Week 4 Card: Another Batch will be released Saturday Morning
UConn -4 (-106) Risking 1.06 units to win 1 units
Although this UConn team’s offense has struggled the last few years, they are starting to gain some traction. They return 10 starters on offense, including QB Bryan Sherrifs who is a mobile dual threat QB, who should be able to rack up some yards against this slow Syracuse defense. Head Coach, Bob Diaco, is a strong defensive minded coach who has won the Broyles award in ’12 for his outstanding defense at Notre Dame that only allowed 12.8 ppg. His defensive implementation showed significant improvements last year in his 2nd year, despite having a horrible offense. Let’s hope this offense comes to life as 2nd year OC, Frank Verducci, has an experienced team back that should be familiar with his playbook. Syracuse had some key injuries on defense last week, including starting strong safety, Antwan Cordy, his backup, Devon Clarke, and CB, Juwan Dowels. On the other side we have a Syracuse team with a whole new coaching staff that will take time to adjust. Dino Babers has had some experience turning around bad programs but not in the first year and not in such a tough ACC conference that he has to face this season. Babers has been trying to install a quick snap up tempo offense, which will not be a good matchup if they start slow like they have against this clock controlling slow paced offense of U Conn. If they don’t get off to a good start, U Conn will surely wear down their depleted defense. Starting Syracuse QB, Eric Dungey has not had a lot of starting experience against good defenses and has struggled in the few he has faced. Syracuse has allowed 7.6 TFL (Rk#106) per game, and should give up a number more against a solid U Conn front. U Conn is 0-3 ATS to this point and very rarely do you see these types of trends continue as odds makers over adjust when number disproportionately lean to one side so this is giving us some value. The line has been all over the place from -6 to -3. Upset that I was unable to lock in at -3, I settled at -4 and do not think it will get any better by game time.
Florida +6.5 (-106) Risking 1.06 units to win 1 units
Another good spot to fade this over-rated Tennessee team; I have already talked a lot about the shittyness of Dobbs and this team so let’s talk about UF. UF will be the best defense this team has faced. They literally lead the league in a large number of defensive statistical categories (Rk#1) in all of the following categories, opponent yards per play 2.3, opponent yards per rush 1.3, opponent points per game 4.7, opponent points per play 0.084, and sack % at 23.19%. They are only ranked 10th vs. the pass allowing 4.9 yards per pass attempt. Albeit this is all against Umass, North Texas, and Kentucky, but at the same time these are not FCS teams, and these numbers are overwhelmingly good. Geoff Collins Defensive Coordinator enters his 2nd year with 6 returning starters on a defense that only allowed 18.3 ppg and 4.65 (Rk#8) in yards per play despite having an inept offense on the field. Giving us some additional value on this bet is the injury of starting QB for Florida, Jack Del Rio, but his backup Austin Appelby is more than capable senior backup with his fair share of experience we can rely on. Although his numbers from Purdue are not so glamorous, much of it can be attributed to a poor team and coaching at Purdue as a whole. Tennessee’s offense has also fumbled 18 times this season and recovered 15 times on their offense, unprecedented numbers of fortunate breaks that will not continue. We take the superior defense with this many points against a struggling QB all day long. If you can buy the half point (pickmonitor.com does not allow me to buy points for tracking purposes). But lock it in when you can because I feel like this line will drop by game time. The last two years this game has been decided by 1 point, which makes this line a little suspicious but is probably attributed to a market heavily betting Tennessee thanks to ESPN pundits.
Auburn +3.5 (-111) Risking 1.11 units to win 1 units
Gus Malzahn has finally not given the ball to Jeremy Johnson in the last two games. At the end of the Texas A&M game he even brought in James Franklin III and he provided enough spark in their offense to score a TD at the end of the game. This offense is not that bad, it’s just slow developing and lots of movement in the backfield which was a recipe for disaster against Miles Garret, Daeshon Hill and others that racked up 13 TFLs last game. I have to believe they win this one at home against this weak LSU team. They were able to rush for 4.37 yards per rush against TexasA&M despite all the sacks and TFL that are deducted from these numbers (why sacks are deducted from rush stats, we’ll never know) and racked up 26 first downs. In the last 3 years between these two teams, Auburn has been able to run the ball, rushing for 4.86 yards per carry and 671 total yards since Gus joined the Tigers. Last year they faced LSU early on in the season when J. Johnson was still starting, which led to a large blowout and a revenge scenario this year. Granted Fournette and this LSU team trampled on Auburn for 411 yards and 8.6 yards per carry too but Auburn defense has made big strides this season with its new DC. The biggest factor in this game will be the struggling LSU offense and more specifically their offensive line. They really struggled to move the ball last week even against a weak miss state defense, only passing for 71 yards. Their offensive line is very banged up with 3 of the 5 starters questionable for this game. I expect them to rotate often like they have been causing issues in the backfield. Take Auburn as the home dog and the points and expect a close game here. LSU has not been a good road team for the last 3 years against the SEC they are 4-7.
Iowa -12.5 (-106) Risking 1.06 units to win 1 units
Iowa lost last week to North Dakota State. An over-reaction would be saying this Iowa team is garbage and lost to a FCS team. In case you didn’t follow FCS football, let me give you some insight on this team. Since 2011, North Dakota State has won every national championship at the FCS level, that’s 5 straight years. They’ve been upsetting underprepared FBS teams all along the way. Iowa is a powerhouse team and it all starts with their amazing QB, CJ Beathard, who is easily top 5 college QBs and gets no recognition from the media. He was pretty banged up midway through the season last year and his performance dropped a bit, but hes still one of the best. They should have no problem moving the ball against a soft Rutgers defense. Their offense has consistently improved over the last 3 years and has been productive thus far, averaging 7 yards per play (Rk#11), 6.3 yards per rush (Rk#7), and 8.4 yards per pass (Rk#34) against FBS opponents. Beathard has thrown only 1 INT in the last 3 games. On the other side Rutgers comes in with a whole new coaching staff coming off a 4-8 season. Their offense has sputtered implementing its new spread attack averaging 4.9 yards per pass (Rk#118), and 3.9 yards per rush (Rk#81). Iowa’s defense returns 8 starters to a defense that ranked #18 in defensive pass efficiency allowed. CB Desmond King is one of the best in the country and won the Thorpe Award last year. I see no reason why Iowa should not cover this spread and think we are receiving some value since they lost to a ND State last week.
2 Team Parlay (-120): Nebraska ML (-288) + Ole Miss ML (-270). Risking 1.2 units to win 1 units
Nebraska wins this revenge game hands down. Last year despite dominating the game against northwestern they lost by 2. They controlled the clock and out possessed northwestern by almost double. This year, Nebraska is in its second year under head coach mike riley with 15 returning starters and is much improved. Northwestern has appeared to have taken a step backwards. Their defense looks nowhere nearly as aggressive and Clayton Thorson continues to struggle to connect with his receivers. Georgia has been squeaking by much inferior opponents with their struggling offense and even the best defenses are giving up points to this very potent ole miss offense. Their offensive line is a joke, struggling to give time to Eason even when they have max protection and are only being rushed by 3-4 guys. Georgia will not be able to keep up with Ole Miss and Ole Miss is 1-2 after facing some tough opponents. This is a rare 2 team ML parlay for me, you can also tease it and pretty much get the same value, this just worked out a little better for my book since Nebraska was at 8.5 now. Pickmonitor does not allow me to make parlay selections for their tracking purposes so I simply risked about 1.4 units per bet to win .5 unit on each bet but a parlay is a much smarter bet option for this scenario than my 2 separate bets.
