[Ralphie Halves]

Starting to see these a lot. I think exposing them could help. I've been betting NCAAF for 10 years now, it's the only sport I do well semi-consistently. And I've learned how useless and often costly these angles can be.

1) "Trap Games" -- Every time somebody sees a good team as a short road favorite against a lesser team, something triggers in their brain and they say "Trap"!! No such thing. I have friends on the other side of the counter, and they laugh at this idea of a trap game. Just because you can remember the time that one favorite lost outright (ignoring the 4 out of 5 that week that won and covered), doesn't mean Vegas is trying to trick you. Think about it, how "tricky" is it when it happens every week, and you spot it right away? This year in particular, certain teams are just bigger, faster, and more well coached than others -- disproportionately so, so when I see them as a short road favorite, I've been pounding them, and winning often.

2) Historical records - Different than historical trends, those can be useful. But sensationalizing a stat by saying mentioning something that happened in 1998 is retarded. "Wack-Ass College has beaten Jizzmonkey State 16 out of the last 19 games on the road". That's great, but I am 100% sure that something that happened back in 1998 has Z-E-R-O bearing on what happens in this week's game. I promise. I got into this with BigDaddy a couple years back with PSU/Maryland when he was trying to use a junk stat like this, and I just saw blazer put one up today. Blazer puts a lot of things up in jest, so I never know if he's serious, but just don't take anything like that as real betting information.

3) Emotions - Pretty much whenever you hear phrases like...
- "Revenge game"
- "They're hungry!"
- "They're playing for their coach"
- "They're going to lay it all out there this week"

As opposed to what???? The games where they just decide to fukk off? Guys, the season is only 12 games long, you need to go balls-to-the-wall 100% every game (unless it's a pay-for-play type deal, but those are one-offs). Players don't get a chance to slack off or under-prepare one week, or anything like that. I had frat brothers who played football for our FCS school, one that sucked by the way, and their only focus for the whole week was the team they were playing. They were no more or less intense from one week to the next. They didn't try really really hard to beat their rival, but only played half-speed against somebody else. It's nonsense. And you're not in the Michigan State locker room, you have no idea what the collective mood of the team is, stop trying to guess. TOO much emotion can get interfere and make you play dumb anyway. It's not something you ever want to try and measure.

Sometimes people will throw these garbage angles out there, and their side will still win anyway, but it wasn't the reason why.

Take these out of your arsenal, and you'll lose less games, and cutting your losses down affects your bottom line every bit as much as winning.

[agendaman]

i take teams whose coaches don;t call off the dogs e.g coupla weeks ago michigan waxed rutgers 78-0 i take 5 total mismatches and place a 10.5 pt. teaser on the favorite i cash small but cash a lot just my .02 p.s. a lot of what you say is true revenge--win one for the gipper etc. BS

[gojetsgomoxies]

people on here seem to like "letdown" and "look-ahead" games but i'd really like to see someone try to quantify it. i agree with you that they cite 1 or 2 examples to "prove" the concept. but i wonder "what about the other 400 games in last 5 years that qualify?".

one thing i've given much thought to recently is teams in new situations - say ascending washington vs. descending oregon -... i'm really starting to think people anchor too much to the past. and i was certainly guilty of that till recently OR maybe i'd say that it's my first instinct (washington will feel some pressure and oregon is pretty fixable).. i think i will do a thread on this. maybe handicap games by starting power ratings this year and comparing to spread at game time. and you'd take the "anchored prediction". i think it might be a pretty big loser ATS.

[BigdaddyQH]

The problem is that too many people in here want you to think they know what they are doing, but they do not have a clue. "Trap" games are my favorite. These pea brained idiots actually think that they know more than the line maker and his computers. At best, you MAY get 1 to 2 legitimate "Trap" games a year. That is it. What does not help is the fact that these fools on T.V. adopt these sayings and do the same thing the fools do in here.

As far as "letdown" and "Look ahead" games are concerned, a lot of that depends on the team and the circumstances surrounding these games. Injuries, Head Coaches being friends with the opposing Head Coaches, and other factors can make a difference. It is an individual game call.

[HeeluvaGuy]

Good topic. I'm a little more middle of the road on this stuff. I think there is definitely value in looking at where a game falls in a schedule to try and anticipate motivations, etc. That said, The trap, lookahead, letdown angles are probably overused.

Historical data also also probably has a place. If you ever look at Marc Lawrence's Playbook, it is filled with historical data. That's not my favorite type of handicapping, but I do give it a look, mostly to see if I'm running up against a huge streak of some kind.

