UTSA is tempting but this is a home game for New Mexico and they finished up strong 6-1 SU. If you like the Over now is the time with it dropped around 4 points from the opener. Its confusing because I'm showing about 3 out of 4 on the Over already yet the line dropped. The spread has drifted in NM favor but I still think the public is undervaluing UTSA here just a little. It is afterall the NM bowl so Bob may destroy UTSA.
Lean UTSA +8.5
Cougars and Aztecs in Vegas. I'm not sure what to think here and the line now -5 (dead number) feels pretty accurate. I thought Rocky had a solid defense but after seeing them against Cal I was unconvinced. The Pumphrey character is... no offense to everyone... but underwhelming to me. The defenses I saw him shredding weren't much for me to become a believer however if he wants to make some believers.... today would be his chance. I also like that SD St is a bit of a contrarian play and the obvious coaching changes going on with Houston. Cougars got a QB and a defense that is playing slightly better down the stretch. Looking at the numbers it looks like the Under WAS probably the play but that time has passed, things been crushed.
Lean SD ST +5.5 and Uncle Donnell Pumps
Red Wuffs and Golden Knights playing for the Cure. I liked Arky State to make some noise in conference play and they did. The Wuffs are trending better offensively and defensively then UCF has but I'm looking at the level of competiton and UCF wins in that category. Honestly I'm not buying it on the Wuffs in this spot, I think UCF while a rough finish to the year is a superior team and will finish out the season strong after the long layoff. Also it is contrarian a lovely theme I like...line has dropped and appears lots of paper on the Wuffs here. I think people looking at just SU records or whatever are probably thinking -7 is too many but I don't.
Play on UCF -5.5
AppleState and Holy Toledo in the Cam bowl. Defense and coaching I'm betting wins. I am worried about being taken to the Logan Woodshed and that rocket offense but people know about App State and they should not be underestimated. I guess this would also be the first pick that I agree with the line move dog to fav and is not really a contrarian play in my book. I have seen the theories of going fav to dog or vice versa but I don't have a way to verify that kind of information.
Play on App State ML
*Just for the record I am not an expert nor do I advise anyone to tail or lose munnies following this information. Maybe fade them I don't know, it's mainly for me to be able to go back and look at my thoughts during this bowl season and see how well or poorly I did and to scientifically assess which strain is the most profitable during the bowl season.
Memphis DM, I am seeing that total open at 60, 57, 55. I'm going to wait for the day to unfold here before I make a final decision on the ULL game.
I have no opinion on the Grambling State or any of these other non division 1 schools. Youngstown State sticks out but no logical reasoning. Maybe seeing them win last night at a hockey game I attended (decent/fiery goalie). Anyway I'm rambling now.
Laffy Taffy vs Golden Eagles in New Orleans. I believe the books have done well in the bowl games thus far and tonight I see there is more than likely public money on the OVER. Some things I've seen is ULL record in this bowl game and I know Phil Steele had them as a surprise team so I think this is going to be a popular pick to win outright. The line movement in this game specifically makes me want to stay far away from it. I envision this being a scoring fest especially if folks think the dog is going to hang in this game. Even though this is probably a square/terrible play I think the books give a little here to pay some Over tickets. GL
New Mexico- I didn't get much of a chance to watch this game but I did see the ending. Apparently NM backers are angry but I'm pretty sure that was a close game throughout and probably the wrong side at least on paper. UTSA out gained NM by 80+ yards but were undone for the straight up win due to the 1-0 turnover loss....and lets be honest it was in NM.
Vegas Bowl- Yea this was what I was watching for the 1Q and then some of the 3rd and 4th qtrs. I really thought Houston was coming to play in that 1Q as they were blowing up everything. Pass rush, pump stuffing, 10 points it all looked good. 4 Houston turnovers later adjustments had been made and Rocky proceeded to destroy the Cougars. Masterful performance by his defense and pumps on the ground. I was a believer again and look forward to seeing Donnell on the Browns or Niners roster in the future. I should've taken the Over on the Aztecs win total...my bad dudes.
The Cure bowl- Well this is where it all falls apart and no cure is found with the golden goat nights. I don't know where this game was televised or possibly my direct tv representative decided I would've been much happier not seeing this performance on the field. I see 3 fumbles lost, UCF dominates time of possession, no yardage edge, yet they got hammered to oblivion. I couldn't have been more wrong on this one and I chalk this up as a failure to read the weather report and not giving Wuffs more respect. Frosty gets a pass because its his rookie year but I will remember this.....meltdown.
Cam Bowl- Okay we look good here and finally find a winner after passing on some decent reads and losing with UCF. I've already posted elsewhere that this was probably the best game to start the bowl season. Coaching and defense did play a role but both sides were very good. I have nothing but respect for Candle and what Toledo is doing the game could easily have gone Toledo's way and even the missed FG was borderline. 0 turnovers, interesting play calls, a duel threat white Lamb, Hunt N Cox over 100 yards, Logan 250 2TD's. Good one, if I had to do it over I should pass on this game and just enjoy it.