Sorry Fellas this week I was real busy and did not have time to finish some of the writeups....All the plays are in bold though. .
West Virginia -7 (-106) Risking 1.06 units to win 1 units
This BYU team has definitely lost a step this year especially Taysom Hill who does not have the speed and elusivness he once had which is frustrating for him and the offense causing him to try to force more bad throws and make mistakes. The team is banged up with 8 players on the injury report marked as questionable for todays game from last week. Their schedule has been brutal playing tough close games against some tough teams like Utah and UCLA, two strong defensive squads. Now they travel across the country to a “neutral field” in Maryland which is 2000+ miles away for them and only 200 miles from West Virginia. West Virginia on the other side is well rested and coming off a bye after two strong wins. Their defense has consistently improved over the last 4 years and is under 3rd year DC Tony Gibson. New OC, Joe Wickline has a history of being an offensive line coach/running game coordinator. His teams and programs have been very productive running the ball and aside from his last 2 year stint at Texas, he had been very successful. (Can anyone do anything with Tyrone Stoops? ) West Virginia wins this one easily.
UCLA +3 (-106) Risking 1.06 units to win 1 units
This is one of my rare picks based on trends and market analysis. Things do not add up for this line. Stanford has won this game by 14+ points for the last 3 years. Stanford is 2-0 ATS and UCLA is 0-3 ATS. The line has opened at 3 and not budged. Something is off here and the line is screaming for you to take Stanford. ESPN pundits like Colin Cowherd have called it the line of the year. I have not watched a single down of Stanford football this year but I know they beat two over-rated teams by a marginal score. I have watched a lot of UCLA games and their defense is tough and able to cause a lot of disruption at the line of scrimmage. Kansas State was able to rack up 8 TFLs against this Stanford team and I have a feeling UCLA defense will hold this bland conservative play calling offense who relies on McCaffrey to few points. The Rosen One puts together enough points for the win.
Oklahoma State/Baylor Under 73.5 (-107) Risking 1.07 units to win 1 units
Oregon State +13.5 (-112) Risking 1.12 units to win 1 units
Michigan State -3.5 (-104) Risking 1.04 unit to win 1 units
Week 4 Card:
UConn -4 (-106)
Florida +6.5 (-106)
Auburn +3.5 (-111)
Iowa -12.5 (-106)
2 Team ML Parlay (-120): Nebraska ML + Ole Miss ML
Week 4 Additions:
West Virginia -7 (-106)
UCLA +3 (-106)
Oklahoma State/Baylor Under 73.5 (-107)
Oregon State +13.5 (-112)
Michigan State -3.5 (-104)
NFL Week 3:
Denver Broncos +3.5 -105 Risked 1.05 units to win 1
Buffalo Bills +4 -100 Risked 1 unit to win 1
Jacksonville Jaguars +2.5 +102 Risked 1 unit to win 1.02
Green Bay Packers ML -250 Risked 1.25 units to win 0.5
New York Jets +3 -100 Risked 1 unit to win 1
Penn State -3 (-106) Risking 1.06 units to win 1 units
This Minnesota defense is depleted and banged up. 3 DB’s and a DL got suspended right before last game and are “out indefinitely” but reports are that they are being investigated for sexual assault. They also lost two other defensive players to injury last week who are out for the season. They have been squeaking by a soft schedule to be 3-0. Meanwhile Penn State has played 3 tough opponents and despite being dominated by Michigan last week, I think they bounce back well this week. Their biggest struggles have been against the rush and containing the edge, which both Pitt and Michigan exploited. But expect James Franklin to stack the box against this Minnesota team (who isn’t very fast either) and force this Minnesota team that has struggled throwing the ball to beat them through the air. Against FBS opponents, Leidner has yet to throw a TD, and has 1 INT. He is passing for 6.5 yards per pass (Rk#89) despite the weak schedule. I like this game regardless despite if the suspension get reinstated and want to lock it in now before it can possibly move to -4.
UNC +11 (-106) Risking 1.06 units to win 1 units
The amount of playmakers on this UNC football team is remarkable. Logan, Hood, and Switzer are all clutch offensive players that can really do some damage once they have the ball. Trubinsky has been effective at distributing the ball to them and handling pressure. He has not thrown an INT all season. Last week Pitt dialed up the pressure like they always do and UNC was still able to come back from 13 points in the 4th qtr for the win. FSU defense has been atrocious, granted its been against some tough competition but its clear they are not the same defense as last year after losing 6 starters from last year including Derwin James due to injury. They will also be thin on the d-line with 4 players banged up and listed as “?” on the injury report. FSU’s offensive line has been suspect giving up 4 sacks per game in their 3 FBS opponents. Francois has not impressed me in the few games I watched of him. He behaves like a true rookie trying to fit balls into tight coverage and will most likely have an INT or two in this game. The “great” comeback where fsu beat ole miss in week one can largely be attributed to 4 turnovers in the 2nd half. This UNC team has proven to take care of the ball under head coach Larry Fedora maintaining a + in the turnover margin every year since he joined the program in ’12. (and despite 25 INTs from a Marquis Williams over the years). This is just too many points and worst case scenario I think we see a backdoor cover as UNC offense was clutch last week (mostly relying on switzer) going 4 for 4 on 4th downs last week in their comeback.
Wisconsin +10.5 (-106) Risking 1.06 units to win 1 units
Wisconsin new QB Alex Hornibrook looks like the real deal. I was very impressed what I saw from him against a very capable Michigan state defense. Michigan exploited a very weak run stopping team last week against Penn State, opening up their passing game which will not be the case this week. Michigan has been padding stats and racking up points against a weak schedule. This Wisconsin defense has consistently been solid over the years and are continuing the trend only allowing 11.8 ppg. They constantly disrupted Michigan State last week racking up 4 sacks and 7 QB hurries. Also, Michigan’s best starting CB; Jeremy Clark tore his ACL last week against Penn State. Think this is a close game and I will gladly take the 10.5 points.
UF/Vanderbilt Under 41 (-107) Risking 1.07 units to win 1 units
We have two strong defenses against two weak offenses that are struggling and will look to milk the clock and move slowly and methodically down the field. Neither of these teams run much of an up tempo offense and enjoying possessing the ball. Not much else to say about this one I have already talked about these two teams. As long as we don’t get a bunch of turnovers in redzone or defensive TD’s this game should stay well under.
