The Pac 10 was wild last year, with 7 teams going to bowl games. Unfortunately, only the two L.A. teams were able to pull out wins. This year promises more of the same. Here is an early look:
Everyone is in love with OREGON. They ended USC's domination of the Pac 10 last year, and return 10 out of 11 starters on offense, including QB Masoli and RB James. The defense loses 4 starters, and was a siv at times last season. The schedule will test them, with games at Tenessee, USC, Cal, and Oregon State. Oregon is going to have to throw the ball on offense, and tighten up their defense to repeat. WAGERING NOTES: Oregon is 6-0 ATS vs Washington and 5-0 ATS vs Arizona State. Pre-season polls have this team ranked too high. They did lose 3 games last season. They are a poor wager at 12-1 to win it all.
To say that USC had a strange season would be a gross understatement. They beat Ohio State on the road, but lose to Arizona at home. They lost 4 conference games, but kept their non-con reguar winning streak intact. This season the offense loses 6 starters, but two of those were RB's, where USC is loaded. The line will need some work, and QB Barkey returns. The defense loses 5 starters, and will get hit hard in the safety position. The biggest question mark by far is new HC Lane Kiffin. Can he carry on Pete Carroll's tradition? The schedule features 7 games on the road (a trip to Hawaii) but they get Oregon, Cal, and Notre Dame at home. WAGERING NOTES: USC is a very poor 12-24 ATS in their last 4 years vs conference teams. They are now 27-1 S/U vs non-con teams in their past 7 seasons.
WASHINGTON turned their furtunes around last season, winning 5 games. With QB Locker and 8 other starters retruning, the offense will be very difficult to deal with. The defense returns 7, but may be a bit thin on the line and at LB. The schedule is tough, going to BYU, Oregon, USC and Cal, and hosting Nebraska. Still, HC Sarkisian should return the Huskies to a bowl game in the wild Pac 10. WAGERING NOTES: Washington is 3-10 as road dogs in the past 3 seasons. They are 0-6 S/U and ATS vs Oregon.
Can anyone figure CALIFORNIA out? We can't. This team gets buried by Oregon and USC last year with a healthy Javid Best, then loses him to injury and beats Arizona and Stanford, only th get blown out at Washington and their bowl game. Well, Best, and 5 other starters are gone from an offense that scored 146 points in their first 3 games last year and 6 in their next two. The defense, which as just as hot and cold as the offense was, loses 6 starters. Cal is probably the most inconsistant team in the Pac 10. The non-con schedule is very soft. Who knows where Cal will finish this season in the Pac 10. WAGERING NOTES: Cal is 4-10-1 ATS as away favorites in the past 3 seasons. Cal will post some very attractive odds to win the Pac 10, but they have not done so since 1959.
OREGON STATE was once again, a game away from the Rose Bowl, and once again, they failed to get there. The Rodgers brothers return on offense along with 6 other starters, but State loses both QB's. The defense loses 5 starters. Mike Riley is the best HC in the Pac 10, now that Pete Carroll is gone. The schedule features a non-con game at Boise, but they get Cal, USC, and Oregon at home. Look for another solid effort fro this team, especially if they can find a QB. WAGERING NOTES: Oregon State is a notoriously slow starter under Riley, going 4-17 in their first 3 games of the season during his tenure there. They finish fast, going 10-2 ATS in their last 4 games in the past 3 seasons.
ARIZONA was in the running for the Pac 10 championship last year until losses at Cal and vs Oregon derailed them. Still, their 8 win regular season was the best for them in years. To duplicate that, Arizona will have to depend on an offense that returns 7 starters, but takes a hit depth wise in the line. The defense loses 6 starters and 2 more on the two deep, and needs to develop consistancy. They gave up 17 or less points in 6 games last year, but 28 or more in 6 others. They were dominated by Nebraska to end the season. The schedule features a visit from Iowa, and a trip to Eugene. WAGERING NOTES: Arizona is 2-7 ATS in their last 9 non-con games. They are 12-2 ATS at home agains conference opponents in their last 3 years.
STANFORD finally made it to a bowl game last year, their first since 1999. They lose RB Gerhart and 3 other senoirs on offense, but QB Luck is the real deal. His WR Corps come back intact. The defense, which was a major stumbling block last season, loses 5 starters, and a lot of depth on the line. The schedule features games at Notre Dame, Oregon, Washington and Cal, and has a tough 3 week run, at Notre Dame, at Oregon and hosting USC. If HC Hrbaugh can rebuild the defense, and overcome the loss of Gerhart, Stanford will be a contentender again. WAGERING NOTES: Stanford is 4-8 ATS in non-con games in the past 4 years, 3 of those wins coming against San Jose State. Oddly enough, they are one of only 3 Pac 10 teams that are listed in the "Field" to win NC honors.
UCLA may have finally found the answer to their QB woes in Kevin Prince. If he can stary healthy, he will lead 7 other returning starters on offense. The Bruins get hit hard in the WR department and lose both TE's. On defense, UCLA loses 5 starters and 4 players on the front line. The schedule is not kind, with games at K-State, Texas, Oregon, Cal and Washington. UCLA showed signs of life last year, winning 4 out of their last 5 including their bowl game. If they can stay healthy, expect improvment to continue. WAGERING NOTES: UCLA has not had a losing season ATS since 2003.
ARIZONA STATE HC Erikson will be on the hot seat this year. He loses 6 starters on an offense that failed to produce last season. The defense, which played well at times last year, loses 5 starters and depth. This team lost their last 6 games last year, and scored 21 or less points in 8 games. In a scoring crazy Pac 10, that is not going to cut it. The schedule is very tough, with a run of games at Wisconsin, home to Oregon, at Oregon State, at Washington and at Cal early in the season. Ouch!!! WAGERING NOTES: Arizona State is 10-17 ATS vs conference opponents in Ericksons tenure there. They are predictable spreadwise, going 0-5 vs Oregon, 1-6 vs UCLA, but 6-0 vs Washington of late.
WASHINGTON STATE has won 3 games in the past two years, but there is a light at the end of the tunnell. Wazzu returns 9 starters on offense and 7 on defense. This team has to regroup and win a couple of conference games (1-17 S/U in the past two seasons) to build some confidence. The schedule may not help, with non-con games at Oklahoma State and SMU. WAGERING NOTES: Wazzu is 1-10 ATS before the UCLA game. While not very good, they are not an aotuomatic fade, going 9-17 ATS in the past two seasons.
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