[JTrain]

These are plays from some systems described in Black Haze's 2012 bowl thread. I believe he went 19-9 that year. The stats have not been updated.

System #1 - Play on Dogs of 4-11 pts from 12/25 to 12/31. 53-29 ATS

Vandy +4
North Texas +10
Minnesota +9.5
Baylor +7.5
Northwestern +5.5
Indiana +7.5
South Carolina +10.5
Arkansas +7


System #2 - Play Against FAVS that are 3-0 su,ats L3 gms, covered by 3 or more pts last gm, vs opp off Loss that allows 27 or less pts/gm. 17-1 ATS

Wake Forest +12.5
Florida St. +6.5
Iowa +2.5
Auburn +3 - Oklahoma allows 29.7 ppg but it wasn't clear if BlackHaze was referring to the team or the opponent.


System #3 - Play Against Pre-New Years Day FAVS who won 8 or less gms, avg 121.5 131.5< rush/gm, vs opp who rushes for 140>ypg. 19-4 ATS

Minnesota +9.5
Iowa +2.5

I raised the rushing limit 10 yards so we can actually get a couple plays


System #4 - Play UNDER, 2 teams in Non-BCS conf. 22-46 UNDER

UTSA-NM under
Houston-SDSU under
Ark St-UCF under
AppSt-Toledo under
SM-ULL under
CMU-Tulsa under
Mem-WKU under
BYU-Wyo under
CSU-Idaho under
EMU-OldDom under
LaTech-Navy under
Ohio-Troy under
MTSU-Hawaii under
Army-NT under
South Alabama-AF under


System #5 - Play on FAVS of 4 or less pts w/less than 39 days rest off SU win scoring 46+pts. 17-0 SU, 16-1 ATS

LSU -3.5


System #6- Play Favs on Moneyline if they have worse SU record. 33-9 SU

UCF ML
CSU ML
LaTech ML
Miss St ML
Miami ML
Tenn ML
LSU ML
Wisconsin ML
USC ML



= more than one play

[scratbandit]

Thanks for your effort in your post.

[gojetsgomoxies]

JTrain,

i saw this in on another website - consistent with stuff i'd said earlier..... 3 different implementations of similar ideas.

1) BET better rush offense ..................

2) BET better rush offense and better rush defense........ i'm guessing this will cut down the # of bets alot.

3) BET teams that average more than 200 yards rushing per game. i assume if there are 2 teams that qualify, then NO PLAY

my note: one thing about averaging 200 yards rushing per game is that the list of teams will be combo/hybrid of 1) very high rushing totals; 2) very good teams.

basically i figure the idea is that the teams aren't very sharp (motivated??) for bowl games so the teams go back to basics i.e. run the ball. and running doesn't require too much timing/precision.

[JTrain]

System #1 - Play on Dogs of 4-11 pts from 12/25 to 12/31. 53-29 ATS

Vandy +4
North Texas +10
Minnesota +9.5
Baylor +7.5
Northwestern +5.5
Indiana +7.5
South Carolina +10.5
Arkansas +7


System #2 - Play Against FAVS that are 3-0 su,ats L3 gms, covered by 3 or more pts last gm, vs opp off Loss that allows 27 or less pts/gm. 17-1 ATS

Wake Forest +12.5
Florida St. +6.5
Iowa +2.5
Auburn +3 - Oklahoma allows 29.7 ppg but it wasn't clear if BlackHaze was referring to the team or the opponent.


System #3 - Play Against Pre-New Years Day FAVS who won 8 or less gms, avg 121.5 131.5< rush/gm, vs opp who rushes for 140>ypg. 19-4 ATS

Minnesota +9.5
Iowa +2.5

I raised the rushing limit 10 yards so we can actually get a couple plays


System #4 - Play UNDER, 2 teams in Non-BCS conf. 22-46 UNDER

UTSA-NM under
Houston-SDSU under
Ark St-UCF under
AppSt-Toledo under
SM-ULL under
CMU-Tulsa under
Mem-WKU under
BYU-Wyo under
CSU-Idaho under
EMU-OldDom under
LaTech-Navy under
Ohio-Troy under
MTSU-Hawaii under
Army-NT under
South Alabama-AF under


System #5 - Play on FAVS of 4 or less pts w/less than 39 days rest off SU win scoring 46+pts. 17-0 SU, 16-1 ATS

LSU -3.5


System #6- Play Favs on Moneyline if they have worse SU record. 33-9 SU

UCF ML
CSU ML
LaTech ML
Miss St ML
Miami ML
Tenn ML
LSU ML
Wisconsin ML
USC ML

[JTrain]

JTrain,

i saw this in on another website - consistent with stuff i'd said earlier..... 3 different implementations of similar ideas.