Clemson +1.5 (-106) Risking 1.06 units to win 1 units
Not buying into all the Louisville hype this season or the bs line movement. Who have they been tested by? An over-rated FSU team? Look at Lamar Jacksons stats from 2015. His numbers are just as inflated and eye popping against weak competition but look at any respectable defense he played, Boston College, Clemson, Pitt, FSU (people don’t realize FSU defense is depleted compared to last year which was their greatest strength last year) and he was completely shutdown. They destroyed FSU with misdirection and the zone-read, taking advantage of undisciplined defenders that were overpursing and not maintaining their gaps. This won’t be the case with a Venable defense. I really didn’t think Venables could put out powerhouse defense after powerhouse defense after losing so many players prior to the season but he has proved me wrong thus far. They are holding FBS opponents to 2.9 yards per carry (Rk#14), 5.2 yards per pass (Rk#7), ranked 2nd in team efficiency pass defense, and 10th in TFL per game at 9.5 and have intercepted 6.9 % of opponents passes (Rk#4). DeShaun Watson is a seasoned college veteran at this point who can handle the big game pressure. He is a career 66% completion percentage (10%pts higher than Lamar), a 3.2/1 TD: INT ratio, (Lamar only 2.2/1 TD: INT, with an overinflated 13:3 this season in garbage games). The last two years when these two teams matched up Clemson have won and dominated but did not cover the large spreads either year. I remember last year I had Clemson and they were dominating the trenches racking up 7 TFL and 4 passes broken up, holding Louisville for .7 yards per carry. Granted this was right before Lamar Jackson took over QB’ing but I expect Venables to schematically make the proper adjustments and contain Jackson. Clemson pulls out the W in the end with their experience on offense.
UCF +3 (+102) Risking 2 units to win 2.04 units
The Golden Knights, it’s been a while since I have mustered up the courage to bet on this team after last year’s 0-12 season and 2-9 ATS. But they are quietly going 3-1 ATS this season. (Remember it’s always good to follow a team after an abysmal ATS season like that). ECU’s defense this season has been atrocious, giving up 6.9 yards per play (Rk#121), 9.3 yards per pass (Rk#116), and 4.9 yards per run (Rk#93). They have yet to generate an INT and average 0.3 takeaways per game (Rk #123). UCF defense has been solid, giving up 3.6 yards per rush (Rk#35), 6.4 yards per pass (Rk#31), and 4.5 yards per play (Rk#17). They quietly held Michigan to 2.9 yards per carry and 119 total rushing yards, meanwhile rushing for 275 yards of their own for 5.98 yards per carry against a tough Michigan defense. The argument can even be made that UCF has these numbers against a tougher schedule than ECU. New Dual threat QB, McKenzie Milton has taken over the starting role the last two games and has proven capable. To this point in the season, UCF’s biggest offensive weakness has been there offensive line, allowing 10.23 sack% (Rk#112), but it should not be exploited by ECU’s weak pass rush who are only averaging 1.19 sack % (Rk#122). UCF defensive line has been able to generate a strong pass rush with a 12% sack (Rk#7). These numbers are very lopsided and are indicative of a market that’s not willing to bet on this UCF team, giving us tremendous value and making this the top-rated pick of the week. Top-Rated picks are 2-0 on the season.
Indiana/Mich State over 52 (-107) Risking 1.07 units to win 1 units These two teams and coaches are very familiar with each other. Kevin Wilson and D’Antonio have faced each other head to head in each of the last 5 years. Every game has gone over the total. Both teams are struggling to protect the ball and have been averaging over 2 giveaways per game, lets hope these turnovers manifest to points. Michigan State defense will probably be missing two key defensive starting linebackers that should allow this Indiana offense to score. Indiana offense are currently producing well averaging 9.8 yards per pass (Rk#7), and 6.5 yards per play (Rk#21). They should continue to move the ball through the air against this MSU defense that has given up 8.6 yards per pass (Rk#104). Indiana defense has looked improved this season but against very weak competition thus far. Expect the MSU offense to pick back up and look more like they did against Notre Dame despite only putting up 6 points last week.
Western Michigan/Central Michigan Under 58 (+107) Risking 1 units to win 1.07 units
I have not watched a down of these two Michigan teams I like this under for unusual reasons. Both offenses have been scoring at will against weak opponents, each averaging 39 and 43 points per game. Last year the final between these two teams was 41-39. Yet the line opened at 55? Odds makers could very well set this number at 65 and the market would accept it (probably more on over than under) but they are setting it low because they know the right side and want to entice over action. I’m usually a believer in odds makers seeking 50/50 action but I feel like each week there are a few games that beg to differ. Last week was Stanford and I strongly believe odds makers took a beating on that one. They enticed Stanford action and gladly took it all day expecting UCLA to win this game easily. Another piece of evidence to back this theory is a key clear targeting call by UCLA starting safety who was laying people out all game. In NCAAF you almost ALWAYS see the ejection even when it is not really targeting. This one was clear as day, and guy got knocked the hell out with an obvious shot to the facemask. It was reviewed and he was not ejected for targeting. An ejection that would have clearly hurt UCLAs odds of winning greatly. This only substantiates my belief that odds makers are willing to take some risks on some games each week and seek 75/25 market shares instead of the typical 50/50 which always results in their profiting (small but profit is profit). I think this week is one of them as this line screams over. Need more reason to like the under? Both these teams are clock controlling possessive-type football teams. Ranking amongst the lowest in pace of play statistics last year. This year they are ranked 14th and 15th in TOP NET % and have not had a ton of plays. I’ve decided to call these picks, The Tinfoil Hat Specials, since they are not using my typical handicapping methods. Tail at your own risk, the tinfoil hat specials are officially 0-1 on the season (last week was 1st one UCLA before I named the pick), but that was a friggen bad beat.
Week 5 picks:
(2x)UCF +3 (+102)
Wisconsin +10.5 (-106)
UF/Vanderbilt Under 41 (-107)
UNC +11 (-106)
Penn State -3 (-106)
Clemson +1.5 (-106)
Indiana/Mich State over 52 (-107)
Western Mich/Central Mich. Under 58 (+107)
Iowa -2 (-106) Risking 1.06 units to win 1 units
Iowa is a run first team that sets up their whole offense. In their two losses this season, they have been unable to break 2 yards per carry. Meanwhile in their 3 wins, they have generated over 5 yards per carry. Minnesota has held 4 weak rushing opponents to only 3.4 yards per rush this season, but last week (with many injuries) they gave up 4.86 yards per carry to Penn State team that had only been rushing for 3.02 yards per rush to that point in the season. Last year Iowa had no problem running at will against Minnesota, rushing for 272 yards and 5.67 yards per carry in their 40-35 win. This already banged up (and suspended) Minnesota defense that I talked about last week has 5 new defenders from last game listed on injury report and are questionable for Saturdays start vs. Iowa. I’ve already talked a lot about these two teams so not much more needs to be said. If you haven’t noticed, the BIG 10 is a rising conference and much improved from a few years ago. Over the last two years, BIG 10 teams are 8-4 over PAC 12 teams. Take Iowa to win, lock it in early while you can at a low number because it may go up.
