers and the books that I made those wagers at. There is simply NO WAY that anyone can question the legitimacy of the lines that are posted because all you have to do is bring up the odds of the game in question on the date I made the wagers at the book that the wagers were made. Even the simpleton like JT315 can figure this out. Ofcourse it helps if you are not a complete dumb arse like he is. Just another fool begging for an arse kicking.

    As far as the SEC East is concerned, Florida took a major hit when they lost their best defensive player, Marcell Harris, for the season. Having to depend on the Florida offense to win games is a very risky proposition, to say the least. It can be done, but it will take a major collapse by other teams in the SEC East to do it. Florida hosts Tennessee, LSU, and A&M before the Georgia game. Georgia goes to Tennessee. Advantage Georgia. Tennessee has a bad habit of losing conference games they should win. Last year they defeated both Florida and Georgia, but still managed to lose three conference games in a row to A&M, Alabama, and South Carolina. Tough to back a team with that tyhpe of history and who lost their QB and most of their playmakers on offense.

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  24. #24
    jt315
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    ^^^^^^^


    Show me the Wyoming +10.5 TICKET placed on 6/30 at the GN.
    You know the date GN released their games of the year.
    Oh wait, they opened GOY lines on 6/22 and the line was already +8 the next day FRAUD.


    BUSTED

    NCAAF BETTORS COME FROM FAR AND WIDE FOR GOLDEN NUGGET'S GAMES OF THE YEAR RELEASE

    Jun 22, 2017 |
    By: PATRICK EVERSON


    There was no game that I found that was more than 4 points off what I’d make it for preseason action. I think this year was by far Tony’s best,” said Michaels, who ended up hanging onto his cash on this day, though he did have one strong opinion. “Wyoming is a team I think will be completely overrated.”

    The Cowboys, for what Miller said was the first time in the 11 years he’s done this, not only had one game but two among the Games of the Year. That’s largely due to having Heisman Trophy hopeful Josh Allen at quarterback, a player already drawing raves from NFL analysts.


    “The very first bet we took was on Wyoming,” Miller said, noting that wagering opened with a patron taking the Cowboys +10.5 at home against Oregon. In fact, that game was the biggest mover Thursday, dropping to Oregon -8 by mid-afternoon.
    Last edited by jt315; 07-23-17 at 01:30 PM.

  25. #25
    Ralphie Halves
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    Biggie, you're like a psychotic girlfriend. I mention, one time, that I had a really good run with Houston last year, something you know I can't go back and prove, and you go apeshit. When you're at a bar with somebody, and they mention a job they had or a girl they dated, do you flip out demand proof right away? I'll bet you're a lot of fun.

    Your entire existence here is based on a created persona built on things you can't prove either -- the amount you wager, these old-school betting syndicates that you keep leaning on, the fact that you "do it for a living". But I don't ask you to prove those things, primarily because I don't care, and only a childish lunatic would sit here and hold your feet to the fire every time you said you did something.

    And my offer still stands for this year. I have the money, I like St. Jude's too, and I'm not going anywhere. And I can't predict the future, but I will predict that you will need to do better than you did last year (16-14) to beat me.

  26. #26
    BigDofBA
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    Quote Originally Posted by BigdaddyQH View Post
    The Big 12 only has one team that may have a decent defense and that is Texas. They return 10 starters from a team that had a few decent games last season.
    It only helps if you return good players.

    Texas has had three straight losing season and their defense was trash last year.

    You only get excited about returning starters when they are good. In Texas' case, it would probably be better if they didn't return many guys.

    They have a few really good linebackers but the secondary is garbage. That doesn't translate to success in the Big 12.

  27. #27
    BigdaddyQH
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    Quote Originally Posted by BigDofBA View Post
    It only helps if you return good players.

    Texas has had three straight losing season and their defense was trash last year.

    You only get excited about returning starters when they are good. In Texas' case, it would probably be better if they didn't return many guys.

    They have a few really good linebackers but the secondary is garbage. That doesn't translate to success in the Big 12.
    This is why I said that they had a "FEW" decent games on defense last season. I think we all can agree that defense in the Big 12 is just about non-existant.

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  28. #28
    BigDofBA
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    Quote Originally Posted by BigDofBA View Post
    It only helps if you return good players.

    Texas has had three straight losing season and their defense was trash last year.

    You only get excited about returning starters when they are good. In Texas' case, it would probably be better if they didn't return many guys.

    They have a few really good linebackers but the secondary is garbage. That doesn't translate to success in the Big 12.
    Like I said, Texas sucks.

  29. #29
    Capitols44
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    Quote Originally Posted by BigdaddyQH View Post
    I have given this question some thought and some research and here is my conclusion: The Toughest Division in the NCAA to figure out is the SEC East.

    First, eliminate all of the Divisions in the Group of 5. Each Division has at least one patsy in it. So that leaves us with the Power 5 Conferences. Now the Big 12 has no Divisions, but the do have Kansas and Iowa State, two teams that will be lucky to win 6 games between themselves. Lets look at the other 5 Conferences.

    ACC Atlantic: Boston College and Syracuse reside here and both will need upset wins to qualify for a bowl bid.
    ACC Coastal: Virginia needs vast improvement and Duck will have to correct last years terrible defensive effort for either one of these teams to win 6 games.

    Big 10 East: Rutgers will have to defeat some Big 10 teams. Good luck with that. Maryland can not afford a slip up.
    Big 10 West: Illinois is a long way from 6 wins. Purdue is right there with the Illini.

    Pac 12 North: Cal will pay the price for their all offense, no defense philosophy of the last three years. Oregon State did suprisingly well last year but will need an upset or two this season to get to 6 wins.

    Pac 12 South: Both Arizona schools faltered badly last season. Both will have to go 3-0 against their non-con opponents this season to have a sniff at 6 wins and that is not a gimme.

    SEC West: Mississippi is beginning a downward spiral that may affect them for several seasons. They must win all 4 of their non-con games and still upset a couple of SEC teams to get to the 6 win mark, which doesn't matter because they are ineligible for post season play.

    This leaves the SEC East. We all know about Georgia, Florida, and Tennessee. Kentucky won 7 games last season and returns 16 starters back. South Carolina won 6 games and returns 10 starters on offense. Vandy won 6 games and returns 15 starters. Missouri won just 4 games last season, but has 10 starters returning on offense. This Division looks like one in which teams will win most, if not all of their home games. That means a lot of 6-6 records. Tough to find a winner in here, but just as tough to find a loser. All of these teams look like they will win 3 non-con games and Mizzou has a great chance at winning 4.
    Anybody want to explain why is this question being asked? Its the same year in and year out. Alabama is always a contender in the S.E.C. . I also see you did not mention that purdue could have a winning season this year after how they handled lousiville tonight.

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