1) BET better rush offense ..................

2) BET better rush offense and better rush defense........ i'm guessing this will cut down the # of bets alot.

3) BET teams that average more than 200 yards rushing per game. i assume if there are 2 teams that qualify, then NO PLAY

my note: one thing about averaging 200 yards rushing per game is that the list of teams will be combo/hybrid of 1) very high rushing totals; 2) very good teams.

basically i figure the idea is that the teams aren't very sharp (motivated??) for bowl games so the teams go back to basics i.e. run the ball. and running doesn't require too much timing/precision.

Would like to see what the plays would be for #2.

[JTrain]

6/6 for unders so far

[gojetsgomoxies]

JTrain, thx. wasn't aware of the minor conference UNDERS........ i backtested something related to it - at least one team minor conference - and it's amazing.

same problem as every system..... you find a 65% moderate-long term winner that makes tons of sense and then you see a recent season where it went 1 for 6 or something similar......... something i have to get my head around.

[gojetsgomoxies]

so the memphis went OVER ... just barely. i was surprised the total was so high.

but BYU-Wyoming is very low scoring so far. so that one is looking good.

[gojetsgomoxies]

i have non-big 5 UNDERs at 7-1.... CSU-Idaho first quarter so far = UNDERish play...

[gojetsgomoxies]

wow............ CSU-Idaho scored 111 points. ZERO in the 1st quarter.

[JTrain]

System #1 - Play on Dogs of 4-11 pts from 12/25 to 12/31. 53-29 ATS

Vandy +4
North Texas +10
Minnesota +9.5
Baylor +7.5
Northwestern +5.5
Indiana +7.5
South Carolina +10.5
Arkansas +7


System #2 - Play Against FAVS that are 3-0 su,ats L3 gms, covered by 3 or more pts last gm, vs opp off Loss that allows 27 or less pts/gm. 17-1 ATS

Wake Forest +12.5
Florida St. +6.5
Iowa +2.5
Auburn +3 - Oklahoma allows 29.7 ppg but it wasn't clear if BlackHaze was referring to the team or the opponent.


System #3 - Play Against Pre-New Years Day FAVS who won 8 or less gms, avg 121.5 131.5< rush/gm, vs opp who rushes for 140>ypg. 19-4 ATS

Minnesota +9.5
Iowa +2.5

I raised the rushing limit 10 yards so we can actually get a couple plays


System #4 - Play UNDER, 2 teams in Non-BCS conf. 22-46 UNDER

UTSA-NM under
Houston-SDSU under
Ark St-UCF under
AppSt-Toledo under
SM-ULL under
CMU-Tulsa under
Mem-WKU under
BYU-Wyo under
CSU-Idaho under
EMU-OldDom under
LaTech-Navy under
Ohio-Troy under
MTSU-Hawaii under
Army-NT under
South Alabama-AF under


System #5 - Play on FAVS of 4 or less pts w/less than 39 days rest off SU win scoring 46+pts. 17-0 SU, 16-1 ATS

LSU -3.5


System #6- Play Favs on Moneyline if they have worse SU record. 33-9 SU

UCF ML
CSU ML
LaTech ML
Miss St ML
Miami ML
Tenn ML
LSU ML
Wisconsin ML
USC ML

[thekoreanmang]

Damn. These system picks seem spot on. Crazy how these situational plays almost seem impervious to any given year's randomness. Case in point: Minnesota's set scandal/player boycott drama.

[JTrain]

System one shooting for 8-0 with Arkansas +7

[thekoreanmang]

System one shooting for 8-0 with Arkansas +7

Seriously. Thanks for posting this. Do you know how far back the records are for?

It's crazy how situational stats like these apply well year after year. It seems like the situational trends that apply in a more general fashion to multiple teams across years work better than trends that only apply to a single team.

[JTrain]

Sorry I didn't catch Vandy was a loss.