Maryland +1 (-110) Risking 1.1 units to win 1 units
This Maryland team has yet to face much competition this year, thus allowing them to fly under the radar. They are averaging 6.49 yards per carry, and have 1200 rushing yards in 4 games. Before laughing at their competition realize UCF defense is a top 10 defense (Rk#8th in yards per play allowed) and still gave up 246 yards on the ground and 4.92 yards per carry against Maryland. This Penn State defense is incredibly banged up. Five of their starting eleven defenders coming into the season are all injured, most out for the season, including all three starting linebackers. Their depth is very thin and they have already been getting gashed all season on the ground giving up 4.9 yards per carry (Rk#91). Maryland 1st year Head Coach DJ Durkin has started off his head coaching career 5-0. Although young and inexperienced as a head coach, the nation’s top coaches have always found a spot for him in the past on their staffs as an assitant, including Urban Meyer, Tyrone Willingham, and Jim Harbaugh have all done multiple stints with him for multiple universities including, Bowling Green, Notre Dame, Stanford, Florida and last year he was the defensive coordinator for Michigan before getting this head coaching job. Walt Bell is his young dynamic offensive coordinator that has put in place this up-tempo offense that was very successful at Arkansas State over the last few years. Their offense has plenty of weapons and should have no problem outscoring Penn State in this shootout. Their defense though has really made strides from last year (again though schedule is weak) but have given up 3.4 yards per rush (Rk#24), 5.3 yards per pass (Rk#5), and 9.23% sack% (Rk#23). They have given up the second fewest points per play at .179. This should be an easy win.
Texas +10.5 (-109) Risking 1.09 units to win 1 units
This is just too many points despite a dwindling Texas team. Texas losses so far this season to Cal and Oklahoma State were largely due to the inability to cover the deep ball and giving up big plays through the air. Something these two teams are much more effective at then Oklahoma. Over the last two years, when Texas and Charlie Strong have faced Stoops and Oklahoma, they have overwhelmingly dominated the trenches and running game. Texas has run for 461 yards averaging 4.7 yards per carry, and Oklahoma has only racked up 170 total rushing yards averaging 2.5 yards per carry. Oklahoma’s offensive line has had plenty of struggles this season protecting Baker Mayfield allowing 9.03% sack% (Rk#104), something that plays into Texas’s defensive strength which has racked up a 10.53% sack% (Rk#11). Baker Mayfield should struggle connecting with the deep ball if he has no time to throw it. Strong at this point is playing for his job and expect him to throw at all the stops with freshman QB, Sam Buechele. To this point he has been conservatively using him and not throwing the ball over the middle. Oklahoma’s defense is also very banged up, with a number of injuries to lineman, line backers and defensive backs. Expect this to be a close hard fought rivalry game at a neutral field.
Maryland TT Over 28(-110) Risking .55 units to win .5 units
Indiana +28 (-110) Risking 1.1 units to win 1 units
This is just too many points for an improved Indiana team. There defense has made huge strides under new DC, Tom Allen, who led a very successful USF defense last year. For the last 5 years Indiana has been 19+ pt underdogs and has covered every year with ease. In the last 5 years with the same coaching matchups, Kevin Wilson and Kevin Johns have managed to put up 27 pts per game against these Ohio State defenses. They are very aware of each other tricks and schemes and this should be a 2-3 TD game keeping us well within our spread. We are also getting value because Ohio State is 4-0 ATS.
Duke -6.5 (-106) Risking 1.06 units to win 1 units
There’s no one more familiar with the triple option attack then Jim Knowles and this Duke team. Every year, for the last several years, they have been facing it two times a season. Last year they seemed to figure out the schematic changes to shut it down, holding both Army and GTECH to a combined 286 rushing yards on 109 carries, holding them to 2.6 yards per carry. Thru the air, they’ve been even better (which has been Dukes weakness this season) allowing only 8 completions through 28 passes. Duke’s defensive strength has been their front 7 which has allowed 3.06 yards per carry (Rk#19). To this point in the season we have heard a lot of talk about the improvement of this Army team. But further inspection of their schedule would show they have played extremely weak opponents and just loss to a very crappy Buffalo team. According to Team Rankings, they have had the #105 ranked SOS. Their opponents combined record is 5-15 with their best victory coming against Temple this year that is 3-2 but has had a soft schedule as well to this point in the season. I think Army will just be outmatched in the front 7 and Dukes defense will be prepared giving them a solid edge and a one unit pick. The rain should also give us an edge.
Miami ML (-128) Risking 1.28 units to win 1 units
Miami HOMER Alert. Still like this pick though as once again we have much superior defense and superior EXPIERENCED QB on one side at home. FSU has been more hyped this season then hurricane Matthew. I keep hearing about Dalvin Cook, finally getting his legs back the last two games and starting to tear teams up and run all over them. Can we take a moment and assess the two defensive opponents he rushed with ease against? UNC who has given up 5.2 yards per rush (Rk#107) and USF who has given up 5.0 yards per rush (Rk#100). This Miami front is by far superior to these opponents who have given up 3.2 yards per rush (Rk#18). But more so than that, the Miami’s passing defense has been incredibly superior to seasons past thanks to Richt and Manny Diaz. They have allowed 4.8 yards per pass (Rk#2) and allowing only 50% opponent completion percentage (Rk#11). They are also the number 1 team at sacking QB with a 15.22% sack % which plays right into FSU's weakness who is allowing 9.29% sacks allowed (Rk#108). This FSU team is also one of the highest penalized teams in the country giving up 10 penalties a game and almost 100 penalty yards a game. FSU got destroyed by Louisville and the zone-read option. Something UM is more than capable of doing with seasoned veteran Brad Kaaya. To this point in the season, Miami has been coasting through victories against much inferior competition thus allowing them to reserve much of their playbook for their tougher opponents, and this huge rivalry game. Last time FSU came to Miami (I was there), Miami should have won but fell apart in the 4th qtr and FSU had an extreme amount of lucky breaks to allow them to come back and win. This time, Miami has the superior talent and improved coaching and are extremely motivated to beat the shit out of this FSU team after years past. I will be at this game, so I must put 1 unit on the home team. Another reason to like Miami in this spot is ALL the ESPN pundits I have seen are picking FSU, including Steele, Coughlin, and Fallica; very rarely do you see this phenomena and its very beneficial one to fade.
Kentucky -3 (-115) Risking 1.15 units to win 1 units
These are two teams heading in the opposite directions. Kentucky has made vast improvements from the beginning of the season. It all starts at the QB position with new mobile QB Stephen Johnson. He is now entering his 4th game starting and should have a big game despite a rough outing last week against Alabama. Alabama brought a ton of pressure to Johnson with 6 QB hurries and 4 sacks but Johnson managed well only giving up one turnover on a sack fumble. This Vanderbilt defense is not what it was and is unable to get pressure this season with a 2.69% sack% (Rk #115). Vandy defense is also giving up a lot of yards on the ground, giving up 4.8 yards per rush (Rk #85). Their offense has been abysmal as ever and that’s because it rests in the hands of Kyle Shurmur, a sophomore with a career 47% completion %. He barely averages over 5 yards per completion. He is even banged up and his backup is even worse, who is an older junior, with a worse completion %. Kentucky Defense has also made improvements shutting down Alabama offense in the first half last week until a fumble recovery for a TD really started to turn the tide. Their defense should be fine against this Vanderbilt offense that sports the 124th ranked passing efficiency offense. This is an in conference rivalry game with a revenge factor from last year. Last year it was a close game with Kentucky outgaining Vanderbilt 352-301 yards, and losing by 4 because of a last minute goal line stand by Vanderbilt.
