[phil_abuster]

so with Pitt-4 unable to overcome several bad breaks against them
and then Utah-4 winning by only 2,
and A&M-4 losing outright,
this means so far this bowl season

favs of at least -3 pts = 5 - 18 ats

3pt+ dogs r covering 78%


there are 16 bowl games left (3 today)
at this point all of them r favs of at least -3
w/the possible exception of tcu/geo on friday

*IF* this unlikely ats streak holds - even at 75% on dogs
the dog bettor would go 12 - 4 !!

hell, even if this trend gets a couple more losses and drops
to only 63% the dog bettor would still go 10-6!

yesterday, a good look at the board and i thought certain
all the favs would win and surely Pitt and Utah would cover easily
breaking this silly ats trend.
many of u thought the same!
instead, only miami (8-4) covered against 10-2 West.Va
and 2 of 3 favs lost outright....again!

Like many of u, for me this too has been a weird cfb season
where we cant even rely on the better team to at least WIN
the game let alone cover. DOGS r covering 53.3% this yr!

today, 3 more favs of at least -3 pts
all with better win/loss records and
all rated higher (the better team?!)
bulls and hokies look like virtual locks, at least to win, right?!?!
and underrated buffaloes seem a strong play to cover just -3.
well, maybe
or then again, "not so fast my friend" because
if we ignore our mistakes from the past we r doomed to repeat them

examples this bowl season:

-9 1/2 pt fav new mexico (8-4), much higher rated
playing at HOME vs very mediocre 6-6 utsa,
fail to cover and narrowly escape w/a 3 pt win

-4 pt fav ucf, playing at HOME vs lower rated ark.st
get blown out 13-31!

-5 houston gets humiliated 10-34 by the aztecs

-10 fav BYU narrowly escapes w/a 3 pt win vs mediocre Wyoming

-15.5 heavy fav colo.st loses 50-61 to lower rated idaho!

-7.5 fav Middle Tennessee (8-4) and much higher rated than
weakass 6-7 hawaii - gets blown by 17 pts!

-14.5 heavy fav Miss.St much, MUCH higher rated than
weakass mia-ohio, narrowly escape w/just a 17-16 win!


and more recently...


-10.5 pt 2 score fav Temple(10-3) and much higher rated than
mediocre 6-6 Wake Forest - LOSE 26-34

-9pt 2 score fav and top 28 rated Wash.St - averaging a whopping
40 pts per game, and much, MUCH higher rated than Minnesota
to begin with - who were handicapped further by suspending
10 gopher players including 2 starting DBs and 3 reserve DBs!
got DOMINATED by that depleted gopher defense in a 12-17 upset!

-7.5pt fav and HIGH RATED Boise w/what appeared to b an
impressive 10-2 record, facing mediocre 6-6 Baylor - on a 6 game
losing streak - having only defeated ONE winning team all season -
and most of their 6 wins in the first half of the season against awful
loser teams - then promptly crush Boise 31-12

-4 pt fav Pitt (8-4) and much higher rated, LOSE outright to 6-6 NWU

-4 pt fav Utah (8-4) in a game which could have gone either way,
narrowly escape w/a 2 pt win to mediocre 6-6 Indiana

-4 pt fav Tex A&M - although only slightly higher rated than KSU
but playing in front of a Texas crowd dominated by A&M supporters
LOSE 28-33

Today, all the favs do appear to b the better teams, and yet...

- Phil

[readytowinem]

Yup...

[Winning oasis]

Nice work man. Thank you.

With all that work. Who are you on today ?

[phil_abuster]

Nice work man. Thank you.

With all that work. Who are you on today ?

Thanks!
posting took over 2 hrs to compose

well, for me, i appear to b fade material so far, but
i bet the dog S.Carolina +10.5

and if i can get the hook on the other two dogs ill bet them too!

[BigdaddyQH]

Nice write up, but you fail to mention some of the obvious signs that bettors overlook. Some examples: BYU had 7 of their 12 games decided by less than 10 points, the spread vs Wyoming. 5 of those 7 games were away from home. Wyoming had 8 of their 13 games decided by less than 10 points. This indicates that BYU -10 is way too many points to give.