The bottom line for me is that these are all data points. What you do with them is up to you. However, anyone looking for one angle to make picks is probably not long for this endeavor.

[Ralphie Halves]

Historical data also also probably has a place. If you ever look at Marc Lawrence's Playbook, it is filled with historical data. That's not my favorite type of handicapping, but I do give it a look, mostly to see if I'm running up against a huge streak of some kind.

Yeah, that's what I was alluding to. Historical trends are like saying "Teams coming off a loss after a bye week...", stuff like that. People have made careers off of that type of data.

Saying "USC is 15-1 in their last 16 against Iowa" on the other hand is ridiculous and useless.

[ZINISTER]

"They are playing for their coach." is without question a reality. The kids at LSU had had enough of Miles. Their in game effort now Les is gone is WAY better. People gravitate to good people. The kids know if you care about them or if you just care about yourself and winning. What I mean by that if you have ever been a player at a D-1 school, the coach goes to bat for ya when something bad is brought down on the team by administration. The kids can see if you are going to bat for the long snapper as hard as you are going for the QB. Team chemistry is essential! I coached for 15 years and I always felt my kids respected me because I was consistent with everybody. I had one of my best athletes I ever coached in his final year with me. I had coached him for 4 years and he never did a fockin thing wrong. He would run the punishment with some of his team mates to keep them motivated. The first game his last year he helped a kid up from the other team. It might be wrong, but I'm Old School. You never help the opponent during a game. I gave him punishment and his Dad addressed me and said he will not be doing any punishment for his actions. The kid spoke up and told his Dad that it was team rules and he was all about being a team player. The kid knew if he didn't do punishment he didn't play. He also knew I wouldn't treat him any different because I was so consistent with one for all, all for one mentality. I assure you Playing for the Coach is Real!

[ZINISTER]

So my angle is when you see a team give up on their coach. Like LSU did. The Players can only play as good as they play. When they play for their coach, they just try their best. I'm not saying they play better then they ever have.

[gojetsgomoxies]

i agree with alot of what's being said......... and i agree that most of these terms probably have empirical validity but are overused in a "rooster sure" manner

definitely teams doing well have amazing momentum and teams with frustrating seasons either check out mentally or don't have the withstand the pressure (i.e. not much coaches can do being stuck playing 265 lb true freshman at DT)....

[BigdaddyQH]

Lawrence is a technical 'capper. He has good information, but it should NOT be used as a primary source of making a pick. Here is an example of what he does. Utah was 10-2 off a SU/ATS Weekday win. On 9/23, a Friday Night, Utah defeated and covered against USC. That following Saturday they lost outright and failed to cover against Cal, a 2 point favorite. Utah was 0-4 ATS after their game Against Arizona. This year they failed to cover against Oregon State after their game against Arizona, continuing the trend. Alabama was 6-1 at Tennessee and covered. They were 3-1 hosting Kentucky and did not cover. The list goes on and on. He hits around 53%, which is not a real big money maker.

I use Fundamental, Situational, and Technical 'capping when developing my potential plays. If you study the losing picks of cappers in here (and there are many to choose from) you will notice that few, if any of these cappers use all three types of 'capping. Instead they tend to zero in on one type, or worse, tend to wager in what the "think" may happen, a guaranteed overall losing strategy.

[HeeluvaGuy]

The most ridiculous "angle" for me is the notion that a team is "due." As soon as I see that word I stop reading.

[BigdaddyQH]

I could never figure that one out. Why are they "due"? Was the plane late? Is one of the song girls 9 months pregnant?

[reigle9]

Any trend for the sake of a trend.

[Ralphie Halves]

So my angle is when you see a team give up on their coach. Like LSU did. The Players can only play as good as they play. When they play for their coach, they just try their best. I'm not saying they play better then they ever have.

When I posted that, I meant it not as playing for a brand new coach. I agree, when the old one goes away mid-season, it's a good sign that the team will play better the next week. I cashed Purdue on this idea last week.

What I meat it as, was playing for a coach that had been there the whole way. As if before they weren't going to play for him at all, but now they are all of a sudden. Trash logic.

[BigdaddyQH]

Look at Charlie Strong. Half of his players love him and the other half hate him. That is because he has this crappy "my way or the highway" attitude that turns a lot of people off. If anyone believes that the Texas team (as a group) is going to play harder to save this fools arse, they are the type of people I want to wager against. Ralphie is right. Trash Logic.

[ZINISTER]

I understand. If the kids like you as a person they will play and try their best. When they make a mistake for an arshole coach deep inside they can care less.

