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Notes for NCAA Tonight
Georgia Southern +7 at App. St.
Georgia Southern won 34-14 at Home vs Appalachian last season as 17 pt favs. Georgia Southern rushed 60 times for 408 yards, and only gave up 74 yds on 22 attempts in last years game.
App. St. QB Tyler Lamb was picked off twice in last years' game and had no TD passes. App. St. have a lot of defensive players back and have continued to improve since mid season of last year.
Last year was both schools first year in the FBS, Georgia Southern went undefeated in the Sun Belt and played some good non conference teams very close.
Despite being an improved and experienced defense, I don't see App St. containing that monster rush attack, the points are an added bonus, in what should be a close game, that I think Georgia Southern can win SU.
I'm also putting a small amount on the ML at +235
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Georgia Southern 13-2 SU L15 games overall.
Georgia Southern 16-7-1 ATS since Sept. 11th 2010.
Georgia Southern 8-4 ATS and 1-11 SU as an Away dog.
Georgia Southern leads nation in Rushing at 2394 yds., 300 more yds than 2nd.
Georgia Southern 2nd to last in nation in Passing offense.
Georgia Southern RB leads the Sun Belt with 875 yds, 10.3 YPC and 11 TDs
Georgia Southern 29 rushing TD's this season.
Georgia Southern 4 RBs in top 13 in Conf.
Georgia Southern is 2nd in the Sun Belt on Defense, giving up 25.2 PPG, 368 YPG.
Georgia Southern 29/70 passing 1 TD, 6 INTS
Appalachian State 11-1 SU L12, only loss was at Clemson.
Appalachian State 8-3-1 ATS L12 games overall.
Appalachian State has the advantage at QB for App St., highest QB rating in the Sun Belt.
Appalachian State RB tied for 2nd in the Sun Belt at YPC 5.9
Appalachian State has the best defense in the Sun Belt, giving up just 11.8 PPG, (5th best of all FBS teams) 281 YPG (9th best of all FBS teams) .
Appalachian State is 13th best out of all FBS teams in Rush yards given up at 654 Total yds.
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East Carolina -3 vs Temple
ECU QB has a completion rate 71.3%
ECU 3rd worst rush D in the AAC, given up 186 RYPG
ECU 4-1-1 ATS this season.
ECU 28-3 SU L31 as Home favorites.
ECU 19-3 SU L22 Home games.
ECU 14-2 SU L16 as Home favorite after a win.
ECU 7-0 SU as Home Fav., after a win as a Home Fav.
ECU 1-4-1 ATS L6,
ECU 0-3 ATS L3 & 3-6 ATS L9 as Home favorite after a win
OVER 7-1 L8 ECU games.
OVER 13-5 L16 ECU Home games.
OVER 9-4 L13 when ECU is Home favorites.
Temple RB leads AAC with 756 yds.
Temple leads the AAC in Defense at 14.7 PPG, and 295 YPG with 11 INTs
Temple 4-2 ATS this season.
Temple 8-2 ATS L10 in an Away game after a Home win.
Temple 11-5 ATS L16 in Away games.
Temple 3-7 SU L10 as Away dog, 1-3 ATS L4 & 8-3 L11.
Temple 0-7 SU as an Away dog after a win as a Home fav.
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California +4 at UCLA
I don't have a play for this game yet, these are just some of my notes. I do lean CAL +4 and even more so on the Under 69 at this point.
Both teams are coming off a loss, a very bad game for Goff and a bad team performance by UCLA. I think both teams could be a little more conservative tonight in this rivarly game and history seems to back that up. Goff might have some trouble throwing against a solid Pac 12 leading, UCLA pass defense, so I expect them to try to run the ball more. On the other side, UCLA has a workhorse RB in Perkins, but CAL has been decent rush defense. At this point I trust the CAL run game a little more than UCLA QB Rosen.
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CAL has better Rush defense at 951 yds. compared to UCLA 1294 yds.
CAL leads PAC 12 in INTs on defense with 13, UCLA has 6.
CAL 6-0 ATS L7 as Away dog.
CAL 7-1 ATS L8 games overall.
CAL 5-2 ATS L7 vs UCLA.
CAL 1-8 SUATS L9 after a loss as an Away dog.
CAL is 4-16 ATS L20 and 3-17 SU after a SU loss.
UNDER 4-1 L5 in series.
UNDER 7-2 L9 CAL games after a loss as an Away dog
UNDER 3-0 L3 CAL games overall & 3-1 L4 Away games.
UNDER 6-0-1 L7 UCLA games and 9-24-1 L34, when they are Home favorites.
UNDER 9-2 L11 in UCLA games after an away loss.
UNDER 14-4 L18 in UCLA games after 2 str8 losses.
UCLA 5-1-1 ATS at Home vs CAL and 8-2 SU L10
UCLA has a work horse RB in Perkins, 6.0 YPC
UCLA isn't very good on 3rd down at 38%, compared to CAL at 44.4%
UCLA 1st in PAC 12 in pass defense by 200 yds.
UCLA has the advantage in the return game.
UCLA 2-6 ATS L8 after a SU loss
UCLA 0-5 ATS L5 after an away loss.
UCLA 0-5 ATS L5 after 2 str8 losses.
UCLA 0-4 ATS L4 as Home favorite.
UCLA leads the all-time series against Cal 51-32-1 SU
UCLA won 37-10 and 31-14 the last two time they met
UCLA 3-15-4 ATS (-5.64 ppg) since Sep 17, 1983 as a home favorite after a loss as a road dog
Both QB's coming off bad games, but Goff > Rosen
Offense = CAL 40.2 PPG & 517 YPG UCLA 34.8 PPG & 462 YPG
Defense = CAL 24.5 PPG & 395 YPG UCLA 27.7 PPG & 392 YPG
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Originally Posted by eddycash
