Starting with games on 9/9, here are some possible early GOY wagers:
9/9. Auburn +7 @ Clemson. Clemson loses most of their offensive talent from last year. The defense will be good. Auburn returns 7 starters on offense plus QB Stidham. The defense also returns 7. That should be enough to keep this game very close.
9/16. Oregon -1 @ Wyoming. I understand that Wyoming returns 9 starters on defense and 6 on offense. I also understand that they went 6-0 at home last season. As good as that was, and as competitive as they may be in the MWC this season,it still does not compare to the talent that Oregon returns (8 on each side of the ball) and the revenge motive for last years dismal 4-8 season. New HC Taggart is very good in first year situations like this. Possible GOY?
9/16. Oklahoma State -4.5 @ Pitt. Both teams return 6 starters on offense. OKie State return 5 on defense, and Pitt only 4. That is where the similarities end. If Pitt wants to be in the game at the half, they are going to have to rely on Grad Transfer Browne from USC to lead them. He could not lead a much more talented team at USC. State pulls away in the 2nd half.
9/23. Arkansas +10 vs Texas A&M The Hogs retrun 7 starters on an offense which scored 24 or more points 9 times last season. The problem is with the D, that gave up way too many leads, and returns only 5. A&M returns 5 on offense, but no one in the bsackfield. They return 6 on defense, but may be weak in the ground game. I love fading HC's that have been given an ultimatum by their AD's. Sumlin got his yesterday. 10 points is way too many to give.
10/7. Air Force +15 1/2 @ Navy. The Air Force returns just 1 on defense. Unfortunately for Navy, they return just 4 on offense. The Air Force returns 6 starters on offense, the same number that the Navy returns on their defense. That makes this game a slight edge for the Middies, but certainly NOT 15 1/2 points.
10/14. Auburn + 4.5 at LSU. I have already talked about Auburn (see Auburn-Clemson). LSU returns just 5 starters on offense and 4 on defense. They will continue to have problems scoring. Orgeron's record as a permanent HC is not real good. Auburn wins a close game.
10/21. Florida State -6.5 vs Louisville. The 'Noles return 5 starters on offense including QB Francois and 9 on defense from a Top 25 defensive team in 2016. Louisville returns Heisman Winner Jackson, but only 3 more on offense and 7 on a defense that was pretty much blown apart at the end of the 2016 season. The Cards offense was held to 10 points at Houston and 9 against LSU to finish the 2016 season. State has the defense to match those numbers.
11/4. TCU -5 vs Texas. Texas returns 6 starters on offense and 10 on defense from last years team. The cupboard seems to be stocked for new HC Herman. The question is can a HC from a group of 5 school do well in a power 5 conference? TCU also had a disappointing season. They also return 9 starters on offense and 7 on defense. That, plus playing at home, should be enough to cover.
11/18. Northwestern -6 vs Minnesota. Minny returns 7 on offense but needs to find a new QB. The defense returns only 4. Another group of 5 HC makes a move into Power 5 country. Minny's off season was anything but smooth. Northwestern returns 8 starters on offense including their starting backfield, 7 on defense, and one of the best HC's in a conference loaded with good ones. This game is sandwiched between a game against Purdue and a game at Illinois. That spells a strong 3-0 finish for the Cats.
11/25. Kentucky +8.5 vs Louisville. We have previously discussed Louisville, and their problems at the end of last season. Kentucky returns 8 starters on both sides of the balls. No one gives them much respect, but this team won 7 games last season, the first time since the Rich Brooks era. Playing their rival who may have already thrown in the towel for the season and getting 8.5 points is too much to pass on.
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