[JTrain]

System #1 - Play on Dogs of 4-11 pts from 12/25 to 12/31. 53-29 ATS

Vandy +4
North Texas +10
Minnesota +9.5
Baylor +7.5
Northwestern +5.5
Indiana +7.5
South Carolina +10.5
Arkansas +7

FINISHED 6-2


System #2 - Play Against FAVS that are 3-0 su,ats L3 gms, covered by 3 or more pts last gm, vs opp off Loss that allows 27 or less pts/gm. 17-1 ATS

Wake Forest +12.5
Florida St. +6.5
Iowa +2.5
Auburn +3 - Oklahoma allows 29.7 ppg but it wasn't clear if BlackHaze was referring to the team or the opponent.


System #3 - Play Against Pre-New Years Day FAVS who won 8 or less gms, avg 121.5 131.5< rush/gm, vs opp who rushes for 140>ypg. 19-4 ATS

Minnesota +9.5
Iowa +2.5

I raised the rushing limit 10 yards so we can actually get a couple plays


System #4 - Play UNDER, 2 teams in Non-BCS conf. 22-46 UNDER

UTSA-NM under
Houston-SDSU under
Ark St-UCF under
AppSt-Toledo under
SM-ULL under
CMU-Tulsa under
Mem-WKU under
BYU-Wyo under
CSU-Idaho under
EMU-OldDom under
LaTech-Navy under
Ohio-Troy under
MTSU-Hawaii under
Army-NT under
South Alabama-AF under


System #5 - Play on FAVS of 4 or less pts w/less than 39 days rest off SU win scoring 46+pts. 17-0 SU, 16-1 ATS

LSU -3.5


System #6- Play Favs on Moneyline if they have worse SU record. 33-9 SU

UCF ML
CSU ML
LaTech ML
Miss St ML
Miami ML
Tenn ML
LSU ML
Wisconsin ML
USC ML

[thekoreanmang]

Hate to break it to you but Arkansas lost also.

[JTrain]

Hate to break it to you but Arkansas lost also.

[thekoreanmang]

Haha. Nice one. I bet the rest of the board except for the lone remaining under. Seems like it could be high scoring. Was thinking about betting on South Alabama +14 on that one. Not sure. In any event, thanks for posting these. Never seen them before but so glad you posted this year. Hopefully you're having a good bowling season.

[JTrain]

System #1 - Play on Dogs of 4-11 pts from 12/25 to 12/31. 53-29 ATS

Vandy +4
North Texas +10
Minnesota +9.5
Baylor +7.5
Northwestern +5.5
Indiana +7.5
South Carolina +10.5
Arkansas +7

FINISHED 6-2

Bielema is fat


System #2 - Play Against FAVS that are 3-0 su,ats L3 gms, covered by 3 or more pts last gm, vs opp off Loss that allows 27 or less pts/gm. 17-1 ATS

Wake Forest +12.5
Florida St. +6.5
Iowa +2.5
Auburn +3 - Oklahoma allows 29.7 ppg but it wasn't clear if BlackHaze was referring to the team or the opponent.


System #3 - Play Against Pre-New Years Day FAVS who won 8 or less gms, avg 121.5 131.5< rush/gm, vs opp who rushes for 140>ypg. 19-4 ATS

Minnesota +9.5
Iowa +2.5

I raised the rushing limit 10 yards so we can actually get a couple plays


System #4 - Play UNDER, 2 teams in Non-BCS conf. 22-46 UNDER

UTSA-NM under
Houston-SDSU under
Ark St-UCF under
AppSt-Toledo under
SM-ULL under
CMU-Tulsa under
Mem-WKU under
BYU-Wyo under
CSU-Idaho under
EMU-OldDom under
LaTech-Navy under
Ohio-Troy under
MTSU-Hawaii under
Army-NT under
South Alabama-AF under

FINISHED 8-7


System #5 - Play on FAVS of 4 or less pts w/less than 39 days rest off SU win scoring 46+pts. 17-0 SU, 16-1 ATS

LSU -3.5

FINISHED 1-0

System #6- Play Favs on Moneyline if they have worse SU record. 33-9 SU

UCF ML
CSU ML
LaTech ML
Miss St ML
Miami ML
Tenn ML
LSU ML
Wisconsin ML
USC ML[/QUOTE]