[Buffalo Nickle]

So my angle is when you see a team give up on their coach. Like LSU did. The Players can only play as good as they play. When they play for their coach, they just try their best. I'm not saying they play better then they ever have.

Did they give up or play against Auburn and Wisconsin run defenses. It helps when you run the ball and then play Southern Mississippi and Mississippi with swiss cheese run defenses versus two of the top Ds in the country.

Let's see how much harder they play against the Florida and Alabama defenses.

[Buffalo Nickle]

Look at Charlie Strong. Half of his players love him and the other half hate him. That is because he has this crappy "my way or the highway" attitude that turns a lot of people off. If anyone believes that the Texas team (as a group) is going to play harder to save this fools arse, they are the type of people I want to wager against. Ralphie is right. Trash Logic.

Who says half his team hates him? It seems his whole team loves him. They just aren't very good right now.

Texas' problem now is defense. Whatever you may say about Strong, you cannot say he cannot coach defense. He has proven that.

[gojetsgomoxies]

i like quite a few things about marc lawrence and his magazine. mostly his writeups and general info.

but i think some of his game picks are ridiculous in their complexity and it's often hard to understand the underlying logic.

i think most picks should have some basis in behavioural science whether it's the players/teams/coaches or the betting public.

[ZINISTER]

Didn't use the word HARDER. I stated they play their best. They are more prone to make mistakes for a coach they don't like. When you aim to please someone you like you take the extra care to prepare the nice meal, get the right card on their b-day, etc. When you don't like em you buy McD's, grab any card, etc. Human nature is to elevate to a person you care for and like. Athletes determination can improve with them feeling better about life and giving them the extra motivation to do a good job. If you had an intruder in your home and he was going to KILL your kids would you try HARDER then if it was your mother-in-law you can't stand? Or would you think about the money you will save with 2 less kids? LMFAO Most of ya don't know these emotions because you are so selfish! Most of you talk about sports and really never tried to excel at any of them to your fullest potential. That's what you are missing!

[BigdaddyQH]

Who says half his team hates him? It seems his whole team loves him. They just aren't very good right now.

Texas' problem now is defense. Whatever you may say about Strong, you cannot say he cannot coach defense. He has proven that.

I cannot say that Strong cannot coach defense? Do you intentionally go out of your way to make a fool out of yourself? He gives up 45 points to OU, and 24 to a very poor Kansas State team. Before that his teams gave up 47 to the Irish, 50 to Cal (and it should have been more) and 49 to Okie State. Strong is a crap coach, period! He has had three recruiting classes now. His team is actually worse than his first team, that won 6 games. They may lose 8 games this season. These are, for the most part, his kids. Many started last season and they seem to be getting worse. Some left because they got tired of Strong and his "holier than thou" attitude.

[BigdaddyQH]

Did they give up or play against Auburn and Wisconsin run defenses. It helps when you run the ball and then play Southern Mississippi and Mississippi with swiss cheese run defenses versus two of the top Ds in the country.

Let's see how much harder they play against the Florida and Alabama defenses.

Auburn's rush defense ranks 30th in the nation. That is nowhere near a "top D". Get your facts straight.

[Buffalo Nickle]

Auburn's rush defense ranks 30th in the nation. That is nowhere near a "top D". Get your facts straight.

They have played Clemson and LSU, you dope. This is what FOX News can do to a man's mind. Idiot NoIQ looks at total yardage to determine top rushing defenses without looking at competition.

[Buffalo Nickle]

I cannot say that Strong cannot coach defense? Do you intentionally go out of your way to make a fool out of yourself? He gives up 45 points to OU, and 24 to a very poor Kansas State team. Before that his teams gave up 47 to the Irish, 50 to Cal (and it should have been more) and 49 to Okie State. Strong is a crap coach, period! He has had three recruiting classes now. His team is actually worse than his first team, that won 6 games. They may lose 8 games this season. These are, for the most part, his kids. Many started last season and they seem to be getting worse. Some left because they got tired of Strong and his "holier than thou" attitude.

Strong was one of the top DCs in college football, you dope. His first Texas defense was one of the best in the country. Strong may not be the best head coach in the world but he can coach D. He does not have a good defense now because he has been playing young players.

[Ralphie Halves]

Not sure if Strong really does have that "My way or the highway" attitude, but if he does, my only piece of advice would be to try and avoid 5 star recruits and the high 4's that are from Texas.

