For our first Wednesday college football game of the year, we have Georgia Southern (3-1) @ Arkansas State (0-4). In recent years, these two teams have consistently been some of the more competitive teams in the Sun Belt Conference. It appears that trend may be changing this year, as Arkansas State has started off 0-4.
This season, Arkansas State has been relying solely on big plays to score. They have yet to record a scoring drive exceeding 6 plays. On the defensive side, Arkansas State has shown a major weakness in their run defense. This team allows 239 rushing yards/game, ranking them at 117th in FBS. Last week Arkansas State lost at home to Central Arkansas (an FCS team!).
Georgia Southern comes into this game averaging 318 yards/game on the ground (4th in FBS). Clearly, this team wants to pound the run and take control of time of possession. Defensively, they allow a total of 306 yards/game (16th in FBS), making them a relatively stout defense . Georgia Southern lost @ W. Michigan last week in a hard fought battle where they committed 4 turnovers and couldn't play their standard run game.
Bottom Line: Georgia Southern should run through this Ark St. defense like butter. If Ark St can't sustain a drive and they allow Georgia Southern to score early, Georgia Southern will dominate the time of possession and win this game by double digits.
The Pick: Georgia Southern -7 (Many books now posting at -7.5, buy the hook if you need to)