New Orleans- I saw the final few plays of the first half. Score is 14-14 and ULL QB with a suspicious mustache throws a pick from around the 10 yard line directly to eager SOmiss beaver. I had the feeling that the Over was torched at that exact moment. I hope he has a great christmas and they did do a great job keeping us intertained with the final 7 minutes of the game. 28-21 and ULL is running the 2 minute drill and it looked like an absolute abortion yet they still had ULL and over backers sweating. How do you play 12 games or whatever and have no idea what to do in those situations? They are ground based attack and I respect that so we have to let it be. I have to say I secretly like that McGuire guy for ULL. His feet are soft and his vision to see certain angles as a running back are impressive. I never heard of him before and no idea what his numbers are this year but I'm gonna be looking for him on draft day. Southern Miss looked like the more complete team and they deservedly won this game. Emperor Ito, Mullens, and that poor WR named after alcohol and it's effects were fun to watch.
Record on Golden Goat
1-2
0-1 exotic parlay not posted
Miami Beach Balls bowl- I cannot make an official selection here because I have things to do today. I did check the weather on this game and the line literally spoke to me in subtle ways -12 O/U69. This is shaping up to be an Otterbox kind of play where we lay some serious wood in a golden hurricane but I'm not quite sure I can bring myself to do.
Statistically speaking this Tulsa team looks like bad news for the Chippewas but I'm banking that the entire 295 fans are squarely against another team named Hurricane inhabiting their AO. I think that could possibly tip the scales from a neutral site in the CMich favor.
Just some bonus information but the Chippewas spent some charitable time in a childrens hospital and I know they want to go out and play well for them. The kids may be overjoyed at a competitive game and lots of scoring at the nurses station could boost morale levels.
Games are played on the field though and not on a forum so I think it is very possible for either team to cash in their chips.
Well I haven't tapped out yet even though this is a disaster of a thread. I really should be sticking with NBA and the NFL only right now but I will continue to chuck darts during this bowl season, regardless of being down 4 units. Tempted to drop the unit size to 1/2 even though it crushes my breakeven point and puts added pressure on my square handicapping abilities. I played Memphis yesterday with the forum after reading a thread and eventually playing poker with someone who TOUTED and I later learned to be a liar. I am not angry as I have supported many losers in my lifetime but it was a lesson learned. Thankfully my unit size is only 25k per play + or - some zeros.
I signed up for the bowl contest with 2 others and I submitted 8 picks to our fearless chalk leader and they were completely ignored. It's nice knowing my opinion was respected and I hope the plays I submitted go 8-0. I also signed up for LT's contest as well but I doubt I will take that seriously right now considering I'm busy enough losing 4 units of broccoli here. Maybe I should just fade myself for the betpoint contest and see what happens. That seems ridiculous. It will be a christmas miracle if the bankroll holds up at this rate.
Poinsettia Bowl Cowboys vs Cougars. Looking at the last 10 these guys have played reveals 9-1 SU in favor of BYU and 6-1 ATS for BYU as well. We have the backup QB going for BYU in Mangum but he has played before and I don't remember it being that much of a dropoff from TH. I watched Wyoming vs Nebraska and was impressed and they soundly beat Utah State a common opponent of BYU this year. Weather looks like 40ish degrees with light rain as the game goes. This line looks like it's asking for Wyoming money and that is not a good sign. Brian Hill is going to have a hard time getting going and they lost a starter on both the O and D line down the stretch, makes it very hard to back the Cowboys here. This version of the Cowboys looks much better however and going against a backup qb, even if decent, I wonder just how effective he will be running that Cougar offense. We have seen shades of the past this year with Army winning and I think we might see an early 2000's Wyoming/BYU game. I'll say 34-24
2001 41-34
2002 31-35
2003 10-13
2016 ????
Play on Wyoming +11.5
Okay so I finally hit a winner last night with the final score 24-21. I had a decent read on the QB situation at BYU as Mangum didn't do much and even the lone touchdown pass was a pinball in the endzone that could've been intercepted. The thing I didn't account for was just how much better the line was for BYU on both sides of the ball. They looked much more physical and while the RB had a field day I believe a lot of that was due to the O-Line. Sad story about the coach losing his baby on BYU but while they may not have covered, happy he got a bowl win. Joshua Allen on the Cowboys looks like a winner to me. He made a poor decision down the stretch to throw across body into traffic but his ability to feel and trust his offensive line was pretty incredible. I swear it looked like a sure fire sack at least three times and he had an uncanny ability to step out of the pocket at just the right times. I only watched the second half mind you but like I said, I'd already seen him against Neb. I'm not sure if this is accurate but I swear I saw #5 playing on both sides of the ball for Wyoming and it would make sense because he looked a little tired or not explosive. A good defensive line can do that to you though. Anyway I think Allen needs to get a little weight on him but nice find for Wyoming.
Famous Tater bowl. This thing has moved 3 points in Ram favor with a slight uptick to the Over 64.5. I did some research on the history here and everything Idaho. Pretty impressive that Coach Petrino got this team to a bowl considering 1-11, 1-10, 4-8 and now 8-4. This team is moving down after next year and I think about the motivations to win this game. It's basically a home game but we saw New Mexico not cover in a situation similar this year (they were a chalk however.) Both teams are sporting average defenses and the natural inclination is to take the Over in this game. The problem with the total is it hasn't moved much even with all the squares like me betting on it. It feels like the ULL game where if you think the dog can fight here then the over is a possibility. On the otherside it's been posted that the one constant this bowl season has been the Under so that along with 20 degree weather make this also attractive. Statistically it says these two have given up around 58 points combined per game. Where this data is relevant, I'm not sure yet. Just because red hit on the roulette wheel doesn't necessarily mean it's red again. The line screams at me to play Colorado State and back Bobo the former Bulldog but I honestly cannot choose a side here.
LEAN Under 65
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