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******************* G-Man's College Plays Week 11.*********************
Last week. 4-4 +0.50 units.
College week 11.
Colorado +18 (-128) (2 units) over Southern Cal.
Buffs were hammered last week by Stanford. As expected, the Cardinals out gained the Buffalos by 200 yards. USC is a different story IMO. Colorado was getting 14 points against Stanford. Now they are getting 18 from USC. Colorado was playing competitively for most of the first half when the wheels fell off. Southern Cal isn’t quit as good as Stanford and this game could finish inside a difference of 10 points. Looking at how these two play against conference opponents, the line here seems inflated by a full 8 points.
Ohio State -16.5 ( 5 units) over Illinois.
Going back early in the season one of my biggest plays was North Carolina -7 over Illinois. That game was in NC. But this game with tOSU is in Illinois and we have a much larger line with this game. Since then, the Illini now has eight injured players either out, questionable or doubtful for this game.
The Buckeyes get J.T. Barrett back at QB for this one. Also probable for this game is W/R Miller, with speed that even a radar detector can’t pick up.
Ill has won 5 games against Purdue, Nebraska, Kent State, Western Illinois and Middle Tenn. They have been hammered by Penn State 39-0, Wisky 24-13, Iowa 29-20 and North Carolina 48-14. The Buckeyes are far better than all of those teams and should blow the Fighting Illini off its home field.
In case the public hasn’t noticed, the Buckeyes are only allowing 13 points per game overall and only 17 against the conference. In Ohio States last 3 games, they allowed a combined 31 points. I expect Illinois to get less than 18.
Maryland +15 (-120) (2 units) over Michigan State.
Terps have played well in the last four games. Although they keep losing, they have made money the last 4. Bettors have cashed ATS. More impressive is that they have covered all 4 against the Big 10.
MSU has slumped this year on defense. Just to make a point here, in MSU’s last 4 games they’ve allowed 28 points per game - all against Big 10 teams.
In Maryland’s last 4, they allowed 38 points per game but 49 of those came against tOSU in Ohio. The Buckeyes are holding opponents to only 13 points per game in Columbus,.
The last four opponents to play MD, are all collectively better than the last 4 that Mich St. played - so this looks like the 5th straight cover for the Terps.
MSU has Ohio State on deck next week at Columbus..
Miami Fla +13 (3 units) over North Carolina.
Canes are on the way up and playing better. NC has failed to cover double digits spreads in 3 of 4 ganmes this season. Tbis is a big revenge game for NC as last year they were beat by the Canes 47-20. I see it staying closer than the number and unless NC coughs up the ball, they should still win, but I wouldn’t be surprised to see an upset.
Mississippi State +8 (-120) ( 4 units) over Alabama
Tide has played 2 road games and none as tough as this one will be. They were lucky to beat Texas A&M because of several turnovers that the Aggies had. Tide is only returning 4 starters on offense from last year and this is the place where that will show up. In 2 road wins for the Tide, they have passed for only 197 yards per game.
In home games for Miss St. they held opponents to 177 yard average in the pasing game. Miss has struggled at times in the run defense, but lately have improved.
For Bama, QB Coker, may not have enough to pull away, so I see this as a 3-pojnt game either way.
Iowa State +14 (-115) over ( 2units) Oklahoma State.
This could be a low scoring game. The 14 points are big in low scoring games. The Cowboys are a different team on the road and they will play like it again in my opinion. They are also looking ahead - to their last 2 games on the season following this game at Iowa State. On deck for Okie State is Baylor and Oklahoma!
Cyclones are good at home and should stay in this one. If the Cyclones score at least 21 points (which should happen) they will get the cover.
Last week Okie State had a huge win over TCU and wil find it hard to get over that win. A let down is common after that game. TCU won the game in the stats, but not on the scoreboard. They out gained OK St. by 200 yards but comminted 5 turnovers giving Okie State the win.
Stanford -10 ( 5units) over Oregon.
Stanford is shaping up like last year’s version of Ohio State. The Cardinals started off the season with a loss to a team they would now blow away (Northwestern). The Buckeyes lost to Virginia Tech and had to wait until this year to kill them.
Oregon has righted the ship a bit with 3 straight wins, but still are not half the team they were with Mariota last year. Line is small here for a team that is rising in Stanford. Ducks get drowned.
Oklahoma +3 (-120) (3 units) over Baylor.
Sooners have the better defense and against the pass they will be able to control the deep passes. Expect key stops, from the Sooner defensive backfield against Bears backup QB, as they only allow opponents to complete only 52% of passes for 179 yards per game away.
Sooner QB Mayfield, will have a big day against the Baylor defense. He is completing 70 % of his passes.
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Originally Posted by shopbar picks