UCF lost 3 out of their final 4 games and Arkansas state had won 8 out of their last 9 games. Houston was a bad favorite against MWC San Diego State. Both Hawaii and Idaho win at home (or very close to home). Also by my count, there have been 24 bowl games and the winning team has covered 19 of them, which is about 80% and consistant with those stats. Finding the winning team is much more important than the line.

[phil_abuster]

Nice write up, but you fail to mention some of the obvious signs that bettors overlook. Some examples: BYU had 7 of their 12 games decided by less than 10 points, the spread vs Wyoming. 5 of those 7 games were away from home. Wyoming had 8 of their 13 games decided by less than 10 points. This indicates that BYU -10 is way too many points to give.

thank you

but i disagree.
5 of BYUs losses of less than 10 pts were at the start of the season - against toledo, ucla, west va, utah, AZ and they outperformed expectations by covering 4 of those 5! then as the season progressed BYU improved play and finished winning 4 final games, all as favs of -7.5, -32, -28, -17, by a margin of AT LEAST 17 pts each, and covering 3 of those last 4, before wyoming.
and actually the fact that "5 of those 7 were on the road" actually supports the BYU-10 argument since its more difficult to perform as well on the road *but they covered all 6 road games anyway!* losing by only 1 @Utah, by only 3 @10-2 WestVa, and by only 1 @10-2 Boise -- all teams much stronger than mediocre wyoming - and all true road games - begs the question how would those strong performances against very good teams hold up vs a weaker opponent when NOT a true road game!

as for wyoming its debatable at best.
one of their wins was to fcs uc davis. toss out. byu didnt play any fcs
wyo lost outright to mediocre east.mich!
they needed 3x OT to escape w/a home win vs 5-7 loser n.illinois
then in the second half of the season they went only 3-3
very narrow wins vs good teams boise and aztecs, yes - but both at home
in those final 6 they managed to LOSE to 4-8 loser unlv,
lose by a whopping 21 pts to mediocre new mexico
and then lose AT HOME to the aztecs in the MW championship,
to finish w/losses in 3 of their final 4 games before the bowl
and all of those opps rated LOWER than byu

the argument can b made for byu by about 8.5-10 pts
just like the oddsmakers figured when the consensus open was 8.5 at most offshores.
i see NO indisputable evidence to overturn the call

UCF lost 3 out of their final 4 games and Arkansas state had won 8 out of their last 9 games.

nevertheless, in spite of that,
going into the game ucf was STILL rated higher than ark.st
....AND this was a home game!
only laying 3.5 or 4, at home, vs a lower rated opp is about right!

Houston was a bad favorite against MWC San Diego State.

some might say that.
others would disagree.
certainly not "indisputable" - unless we judge AFTER the game is over

Both Hawaii and Idaho win at home (or very close to home).

huh?!?!??
in order, at home, hawaii performed:
- win by only 5 vs weakling, tenn.martin from fcs
- win but vs 5-7 loser team nevada
- LOSE vs 4-8 loser team unlv
- LOSE by 7 vs new mexico (rated near the same as 8-4 Mid.Tennessee)
- LOSE by 36 pts to boise
- win by only 6 to dreadful weakling 2-10 umass

hawaii played 7 games vs opps rated higher than themselves -
winning only one - in double OT
...and MTSU won 5 of their 7 true road games - although most weaker opps.
still they obviously have no dropoff playing on the road.

entering that game the line on MTSU -7 was about dead on.
i see no idisputable evidence to overturn that call either.


as for idaho, sure they were 4-1 at home. so what?
the bowl game was not in moscow,idaho
it was a 5.5 hour drive away in boise!!
(colo. st fans had to drive 10.5 hrs)
more vandals supporters, sure, but significant ram support too!
even so, looking at the vandals true home games in moscow:
- escape w/lucky 3 pt win vs cupcake 4-7 montana st from fcs
- win but vs weakling 3-9 new mex.st
- win but vs lower rated s.alabama
- win but vs weakling 3-9 georgia st.
...and the only home game vandals played vs a winning opp -
was vs troy (rated only slightly higher than colo.st)
whence the mighty vandals were blown out 13 - 34

the idaho vandal fans only had a 15 minute commute to pullman, wash
ie. ---> "very close to home"
where they were bitch-slapped 6-56 by 8-5 wash.state

thus the line on the higher rated rams was about right also

- Phil

[Winning oasis]

Quality.