UCLA -9 (-106) Risking 1.06 units to win 1 units
Here we have another matchup that I love because we have a very strong defense against a very crappy defense. Arizona States pass defense is horrible, ranking 125th in defensive passing efficiency, giving up 9.2 yards per attempt (Rk#121). Compare that to a UCLA team defense that is ranked #9 against passing efficiency and ranked 5th in allowing only 5.22 yards per pass attempt. These numbers even come with UCLA having a much tougher schedule than Arizona State to date. We also have some key injuries to starting QB Manny Wilkins and starting WLB Christian Sam who are both doubtful for this game. This is a revenge game for UCLA who were upset big last year at home. Now they go to Arizona to return the favor.
NFL Week 5:
Jets +10 (-123) Risking 1.23 units to win 1 units
Bills ML (-128) Risking 1.28 units to win 1 units
Miami ML (-133) Risking 1.33 units to win 1 units
Colts ML (-190) Risking 1.9 units to win 1 units
2 Team 6 pt Teaser. Packers -1 and Falcons +10 (-120) Risking 1.2 units to win 1 units
Been working just been waiting on some line movements....more to be locked in tmrw in the AM
Week 7: Pittsburgh -3 (-108) Risking 2.16 units to win 2 units
Narduzzi’s defensive game plan is to shut down the run first, force opposing teams into obvious passing downs, and then dialing up the pressure in obvious passing downs blitzing every way possible. To this point in the season, it has been ineffective against the likes of some potent playmaking offenses like UNC, Penn State, and Oklahoma State. Although this Virginia passing attack has been productive the last two weeks, it’s come against some weak competition and showed signs of struggling against Uconn and Oregon. Why? Because of pressure. Oregon was able to dial up 6 sacks against UVA. Oregon was also able to shred this Virginia team on the ground with their superior speed hitting the edge and constant barrage of misdirecting rush attacks. Something this Pittsburgh offense specializes in, rushing for 5.6 yards per carry on the season (Rk#15). Pittsburgh is lacking big numbers in the passing department but that’s because they have not had to throw on teams, throwing the ball on 30.73% of plays (Rk#122). When they have thrown on teams, they have been effective, completing 65.42% (Rk#13), averaging 8.8 yards per pass (Rk#18), throwing only 1.87% INTs (Rk#36) and allowing 2.73 sack% (Rk#15). They have a great FG kicker who is hitting 87.5% of all FGs (Rk#30), against a UVA kicker who is struggling just to hit 50% of his (Rk#110). This Virginia team is also one of the most highly penalized teams in the nations. Why is this number so low and why are we getting so much value in this game? Simply because Pitt was a heavily bet market team coming into the season and are 1-5 ATS to this point, and UVA is the opposite yet have gone 3-1-1 ATS. These stars do not align that often and therefore I am making it an official TOP RATED PICK of the week. Given the fact that the line opened at 5, I do not foresee it getting any better than 3, so I’m going to go ahead and lock it in now for 2 units, so we don’t get screwed and hit 4. Worst case scenario we push but I think Pitt wins this easily and will be a similar outcome to Oregon/UVA game earlier in the season.
Rutgers +6 (-106) Risking 1.06 units to win 1 units
Has anyone played a harder schedule this season then Rutgers? The answer is no. Their offensive production numbers are freaking awful but have played the likes of Washington, Iowa, Ohio State, and Michigan. They’ve been severely outmatched and have been handed a couple of immense beat downs being dominated in every statistical category against OSU and UM giving up 136 points and scoring 0. Lucky for them this Illinois team is nothing of the likes of these dominant teams they have played. Illinois has given up 5.1 yards per carry (Rk#101), 8.8 yards per pass (Rk#115), a 68.37 opp. completion % (Rk#125), allowing opponents to score on 90.48% (Rk#97) of their red zone scoring %, and allowing a 49.06% 3rd down conv. % rate (Rk#111) . This is coming from a team whose competition has been UNC, W. Michigan, Nebraska and Purdue, a huge step down from Rutgers competition thus far. Rutgers is an experienced team with 15 returning starters, although they performed poorly last season going 4-8, again it was against some tough competition. I also give the coaching edge to Rutgers as I’d much rather have some young innovative college minds like Chris Ash and Drew Mehringer, than an old NFL career 50% winning % coach Lovie Smith. Rutgers can very easily win this game and I expect them to cover no problem.
Arkansas +7.5 (-112) Risking 1.12 units to win 1 units
The last 3 years when Beliema has faced Hugh Freeze, Beliema is 3-0 ATS. They have always been underdogs and have won 2 out of 3 games including the last two. Neither defense is particularly stout, with Arkansas ranked 47th and slightly better than Ole Miss at 55. Austin Allen is one of my favorite young QBs, although he doesn’t sport much mobility like the growing trend of QB’s, he has pinpoint accuracy. I’ve seen this kid make some throws to some spots under pressure you wouldn’t believe. Alabama created havoc in the backfield and was constantly pressuring Allen leading to a poor performance. That will not be the case in this game with Ole Miss ranked 85th overall in sack % at 5.11% and ranked 122nd in standard downs opposed to passing downs. Their LBs are not known to blitz much or bring as much pressure like Alabama’s. Ole Miss may have some of the most dynamic WRs and QB in the conference, but Arkansas strengths is their CB’s and their secondary. I am not saying they shut down this Ole Miss team by any means, but we should get some broken up passes and maybe even an INT. Arkansas also plays old school possession type clock milking football ranking #2 in TOP % at 61.41%. Which is a direct contrast to Ole Miss’s quick scoring offense who Rank 123rd in TOP % at 40.99%. This should play into Arkansas’s favor and even if Ole Miss jumps out early, expect Arkansas offense to wear down this Ole Miss defense and make it a close one score game by the finish. Another situational angle that plays in our favor that I have touched upon in past write-ups is the fact that ole miss is coming off a bye and is on the road. Unlike the NFL and what most people believe, college teams more often than not perform poorly after a BYE week, especially on the road, for whatever reason. Think we cover and might even pull off the upset.
West Virginia -1.5 (-102) Risking 1.02 units to win 1 units
Kliff Kingsbury may be 3-0 ATS against Dan Holgerson but Dan has won 2 of the last 3. These coaches seem to be getting familiar with each other and the mountaineers seem to be figuring out this offense as last year they held Texas Tech to their lowest yardage total of the season, allowing only 378 total yards. Meanwhile they rushed for 300 yards of their own and averaged 5.54 yards per play. We all know how bad this Texas tech defense is, and its downright awful, ranking in the bottom 20 of almost every statistical category. West Virginia defense is at least respectable and surprisingly enough has been very strong against the pass thus far this year only allowing 5.8 yards per pass (Rk#13). Their defensive weakness has been against the run allowing 4.5 yards per rush (Rk#76) but this should not be exploited by a very weak Texas Tech rushing attack who are averaging 3.5 yards per carry. (Rk#107). Texas tech is also one of the most penalized teams in the nation giving up 10.2 penalties per game (Rk#127). Meanwhile this West Virginia team is not even averaging half that with 4.7 penalties per game (Rk#19). We are going to side here with the stronger defense who should be able to generate a stop or two for us, something I doubt Texas Tech defense will be able to do. This may come down to a one possession game but I am confident West Virginia should be able to score at will. We also have a kicking advantage as west Virginia is converting on 83.33% and texas tech is only converting on 66.67%.
