yellowjackets -6.5 __undervalued here! much higher rated than duke! revenge match too!
eagles -7 __homies undervalued here too! at 5-3 they arent good certainly but not doormats either. last year they were doormats and lost by 15 to the redhawks. so this is a revenge match because the eagles r most certainly improved and
definitely rate much higher than the doormat redhawks. redhawks coming off a couple wins, but against bottom dwellers, with dead even game stats vs each opp, but needing the benefit of turnovers to win each. meanwhile eagles coming off a loss to
w. michigan - playing them very tough - putting up
471 yds offense - despite -1 net turnovers -
on the road -
at a ranked team! this revenge scenario just screams rebound at home w/ a beat-down on a weaker opponent
adding:
notredame PK* __woulda grabbed +2 but waiting on injury updates; it appears hurricanes defense is hurtin esp. on the D-line! this should give kizer extra time to find receivers and an easier go running the ball (finally) although who knows - the canes backups could step up bigtime. or not! still, playing at home in what i consider a
MUST WIN scenario or kiss a bowl game goodbye, the chance of favorable results in the trenches is likely to the irish here. and that makes all the diff. irish have lost 5 thus far, yes, but look at the schedule/results --
all 5 by just a single possession,
and bad luck playing a role against them. i have the 'canes rated higher but take away their 2 easy wins over cupcakes and they r just 2-3. and this is a road game, w/ D-line issues, against a desperate opp. i see the "luck of the irish" as overdue for a breakthru win against a decent opp and i would b saying the same for at least a cover as a dog even if canes werent hurtin defensively
deacons -6.5* __actually i expected a line of -9.5, so when i saw -7 i circled it and waited. good value here imo on a home team (5-2)
playing a significantly weaker opponent (4-3). wake has lost their only 2 games to very good opps - both on the road - and playing FSU tough last game! but they have won 3 against opps about equal to themselves and
all r rated higher than army! meanwhile in their most recent 4 games army lost at weakling buffalo, lost at duke by 7 (remember wake thumped duke by 10
on the road!), then army beatup on a cupcake as expected,
but wet-the-bed w/ an embarassing 17 pt loss AT HOME to another weakling last week! deacons have also had an
extra week to rest, heal, and prepare for army. no significant injuries. barring bad luck im expecting a rout.
adding:
utes +10.5* __ waited and got the all important hook. while i have the huskies (7-0) rated higher than utah (7-1) its not by much! utes have defeated competitive teams at rice-eccles (byu and usc) as well as defeating ucla on the road last week. yes, huskies r slightly better than those squads too, but utes dont need to win this game for me to get a +10.5 cover - just keep it close - although i think this game is definitiely in a group of plausible upsets! the only GOOD team washington has faced this year (of near the calibre of utah) is stanford (4-3) - which although it was a blowout win - it was at husky stadium, not on the road. all their other opps were significantly weaker with each having only 2 wins on the season, except mighty idaho (4-4). they came dangerously close to losing at 2-5 arizona - needing OT to escape! so one could say the huskies r largely untested, and not at all on the road. utah is a formidable foe at a hostile venue. huskies may even lose outright, but i do expect at least a utes cover at +10.5
adding:
2nd half deacons -4
2nd half eagles -4.5+100
adding:
ole'miss +4.5 __i like decent teams in close calls when they get free pts at home