Putting SC winnings on Ark +7.5 -110.

[phil_abuster]

Quality.

Putting SC winnings on Ark +7.5 -110.

Thanks!

i couldnt get a hook at the time i placed my bet
then i found out "ernie the loser" is ON arkansas +7
(local guy who ranks in the top 10 of alltime losers)

bad sign!

i took hokies at -7 while i still could
but i suppose i could live w/a 7 pt hokie win

good luck

[phil_abuster]

UPDATE, dec.29
-after s.florida failure to cover -10.5

FAVS of at least -3 pts = 5 - 19 ats

3pt+ dogs r covering 79%

and as i type this, another dog, Arkansas +7 or +7.5
is winning 17-0 after just first Q!!

[phil_abuster]

Thanks!

i couldnt get a hook at the time i placed my bet
then i found out "ernie the loser" is ON arkansas +7
(local guy who ranks in the top 10 of alltime losers)

bad sign!

i took hokies at -7 while i still could
but i suppose i could live w/a 7 pt hokie win

good luck

and ive seen enough so i just laid the big bucks on the ML on razorbacks

[phil_abuster]

and ive seen enough so i just laid the big bucks on the ML on razorbacks

btw,
im counting very heavily on arkansas preventing the hokies from
storming back down 24-zip

of course we expect the hokies will score, but arkansas should too
they better or my goose is cooked big time

[phil_abuster]

huge lucky break for hokies!
pass to set the razorbacks up near the goalline but fumbled (unforced) thru the endzone
facemask call on vt, means had the receiver not fumbled thru the endzone, the
razorbacks would be 1st and goal inside the 5....

[phil_abuster]

fortune smiling on hokies again
as mid 3Q they gain a tipped-ball int at the razorback 40
that drive stalls on 3rd down, but for an UNforced error on the
defender for a penalty to give the hokies 1st and goal, then an easy TD

and as i type this, the hokies receive yet another lucky break
w/an unforced error (interception) inside the razorback 15
next play, hokie TD.
3 razorback turnovers, all unforced/created/caused, go to hokies in 11 snaps.
now a 24-0 rout is just 24-21 and anyones game!
and the razorbacks r known for collapsing in the 2h

i was betting that they wouldnt do it this one time.....sigh

[phil_abuster]

so like a fool i just went even more huge ML on the lucky hokies
either way, i lose a lot of $$$, but less if hokies win

[phil_abuster]

so like a fool i just went even more huge ML on the lucky hokies
either way, i lose a lot of $$$, but less if hokies win

maybe not so foolish, as it turns out

[phil_abuster]

i couldnt get a hook at the time i placed my bet
then i found out "ernie the loser" is ON arkansas +7
(a local guy who ranks in the top 10 of alltime losers)
bad sign!
i (Phil) took hokies at -7 while i still could

so..... "ernie the loser" has struck once again

and as a result, finally a fav of 3 or more pts COVERS!

FAVS of at least -3 pts = 6 - 19 ats

3pt+ dogs r covering 76%

- Phil

[phil_abuster]

so yet another fav fails to cover
as the favored buffs get humiliated

FAVS of at least -3 pts = 6 - 20 ats

3pt+ dogs r covering 77%

- Phil

[phil_abuster]

so yet another fav (TCU-3) fails to cover


FAVS of at least -3 pts = 6 - 21 ats

3pt+ dogs r covering 77.7%
**Note:
in the sun bowl Stanford will not qualify as a "significant bowl fav"
as the consensus close was only -2.5 (my stat needs -3 minimum)

- Phil

[phil_abuster]

so 2 favs of at least -3 pts covered today (Tenn and AF)
while 2 favs failed to cover (TCU and Mich)


FAVS of at least -3 pts = 8 - 23 ats

3pt+ dogs r covering 74.2%

**Note:
in the sun bowl Stanford did not qualify as a "significant bowl fav"
as the consensus close was only -2.5 (my stat needs -3 minimum)
- Phil

[phil_abuster]

new stat to share

2016 bowl season only

when the PUBLIC appears to be 60% or more on a side

4 covers vs 12 LOSSES !!

the public is ~67% on Bama to cover -13.5

source: vegasinsider