Vanderbilt +14 (-106) Risking 1.06 units to win 1 units
This is just too many points here for a very weak Georgia team. We have a superior defense (who hasn’t been playing up to par) getting 14 points against a much weaker defense. Vanderbilt has been great against the pass, allowing 6.3 yards per pass (Rk#30), a 116.97 defensive efficiency rating (Rk#41) and have broken up 32 passes in 6 games. They have been unable to get much pressure thus far this season but should look to have a turnaround against this atrocious UGA offensive line that has an 8.72 sack% (Rk#102) despite often being in max protection. Vanderbilt run game has begun to improve rushing for 140+ yards in the last two games. Despite my criticisms of Kyle Shurmur, he won’t be asked to do a whole lot against a UGA defense that is terrible against the pass, allowing 8.1 yards per pass (Rk#100), allowing 64.71 opponents completion % (Rk#114), and a 5.03 sack % (Rk#86). Kirby Smart and Jim Chaney are some reputable winning coaches, but have often shown their systems need time to develop.
Ohio State Vs Wisconsin Under 44.5 (-107) Risking 1.07 units to win 1 units
This game features two of the best defenses in the BIG 10, the conference with arguably the best defenses of any other conference. Ohio State has yet to be tested defensively; the teams they have played against thus far have allowed 35.9 points per game, with their toughest defense being Indiana. Wisconsin defense is the real deal like I have spoken about in the past. They are home which will give them an advantage, and this ohio state team has been heavily penalized this season. Both teams like to possess the football Ohio State (Rk#5) and Wisconsin (Rk#11) in TOP %. We also have thunderstorms in the forecast but I don’t think it matters. I see this being a 21-10 type game with the safest bet being the under.
Temple Team Total Under 24.5 (-110) Risking 1.1 units to win 1 units
I already talked about how good and underrated this UCF defense is. Temple runs one of the slowest paced offenses in the league averaging 68.8 plays per game. UCF runs a bit of an up-tempo offense but they run 64% of the time. I would just bet the game total under, but with McKenzie Milton coming back I am hesitant to. The last 3 years these two teams have played each other the total has gone over, but that changes this season. Low scoring affair but we’ll still with the Temple TT Under as they have only scored a lot of points thus far on crappy opponents. They have not faced a defense of this caliber and I expect them to struggle. We also have a great likelihood of thunderstorms, as it rains in Florida almost every afternoon.
NFL Week 6
San Francisco 49ers +7.5 (-105) Risked 1.05 units to win 1
Philadelphia Eagles -3 (-103) Risked 1.03 units to win 1
Carolina Panthers -3 (+102) Risked 1 unit to win 1.02
Kansas City Chiefs -1.5 -(107) Risked 2.14 units to win 2
wish I grew some balls and took some of my underdogs to win on ML
UCF giving up 70 yards in 30 seconds and Temple had no timeouts determined to have a huge week soon
Week 7 Results:
(2X) Pittsburgh -3 (-108) W
Rutgers +6 (-106) L
Arkansas +7.5 (-112)W
West Virginia -1.5 (-102) W
Vanderbilt +14 (-106) W
Ohio State Vs Wisconsin Under 44.5 (-107) L
Temple Team Total Under 24.5 (-110) L
Northwestern +6.5 (-106) W
Week 7 Results: 5-3 +2.77 units
NCAAF Total: +6.81 units
Working on my mid-season betting review this week...stay tuned.
Total Results: 30-27 (53%) +6.86 units
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ATS: 27-17
ML: 0-3
Game Totals: 2-5
Team Totals: 0 -2
Parlays: 1-0
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Total Bets: 59 *2 pushes
Total Units Risked: 64.97
Total Units Won: 34.05
Total Units Lost: 27.19
Average Bet Size: 1.1
Max Bet: 2.32
Average Units Risked per week: 9.28
Average Units Profit per week: 0.98
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2+ units risked: (TOP RATED PICKS): 4-0
1-1.9 units risked: 26-24
<1 units risked: 0-3
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Week 1 Card:
Oregon State +13 (-110) - Win + 1 unit
.25xOregon State ML (+400) - Loss - .25 units
SouthCar/Vandy Under 42.5 (-110) - Win + 1 units
Northwestern -5 (-108) - LOSS - 1.08
UCLA/Tex AM Under 54.5 (-117) - LOSS - 1.17
LSU -10.5 (-106) - LOSS -1.06
USC +12 (-106) - LOSS -1.06
Auburn +8.5 (-112) - WIN + 1
Missouri +9.5 (-103) - LOSS - 1.03
8.85 +3 -5.65
Week 1 Results: 3-6 -2.65 units
Week 2 Full Card:
(2x) BYU +3.5 (-116) W
Boston College -16.5 (-112) W
Penn State vs Pitt Under 48 (-117) L
Wake Forest +5 (-102) W
Texas Tech +2 (-106) L
6.69 +4 -2.23
Week 2 Results: 3-2 +1.77 units
NCAAF Total: 6-8 -0.88 units
Week 3 Full Card:
(2x) Texas A &M +3.5 (-106) W
Miami -3.5 (+101) W
Ohio State PK (-112) W
Pittsburgh +6 (-106) L
(.5x) Pittsburgh ML (+200) L
Ohio +27 (-112) W
Temple +8.5 (-107) W
Oregon +3 (-112) P
Texas -7 (+100) L
10.11 +6.01 -2.56
Week 3 Results: 5-3 +3.45 units
NCAAF YTD: 11-11 +2.57 units
Week 4 Card:
UConn -4 (-106) L
Florida +6.5 (-106) L
Auburn +3.5 (-111) W
Iowa -12.5 (-106) L
2 Team ML Parlay (-120): Nebraska ML + Ole Miss ML W
West Virginia -7 (-106) L
UCLA +3 (-106) L
Oklahoma State/Baylor Under 73.5 (-107) W
Oregon State +13.5 (-112) L
Michigan State -3.5 (-104) L
Arizona State -4 (+100) W
11.84 +4 -7.46
NCAAF Week 4: 4-7 -3.46 units
NCAAF Total: 15-18 -.89 units
Week 5 picks:
(2x)UCF +3 (+102) W
Wisconsin +10.5 (-106 ) W
UF/Vanderbilt Under 41 (-107) W
UNC +11 (-106) W
Penn State -3 (-106) P
Clemson +1.5 (-106) W
Indiana/Mich State over 52 (-107) L
Western Mich/Central Mich. Under 58 (+107) L
8.38 +6.04 -2.07
Week 5 Results: 5-2 +3.97 units
NCAAF Total: 20-20 +3.08 units
Week 6 Card:
Texas +10.5 (-109) W
Iowa -2 (-106) W
Maryland +1 (-110) L
(.5x) Maryland TT Over 28(-110) L
Indiana +28 (-110)W
Duke -6.5 (-106)W
Miami ML (-128) L
Kentucky -3 (-115) W
UCLA -9 (-106) L
9.45 +5 -3.99
Week 6 results: 5-4 +1.01 units
NCAAF Total: 25-24 +4.09 units
Week 7 Results:
(2X) Pittsburgh -3 (-108) W
Rutgers +6 (-106) L
Arkansas +7.5 (-112)W
West Virginia -1.5 (-102) W
Vanderbilt +14 (-106) W
Ohio State Vs Wisconsin Under 44.5 (-107) L
Temple Team Total Under 24.5 (-110) L
Northwestern +6.5 (-106) W
9.65 +6 -3.23
Week 7 Results: 5-3 +2.77 units
NCAAF Total: 30-27 +6.86 units
Week 8:
Oregon +3 (-103) Risking 1.03 units to win 1 units