Sounds crazy, why would you do that? Nowadays, you can't be that no-nonsense and have these kids that have been coddled and babied their entire lives. It conflicts. On the opposite side, you have Hugh Freeze, who looks like he doesn't do anything at all from a discipline standpoint. The answer, as usual, is somewhere in the middle.

You can get away with whatever coaching style you want if you're a legend -- but Charlie isn't. He didn't have as high level of recruits at Louisville, combined with hitting the lottery with Teddy Bridgewater, who was the perfect player in every way. It's a different world now, he needs to adjust. It may be too late though. Hope it's not.

[Buffalo Nickle]

Not sure if Strong really does have that "My way or the highway" attitude, but if he does, my only piece of advice would be to try and avoid 5 star recruits and the high 4's that are from Texas.

Sounds crazy, why would you do that? Nowadays, you can't be that no-nonsense and have these kids that have been coddled and babied their entire lives. It conflicts. On the opposite side, you have Hugh Freeze, who looks like he doesn't do anything at all from a discipline standpoint. The answer, as usual, is somewhere in the middle.

You can get away with whatever coaching style you want if you're a legend -- but Charlie isn't. He didn't have as high level of recruits at Louisville, combined with hitting the lottery with Teddy Bridgewater, who was the perfect player in every way. It's a different world now, he needs to adjust. It may be too late though. Hope it's not.

I don't see where Strong is having any trouble with his own recruits. He ran off some of Brown's guys. But Brown had apparently lost control and they were running wild. Strong did not have a lot of talent to work with except on defense when he took over. He had to play freshman and sophs in the secondary last year and was stuck with Tyrone Swoopes as his best QB who could not have started at most Div II schools.

Strong's teams at Texas seem to be poorly coached. He deserves at least another year with the talent he has recruited and the team he inherited which got Brown fired.

[Buffalo Nickle]

Didn't use the word HARDER. I stated they play their best. They are more prone to make mistakes for a coach they don't like. When you aim to please someone you like you take the extra care to prepare the nice meal, get the right card on their b-day, etc. When you don't like em you buy McD's, grab any card, etc. Human nature is to elevate to a person you care for and like. Athletes determination can improve with them feeling better about life and giving them the extra motivation to do a good job. If you had an intruder in your home and he was going to KILL your kids would you try HARDER then if it was your mother-in-law you can't stand? Or would you think about the money you will save with 2 less kids? LMFAO Most of ya don't know these emotions because you are so selfish! Most of you talk about sports and really never tried to excel at any of them to your fullest potential. That's what you are missing!

When I played sports, we excelled when we played bad teams and got kicked playing good teams. That seems to be what you are missing. LSU was not playing all that great the first half of the Southern Miss game.

LSU would have clocked both Southern Miss and Mississippi with Les Miles coaching. Neither of those teams could stop LSU's running game and Miles would have ran right over them.

We will see how much better these guys play when they need to pass the ball against good teams with that Purdue QB.

Haven't seen anywhere that LSU players did not like Miles. LSU fans did not like Miles. Big difference.

[Ralphie Halves]

I don't see where Strong is having any trouble with his own recruits. He ran off some of Brown's guys. But Brown had apparently lost control and they were running wild. Strong did not have a lot of talent to work with except on defense when he took over. He had to play freshman and sophs in the secondary last year and was stuck with Tyrone Swoopes as his best QB who could not have started at most Div II schools.

Strong's teams at Texas seem to be poorly coached. He deserves at least another year with the talent he has recruited and the team he inherited which got Brown fired.

I hope so too, and it's not like these kids are getting into a ton of trouble, so he has that part down so far I think.

His defenses look like super young defenses. Suuuuuuper slow to react, over-pursuing, getting beat badly off the line, dumb penalties, all of it. What is a better version of that, a D+?? That won't get him there.

[jackpot269]

teams that have a big win maybe an upset then play a big under dog the next week!! i like betting against them!! just saying!!

[Buffalo Nickle]

I hope so too, and it's not like these kids are getting into a ton of trouble, so he has that part down so far I think.

His defenses look like super young defenses. Suuuuuuper slow to react, over-pursuing, getting beat badly off the line, dumb penalties, all of it. What is a better version of that, a D+?? That won't get him there.

Yeah, his secondary was overmatched last year and I think his D Line is very young this year. He still has a very young D. He is getting things ironed out on offense although they are young too. All of his upperclassmen have been Brown guys so he really has not a chance to put his own team on the field. Next year will be a good judgment of what Strong has done at UT.

The thing about Strong's teams is just when you think they have no hope, they turn around and play great. If he can't put Top 25 teams on the field in the next two years, he deserves to get fired.