1. #1
    jjgold
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    Boston College/Florida St Tonight

    Florida St been erratic all year

    Home -21

    A lot of points

  2. #2
    Itsamazing777
    Not interested....
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    bc backdoor likely

  3. #3
    triplecrown333
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    gonna pass on this, better cards in the nba tonight

  4. #4
    jjgold
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    Possible under

  5. #5
    survive
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    Pass. College hoops and USA vs Mexico futbol

  6. #6
    Sam Odom
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    jjgold is the hottest capper right now

    on an incredible run with real money bets

  7. #7
    deuceswild
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    BC should be a play as pathetic as they were last week. Think I had 25.5 ag Louisville. Took a shower it was 21-0 , dead serious.

  8. #8
    LT Profits
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    PASS-adena, my model and linesmakers are pretty much in sync here. I get FSU -22.56 and 47.56.

  9. #9
    jjgold
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    Does the game mean much for Florida State?

  10. #10
    LT Profits
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    Down to -19.5, I still would never lay it though.

  11. #11
    rizespor
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    Quote Originally Posted by LT Profits View Post
    Down to -19.5, I still would never lay it though.
    Why??? What's the point of having a model if you're going to ignore perceived value?

  12. #12
    LT Profits
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    Quote Originally Posted by rizespor View Post
    Why??? What's the point of having a model if you're going to ignore perceived value?
    I almost never lay more than -10 in ATS sports, model can't account for easing up or pulling starters with big lead leaving backdoor open.

  13. #13
    Sam Odom
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    Quote Originally Posted by LT Profits View Post
    Down to -19.5, I still would never lay it though.

    JJ got the Sharp #

  14. #14
    INVEGA MAN
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    BC offense is bad

  15. #15
    rizespor
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    Quote Originally Posted by LT Profits View Post
    I almost never lay more than -10 in ATS sports, model can't account for easing up or pulling starters with big lead leaving backdoor open.
    Well isnt your model based on past results? So wouldn't all of that be factored in already?

  16. #16
    deuceswild
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    Teased FSU and Over

  17. #17
    LT Profits
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    Quote Originally Posted by rizespor View Post
    Well isnt your model based on past results? So wouldn't all of that be factored in already?
    How could you possibly account for Florida State pulling starters with say a 24-point lead in the fourth quarter and then allowing a "meaningless" late touchdown? Remember, model results assume an honest all-out effort for 60 minutes.

  18. #18
    funnyb25
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    Pass

    Will be studying for the weekend

  19. #19
    rizespor
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    Quote Originally Posted by LT Profits View Post
    How could you possibly account for Florida State pulling starters with say a 24-point lead in the fourth quarter and then allowing a "meaningless" late touchdown? Remember, model results assume an honest all-out effort for 60 minutes.
    Well haven't they played games in the past where they were big favorites?? So let's say they jumped out to a 24 pt lead and then allowed a td late. The data you get from that game will have factored in the "meaningless" touchdown. I mean it still counts right? The points allowed, the yards allowed. Conversely let's say they didn't ease up and didn't allow the backdoor td. Then wouldn't that be reflected in the data as well?

  20. #20
    LT Profits
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    Quote Originally Posted by rizespor View Post
    Well haven't they played games in the past where they were big favorites?? So let's say they jumped out to a 24 pt lead and then allowed a td late. The data you get from that game will have factored in the "meaningless" touchdown. I mean it still counts right? The points allowed, the yards allowed. Conversely let's say they didn't ease up and didn't allow the backdoor td. Then wouldn't that be reflected in the data as well?
    No because my model does not literally include points scored and points against because those are meaningless stats by themselves. It only includes relevant stats that have a direct correlation to points, or to put it another way, what the points scored/allowed SHOULD be based on those stats.

    Besides, there are thousands of bettable games each year, there is no need to bet double-digit favorites and then have to sweat out backdoors at the end. I sleep better avoiding big favorites.

  21. #21
    rizespor
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    Quote Originally Posted by LT Profits View Post
    No because my model does not literally include points scored and points against because those are meaningless stats by themselves. It only includes relevant stats that have a direct correlation to points, or to put it another way, what the points scored/allowed SHOULD be based on those stats.

    Besides, there are thousands of bettable games each year, there is no need to bet double-digit favorites and then have to sweat out backdoors at the end. I sleep better avoiding big favorites.
    Right well I'm sure there's more advanced metrics used than points allowed, just meant that in general the game situation should have already presented itself in past games so it should be somewhat factored in. But anyway that's fair enough. I don't particularly like playing large favorites either!

  22. #22
    jjgold
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    Based on this thread may be a small small play on Florida State

  23. #23
    stackz125
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    Quote Originally Posted by jjgold View Post
    Based on this thread may be a small small play on Florida State
    JJ do you have a model or is just based on gut feeling???

  24. #24
    BigdaddyQH
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    This game is throwaway game for State. B.C needs it to stay in the hunt for a bowl game. They also play well ATS at Florida State. The line is dropping, down to 19 in some Vegas shops. If anything, Under 47 looks decent. Pass.

  25. #25
    deuceswild
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    BC doesn't have the athleticism on offense to put up a contest. Still teased FSU and Under.

    * this late in the season fade the line moves.

  26. #26
    jjgold
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    These night games seem so tough

  27. #27
    paco
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    Bc shutout cashes the under

  28. #28
    thellama
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    These Thur and Fri college games have been all chalk all the time.

  29. #29
    Time is Money
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    Quote Originally Posted by paco View Post
    Bc shutout cashes the under
    Do you just run around mushing?!

  30. #30
    jjgold
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    Would of lost again

    unreal

    2 teams playing

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