Finally, a Friday night game to bet on. These defenses are both awful but Oregon’s strengths play more into Cal’s weaknesses on both sides of the ball. Oregon is finally healthy and has an arsenal of offensive playmakers (who are ranked 8th in yards per rush with 6 ypr) that should score at will against Cal defense that has given up 5.9 yards per rush (Rk#124). Now Oregon rush defense has been just as bad, but they’ve played better teams. Oregon hasn’t been awful this season on giving up big passing plays through the air only allowing 13 passes of 25+ yards or more on the season, which is Cal’s bread and butter. Oregon against the pass is allowing 7.7 yards per pass (Rk#76) but this number has been super inflated and risen over the last 3 weeks thanks to playing Colorado, Washington state and Washington (three teams that are much more effective at the pass than Cal) .This Cal team under Sonny Dykes has really struggled to play with their PAC 12 teams as they are 8-22 SU and 11-19 ATS since 2013 when Dykes became the head coach. Both teams are also coming off a bye, which Helfrichs Ducks have proven to be much stronger at coming off of as they are 4-3 after a bye since Helfrich took over, and Dykes is 1-4. Look for Oregon to win and cover their first spread in 8 games dating back to last year. These long ATS streaks rarely hold this long and if by chance we lose this bet, WE WILL be chasing against an awful Arizona state team I have talked about. Helfrich has also dominated Dykes in the last 3 years since both coaches took over their positions with Helfrich, 3-0 SU and ATS every year. Surely the Oregon ATS losing streak is dictating this line but we expect it to end Friday.
Texas AM +17 (-110) Risking 1.1 units to win 1 units
This is just too many points for a talented team like Texas A&M. Once again the Alabama name is overvaluing the line. Despite being dominant and glorified by the media for the last 4 years, Alabama is still a 50% ATS team over that period. This year they are 5-2 ATS so far and look for the trend of a 50% season to continue as they will be overvalued often from here on out. Alabama hasn’t really played any great complete teams. Ole Miss is a good team but is one dimensional and even then were in it till the end. Arkansas had a major flaw in the team’s offensive line and Alabama exploited it, constantly putting pressure on Allen and sacking him 7 times. Something they will not be able to exploit against an experienced Knight (who is familiar with Alabama and has beaten them) and his offensive line is the 5th best in the nation in sack% only allowing 2.2% sacks in drop backs. Alabama has also always struggled with mobile QB’s (no I do not consider Dobbs a mobile QB since he can’t throw accurately 20 yards down the field) Games are often decided by the turnover margin and this Texas A&M team is one of the best in the nation because of their constant disruption in the backfield and takeaways averaging 3.2 per game (Rk#2) in the nation. The Alabama offensive line has not seen a defensive line like this and will be unprepared for it. Sumlin is a great schemer and he will surely have a strong offensive game plan and used every bit of his bye week to prepare his team to go into Alabama.
Ole Miss +4.5 (-106) Risking 1.06 units to win 1 units
Rarely do I ever look at opening lines on Sunday evenings and make selections off of them but I decided this one was a good one as any to jump on. Surely it would move down and not get any better than this? Of course, I was wrong, and odd makers continue to mindfuck everyone with these seemingly arbitrary numbers and moved the line to 6 already. Why? I have really no clue. Granted Ole Miss’s defense has been pretty bad this season but is LSU’s offense really that good? Has this LSU team really turned it around that much and that convincingly against a terrible Missouri team and Southern Miss.? Etling was a career 55% completion % at Purdue with almost a 1:1 TD: INT ratio, and averaging less than 6 yards per attempt. LSU defense has been great against the run but against who? Against a bunch of teams that can’t run the ball, and everyone knows Ole Miss strength is their passing game. Ole Miss has also played a considerably harder schedule. I just don’t see how this is not a one possession game, worst case scenario we get a backdoor cover as ole miss can score quickly. I think Ole Miss wins this game actually but will take the 4.5 points given the suspiciousness of the line. I wouldn’t have thought twice about it if ole miss was favored by 3-4 points. If it’s a trap, so be it, I’m biting.
Rutgers +19 (-106) Risking 1.06 units to win 1 units
I know I am a freaking idiot to back Rutgers again, but I just can’t help it. Gio Rescgino came in the 2nd half of the Illinois game and showed he is a dynamic mobile QB who can definitely help lead this offense. Sure he made some mistakes but all in all Rutgers had a decent outing. Turnovers plagued them which they had 5 including a pick 6 and a fumble right after the pick 6 on the kickoff (really thought we were going to cover until those two plays sealed up the loss.) But they still outgained Illinois 380 to 320 and all things considered their defense played decent. Minnesota on the other side will most likely be again with their backup QB. Last week their box score is a little misleading as they dominated a Maryland team with their backup QB, Pigrome, who is a terrible QB (and the reason we lost the Maryland pick a few weeks back). Minnesota’s backup QB struggled to throw the ball on offense completing only 7-15 for 82 yards forcing Minnesota to become one dimensional and run the ball 48 times. They broke out one long run for 70 yards giving them a total of 229 rushing yards, but if you don’t count that long run, they were only rushing for 3.38 yards per carry that game. I do not see how Minnesota can win this game by 21+ points with backup QB and if I had some bigger balls I might even take Rutgers on the ML. But we’ll be content with 1 unit, were going to win ATS. Lock it in now, as Minn QB Leidner is doubtful and if he is officially declared out later in the week expect the line to drop tremendously like it did last week. I just don’t see Minnesota risking starting him against this Rutgers team. He is still undergoing concussion protocol and most Minnesota sources are declaring him out for the game.
Cincinnati -2.5 (-104) Risking 1.04 units to win 1 units
We can expect an offensive spark out of struggling Cincinnati team as Gunner Kiel returns to the starting role. I don’t follow Cincinnati football enough to know why he was even put into the backup role, but he is an experienced starter with 22 career starts, and above average career numbers. Cincinnati’s offensive woes have largely been attributed to the QB’s so far who have 8TD:10INT ratio thus far this season. Kiel should have no problem throwing against this abysmal ECU defense. They are the worst ranked team in FBS in adjusted sack rate at .7% and a 0.0 sack% on standard downs. They are giving up 6.7 yards per play (Rk#122). On the other side of the ball, Cincinnati defense has actually been better than usual for them, despite a struggling offense and their improvement probably has to do with the 8 returning starters. They are ranked 54th in defensive S+P ratings and are only allowing 3.8 yards per rush (Rk#34). Finley seems to be a QB that does not handle pressure well and Cincinnati is a decent team at applying pressure ranked #46 in adjusted sack rate, and ranked 44th in havoc %. ECU offense is also the worst in the league at Tackles for Loss allowed as they have allowed 10.17 TFL per game. Cincinnati wins easily.
