I am new guy here but will occasionally post a pick or two. In my defense, I actually won money each season the last 4 out of 5 years- I'm guessing most of you can't say that. I don't pick a lot of games as I prefer pro, but I'll post them for your viewing enjoyment. Also, I only post games that I bet myself.
This week:
N.D./Texas under 49
2 questionable QB's with defenses which will be MUCH better this year. N.D. gets back a bunch of D starters that were either suspended or injured last year and Texas D, with Charlie Strong (a very good defensive coach) getting more time to get his Texas team ready in his 2nd year. Add in 1st game of season and teams will be a bit conservative early on, it smells like a 23-17 to me N.D. winning but not covering the 9.5 line.
Pretty easy win to go 1-0 for the season. I typically bet between $200-$300 on these bets but for these purposes, there's no reason to assign a dollar value. Just figure each bet is of equal weight and go from there.
Check back next week for another college winner.
Footnote: Regarding the under 49 pts. bet, I did see that this line opened at 55.5 and dropped to 49 thru the week. This would normally be a cause for concern, but I'm figuring this was a very bad line from the beginning- which you'll often find early in the season. If the same thing happened after the 4th game of the season, I would not have made this bet and just moved on to something else.
This weeks pick.........Notre Dame seems so loaded, deep in many positions with loads of talent. They demolished Texas last week, and seem way better than Virginia. VA was +17.5 point underdog to UCLA and couldn't cover. Now they play at home against a better team and I expect a loss by at least 3 TD's.
This week:
Notre Dame -12 Virginia
I like this bet a lot. I won't be surprised if the line goes to 14 or 14.5 by Saturday.
This weeks pick.........Notre Dame seems so loaded, deep in many positions with loads of talent. They demolished Texas last week, and seem way better than Virginia. VA was +17.5 point underdog to UCLA and couldn't cover. Now they play at home against a better team and I expect a loss by at least 3 TD's. <br>
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This week:<br>
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Notre Dame -12 Virginia<br>
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I like this bet a lot. I won't be surprised if the line goes to 14 or 14.5 by Saturday.<br>
SIDE NOTE: I just logged into Betpop and see the line has already risen to 13. I'd bet it to 13.5 but it hits 14, to be safe, I'd pass and find another game!!! P.S. I think the line opened at 11.5.
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Well, I just check and the line DROPPED to 11 points..........this has become a crazy game and probably now one to stay away from. Big line swings worry me. Since it's only Thurs., I am officially going to change my bet to over 48 in the same game. Better to be safe, than sorry.
Also, I see the line opened at 10, not 11. My only worry actually in this game is how N.D. will respond with it's first road game and the loss of one of it's key RB's. Go with over, it will be easier to win.
You can still get between 11 1/2 and 12 1/2 points all over the internet if you play off shore. This is a tough spot for the Irish. While Virginia gets William and Mary next week, the Irish get Georgia Tech. While the Irish are a much better team, this may be a win and get out situation. Back door possibilities are good here.
It appears Virginia is a "wise-guy" pick and the line has really moved up and down for the game. I just checked and it's back up again to 11.5......Notre Dame is going to score points off of anyone this year so I still like the over as my 2nd college bet of the season.
Glad to say I made the right decision to change my bet to the over in the N.D./VA game......another easy victory so we start the season
2-0. This is a good lesson to learn- when the line swings wildly during the week, walk away and make another bet. I think the line ended up at 13.5 so it swung up and down all week between 10 (opening line) and 13.5. I was told there was big money bet on VA in vegas on either Wed or Thurs morning, and that changed the line around 1.5 pts. It gradually moved up again til this morning.
Week 3...........After Notre Dame lost a key running back in week 1, they lost their starting QB for the year in week 2. The replacement is very young with limited playing experience but has played well when he played. The line opened Georgia Tech -2 at N.D. amd it's risen to G.T. -2.5. I love Georgia Tech- bet it now before it goes higher. So to go to a record of 3-0, the bet is:
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SSHZ College picks for 2015 season.....
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