Iowa/Wisconsin Under 42.5 (-107) Risking 1.07 units to win 1 units
Iowa’s offensive line has struggled at protecting Beathard and is ranked 107th in adjusted sack rate. Like I talked about in the game against Minnesota, their offense relies on establishing the run, and I doubt they will be able to do that against this stout Wisconsin front who is ranked 5th in defensive S&P ratings and ranked 20th in defensive havoc rating % at 19.2%. Iowa’s defense is also strong like I have talked about frequently, even though last week they gave up 35 to Purdue, they put in a lot of backups in the 4th qtr and gave up 21 pts developing some young players. Wisconsin is coming off some extremely hard fought losses and will be looking to get this game behind them. Both defenses are very good on 3rd down and exceptionally good in the redzone both only allowing opponents to score on 66.67% of redzone opportunities tying them for 6th ranked in the nation. Both teams will milk the clock as much as possible and try to establish the run, moving at a slow methodical pace.
Missouri -7 (-117) Risking 1.17 units to win 1 units
This Missouri offense is still working out the kinks under new offensive coordinator Josh Heupel. They are effective enough to put up some major points against weak teams, but still struggle against good defenses like they’ve had the last two weeks against LSU and Florida. Their struggles come up on their offensive line, which continues to struggle (but oddly enough they are one of top ranked in sack %). Their offensive style implements quick throws and a lot of them, leading to this number, but it also leads to a lot of broken up passes. Despite getting 0 sacks in the game, UF racked up 11 hurries and 2 broken up passes. Against LSU only 2 sacks, but gave up 7 broken up passes, 3 hurries, and 2 forced fumbles. MTSU defensive line has nowhere near the talent or athleticism of these two teams and I expect Missouri offense to put up some major points. MTSU has had a good season, but against some terrible competition. Their SOS is ranked one of the worst at #92, compared to Missouri who is #22. According to the S&P ratings, which accounts for SOS, has MTSU’s defense ranked as 101st against the rush and 106th vs. the pass. This should really open up the game for Missouri. To me this is just another no-brainer domination based on talent level and an over-rated weak team coasting by on a cupcake schedule. Much like Miami vs. App State early on the season, I think Missouri dominates this game even only being favored by 7.
Arkansas +10.5 (+100) Risking 1 unit to win 1 unit
Another enigma of a line, in my opinion. This one at least can be semi-understandable by the fact that Auburn is 5-1 ATS. But the games they’ve dominated have all come against some weak competition and the only tough competition they have played their offense has struggled. I keep hearing about how bad Arkansas rush defense was against Bama and Texas A&M, and how many yards they gave up and how Auburn will do the same. I do not seeing that being the case in this game because unlike Bama and A&M, Auburn does not have a threatening mobile QB to operate the zone read that gashed Arkansas. Not only did Arkansas’s defensive line step up last week with 6 hurries and 2 sacks, their secondary also performed great with 7 broken up passes. Arkansas rushing game looked potent last week and their offensive line was definitely getting some push against ole miss. Their offensive rushing stats are deceptive because of the way college football defines sacks as rushing yards/attempts. If you take away the 3 sacks for -27 yards last week, Arkansas actually ran for 4.72 yards per carry. Against Bama, if you take away the sacks, they actually ran for 4.34 yards per carry. Last year, against Auburn they ran for 4.35 yards per carry while holding Auburn to 3.12 yards per carry. They were also able to disrupt Auburns offense racking up 7 TFLs, 3 hurries, and 6 broken up passes. These are two teams that are familiar with each other and expect this one to be a close game.
Indiana/Northwestern Over 54 (-110) Risking 1.1 units to win 1 units
This Northwestern offense is finally clicking and it starts with how dynamic Justin Jackson is. Clayton Thorson’s accuracy has been tremendous the last few weeks including completing 77% of his passes against Michigan State for 8 yards per attempt last week. It’s a bit of a flip flop from last season as their defense has been struggling heavily this season. This is giving us some value on this line. They have been getting absolutely gashed through the air allowing 7.5 yards per pass (Rk#73) and allowing opponents to complete 63.93 % of passes against them (Rk#108). This plays well into an Indiana team who has been passing the ball very well, completing 59.9% of their passes (Rk#46) and racking up 8.7 yards per pass (Rk#20). I was leaning heavy on the over last night, and this morning I wake up and the totals master BiffTFinancial has this game as one of his selections, making this a no-brainer for me. Expect this to be a high scoring affair.
Texas -1 (-112) Risking 1.12 units to win 1 units
Texas has struggled defending the pass this season, but its been against some highly potent big play offenses. This Kansas state team is not one of those teams, they have only had 7 passes for 25+ yards on the season. Their QB is banged up but will probably play, their offense has only been averaging 5 yards per play (Rk#100). The biggest edge I see in this game is Texas’s pass rush, who is ranked #3 in the nation with an 11.11% sack%, which plays right into Kansas States’ weakness as they are ranked #112 in sack rate% allowed giving up 9.32% sacks. Young Shane Buechele should put up enough points to win this game. Texas last year won this game with ease 23-9, dominating the line of scrimmage and rushing for 5.17 yards per carry and only allowing 3.65 yards per carry. This year they actually have a QB who can throw.
Hey bud,have not been checking in on other peoples post. Win or loose your doing a great job with the write-up's. I know it's time consuming and done with thought ideas and angles.............................. Keep -up the good work!!.........Hope you have a profitable season!!
Thanks for the kind words fellas. They key to losses like last week rutgers was learning from it and allowing us to make a units off of it later on in the season.
Sorry had some bad picks this week. I found myself locking in a few lines early, then after getting into the numbers, I had many signs that the bet was not good or was just trying to justify bad picks with poor angles, but I use pickmonitor and you cant really go back after locking in a pick....will not make that mistake again
The obvious bad signs in the games I picked were definately some of the deciding factors. Fortunately Football Outsiders offensive/defensive line data was finally just released about a week or 2 ago after not being updated all season. The numbers showed LSU/Auburn heavily heavily favored against Ole Miss/Arksansas and was sure sign not to take them but I had it locked in anyways, things to look for in the future.....
we'll get em back next week....onto NFL might have one pick or two soon
NFL Week 7:
Eagles +3 (-113) Risking 1.13 units to win 1 units
Browns +11 (-105) Risking 1.05 units to win 1 units
Was/Det over 50 (-108) Risking 1.08 units to win 1 units
Week8 FULL CARD:
Oregon +3 (-103) PUSH
Ole Miss +4.5 (-106) L
Texas AM +17 (-110) L
Cincinnati -2.5 (-104) W
Rutgers +19 (-106) W
Iowa/Wisconsin Under 42.5 (-107) W
Missouri -7 (-117) L
Arkansas +10.5 (+100) L
Indiana/NW over 54 (-110) L
Texas -1 (-112) L
Week 8 : 3-6 -3.55 unit
NCAAF Total: 33-33 +3.31 units
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Rosen injury 
determined to have a huge week soon
